Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Foreword..........................................................2
Macro Economic Backdrop............................3-5
Union Budget 2016-17................................6-13
Railway Budget 2016-17............................14-16
Airports........................................................... 18
Auto Ancillaries............................................... 19
Automobiles.................................................... 20
Paper.......................................................... 47-48
Cement............................................................ 25
Petrochemicals................................................ 49
Pharmaceuticals.............................................. 50
Coal................................................................. 28
Pipes........................................................... 51-52
Construction............................................... 29-30
Ports................................................................ 53
Consumer Durables......................................... 31
Power......................................................... 54-55
Education......................................................... 32
Fertilizers.................................................... 35-36
SEZ................................................................... 60
Steel................................................................. 61
Textiles........................................................ 64-65
IT and ITES....................................................... 41
Impact Symbols
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Foreword
The much awaited Union Budget for 2016-17 can be treated as being progressive and time appropriate having
announced a raft of measures, policies and reforms catering to nearly all the sections of the economy. The budget
aims at bringing about structural changes that can help transform the countrys economy. The focus on the rural &
social sector and on skill development will help us rightly tap our demographic dividend.
On expected lines the government has continued with a focus on developing infrastructure. The higher public
spending along with the reforms would help stimulate private investments. It is commendable that the government
has been able to rise up to the challenge and adhere to the fiscal consolidation roadmap that it had outlined.
Although the measure and policies are to raise growth, the focus here has been more on sustainable long term
growth which need not necessarily see any significant increases in the immediate future. The measures announced
to strengthen and deepen the corporate bond markets are hugely welcome and will go a long way in facilitating
infrastructure financing. It is hence quite encompassing.
We have analyzed here the implications of the measures announced today at both the macro and micro levels to
provide a complete picture of what the Budget means to us. A detailed sectoral analysis has been provided for
critical sectors. We trust that you will find this useful. We would also welcome any feedback from our readers.
With best wishes
D R Dogra
MD & CEO - CARE Ratings
Macro-Economic Backdrop
Economic Survey for the year 2015-16 shows that Indias economic growth has been steady and robust in 2015-16 as in 201415, despite being faced with a volatile and weak external environment. The countrys economy is seen to be amongst the most
stable and amongst the best performing, helped by the moderation in inflation, governments fiscal consolidation measures
and expenditure incurred towards building infrastructure. The survey although optimistic about the economic potential and
opportunities, brings to the fore the challenges faced by the country in sustaining growth in a worsening global economic
landscape. It also calls attention to the need for planning for the risks that could impact growth viz. currency re-adjustment in
Asia and capital controls that could be undertaken to curb outflows from emerging markets.
The survey sees the long term growth potential of the country at 8-10%, that can be achieved by promoting competition,
investing in health and education to reap the benefits of Indias demographics and focus on the agriculture sector.
The key highlights of the survey in terms of performance, initiatives undertaken, challenges & proposed strategy and prospects
have been summarized here
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
5.6
6.6
7.2
7.6
Inflation (WPI)
7.4
6.0
2.0
-2.8*
Inflation (CPI)
10.2
9.5
5.9
4.9*
Savings rate
33.8
33
33
n.a
Capital Formation
38.6
34.7
34.2
n.a
4.8
1.7
1.3
1.4#
292.0
304.2
341.6
349.6*
Export
-1.8
4.7
-1.3
-17.6*
Import
0.3
-8.3
-0.5
-15.5*
CAD
Forex Reserves ($ bn)
Source: Economic Survey 2015-16, *up to Jan16, ^upto Dec15 #until H1FY16
Service delivery - The increased decentralisation of power between centre and state requires clear definition of roles
between centre and state. Focus of centre to be on strengthening regulatory institutions, and facilitating co-operative and
competitive federal structure.Focus of states to be to mobilize resources, improve efficiency in bettering service delivery.
Agriculture - need to create a self-sustaining system with reduced vulnerability to erratic monsoons, market shocks and
variable productivity.
Key Highlights
The 2016-17 Union Budget is based on 9 pillars. The key announcements under each have been included here.
(1) Agriculture and Farmers Welfare:
There has been a significant increase in the allocations towards agriculture and irrigation.
Allocation of Rs. 35,984 crore towards Agriculture and Farmers welfare.
28.5 lakh hectares will be brought under irrigation and fast tracking of 89 irrigation projects.
Long Term Irrigation Fund to be created in NABARD with an initial corpus of about Rs.20,000 crore.
Unified Agricultural Marketing e-Platform to provide a common e- market platform for wholesale markets.
Rs.15,000 crore towards interest subvention.
Incentives are being given for enhancement of pulses production. Rs.500 crore under National Food Security Mission has
been assigned to pulses.
The target for agricultural credit in 2016-17 will be an all-time high of Rs.9 lakh crore.
Rs.5,500 crore towards Crop Insurance Scheme.
(2) Rural Sector:
Rs.87,765 crore allocation for the rural sector.
Rs.2.87 lakh crore will be given as Grant in Aid to Gram Panchayats and Municipalities. as per the recommendations of the
14th Finance Commission.
Rs.38,500 crore allocated for MGNREGS.
100% village electrification by 1st May, 2018.
National Land Record Modernisation Programme has been revamped.
Every block under drought and rural distress to be taken up as an intensive Block under the DeenDayalAntyodaya Mission.
Rs.9,000 crore allocation for Swachh Bharat Abhiyan.
New derivative products will be developed by SEBI in the Commodity Derivatives market.
Enactment of a comprehensive law to deal with resolution of financial firms
Financial Data Management Centre to be set up.
RBI to facilitate retail participation in Government securities.
Statutory basis for a Monetary Policy framework and a Monetary Policy Committee.
General Insurance Companies owned by the Government to be listed in the stock exchanges.
(7) Governance and Ease of Doing Business
Bill for Targeted Delivery of Financial and Other Subsidies, Benefits and Services by using the Aadhar framework to be
introduced.
Direct Benefit Transfer for fertilizer
Automation facilities will be provided in 3 lakh fair price shops by March 2017.
Amendments in Companies Act to improve enabling environment for start-ups.
Price Stabilisation Fund with a corpus of Rs.900 crore to help maintain stable prices of Pulses.
(8) Fiscal Discipline
Fiscal deficit targets retained: 2015-16(Revised Estimate) at 3.9% and 2016-17(Budget Estimate)at 3.5%.
Revenue Deficit reduced to 2.5% in 2015-16(RE) from 2.8%.
Total expenditure projected at Rs.19.78 lakh crore- Plan expenditure of Rs.5.50 lakh crore and Non-Plan expenditure of
Rs.14.28 lakh crore.
1500 Central Plan Schemes rationalised and restructured into nearly 300 Central Sector and 30 Centrally Sponsored
Schemes.
(9) Tax Reforms
The Tax Reforms in the FY15 Union Budget were developed on nine categories namely, Relief to small tax payers, measures to
boost growth and employment generation, incentivizing domestic value addition to help Make in India, measures for moving
towards a pensioned society, measures for promoting affordable housing, additional resource mobilization for agriculture, rural
economy and clean environment, reducing litigation and providing certainty in taxation, simplification and rationalization of
taxation and use of Technology for creating accountability.
As a part of relief to small tax payers, the government proposes for individuals with income less than 5 lakh, the ceiling of
tax rebate under section 87A to be increased from Rs.2,000 to Rs.5,000. The government also proposes to increase the
limit of deduction in respect of rent paid under section 80GG to Rs.60,000 p.a
In order to boost growth and employment generation, the government proposed to reduce corporate tax in a phased
manner, incentives provided for new manufacturing companies and SMEs in the form of lower corporate tax, 100%
deduction of profits for 3 out of 5 years for start-ups set up during April 2016 to March 2019, implementation of GAAR
from April 2017 and complete pass through of income tax to securitization trusts including trusts of ARCs.
In order to promote make in India, suitable changes in customs and excise duty rates on certain inputs, raw materials,
intermediaries and components and certain other goods and simply procedures to reduce costs and improve competitiveness
of the domestic industry
In an attempt to move towards a pensioned society, the government proposes to exempt from service tax the Annuity
services provided by NPS and services provided by EPFO to employees
To promote affordable housing, the government proposes to give deduction to first time home buyers for additional interest
of Rs.50,000 p.a for loans up to Rs.35 lakh sanctioned during FY17 for value of house less than Rs.50 lakh, exempt service
8
tax on construction of affordable houses up to 60 square metres under any scheme of the centre or state government
including PPP schemes
Rate of securities transaction tax in case of options proposed to increase from 0.17% to 0.05%, imposing of cess called
KrishiKalyan cess @0.5% on all taxable services, levying of infrastructure cess of 1% on small petrol, LPG, CNG cars, 2.5% on
diesel cars of certain capacity and 4% on other higher engine capacity vehicles and SUVs, increasing excise duty on various
tobacco products from 10% to 15%
In an attempt to remove black money from the economy, the government proposes no penalty in respect to income tax
cases with disputed tax up to Rs.10 lakh will be levied, cases with disputed tax exceeding Rs.10 lakh subjected to 25% of
the minimum of the imposable penalty for both direct and indirect taxes. The penalty for concealing of income to be 50%
of tax in case of underreporting of income and 200% of tax where there is misreporting of facts
As a part of rationalising of tax reforms, the government proposes to abolish 13 cesses, levied by various Ministries in
which revenue collection is less than Rs.50 crore in a year
In matters pertaining to Income-tax Act, Government will pay interest at the rate of 9% p.a against normal rate of 6% p.a
in case there is delay in giving effect to Appellate order beyond ninety days. The government also proposes to change the
procedure to provide for a shift from physical control to record based control for customs bonded warehouses, supported
by sophisticated IT systems
Budget Financial
Summary of Accounts
Rs. Crore
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16 (RE)
FY17(BE)
Revenue Receipts
879,232
1,014,724
1,101,472
1,206,084
1,377,022
741,877
815854
903,615
947,508
1,054,101
137,354
198870
197,857
258,576
322,921
Capital Receipts
582,152
563,894
562,201
579,307
601,038
Recovery of Loans
15,060
12,497
13,738
18,905
10,634
25,890
29,368
37,737
25,313
56,500
467,356
453,550
445,138
401,929
425,181
7,201
7,292
12,933
11,485
19,094
Total Receipts
1,410,372
1,578,618
1,663,673
1,785,391
1,978,060
Revenue Expenditure
1,243,514
1,371,772
1,466,992
1,547,673
1,731,037
Interest Payments
313,170
374,254
402,444
442,620
492,670
Subsidies
257,079
254,632
258,258
257,801
250,433
69,479
74,896
93,611
95,731
123,368
166,858
187,675
196,681
237,718
247,023
1,410,372
1,559,447
1,663,673
1,785,391
1,978,060
Pensions
Capital Expenditure
Total Expenditure
Revenue Deficit
365,896
357,048
365,519
341,589
354,015
Fiscal Deficit
490,597
502,858
510,725
535,090
533,904
177,428
128,604
108,281
92,469
41,234
Primary Deficit
Receipts
The government has been experiencing slowdown in the growth rate of total receipts. Over the years, the growth in total
receipts of the Centre has moderated from 11.9% in FY14 to 5.3% in FY15 and 7.3% in FY16 (RE). The same is expected to
increase to 10.8% in FY17 (BE). There has been a moderate shift in the composition of the overall Receipts Budget over the last
few years. While the share of revenue receipts rose from 58% in FY12 to 66% in FY16 (RE) that of capital receipts has declined
from 44% in FY12 to 36% in FY16 (RE).
9
It needs to be noted that although the growth rates have moderated, the government collected higher receipts in FY16 than it
budgeted for owing to higher revenue receipts viz. tax collections.
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16(RE)
FY17(BE)
1,036,234
1,138,734
1,244,885
1,459,611
1,630,888
9,988,540
11,345,056
12,488,205
13,567,192
15,065,010
10.4
10.0
10.0
10.8
10.8
FY14
FY15
FY16(RE)
FY17(BE)
Interest Receipts
Rs. Crore
20,761
21,868
23,803
23,142
29,620
53,761
90,435
89,833
118,271
123,780
13,354
25,921
31,692
44,366
53,883
40,406
64,513
58,141
73,905
69,897
Spectrum Sale
The Government in FY13, FY14 and FY15 could not meet the target to be earned through Spectrum sale. The actual figures
stood markedly lower than the budgeted estimates. However, in FY16 the government surpassed its budget estimates. The
Centre earned Rs.57,384 crore in FY16 (RE) while it had budgeted for Rs.42,866 crore.
The Government has projected a total of Rs.98,995 crore to be garnered through the Spectrum sale in FY17.
Rs. Crore
Budgeted
Actual / Revised
FY13
58,217
18,902
FY14
43,162
40,847
FY15
45,471
30,624
FY16
42,866
57,384
FY17
98,995
Disinvestment
The Disinvestment target for FY17 is set at Rs.56,500 crore, of which Rs.20,500 crore is to be collected through strategic
disinvestments. However, in the past years it is seen that the Centre has been unable to meet the budgeted disinvestment
target. In FY16, the revised figures indicate that the government was only able to achieve 36% of the projected target at the
start of the year. It remains to be seen if the optimistic target is realized in FY16.
However, the government has got in place a new policy for management of Government investment in PSEs, including
disinvestment and strategic sale. The NITI Aayogwill identify the CPSEs for strategic sale. The government also plans to adopt
10
a comprehensive approach for efficient management of Government investment in CPSEs by addressing issues such as capital
restructuring, dividend, bonus shares, etc.
RsCrore
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16 (RE)
FY17 (BE)
Total Disinvestment
25,890
29,367
37,737
25,313
56,500
Disinvestment Receipts
25,890
16,027
32,620
25,313
36,000
14,000
3,000
15,000
3,000
Strategic Disinvestment
20,500
Others
1,814
5,119
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16(RE)
FY17(BE)
558,000
564,147
590,345
585,000
600,000
90,644
110,597
145,208
183,071
174,819
467,356
453,550
445,138
401,929
425,181
Expenditure
Total Budget expenditure is projected to increase by 10.7% in FY17 compared to that in FY16 (RE).
Total Plan expenditure has seen a steep rise of 15.3% for FY17(BE) in comparison to FY16(RE). Although non-plan expenditure
accounts for more than 70% of total expenditure, it is only 9.2% higher in FY17 (BE) vis--vis FY16 (RE). Consequently, the share
of non-plan expenditure declined in FY17 (BE).
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16(RE)
FY17(BE)
Rs Cr
996,747
1106,120
1201,029
1308,194
1428,050
Interest payments
313,170
374,254
402,444
442,620
492,670
Subsidies
257,079
254,632
258,258
257,801
250,433
Pensions
69,479
74,896
93,611
95,731
123,368
413,625
453,327
462,644
477,197
550,010
Plan Expenditure
Revenue
Capital
Total Expenditure
Revenue
Capital
329,208
352,732
357,597
335,004
403,628
84,417
100,595
105,047
142,192
146,382
1,410,372
1,559,447
1,663,673
1,785,391
1,978,060
1,243,514
1,371,772
1,466,992
1,547,673
1,731,037
166,858
187,675
196,681
237,718
247,024
In terms of revenue and capital accounts, the share of revenue account in total expenditure continues to remain more than 87%
since last five years. The growth in total revenue expenditure has doubled for FY17(BE) at 11.9% compared with 5.5% growth in
FY16(RE). This has only led to increasing share of revenue expenditure in total expenditure. The substantial increase in revenue
expenditure can be in part be attributed to the centres expenditure towards fulfilling 7th Pay Panel recommendations and
disbursements towards defence personnels (OROP scheme).
11
Capital expenditure, on the other hand has seen its growth rate decline from 20.9% in FY16(RE) to a mere 3.9% in FY17(BE). This
has led to a further decline in share of capital expenditure from 13% in FY16(RE) to 12.5% FY17(BE).
Interest Payments
Rs Cr
Interest Payments
Effective Interest Rate (%)
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16(RE)
FY17(BE)
313,170
374,254
402,444
442,620
492,670
6.5
6.9
6.42
6.62
Interest payments account for around 25% of the total expenditure and 35% of non-plan expenditure.Growth in Interest
payments declined from 19.5% in FY14 to 7.5% in FY15 but has been increasing constantly since then. They are expected
to increase by 11.3% in FY17(BE) over 10% in FY16(RE). The Effective interest rate defined interest payments to outstanding
liabilities.
Subsidies
Rs Cr
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16(RE)
FY17(BE)
Subsidies
257,079
254,632
258,258
257,801
250,433
Major Subsidies
247,493
244,717
249,016
241,857
231,782
Food Subsidy
85,000
92,000
117,671
139,419
134,835
Fertilizer Subsidy
65,613
67,339
71,076
72,438
70,000
Petroleum Subsidy
96,880
85,378
60,269
30,000
26,947
Interest Subsidies
7,270
8,137
7,632
13,808
15,523
Other Subsidies
2,316
1,778
1,610
2,136
3,128
The expenditure on major subsidies is projected to decline from 2% of GDP in FY15 to 1.8% of GDP in FY16(RE) and further
to 1.5% of GDP in FY17(BE) with focused subsidy reforms. Subsidy bill for FY17(BE) is expected to decline by 2.86%,attributed
in part to the lower petroleum and fertilizer subsidy bill.A substantial decline of 50.2% was seen in petroleum subsidy for
FY16(RE). Although, the subsidies are still falling, it has moderated to 10.2% for FY17(BE).Food subsidy attributes to more than
50% of governments total subsidy bill. It is estimated that subsidy towards this end is expected to fall by 3.3% in FY17(BE).
Fertilizer Subsidy is also expected decline by 3.4% in FY17(BE) with successful implementation of Nutrient Based Subsidy
regime. Interest subsidies account for 6.2% of the total subsidy bill is expected to increase by 12.4% in FY17(BE) after having
increased by 81% in FY16(RE) . The high interest subsidy may be attributed towards governments initiatives to ease loan
burden of farmers through interest subvention.
Defence Expenditure
Rs Cr
Defence Expenditure
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16(RE)
FY17(BE)
181,776
203,499
218,694
224,636
249,099
Defence Expenditure which accounts for nearly 13% of the expenditure since FY13 is expected to increase by sharp 11% in
FY17(BE). The increased defence expenditure comes in line with abolishment of custom duties on goods imported for Defence
purposes by the Central and State governments.
Total expenditure which is expected to increase by Rs.192,669 crore in FY17(BE) over FY16(RE) is heavily directed towards
agriculture sector , social schemes, welfare of Scs/STs and minorities, women and child development, employment generation
and revival of banking system through recapitalization of public banks.
The focus of the government is pro-poor as it introduces Crop Insurance schemes for farmers , increases allocation towards
MNREGA and initiate developing Rurban clusters. The government has given emphasis to tapping the demographic dividend
12
of the country by allocating increasing sums towards education, skill development and focus on job creation. Addressing the
need for developing roads and railways which would help boost both agricultural and manufacturing segment of the country an
allocation of Rs.21.8 lakh crore has been made out of governments capital expenditure towards this end.
Debt
Rscr
Public Debt
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15 (A)
FY16 (RE)
FY17(BE)
3,400,710
3,941,855
4,425,348
4,935,805
5,520,635
6,029,869
Internal Debt
3,230,622
3,764,566
4,240,767
4,738,291
5,311,636
5,801,776
External Debt
170,088
177,289
184,581
197,514
208,998
228,093
Other Liabilities
1,116,542
1,128,747
1,244,833
1,306,716
1,371,579
1,408,613
Total Debt
4,517,252
5,070,601
5,670,181
6,242,221
68,91,914
74,38,181
45.7
45.9
46
46.8
47.6
47.1
Public debt for FY17 is estimated to increase by 9.2% to Rs.6,029,869 crore lower than 11.8% growth in FY16 (RE). Of the
total public debt, the internal debt accounts for more than 96% at Rs. 5,801,776crore. The share of external debt has been
moderating gradually from 5% in FY12 to 3.8% in FY16(RE). In FY17, the outstanding external debt stock is estimated to grow
by 9.1% to Rs.228,093 crore. The other liabilities are estimated to increase by 2.7% to Rs.1,408,613 crore in FY17(BE). The debt
to GDP ratio has been increasing gradually over the past few years, rising to a high 47.6% in FY16(RE). It is targeted to decline
marginally to 47.1% in FY17 (BE) with an expectation of improving Gross domestic product.
Bond Markets
The budget had provided a boost to the domestic corporate bond markets. Various measures have been announced to deepen
and strength the corporate bond markets. These measures will make the bond market an attractive alternate source of funding
and investment at a time when the formal banking sector is stressed.
The RBI is to issue guidelines to encourage large borrowers to access a certain portion of their financing needs through the
bond markets. Assuming large exposures are Rs.100 crore and above, even if 10% of these are to migrate to the corporate
bond markets , the incremental funds raised in the bond markets would be Rs.4 lakh crore over a period of time.
Recognizing the peculiar requirements and quantum of funds for infrastructure, the budget has announced the development
of a new credit rating system for infrastructure projects that would enable arriving at an appropriate pricing cost that is
beneficial for both lenders and borrowers. Also, LIC of India is to set up a dedicated fund to provide credit enhancement to
infrastructure projects. These funds will help in raising the credit rating of bonds floated by infrastructure companies and
facilitate investment from long term investors. During the period Apr-Jan 2015-16, around Rs.75,000 crore of bonds were
raised by infrastructure projects, assuming that 10% of these get a credit enhancement, this market could be of the size of
Rs.7,500 crore.
Indicating the governments growing reliance on the bond markets for financing infrastructure, in FY17, Rs.31,300 crore of
funds for infrastructure projects is to be raised by government agencies such as NHAI, PFC, REC, IREDA, NABARD and Inland
Water Authority.
To attract foreign portfolio investments, the investment basket of these investors will be expanded to include unlisted debt
securities and pass through securities issued by securitisation SPVs.
For dissemination of information pertaining to the corporate bond markets, a complete information repository for
corporate bonds, covering both primary and secondary market segments will be developed jointly by RBI and SEBI.
Also, a framework for an electronic platform for repo market in corporate bonds will be developed by RBI.
13
Highlights:
No changes in passenger fares and freight rates
Capital expenditure pegged at Rs.1.21 lakh crore
Target to electrify 2,000 km
Finalized bids for two locomotive factories
Commissioning of 2,500 kms broad gauge lines
North-South, East-West dedicated freight corridor proposed
400 stations to be re-developed through PPP
100 railway stations to be equipped with WIFI
Logistics and warehouse parks to be created on PPP mode
Holding company to be explored for monetizing assets of Railway companies
Railways will generate employment for 9 crore man days in FY18 and 14 crore in FY19
Direct procurement of diesel to help save Rs.1,500 crore in FY17
Time-table freight container train to be run on pilot basis
17,000 bio toilets and additional toilets at 475 stations will be provided
Capacity building for the future through transparency, governance, internal audit measures and partnerships
Introducing 1,780 automatic ticket vending machines, mobile apps & GoIndia smartcard for cashless purchases of UTS and
PRS tickets
Security through helplines & CCTVs
Improving of customer interface
Pension Outgo budgeted at Rs.45,500 crore
Market borrowing pegged at Rs.20,000 crore
14
Financial Performance
Rs. Crore
Freight Earnings
Passenger Earnings
FY15
FY16 (RE)
FY17 (BE)
105,791
111,853
117,933
42,190
45,376
51,012
Other Coaching
3,998
4,325
6,185
Sundry Earnings
5,093
6,230
9,590
Suspense
Gross Traffic Receipts
(361)
50
100
156,711
167,784
184,820
7.1
10.2
% growth
Miscellaneous Receipts
4,307
3,971
4,451
161,017
171,805
189,271
7,775
5,500
3,200
28,642
33,220
45,500
7,975
5,700
3,400
105,996
110,690
123,560
4.4
11.6
161,017
171,805
189,271
9,148
8,470
9,706
Surplus balance
7,665
11,402
8,479
91.3
90.5
92.0
Total Receipts
Ordinary Working Expenses
Pension outgo
Appropriation to DRF
Total Working expenses
% growth
Total Expenditure
Operating Ratio %
Source: Indian Railways
The Railway budget is based on the assumption of high revenue buoyancy in the economy as the rates and tariffs have
not been changed.
Gross traffic receipts- The Rail Minister has targeted 10.2% growth in the gross traffic receipts to achieve Rs.117,933 crore
for FY17 which would be mostly driven by strong 12.4% growth in passenger fare earnings to Rs.51,012 crore. Given that
there has been no change in fare rates, it may be expected that the number of passenger kms would increase during the
year.It needs to be noted that the earning per passenger km is expected to increase from Rs.0.40 in FY16 (RE) to Rs.0.45 in
FY17 (BE). The freight earnings are targeted to increase by 5.4% to Rs.117,933 crore in FY15 which would be due increase
in overall volumes. The average freight rate per net tonne km is expected to increase marginally from Rs.1.67 in FY16 (RE)
to Rs.1.69 in FY17 (BE). Looking at the same commodity wise, the average freight rate per net tonne km in FY17 for coal is
expected at Rs.1.79 while for pig iron and iron ore it is expected at Rs.1.55 and Rs.1.96 respectively.
Expenses- Total expenditure is expected to increase by 10.2% in FY17 as against 6.7% in FY16 (RE). The increase in total
expenditure is mainly on account of staff costs to meet the impact of 7th pay commission.
o Working expenses are to increase at a higher rate of 11.6% relative to gross receipts, most of this increase is attributed to
provident fund, pension & other retirement benefits which is expected to grow by 37%, followed general superintendence
and services at 30% and repairs & maintenance of permanent ways and works at 25%.
Operating ratio during the FY17 is expected to increase to 92% from 90.5% in FY16 (RE)
Budget Implications
The deterioration of the operating ratio will restrict capital expenditure, resulting in lower surplus on the books.
Passenger friendly measures such as e-ticketing system, e-ticketing through mobile phones, free Wi-Fi facilities, CCTVS
to monitor stations, automatic ticket vending machines, mobile apps & GoIndia smartcard for cashless purchases of UTS
and PRS tickets have been proposed. These initiatives will largely have a positive impact on various sectors particularly
information technology (IT), telecommunication and engineering.
15
The modernization of the railways through induction of technology will also help eliminate corruption and bring in more
efficiency into the system. Also, commissioning of broad gauge lines will positively boost the demand for industries such
as steel, aluminum cables, electrical equipment, etc.
Introduction of time-table freight container train and no increase in freight rates will improve movement of freight and
also help in migrating traffic from roads to railways
The partial funding of railways by market borrowings of Rs.20,000 crore in FY17, would lead to an increase in activity in
the corporate bond market.
16
Airlines
Industry Snapshot:
Currently Air India, Jet Airways, Spice Jet, GoAir, Indigo, Air Costa, Air Asia, Vistara, Air Pegasus and Trujet together control
the domestic air travel market in India.
As per DGCA, in CY15, Indigo had a market share of 36.7% in the domestic air travel (in terms of passenger carried) followed
by Jet Airways which commanded 22.5% market share, while Air India and Spice Jet had a market share of 16.4% and 11.6%,
respectively in CY15.
The total air passenger traffic(including domestic and international passenger)for FY15 on a y-o-y basis showed a jump of
12.5% and the same for April 2015-November 2015 period showed a jump of 17.04%
Impact on Companies
Company
Jet Airways
Spice Jet
Interglobe Aviation
Impact
Comments
+
+
+
17
Airports
Industry Snapshot:
The airport sector has been opened to private sector in the last decade. This has fuelled growth in passenger and cargo
handling capacity. Total passenger handling capacity of airports increased from 72 mn in FY06 to 272 mn in FY15 and the
total cargo handling capacity of airports was at 6.2 mn tonnes per annum in FY15.
As per the Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2012-2017), total investment in the airport sector is expected to be Rs.87,714 crore, which
is expected to further augment airport infrastructure across the country.
The total air passenger traffic (including domestic and international passenger) for FY15 on a y-o-y basis showed a jump of
12.5% for April 2015-November 2015 period showed a jump of 17.04%.
Impact on Companies
Company
GMR Infrastructure Ltd.
GVK Power & Infrastructure Ltd.
Impact
Comments
=
=
While these players presently operate only at major airports they may
be benefited through probable participation in the development of nonfunctional airstrips.
18
Auto Ancillaries
Industry Snapshot:
The automobile component sales grew by 11 per cent on year-on-year basis in FY15 to Rs.2.34 lakh crore, largely on account
of improvement in two/three wheeler and passenger vehicle segments post subdued period across the segments over
FY12-FY14. The auto component industry contributes around 3.8% to the countrys GDP providing direct employment to 1.5
million people. The revival is likely to continue albeit at slower pace in FY16 on account of increase in demand of commercial
vehicles and a reasonable uptick in sales of passenger cars which are the key demand drivers for auto components from
automobile manufacturers. Additionally, the increase in localisation levels in the vehicles manufactured in India is likely
to reduce costs thereby auguring well for auto component manufacturers. The demand from the replacement market is
expected to remain weak for the organized sector since the replacement market is dominated by the counterfeit auto parts
from unorganised sector and cheap imports. With the likely adoption of new standards of emission norms, the substantial
investment shall be required by auto ancillaries segment to complement the Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs).
Duty Structure
Customs Duty (%)
Before
After
Impact
7.5
7.5
10
10
10
10
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
Before
After
Impact
12
12
12
12
12
12
Impact on Companies
Company
Bharat Forge Ltd.
Bosch Ltd.
Sona Koyo Steering Systems Ltd.
Exide Industries Ltd.
Motherson Sumi Ltd
Impact
Comments
=
=
=
=
=
19
Automobiles
Industry Snapshot:
The Indian auto industry is one of the largest in the world with an annual production of 23.37 million vehicles in FY15 ie
growth of 8.68 per cent over the last year. During FY15, two-wheeler segments and passenger vehicle contributed to the
overall growth. Besides, India is also a prominent auto exporter and growth was also on account of increase in export to
certain extent. The auto industry contributes around 7.1% to countrys GDP providing employment to 29 million people
and contributes 13% to excise revenue for the Government. The overall growth in FY16 is likely to remain flat with the
exception of few segments such as commercial vehicle which is likely to witness uptick on account of expected improvement
in the overall macroeconomic conditions. Besides, the investment in order to develop vehicles with the improved emission
standards and competitive market is likely to pose challenge for the players.
Duty Structure
Customs Duty (%)
Before
After
Impact
Passenger Cars
Small Cars*
Old
105
105
New
100
100
Two Wheelers
Old
New
105
60 (75^)
105
60 (75^)
Commercial Vehicles
Old
40
40
New
40
40
Before
After
Impact
12.5
12.5
=
=
Mid-size Cars@
24
24
Large Cars#
27
27
=
=
SUV
30
30
Buses
12.5
12.5
Trucks
12.5
12.5
=
=
Two-wheeler
12.5
12.5
Three-wheeler
12.5
12.5
Hybrid Vehicles
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
Note:
*Indicates cars which have engine capacity less than 1,500cc in case of diesel and 1,200cc in case of petrol and length less than 4 meters.
@ Indicates cars which have engine capacity less than 1,500cc in case of diesel and 1,200cc in case of petrol and length more than 4 meters.
#indicates cars having engine capacity more than 1,500cc in case of diesel cars and 1,200cc in case of petrol and length exceeding 4 meters.
Definition of SUV as per central excise department is a vehicle with engine capacity greater than 1,500cc, length exceeding 4000mm and
ground clearance 170 mm and above
^75% Custom duty is applicable for two-wheeler having engine capacity greater than 800cc
Impact on Companies
Company
Maruti Suzuki Ltd
Ashok Leyland Ltd
Hero Motocorp Ltd
Bajaj Auto Ltd.
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd
Impact
=
+
+
=
Comments
With proposed levy of infrastructure cess, luxury tax primarily on the four-wheeler
passenger vehicles, the budget shall have negative impact on OEMs such as Maruti
Suzuki Ltd in the short term.
For other categories of passenger vehicles barring two-wheelers segment and
commercial vehicles, the impact is neutral with no change in duties.
20
Bank Board Bureau has already been formed and its effective
functioning will ensure better corporate governance in PSU
banks.
21
22
Over the last few years many new HFCs with a focus on affordable housing have started operations. The governments thrust
on providing housing to all by 2022 coupled with significant housing shortages in the low cost and affordable housing is likely
to fuel credit growth in the segment. In addition, various NHB schemes and tax incentives provided to individuals on housing
loans continue to remain positive for the sector. HFCs are expected to maintain their good profitability on the basis of strong
business growth and stable asset quality over the medium term.
23
24
Cement
Industry Snapshot:
India is the second-largest cement producer in the world. Cement production increased at a CAGR of 6.7% to 270 million
tonnes over FY07FY15. Housing and real estate sector is considered to be the largest driver of cement demand in India,
which held approximately two-third total cement consumption, followed by infrastructure sector. Cement production grew
by 5.6% in FY15 as compared with 3.1 % in FY14. The growth was supported low base effect and delayed monsoon in the
first half of the year. During the second half, the demand was impacted by low government spending, slow down in real
estate activities and low rural demand. The trend continued in 9MFY16 also with a meagre growth of 2.2% in cement
production.
Going forward, focus of the Government on strengthening infrastructure including road sector, development of smart cities
and promotion of low-cost housing and expected revival in the overall economic growth is expected to result in improved
growth prospects for the cement sector. Moreover, fall in diesel prices and coal and pet coke prices will provide some respite
to the cement industry on the cost front.
Duty Structure
Customs Duty (%)
Before
After
Impact
2.5%/10%
10%
2.5%
2.5%
200
400
Raw Materials
Basic Custom Duty on
- Coal
- Lignite
Clean Energy Cess on coal (Rs./tonne)
Impact on Companies
Company
Ultratech Cement Ltd
Ambuja Cements Ltd
J. K. Cement Ltd
J K Lakshmi Cement Ltd
Impact
Comments
+
+
+
+
Higher outlay and focus on infrastructure, housing and rural development are
likely to boost the cement demand in the long-term, which in turn will benefit the
companies in the sector.
25
Chlor Alkali
Industry Snapshot:
The Chlor-alkali industry is a sub-segment of basic chemicals industry (inorganic), accounting for about 70% of the total
basic chemicals production and 65% of the total installed capacity of chemicals in India (during FY15). Chlor-alkali industry
mainly comprises caustic soda, soda ash, chlorine, hydrogen and hydrochloric acid. Production of caustic soda and soda ash
together account for about 74% of the total Chlor-alkali industry.
Caustic soda and chlorine are produced together in the ratio of 1:0.88 (also known as Electrochemical Unit or ECU) through
electrolysis of salt. On account of their co-production, the market dynamics for caustic soda and chlorine are heavily
influenced by each other. Caustic soda finds application mainly in alumina, textiles, paper, organic, inorganic, soaps &
detergents industries, etc. Chlorine is very important for manufacturing PVC. It is also used in disinfection of drinking water
in the pharmaceutical industry and various other chemical industries. During FY08-15, the caustic soda consumption grew
at a CAGR of 3.6%. Whereas caustic soda production has increased at a CAGR of 2.3% and imports grew substantially at a
CAGR of 16.1% during the same period.
In India, soda ash is produced by synthetic process using salt as raw material. Soda ash is mainly available in two forms
light soda ash and dense soda ash. Light soda ash has a share of approximately 60% in total soda ash production. Soda ash is
extensively used in the production of glass, soap & detergents, chemicals, silicates and some other industries. During FY0815, soda ash consumption grew at a CAGR of 4.7%, whereas its production increased at a CAGR of 3% resulting in substantial
growth of imports at CAGR of 13.1% during the same period.
Rising imports mainly attributed to excessive dumping of cheap imports due to disparity between the domestic and
international prices is one of the threats for the Chlor Alkali industry.
Duty Structure
Customs Duty (%)
Before
After
Impact
Caustic Soda
7.5
7.5
Soda Ash
7.5
7.5
Chlorine
7.5
7.5
Hydrogen
7.5
7.5
Hydrochloric Acid
7.5
7.5
=
=
=
=
2.5
Nil
Before
After
Impact
Caustic Soda
Flakes
Lye
12.5
12.5
12.5
12.5
Soda Ash
12.5
12.5
Chlorine
12.5
12.5
Hydrogen
12.5
12.5
Hydrochloric Acid
12.5
12.5
=
=
=
=
26
Impact on Companies
Company
Impact
Comments
=
=
=
=
No major impact
27
Coal
Industry Snapshot:
Indian coal Industrys domestic production/off-take stood at 599/582 MT (Coal India Limited (CIL)+Singareni Collieries
Company Limited (SCCL) + Captive) in FY15. Against this the demand for coal stood at 840 MT in FY15 resulting in deficit of
29% which was met through import. CARE Ratings expects Indian coal production to reach 652 MT/681 MT (base case) in
FY16E/FY17E. For 10MFY16, CILs production grew at 9.6% YoY to 426 MT, while growth in off-take was 9.8% YoY to 438 MT.
The demand of coal is expected to grow to 884 MT in FY17E.
Duty Structure
Customs Duty (%)
Before
After
Impact
Non-Coking Coal
2.50
2.50
Met coke
2.50
5.00
Rs.200/tonne
Rs.400/tonne
=
=
=
Impact on Companies
Company
Coal India Ltd.
Impact
Comments
Since energy cess is pass-through, the company would not be impacted.
28
Construction
Industry Snapshot:
Construction industry, the second largest employment generator in the economy after agriculture, is integral to support
Indias growing need for infrastructure and industrial development. The growth of the industry is directly correlated to the
growth of gross domestic product (GDP). In the last 10 years, construction as a percentage of GDP has been around 7-8%.
The industry witnessed a slowdown in the last couple of years, mainly on account of slowdown in the economy, delay in
project awarding and execution due to environmental clearance hurdles, aggressive bidding by players, lack of funding, land
acquisition issues and policy bottlenecks.
As on March 31, 2015, the multiple of order backlog to the net sales of the major construction companies stood at around
4 times.
Duty Structure
Excise Duty (%)
Before
After
Impact
6%*
Cement
12.5%
12.5%
Steel
12.5%
12.5%
+
=
=
Raw materials
Ready Mix Concrete manufactured at site
29
Impact on Companies
Company
Hindustan Construction Company Limited Ltd
NCC Ltd.
Gammon India Ltd
Sadbhav Engineering Ltd
Simplex Infrastructures Ltd
Patel Engineering Ltd
Impact
Comments
+
+
+
+
+
+
30
Consumer Durables
Industry Snapshot:
Consumer durables industry is highly correlated to economic scenario as the industry demand is largely depended upon
disposable income. Urban market accounts for about 67 per cent of revenue for the consumer durable industry in India.
The rising demand from rural and semi-urban markets is likely to drive the consumer durables industry. The key growth
drivers are rising income levels, easy availability of consumer credit, various policy support from the government like
relaxation in customs duties and excise duty, awareness of brands and products, change in lifestyle, new model launches
with technological improvements and ease of shopping through various online formats
Duty Structure
Customs Duty (%)
Before
After
Impact
Nil
Nil
10
Impact on Companies
Company
Bajaj Electricals Ltd
Mirc Electronics Ltd
Impact
Comments
=
=
Reduction in custom duty would reduce the input cost which may be
passed on to the consumers
31
Education
Industry Snapshot:
Education sector in India is a mix of government-operated & privately operated educational institutions and allied education
products & services providers. India has a significant young population which calls for a robust education sector to harness
potential for human capital. The sector is highly influenced by the various government schemes and policies launched
primarily to improve the quality of education and the planned expenditure by the government through several schemes
including the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan (SSA) and Rashtriya Madhymik Shiksha Abhiyan (RMSA) to improve the quality of
education and eventually the literacy level in the country.
Governments focus on education has continued in the Union Budget 2016-17 with a budget outlay of Rs.22,200 crore
(Rs.22,000 crore in the budget 2015-16) towards SSA, Rs.3,600 crore (PY: Rs.3,565 crore) for RMSA and other such schemes.
Impact on Companies
Company
Impact
Comments
NIIT
+
+
Tree House
Aptech
32
Investment announcements:
There was an increase in the average quarterly investment announcements (AQIA) for five quarters till Q2FY16 which was
however followed by a dip in Q3FY16. AQIA for five quarters ended Q2FY16 was around Rs.1.1 trillion by the Government and
Rs.1.7 trillion by private players, however, the announcements registered a dip in Q3FY16, with Government announcement
falling to Rs.0.36 trillion and private sector to Rs.0.69 trillion.
However, the major part of capital formation appears to be driven by execution of stalled projects. The quarterly average of
stalled projects reduced from Rs.1.7 trillion in FY14 to Rs.1.2 trillion in FY15 and further to Rs.0.65 trillion in 9MFY16, thus
indicating lean materialization of new investment announcements.
The growth in the ECG industry would now be led by new project announcement and its materialization as the level of
stalled projects has come down significantly. A declining interest rate trajectory, favorable policy changes such as ban of
duty-free import of capital goods for power transmission and distribution projects and increased focus of the government
on infrastructure such as opening up of foreign direct investments across various sectors may act as catalysts.
Duty Structure
Customs Duty (%)
Before
After
Impact
Before
After
Impact
Construction equipment
7.5%
7.5%
Construction equipment
12.5%
12.5%
Textile machinery
7.5%
7.5%
Textile machinery
12.5%
12.5%
7.5%
7.5%
12.5%
12.5%
7.5%
7.5%
=
=
=
=
12.5%
12.5%
=
=
=
=
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
Power
generation
equipment such as boilers
and turbines
7.5%
10%
Power
generation
equipment such as
boilers and turbines
Motors
7.5%
10%
Motors
33
Impact on Companies
Company
ABB India Ltd.
Impact
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
Comments
Stable
Investment in road infrastructure could see improved demand for
construction equipment
Investment in railway infrastructure could see improve demand for railway
equipment and service provider
Governments thrust on increase of power generation and transmission
could see new order inflows for power equipment. Also, increase in
customs duty on boilers and turbines is likely to protect the interest of
domestic equipment manufacturers.
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Focus on capacity building and infrastructure could see higher order flow
Stable
Stable
Thrust on rural electrification could see higher demand for cables
Growth in annual freight carrying capacity could translate into increased
order flow for rolling stock
Stable
Stable
Focus on rural electrification could see higher demand for distribution
transformers
34
Fertilizers
Industry Snapshot:
Domestic fertilizer sales volume increased by 5.37% y-o-y in FY15 to 54.37 million metric tonnes (MMT) driven by healthy
growth in demand of P&K fertilizers by 11.22%, while the urea consumption largely remained stable at 30.88 MMT. During
10MFY16, the total fertilizer sales volume increased by 6.65% y-o-y to 47.82 MMT due to increase in the sales volume of
P&K fertilizers by 9.36% (20.92 MMT) and of urea by 4.64% (26.90 MMT) due to improvement in demand scenario.
Policy moves such as gas price pooling and new urea policy 2015 augured well for the urea segment of fertilizer industry
which coupled with reduced gas price is expected to result in reduction in subsidy bill for FY16. However, the reduced
international prices of some of the P&K fertilizers resulted in increase in imports in current financial year as the raw material
prices have not softened to that extent. Overall, the fertilizer subsidy budget of Rs.72,968 crore for FY16 would continue to
fall short against the total outlay mainly due to large arrears of previous year.
The key challenges faced by fertilizer industry are inadequate subsidy budget leading to delays in subsidy payments, skewed
usage of nitrogen nutrient (urea) and high dependence on imported raw materials.
Duty Structure
Customs Duty (%)
Before
After
Impact
Urea
5%
5%
DAP
5%
5%
MOP
5%
5%
Ammonia
5%
5%
Phosphoric Acid
5%
5%
Sulphur
2.5%
2.5%
Rock Phosphate
2.5%
2.5%
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
Before
After
Impact
Urea
12.50%
12.50%
DAP
12.50%
12.50%
MOP
12.50%
12.50%
Ammonia
12.50%
12.50%
Phosphoric Acid
12.50%
12.50%
Sulphur
12.50%
12.50%
Rock Phosphate
12.50%
12.50%
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
Impact on Companies
Company
Impact
Comments
=
=
=
=
36
FMCG
Industry Snapshot:
The size of the Indian FMCG industry estimated to be at around $47 billion in 2015. Most of the FMCG companies in past 2
years witnessed a subdued volume growth on account of subdued economic growth. However, the medium to long-term
prospects for the industry remains healthy on the back of favourable demographic profile, rising disposable income with
improvement in GDP growth rate and expected growth from rural demand with rising penetration in these areas.
Duty Structure
Customs Duty (%)
Before
After
Impact
Before
After
Impact
Mineral
water
and
aerated
waters
containing added sugar.
18
21
Non-filter cigarettes
(not exceeding 65 mm).
1,280
(Rs./
1,000
sticks)
1,495
(Rs./
1000
sticks)
Non-filter cigarettes
(exceeding 65 mm but
not exceeding 70 mm)
2,335
(Rs./
1,000
sticks)
2,705
(Rs./
1000
sticks)
1,280
(Rs./
1,000
sticks
1,495
(Rs./
1,000
Sticks
Filter cigarettes
(exceeding 65 mm but
not 70 mm)
1,740
(Rs./
1,000
sticks)
2,000
(Rs./
1000
sticks)
Filter cigarettes
(exceeding 70 mm but
not 75 mm)
2335
(Rs./
1,000
sticks)
2,705
(Rs./
1,000
sticks)
Other cigarettes
3,375
(Rs./
1,000
sticks)
3,935
(Rs./
1,000
sticks)
Rs.70
per
kg
Rs.70
per
kg
37
Increase in excise duty on mineral water and Increase in excise duty would lead to marginal decline in demand
aerated water containing added sugar
for these products.
Impact on Companies
Company
ITC Ltd, Godfrey Philips India Ltd,
VST Industries Ltd
Impact
Comments
Hike in excise duty would lead to decline in the volume growth for these
products and may negatively impact margins as the hike may not be fully
passed on to the end users.
38
Duty Structure
Customs Duty (%)
Before
After
Impact
Before
After
Impact
Imitation jewellery
10.00
15.00
Articles of Jewellery
[excluding articles of
silver jewellery, other
than those studded with
diamonds, ruby, emerald
or sapphire]
0.00
1.00
2.50
2.50
9.00
9.50
2.50
2.50
8.00
8.50
10.00
10.00
15.00
15.00
=
=
Impact on Companies
Company
Asian Star Company Limited
P. N. Gadgil Jewellers Private Limited
PC Jeweller Limited
Khazana Jewellery Private Limited
Impact
Comments
=
-
39
Duty Structure
Customs Duty (%)
Before
After
Disposable
sterilized
dialyzer and micro barrier
of artificial kidney
7.5
NIL
Impact
Before
After
Impact
Disposable
sterilized
dialyzer
and
micro
barrier of artificial kidney
12.5
NIL
Impact on Companies
Company
Apollo Hospital Enterprise Ltd
Fortis Healthcare Ltd
Impact
=
=
Comments
No specific comments for private sector hospitals.
40
IT & ITeS
Industry Snapshot:
The Indian IT-BPM industry in aggregate is estimated at USD 146 billion in FY15, export segment of which is estimated at
USD 98.5 billion, according to NASSCOM. IT Services exports are expected to grow at a moderate pace of 12-14% in FY16.
The nominal growth expectation is attributable to mixed set of economic data from the western markets which account
for about 80% of the income of Indian IT exporters and currency headwinds. While U.S. economy has recorded notable
recovery, economic fluctuation in Europe has been a cause of concern. The domestic IT services market meanwhile is
approaching USD 50 billion according to NASSCOM driven by growing e-commerce, under penetrated market in SMEs and
governments spending in e-governance projects.
100% deduction on profits for 3 out of 5 years for Most start-ups suffer losses in initial years. Hence, the move for
100% tax deduction on initial years profits may not be of any major
start-ups setup during April 2016 to March 2019.
significance. As such MAT will apply.
Impact on Companies
Company
TCS
Infosys
HCL Infosystem
Wipro
Tech Mahindra
Impact
Comments
=
=
=
=
=
Effective tax rates paid by these large IT companies have remained well below the
statutory tax rates benefiting from tax incentives on operations at SEZ locations.
With the tax benefits being extended for new units commencing activity in SEZ till
March 2020, IT companies stands to benefit from lower tax outflow.
41
Duty Structure
Customs Duty (%)
Basic customs duty on parts
and components, subparts
for manufacture of Set-top
boxes for gaining access to
internet and Set top boxes
for TV, digital video recorder
(DVR) and network video
recorder (NVR)
Before
10%
After
Nil
Impact
Before
After
Impact
12.5%
[with
12.5%
CENVAT
credit]
12.5%
Nil
Impact on Companies
Company
Videocon d2h
Impact
Comments
Videocon d2h would benefit from the exemption of customs and central excise
duty on parts and components of set top boxes, as it would reduce its input costs.
42
Duty Structure
Customs Duty (%)
Before
After
Impact
+
+
+
+
Iron Ore lumps (below 58% Fe content) [2601 11 21 and 2601 11 22]
30%
Nil
Iron Ore lumps (below 58% Fe content) [2601 11 41 and 2601 11 42]
10%
Nil
Bauxite (natural)
20%
15%
30%
Nil
Impact on Companies
Company
NDMC Ltd
Vedanta Ltd
OMDC Ltd
MOIL Ltd
Impact
=
=
=
=
Comments
The increase in the clean energy cess for the domestic miners is passed on to the
end-user industry. Hence, the overall impact of increase stands neutral.
43
Non-ferrous Metals
Industry Snapshot:
The base metal industry is bearing the brunt of the downward revision in global macroeconomic outlook. Muted
industrial activity along with sluggish demand outlook from the developing economies, persisting concerns of the slowing
Chinese economy and cheap imports are exerting pressure on the overall demand and subsequently the prices of these
metals. However, the changing socio-economic conditions and expected recovery of demand from the developed markets
are likely to stabilize the demand for these metals in the medium term.
CARE expects prices of all base-metals to remain volatile on the back of the ongoing macroeconomic development in the
Euro zone and other major developing countries. Chinese economic outlook and the strengthening of the US dollar vis--vis
the other major currencies in the world is also likely to have its effect on the global base metal prices.
Duty Structure
Customs Duty (%)
Before
After
Impact
Bauxite
20
15
Aluminium Scrap
Alumina
7.5
7.5
7.5
2.5
2.5
Copper scrap
Refined copper
2.5
2.5
7.5
2.5
2.5
Steam Coal
2.5
2.5
Petroleum Coke
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
7.5
10
+
=
=
=
+
=
=
=
=
+
=
=
=
=
=
+
Caustic Soda
Aluminium Ingots
Copper Concentrates
Zinc Concentrates
Refined Zinc
Lead Concentrates
Refined Lead
Before
After
Impact
Alumina
12
12
Caustic Soda
12
12
Aluminium Ingots
12
12
Copper Concentrates
12
12
Refined Copper
12
12
Zinc Concentrates
12
12
Refined Zinc
12
12
Lead Concentrates
12
12
Refined Lead
12
12
Non-coking Coal
12
12
Petroleum Coke
12
12
12
12
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
44
Impact on Companies
Company
Impact
Comments
=
=
National
Aluminium
Company Limited (NALCO)
Since, power cost accounts for a significant share of the overall cost of production
for non-ferrous metals, increase in the cost of coal used by captive power plants
on account of increase in freight rate and Clean Environment Cess is likely to
increase the cost of production of these players.
However, these companies will get some leeway in increasing prices of their
products with the hike in customs duty of imported metals.
45
Duty Structure
Basic Cenvat Duty (%)
Product
Before
After
Impact
Before
After
Impact
Before
After
Impact
Rs.4500 / MT
cess+ Rs.50/ MT
20% ad
valorem
NIL
NIL
Motor Spirit
Rs.9.48 to
Rs.10.66 /ltr
Rs.6.00/ltr
Rs.6.00/
ltr.
Rs.11.33 to
Rs.13.69/ Ltr
NIL
Rs.6.00/
ltr.
Crude Petroleum
LPG
8%
NIL
Kerosene
14%
NIL
NIL
NIL
NIL
NIL
NIL
OIDB Cess reduced from Rs.4,500 per tonne to 20% Much awaited demand from industry players in light of low crude
ad valorem
prices
The exemptions from customs duties on specified This shall make cost of exploration cheaper for upstream
goods imported for petroleum exploration
companies, especially at times when crude prices are at all-time low
Incentivise gas production from deep-water/ultra In favor of upstream companies, as such sites bear higher cost of
deep-water areas
exploration and lower probability of reserves than off-shore fields
Shall affect performance of exploration companies as current
Withdrawal of deduction u/s 80-IB of Income-tax Act
output prices are historically low and cost of exploration remains
for production of mineral oil and natural gas
high
Impact on Companies
Company
GAIL
Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation Limited
Indian Oil Corporation Ltd
Indraprastha Gas Limited
Oil India Ltd
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd
Impact
+
+
+
+
+
+
Comments
Reduction in OIDB Cess, exemption in customs duties for
import of capital goods and incentivise gas production shall
help the struggling oil & gas sector to rationalize cost of
production and encourage public and private investments in
new projects.
However, withdrawal of deduction u/s 80-IB shall hit profits
of exploration companies.
46
Paper
Industry Snapshot:
The Indian Paper Industry has three segments: Packaging paper and boards, Printing and Writing, and Newsprint. The
growth in the Indian paper industry is largely dependent on the rate of growth of the economy as well as growing literacy
rate and the government thrust on education-for-all. The Indian Paper Industry is highly fragmented and competitive in
nature. Large paper manufacturers have established their dominance in high-value segments like copier, coated packaging &
board, while smaller units cater to low value segments such as creamwove, kraft paper etc. Raw-material, energy and stores
and spares (including chemicals) forms about 75-80% of the total operating costs for the paper industry.
Duty Structure
Customs Duty (%)
Before
After
Impact
Finished products
Before
After
6%12.5%
6%12.5%
Impact
Finished products
10%
12%
10%
12%
Newsprint
- Basic
- CVD
10%
0%
10%
0%
Newsprint
Nil
Nil
Wood pulp
6%
6%
Raw materials
Wood in chips/particles
- Basic
5%
0%
Wood pulp
- Basic
- CVD
5%
6%
5%
6%
Wastepaper
- Basic
- CVD
10%
12%
10%
12%
=
=
=
The industry has suffered in the last 2-3 years on account of scarce
wood availability and its increasing prices. The scarcity of wood had
resulted in large imports of wood logs and wood chips. Relief in the
custom duty of wood chips/particles would have a positive impact
on the profitability of the wood based paper and paperboard
producing companies.
47
Impact on Companies
Company
Impact
Comments
+
+
+
=
and
Besides, the industry has been witnessing cheaper imports in some segments
of paper and paper products under the Free Trade Agreements. However, no
changes in the duty structure on imports of finished products have been
announced in this budget, thereby impact would be neutral.
On the whole, while some wood-based paper producing companies would
be benefitted, the impact on the other segments of the industry based on
waste paper and agro produce would remain neutral.
48
Petrochemicals
Industry Snapshot:
Petrochemicals are downstream hydrocarbons derived from crude oil and natural gas. The petrochemical industry is
primarily divided into basic products including olefins, ethane, propane, aromatic compounds (such as benzene, toluene),
intermediate petrochemicals, end products, polymers, synthetic fibres and synthetic rubber. The industry is the main stay of
industrial and agricultural development of the country and provides building blocks for several downstream industries, such
as textiles, papers, paints, soaps, detergents, pharmaceuticals, etc.
Duty Structure
Product
Hydrocarbons
Orthoxylene
Electrolysers/membranes
Before
After
Impact
Before
After
5%
2.5%
4%
2%
2.5%
NIL
+
+
Impact
Before
After
Impact
+
-
Impact on Companies
Company
Bhansali Engineering Polymers Limited
Finolex Industries Limited
Indian Petrochemicals Corporation Limited
Oricon Enterprises Limited
Impact
Comments
+
+
+
+
49
Marginaly
Pharmaceuticals
Industry Snapshot:
The Indian Pharmaceutical Industry (IPI) is ranked third globally in terms of volume, and thirteenth in terms of value. The
lower market share in terms of value can be attributed to the predominance of generic medicines which command lower
prices. As per estimates, the industry size is expected to grow at a CAGR of 14% from INR 1,406 billion in 2013 to INR 2,872
billion by 2018 given the huge export potential coupled with steady growth in the domestic formulation market. Growth in
the domestic pharma market is expected to be driven by increase in the penetration of health insurance, improving access
to healthcare facilities, rising prevalence of chronic diseases and rising per capita income. The export growth is expected to
be led by increasing generic penetration in the regulated markets on the back of patent expiries and growing demand from
semi-regulated pharma markets. In the long term, growth in the exports market will be sustained by emerging markets such
as Russia, Brazil, South Africa, etc, along with the enhanced focus on the niche and complex product segments.
Duty Structure
Excise Duty (%)
Before
After
Impact
Finished products
API
Formulation
12.5
12.5
=
=
Weighted deductions for R&D proposed to be revised This will serve as a big impediment for the companies involved
to 150% from April 1, 2017 and 100% from April 1, in the new drug development, which generally involves huge R&D
2020.
expense. Indian pharma companies R&D expense as a percentage
of sales is already one-fifth as compared with the pharma majors
in the regulated destinations, reduction of R&D deductions will
discourage companies to invest further and slow down the research
activities.
Tax rebate of 10% on earnings from global patent These initiatives marginally off-set the set back of reduced
filings.
deduction of R&D. However, this is likely to benefit few pharma
Tax rate of 10% (as against 35%) on income from majors who have ability to compete on global level.
worldwide exploitation of patents developed and
registered in India.
Impact on Companies
Company
Cipla Ltd
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd
Dr. Reddys Laboratories Ltd
Impact
Comments
50
Pipes
Industry Snapshot:
The Indian pipe industry is one of the top manufacturing hubs globally with presence across all categories of pipes, viz,
steel, cement and plastic. Due to economic slowdown in domestic as well as global markets during last few years, demand
for pipes has remained moderate. However, CARE expects that the demand for pipes in India would remain healthy in the
long term, on the back of increasing demand arising from oil and gas, infrastructure, irrigation, water supply and sanitation
projects.
Duty Structure
Customs Duty (%)
Before
After
Impact
Steel pipes
15
15
Plastic pipes
10
10
Cement pipes
10
10
10
10
High-Density Polyethylene
(HDPE)
10
10
=
=
=
=
=
Before
After
Impact
Steel pipes
12.5
12.5
Plastic pipes
12.5
12.5
Cement pipes
12.5
12.5
12.5
12.5
High-Density
Polyethylene (HDPE)
12.5
12.5
=
=
=
=
=
51
Impact on Companies
Company
Indian Hume Pipe Co. Ltd.
Impact
Comments
The company primarily operates in cement pipes. Proposal in the budget to provide
sanitation facility to every household by the year 2022 is expected toincrease the
demand for cement pipes.
Finolex Industries is involved in production of PVC resin and PVC Pipes. The
proposal to ensure housing for all and irrigation segment is likely to boost demand
for PVC pipes.
52
Ports
Industry Snapshot:
India has 7,517-km long coastline with 13 major ports and 187 non major ports, which handle around 90% of Indias total
international trade in terms of volume and 70% in terms of value. The total volume of traffic handled by all the major Indian
ports during FY15 (refers to the period April 1 to March 31) was about 581 million tonnes as compared with about 555
million tonnes handled in FY14, a Y-o-Y growth of about 5%.
The key challenges faced by the sector are full utilization of capacities at the major ports, draft constraints and operating
inefficiencies. On the other hand, development of new minor ports have been affected by inadequate connectivity with the
hinterland, the absence of multi-modal connectivity to and from ports and the differential royalties and revenue sharing
among ports.
As a result of allowance of the 100% FDI in the port sector, the port privatization has gained momentum. While in the past,
most of the private initiatives in ports was restricted to development of container terminals, the past couple of years have
witnessed significant investment in the minor ports, dominated by bulk capacities added in Gujarat and the eastern coast,
predominantly through PPP projects.
The Planning Commission has estimated the total traffic growth at about 14% during the 12th Five Year Plan (2012 to
2017). However, given the plethora of issues surrounding the projects in the power, steel and coal sectors coupled with
the slowdown in overall economic growth, CARE expects the total annual traffic at all ports to grow at a CAGR (Cumulative
Annual Growth Rate) of 6.2% and reach a level of 1,182 million tonnes by FY17.
Impact on Companies
Company
Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd
Adani Ports & Special
Economic Zone Ltd
Impact
Comments
=
=
53
Power
Industry Snapshot:
The all-India installed capacity on December 31, 2015 was 284.3 Giga-Watts (GW). In FY14, the base power deficit was 4.2%,
which declined to 3.6% in FY15, while peak deficit increased from 4.5% in FY14 to 4.7% in FY15. During 9MFY16, base deficit
has declined to 2.2% and peak power deficit to 3.2%.
The sector is still plagued by weak health of power distribution companies, fuel-related issues and transmission constraints.
Encouraging policy framework in the renewable energy (RE) sector has resulted in rising share of RE capacity from 5.9% (7.7
GW) in FY2007 to 13.2% (37.4 GW) as on December 31, 2015. In 9MFY16, RE capacity addition was 3 GW compared to 2.1
GW in 9MFY15. The government has set a target of augmenting the renewable power capacity to 175 GW (including solar
capacity of 100 GW) by 2022
Duty Structure
Customs Duty (%)
Clean Energy Cess on Coal (Rs./tonne)
Before
Rs.200
After
Rs.400
Impact
54
Impact on Companies
Company
Impact
Comments
While the increased cost of power due to increase in cess on coal will be passthrough for the thermal power generation companies having fuel cost pass-through
clauses, the input cost would increase for the companies having fixed price PPAs.
With the increased cost of thermal power difference in cost of generation with
renewables will reduce.
Tax benefit under 80IA will not be available for the sector and also accelerated
depreciation benefit will be reduced for the renewable power projects with effect
from 1.4.2017.
55
Real Estate
Industry Snapshot:
The Indian real estate industry is the second-largest employment-generating sector after agriculture, contributing about
5-6% to Indias GDP. Not only does it generate a high level of direct employment, but it also stimulates the demand in over
250 ancillary industries such as cement, steel, paint, brick, building materials, consumer durables etc. The sector has been
witnessing demand slowdown due to high inflation, higher borrowing cost and weak economic sentiments affecting buyers
confidence.
Duty Structure
Customs Duty (%)
Steel
Before
After
Impact
Cement
Before
After
Impact
12
12
- Retail
12*+
Rs.120/t
12*+
Rs.120/t
- Bulk
12#
12
- Clinker
12
12
2% without
input tax credit]
/ 6% [with
input tax credit]
[without input
tax credit] / 6%
[with input tax
credit]
Nil
Steel
Cement
OPC/PPC/PSC@
- Basic
- CVD
- Special CVD
Nil
12
4
Nil
12
4
Clinker
- Basic
- CVD
- Special CVD
10
12
4
10
12
4
=
=
Ready Mix
Concrete
*An abatement of 30% on Retail Sale price and is on ad valorem, # on ad valorem, @ OPC- Ordinary Portland cement, PPC- Portland pozzolana
cement and PSC- Portland slag cement.
56
Impact on Companies
Company
DLF Ltd
Indiabulls Real Estate Ltd
Prestige Estates Projects Ltd
Sobha Developers Ltd
Kolte Patil Developers Ltd
Godrej Properties Ltd
Impact
+
+
+
=
=
=
Comments
57
Duty Structure
Excise Duty (%)
Before
After
Cement
12.50
12.50
Steel
12.50
12.50
Impact
=
=
58
Impact on Companies
Company
IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd
Reliance Infrastructure Ltd.
Sadbhav Infrastructure Project Ltd
ILF&S Transportation Networks Ltd
GMR Infrastructure Ltd
Gammon Infrastructure Projects Ltd
Impact
Comments
+
+
+
+
+
+
59
Marginaly
SEZ
Industry Snapshot:
In order to boost foreign investments, promote exports and to ensure global competitiveness for domestic companies,
the Government of India had announced a policy on SEZ in April 2000 and SEZ Act 2005 came into effect in February 2006.
Investment in SEZs declined during the last few years due to economic slowdown, land aggregation issues, withdrawal of
sops [introduction of Minimum Alternate Tax (MAT) and Dividend Distribution Tax (DDT)] and uncertainty with respect to
policies. As on December 21, 2015, there are 412 formally approved SEZ of which 204 are operational in India (compared to
491 formally approved SEZs of which 196 operational as on January 21, 2015).
Duty Structure
MAT (%)
Before
After
Impact
SEZ Units
18.50%
18.50%
Developers
18.50%
18.50%
=
=
DDT(%)
Before
After
Impact
SEZ Units
20.00%
20.00%
Developers
20.00%
20.00%
=
=
60
Steel
Industry Snapshot:
India has become the third largest crude steel producer in 2015, with finished steel production of 91.46 MTPA.
In the past decade (FY03-FY15), steel consumption in the domestic market has risen by CAGR of 8%. Consumption has been
growing on the back of thriving and favourable demand from diverse sectors ranging from infrastructure, automobiles,
construction, transportation, etc. However, over the past 1-2 years, steel industry had been reeling under the impact of
slowdown in demand from the major end user industries, viz, real estate & construction on one hand and unabated imports
on the other hand. Global overcapacity led to a fall in steel prices during 2014-15, while cheap import and lack of demand
drivers within the country kept the domestic steel prices low.
Government big ticket announcement on sectors like construction, infrastructure and automobiles is expected to improve
the long-term outlook for steel. The Government of India is aiming to scale up steel production in the country to 300
MT by 2025 from 100 MT in 2014-15. This will be driven by the governments on-going initiatives to clear infrastructural
bottlenecks, introducing structural reforms in the mining sector and the expectation of a benign inflationary environment.
Nevertheless, CARE expects steel prices to remain subdued in FY16 due to global weak steel pricing trend, increasing cheap
imports and prevailing overcapacity within domestic producers. While marginal improvement in steel pricing is expected
due to the implementation of Minimum Import Price (MIP).
Impact on Companies
Company
Impact
Comments
Increased outlay is likely to give much needed impetus to steel demand. Also,
government thrust on Housing for all shall provide support to demand for long
products.
Rise in the clean environment cess on coal would have negative impact on steel
players which are utilising coal for their captive power generation.
61
Telecom Services
Industry Snapshot:
India continued to have the second-largest wireless subscriber base globally with 1,009.46 million wireless subscribers as
on November 30, 2015. The total telecom subscriber base also comprise of an additional 25.72 million wireline subscribers.
The overall wireless tele-density was 79.78 as on same date with an urban wireless tele-density of 146.89 and rural wireless
tele-density of 49.51. The number of broadband subscribers was 131.49 million as on November 30, 2015 including 115.11
million wireless broadband subscribers. The sector has exhibited exponential growth over the past few years supported by
increasing network coverage, enabling regulations-initiatives and evolution of technology which has acted as catalyst for
this growth.
Duty Structure
Customs Duty (%)
Preform of Silica
(for use in
manufacturing of
telecommunication
grade optical fiber
cables)
Specified
telecommunication
equipment
(Soft switches and Voice
Over Internet Protocol
(VoIP) equipment
Charger, battery and
wired headsets/speakers
for manufacture of
mobile phone
Before
Nil
Nil
After
10%
10%
Impact
Charger, battery
and wired
headsets/
speakers for
supply to
mobile phone
manufacturers
Nil
12.5%
7.5%
Nil
Nil
2%
+
-
Adapter, battery
and wired
headsets/
speakers of
mobile phone
Excise duty on
Routers and
broadband
Modems
Before
After
Impact
Nil
2%[with-out
Input Tax
Credit]
or 12.5%
[with Input
Tax Credit]
12.5%
Nil
12.5%/ Nil
4% (Without
Input Tax
Credit)
Or 12.5%
(with Input
Tax Credit)
62
Impact on Companies
Company
Bharti Airtel
Reliance Communications
Idea Cellular
Impact
Comments
=
=
=
No major Impact
63
Textiles
Industry Snapshot:
Indian Textiles industry plays a major role in the Indian economy which contributes 4 per cent to GDP, 14 per cent to
industrial production and 13 per cent of total exports. The industry is one of the largest sources of employment generation
providing employment to about 45 million people. The size of Indias Textile market in 2014 was USD 99 billion which is
expected to increase to USD 226 billion by 2023. In 2014, Textiles contributed 60% to the export market while the balance
was contributed by Apparels.
Readymade Garments account for 41% of the total textiles and apparels exports, followed by cotton textiles (31%), manmade textiles (16%) and balance by handicrafts, silk, etc. Indias textiles products, including handlooms and handicrafts, are
exported to more than a hundred countries. U.S.A. and the E.U., account for about two-thirds of Indias textiles exports.
Textile exports grew at a cagr of 9.97% over the period FY06 to FY15. Furthermore it grew by 5.3% to USD 41.4 billion in
FY15. Textile exports during H1FY16 (April 2015 to September 2015) touched USD 19.10 billion
Duty Structure
Customs Duty (%)
Before
After
Impact
Finished products
Before
After
Impact
Cotton Fabric
Man-Made Fabric
12
12
Branded RMG
12
12
=
=
=
Raw Cotton
Cotton Yarn
12.5
12.5
PTA
12
12
MEG
12
12
Polyester Chips
12
12
12.5
12.5
12.5
12.5
12
12
12.5
12.5
Finished products
Cotton Fabric
10
10
Man-Made Fabric
10
10
Branded RMG
10
10
=
=
=
Raw materials
Raw materials
Raw Cotton
Cotton Yarn
PTA
10
10
MEG
10
10
Polyester Chips
10
10
DMT
10
10
Man-Made Yarn
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
DMT
Man-Made Yarn
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
64
Impact on Companies
Company
Mandhana Industries Ltd
Raymond Ltd
Sutlej Textiles & Industries Ltd
Impact
Comments
Negative
Negative
No impact
65