ANALISIS ESTADISTICO DE MAXIMAS DESCARGAS

Informacion Basica
Tiempo de Retorno (TR) =

50.00

Medicion de Caudales (Ao) =

Ao

1,950

Caudal (QX)

(QX - QP)2

(QX - QP)3

Ln (QX)

1,960

79.57

34,938

-6,530,542

4.38

1,961

61.07

42,196

-8,667,857

4.11

1,962

217.35

2,414

-118,642

5.38

1,963

347.61

6,581

533,858

5.85

1,964

172.97

8,746

-817,857

5.15

1,965

233.22

1,107

-36,818

5.45

1,966

354.43

7,734

680,139

5.87

1,967

379.80

12,840

1,454,905

5.94

1,968

259.59

48

-328

5.56

1,969

259.65

47

-320

5.56

1,970

181.94

7,148

-604,367

5.20

1,971

129.17

18,856

-2,589,267

4.86

1,972

310.76

1,960

86,777

5.74

1,973

202.93

4,040

-256,743

5.31

1,974

257.91

74

-631

5.55

1,975

301.73

1,242

43,773

5.71

1,976

82.62

33,807

-6,216,047

4.41

1,977

400.62

17,992

2,413,254

5.99

1,978

38.40

52,024

-11,865,989

3.65

1,979

152.95

12,891

-1,463,582

5.03

1,980

73.51

37,240

-7,186,533

4.30

1,981

437.77

29,338

5,025,042

6.08

1,982

505.59

57,170

13,669,507

6.23

1,983

607.03

115,969

39,492,472

6.41

1,984

180.09

7,465

-644,914

5.19

1,985

481.36

46,170

9,920,717

6.18

1,986

235.10

985

-30,922

5.46

1,987

357.91

8,358

764,118

5.88

1,988

32.19

54,895

-12,861,821

3.47

1,989

239.61

722

-19,416

5.48

1,990

15.23

63,130

-15,861,952

2.72

1,991

302.28

1,281

45,854

5.71

1,992

64.58

40,767

-8,231,079

4.17

1,993

778.46

262,116

134,196,175

6.66

1,994

450.84

33,986

6,265,385

6.11

1,995

66.59

39,959

-7,987,695

4.20

1,996

145.26

14,696

-1,781,568

4.98

1,997

158.69

11,620

-1,252,636

5.07

1,998

93.81

29,817

-5,148,806

4.54

1,999

237.98

813

-23,167

5.47

2,000

34.39

53,869

-12,502,903

3.54

2,001

79.53

34,953

-6,534,736

4.38

2,002

109.20

24,739

-3,891,185

4.69

2,003

260.96

31

-169

5.56

2,004

178.32

7,773

-685,369

5.18

2,005

83.33

33,547

-6,144,315

4.42

2,006

263.71

-21

5.57

2,007

125.75

19,807

-2,787,588

4.83

2,008

1,860.95

2,542,311

4,053,619,723

7.53

2,009

188.56

6,073

-473,228

5.24

2,010

400.62

17,992

2,413,254

5.99

2,011

408.40

20,139

2,858,004

6.01

2,012

237.66

831

-23,956

5.47

2,013

91.17

30,736

-5,388,590

4.51

2,014

55.07

44,697

-9,449,792

4.01

2,015

124.53

20,152

-2,860,712

4.82

54

Suma =

14,390.32

3,980,839

4,122,540,895

290.799

PARAMETROS ESTADISTICOS
Media (QX)

Desv. Estandar

QX

SX
266.487

Coef. Asimetria
CS

Cv

274.062

QY

SY

3.924
CSY

5.385

Coef. Variacion

1.028
CvY

0.915

-0.942

0.170

DISTRIBUCION LOGNORMAL DE DOS PARAMETROS

Parametros Estadisticos

LOGNORM AL

Campo Normal
4,500

N = 54.00
QX = 266.49

4,000

SX = 274.06
CS = 3.92

3,500

Cv = 1.03

3,000
Caudal (m3/s)

Campo Transformado
QY = 5.39

f(x) = 549.1910651765 ln(x) - 512.1741154714

R = 0.9625342986

2,500

SY = 0.91
2,000

CSY = -0.94
CvY = 0.17

1,500

K = F(1-1/TR)
1,000

K = F 0.98
K = 2.05

500

QESP = Exp (QY + K SY)

QESP = 1,428.36

0
1

Iintervalo de Confianza
995.42

TR (Aos)

10
Periodo de Retorno (Aos)

2,049.58

Probabilidad

F(1-1/TR)

K=Z

QESP

100

0.5000

0.5000

0.0000

218.15

0.2000

0.8000

0.8416

471.17

10

0.1000

0.9000

1.2816

704.68

25

0.0400

0.9600

1.7507

1,082.46

50

0.0200

0.9800

2.0537

1,428.36

75

0.0133

0.9867

2.2164

1,657.50

100

0.0100

0.9900

2.3263

1,832.98

150

0.0067

0.9933

2.4747

2,099.53

200

0.0050

0.9950

2.5758

2,302.99

300

0.0033

0.9967

2.7131

2,611.08

400

0.0025

0.9975

2.8070

2,845.54

500

0.0020

0.9980

2.8782

3,036.88

1000

0.0010

0.9990

3.0902

3,687.21

DISTRIBUCION DE GUMBEL O EXTREMA TIPO I

Parametros Estadisticos
Campo Normal

M ETODO DE GUM BEL

2,000

N = 54.00
1,800

QX = 266.49
SX = 274.06

1,600

CS = 3.92
Cv = 1.03

1,400

Campo Transformado

Caudal (m3/s)
1,200

QY = 5.39
SY = 0.91

f(x) = 221.6585013451 ln(x) + 100.0440574654

R = 0.9991159424

1,000

CSY = -0.94
CvY = 0.17

800

K1 = TR/(TR -1)

600

K1 = 1.0204
Ln(Ln(K1)) = -3.90

400

KT = 2.59
200

QESP = QX + KT SX
QESP = 976.93

Iintervalo de Confianza
770.30

10
Periodo de Retorno (Aos)

1,183.57

TR (Aos)

Probabilidad

Ln Ln TR/(TR -1)

KT

QESP

0.5000

-0.3665

-0.16

221.47

0.2000

-1.4999

0.72

463.66

10

0.1000

-2.2504

1.30

624.02

25

0.0400

-3.1985

2.04

826.63

50

0.0200

-3.9019

2.59

976.93

75

0.0133

-4.3108

2.91

1,064.30

100

0.0100

-4.6001

3.14

1,126.13

150

0.0067

-5.0073

3.45

1,213.13

200

0.0050

-5.2958

3.68

1,274.78

300

0.0033

-5.7021

4.00

1,361.60

400

0.0025

-5.9902

4.22

1,423.17

500

0.0020

-6.2136

4.39

1,470.90

1000

0.0010

-6.9073

4.94

1,619.13

DISTRIBUCION LOG - PEARSON III O GAMA DE TRES PARAMETROS

Parametros Estadisticos

LOG-PEARSON III

Campo Normal
N = 54.00

3,000

CS = 3.92

2,800

Cv = 1.03

2,600

Campo Transformado

2,400

QY = 5.39

2,200

SY = 0.91

2,000

CSY = -0.94

Caudal (m3/s)
1,800

K = F(1-1/TR)

1,600

K = F 0.9800

1,400

Z = 2.05

1,000

Z3-6Z= -3.66

800

CS/6 = -0.16

600

KT = 1.532
QESP = Exp(QY + KT SY)

400
200

QESP = 886.16

Iintervalo de Confianza
655.21

f(x) = 151.3000184055 ln(x) + 244.1120775067

R = 0.9726098845

1,200

Z2-1= 3.22

10

1,198.51

100

Pariodo de Retorno (Aos)

Factor de Frecuencia
KT = Z + (Z2-1) (CS/ 6) + (1/3) (Z3 - 6Z) (CS/ 6)2 - (Z2-1) (CS/ 6)3 + Z (CS/ 6)4+ (1/3) (CS/ 6)5

TR (Aos)

Probabilidad

KT

0.5000

0.0000

0.1531

250.96

QESP

0.2000

0.8416

0.8502

474.87

10

0.1000

1.2816

1.1380

617.95

25

0.0400

1.7507

1.3932

780.47

50

0.0200

2.0537

1.5320

886.16

75

0.0133

2.2164

1.5986

941.86

100

0.0100

2.3263

1.6407

978.85

150

0.0067

2.4747

1.6939

1,027.61

200

0.0050

2.5758

1.7277

1,059.95

300

0.0033

2.7131

1.7708

1,102.53

400

0.0025

2.8070

1.7984

1,130.72

500

0.0020

2.8782

1.8183

1,151.50

1000

0.0010

3.0902

1.8727

1,210.34

COMPARACION DE CAUDALES MAXIMOS OBTENIDOS

f(x )= 2 2 1 .6 5 8 5 0 1 3 4 5 1 ln (x )+ 1 0 0 .0 4 4 0 5 7 4 6 5 4
R= 0 .9 9 9 1 1 5 9 4 2 4

f(x ) = 151.3000184055 ln(x ) + 244.1120775067

R = 0.9726098845
COMP ARACIONDE RES UL TADOS

f(x )= 5 4 9 .1 9 1 0 6 5 1 7 6 5 ln (x )-5 1 2 .1 7 4 1 1 5 4 7 1 4
R= 0 .9 6 2 5 3 4 2 9 8 6

91

81

71

61

LOGNORMAL

Logarithmic (LOGNO
GUMBEL

51

Logarithmic (GUMBE

CAUDAL (m3 /s )

PEARSON

Logarithmic (PEARS

41

31

21

11

10

1 00

PE RIODODE RET ORNO(A os )

1 ,0 0 0

10

1 00

1 ,0 0 0

PE RIODODE RET ORNO(A os )

RESULTADOS CAUDAL DE DISEO

METODO

R2

Q(m3/s)

LOG NORMAL

0.963

1,428.36

0.00

GUMBEL

0.999

976.93

976.93

LOG PEARSON

0.973

886.16

0.00

RESULTADO

0.999

977.00

976.93

SELECCIONAR

>>>>>>>>>>>

Q(m /s) =
3

700.00

SCARGAS

( Ln (QX)-QY)2

( Ln (QX)-QY)3

1.02

-1.03

1.62

-2.06

0.00

0.00

0.22

0.10

0.05

-0.01

0.00

0.00

0.24

0.11

0.31

0.17

0.03

0.01

0.03

0.01

0.03

-0.01

0.27

-0.14

0.13

0.04

0.01

0.00

0.03

0.00

0.11

0.03

0.94

-0.92

0.37

0.22

3.02

-5.24

0.13

-0.04

1.18

-1.29

0.49

0.34

0.71

0.59

1.05

1.07

0.04

-0.01

0.63

0.50

0.01

0.00

0.25

0.12

3.66

-7.01

0.01

0.00

7.09

-18.86

0.11

0.03

1.48

-1.80

1.62

2.06

0.53

0.38

1.41

-1.67

0.17

-0.07

0.10

-0.03

0.71

-0.60

0.01

0.00

3.41

-6.31

1.02

-1.03

0.48

-0.33

0.03

0.01

0.04

-0.01

0.93

-0.89

0.04

0.01

0.30

-0.17

4.60

9.85

0.02

0.00

0.37

0.22

0.39

0.25

0.01

0.00

0.76

-0.66

1.89

-2.61

0.31

-0.18

44.369

-36.835

RAMETROS

NORM AL

5 ln(x) - 512.1741154714

100

1000

Retorno (Aos)

Intervalo de confianza
(-)

(+)

152.03

313.03

0.69

218.15

328.36

676.10

1.61

471.17

491.09

1,011.16

2.30

704.68

754.37

1,553.24

3.22

1,082.46

995.42

2,049.58

3.91

1,428.36

1,155.11

2,378.38

4.32

1,657.50

1,277.41

2,630.18

4.61

1,832.98

1,463.17

3,012.67

5.01

2,099.53

1,604.96

3,304.61

5.30

2,302.99

1,819.66

3,746.69

5.70

2,611.08

1,983.06

4,083.13

5.99

2,845.54

2,116.41

4,357.69

6.21

3,036.88

2,569.62

5,290.86

6.91

3,687.21

0.9625

A TIPO I

DE GUM BEL

451 ln(x) + 100.0440574654

10
e Retorno (Aos)

100

Intervalo de confianza
(-)

(+)

165.16

277.77

0.69

221.47

368.84

558.49

1.61

463.66

495.94

752.09

2.30

624.02

653.94

999.31

3.22

826.63

770.30

1,183.57

3.91

976.93

837.74

1,290.85

4.32

1,064.30

885.42

1,366.84

4.61

1,126.13

952.43

1,473.83

5.01

1,213.13

999.88

1,549.69

5.30

1,274.78

1,066.65

1,656.56

5.70

1,361.60

1,113.98

1,732.36

5.99

1,423.17

1,150.66

1,791.15

6.21

1,470.90

1,264.49

1,973.76

6.91

1,619.13

0.9991

RES PARAMETROS

PEARSON III

4055 ln(x) + 244.1120775067

5

100

1000

de Retorno (Aos)

Intervalo de confianza
(-)

(+)
204.24

308.37

0.69

250.96

373.94

603.05

1.61

474.87

475.10

803.74

2.30

617.95

585.47

1,040.43

3.22

780.47

655.21

1,198.51

3.91

886.16

691.43

1,283.00

4.32

941.86

715.29

1,339.51

4.61

978.85

746.53

1,414.52

5.01

1,027.61

767.12

1,464.56

5.30

1,059.95

794.08

1,530.80

5.70

1,102.53

811.84

1,574.87

5.99

1,130.72

824.88

1,607.46

6.21

1,151.50

861.62

1,700.20

6.91

1,210.34

0.9726

OBTENIDOS

LOGNORMAL
Logarithmic (LOGNORMAL)
GUMBEL
Logarithmic (GUMBEL)
PEARSON
Logarithmic (PEARSON)

1 ,0 0 0

1 ,0 0 0