Hotels data

Rooms
RoomsX365 days
Occupancy in %
Growth of prices per year
Average revenue per room in Euro

Assumptions
150
54.75
65%
5%
130

2005
82.5

P&L (000's Euro)

Assumptions
Sales
COGS
15% X sales
GROSS MARGIN
Personnel
3% YoY growth
Marketing expenses
14% X sales
Overhead
11% X sales
EBITA
Depreciation (6% of the building)
9000
6%
EBIT
Financial Expenses
3%
(1)
EBT
Taxes
35%
Net income
Dividends to Equity holders: 50% of profit of previous year
Balance Net Income
Profitability ratios
Sales Growth
Gross Margin/sales
ROS (Net incomes/sales)
ROE (Net income/equity)
ROA (EBIT/Net Assets)

Abridged Balance Sheet

Assumptions
NFO (% of sales)
5%
NFO (line of credit required)
Gross FA
17
Net Fixed Assets
NA ( Net assets + NFO) (Total Assets)
D Debt long term
10,000
E Equity
7,000
Debt+Equity
Total Liability
Cash Surplus (+) or Loan (-)

2005
10725
1609
9116
900
1502
1180
5535
540
4995
166.1
4829
1690
3139
3139

85%
29%
45%
29%

(2)

(3)
(4)

(5)
(5)

(6)

2004
na
0
8000
8000
8000
5000
3000
8000
8000
0

2005
5%
536
17000
17000
17536
10000
7000
17000
17000
-536

Dividend paid (50% NI prev. year)

CASH FLOW CALCULTAION AND RETURNS

Free cash flow (FCF) of the project
EBIT
variation of NA (+ -)
FCF
IRR Project
FCF after taxes
IRR after taxes
CF Shareholder
Net income
Variation of NA (+/-)
Variation of Debt (+/-)
CF Shareholder
annual increase in share
dividends paid
IRR Shareholder
Discounting factor with K of 12%
PV of CF
PV @12%
CF AC GROUP
CF Shareholder
Cost of options ?
Cannibalization ? (10% X Margin)
Headquarter charge ? (7% sales)
Total CF AC Group
PV of CF @ 12%
IRR AC Hotels

0
2004

1
2005
0
4995
-8000 -9536.25
-8000
-4541
43%
-8000
-6289.5
26%

(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
(12)

(13)
(14)
(15)
(16)
(17)
(18)
(19)

Assumptions
70%

3139
-9536.25
5000
-1397.457
4000
0

-8000
5000
-3000
3000
0
55%
1.00
0.8928
-3000 -1247.649
14221.2076

(20)
(21)
(22)
(23)

-3000 -1397.457
-200
0
750.75
-3200 -646.7069
-3200 -577.3799
70%

RISKS
Identify biggest Risk (24)
Occupancy
IRR AC Group
Revenue/room
IRR AC Group
Growth of sales
IRR AC Group
Construction

Worst

Base

Best

55%

65%

75% D=0
D=10
145 D=15

115

130

3%

5%

6%

11

IRR AC Group

2006
90

2007
97.5

2008
97.5

2009
97.5

2010
97.5

2011
97.5

2012
97.5

2006
12285
1843
10442
927
1720
1351
6444
540
5904
332.2
5572
1950
3622
1569
2052

2007
13309
1996
11312
955
1863
1464
7030
540
6490
317.6
6173
2161
4012
1811
2202

2008
13974
2096
11878
983
1956
1537
7401
540
6861
302.4
6559
2296
4263
2006
2257

2009
14673
2201
12472
1013
2054
1614
7791
540
7251
287.2
6964
2437
4526
2132
2395

2010
15407
2311
13096
1043
2157
1695
8201
540
7661
272.1
7388
2586
4803
2263
2539

2011
16177
2427
13750
1075
2265
1779
8631
540
8091
426.9
7665
2683
4982
2401
2581

2012
16986
2548
14438
1107
2378
1868
9085
540
8545
411.9
8133
2846
5286
2491
2795

14.5%
85%
29%
52%
36%

8.3%
85%
30%
57%
41%

5.0%
85%
31%
61%
45%

5.0%
85%
31%
65%
49%

5.0%
85%
31%
69%
54%

5.0%
85%
31%
71%
42%

5.0%
85%
31%
76%
45%

2006
5%
614
17000
16460
17074
9000
7000
16000
16000
-1074

2007
5%
665
17000
15920
16585
8000
7000
15000
15000
-1585

2008
5%
699
17000
15380
16079
7000
7000
14000
14000
-2079

2009
5%
734
17000
14840
15574
6000
7000
13000
13000
-2574

2010
5%
770
17000
14300
15070
5000
7000
12000
12000
-3070

2011
5%
809
22662
19422
20231
4000
7000
11000
11000
-9231

2012
5%
849
22662
18882
19731
3000
7000
10000
10000
-9731

1569

1811

2006

2132

2
2006
5904
462.00
6366

3
2007
6490
488.81
6979

4
2008
6861
506.73
7368

5
2009
7251
505.06
7756

4299.6

2263

2401

2491

6
7
2010
2011
7661
8091
503.32 -5160.52
8164
2931

8
2012
8545
499.56
9044

4707.5985 4966.41596 5218.07166 5482.69369 98.94189 6053.50939

3622
4012
4263
4526
4803
4982
5286
462.00
488.81
506.73
505.06
503.32 -5160.52
499.56
-1000
-1000
-1000
-1000
-1000
-1000
-1000
3083.65213 3501.1824688 3769.88112 4031.38558 4305.82232 -1178.56 4785.74932
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1569
1811
2006
2132
2263
2401
2491
0.7972
0.7118
0.6355
0.5674
0.5066
0.4523
0.4039
2458.28747 2492.1416813 2395.75945 2287.40818 2181.32959 -533.0625 1932.96415

3083.65213 3501.1824688 3769.88112 4031.38558 4305.82232 -1178.56 4785.74932

859.95
931.6125 978.193125 1027.10278 1078.45792 1132.381 1188.99986
3943.60213 4432.7949688 4748.07425 5058.48837 5384.28024 -46.17874 5974.74918
3143.84
3155.26
3017.40
2870.19
2727.68 -20.88665
2413.20
NPV AC Hotels
20051.34
K=
12%

IRR AC Group in scenario (25)

Worst
Base
Best
70%

IRR AC Group assuming away

Options
Cannibalization

Debt
0
Equity
17
IRR Shareholders
IRR AC Group

IRR & Level of Debt

7
10

HQ Charge

2013
97.5

2014
97.5

2015
97.5

2013
17835
2675
15160
1140
2497
1962
9561
540
9021
397.0
8624
3018
5606
2643
2962

2014
18727
2809
15918
1174
2622
2060
10062
540
9522
382.2
9140
3199
5941
2803
3138

2015
19663
2949
16714
1210
2753
2163
10588
540
10048
367.4
9681
3388
6293
2970
3322

5.0%
85%
31%
80%
49%

5.0%
85%
32%
85%
53%

5.0%
85%
32%
90%
58%

2013
5%
892
22662
18342
19234
2000
7000
9000
9000
-10234

2014
5%
936
22662
17802
18738
1000
7000
8000
8000
-10738

2015
5%
983
22662
17262
18245
0
7000
7000
7000
-11245 Negetive fig. indicates short term loan

2643

2803

9
2013
9021
497.54
9518

10
2014
9522
495.41
10017

2970

11
2015
K
10048
12%
493.18
g
10542
2%

6361.12439 6684.55182 7024.59525

5606
5941
6293 K
497.54
495.41
493.18
12%
-1000
-1000
-1000
g
5103.06626 5436.15424 5785.81474
2%
0
0
0
2643
2803
2970
0.3606
0.322
0.2875
1840.16569 1750.44166 1663.42174

5103.06626 5436.15424 5785.81474

1248.44985 1310.87234 1376.41596

6351.51611 6747.02658 7162.2307
2290.36
2172.54
2059.14

RR & Level of Debt (base scenario)

10
13
7
4

15
2

34226.69

IRR worst case

Identify biggest Risk (24)
Occupancy
IRR AC Group
Revenue/room
IRR AC Group
Growth of sales
IRR AC Group
Construction
IRR AC Group
P&L (000's Euro)
Sales
COGS
GROSS MARGIN
Personnel
Marketing expenses
Overhead
EBITA
Depreciation (6% of the building)
EBIT
Financial Expenses

Gross FA

CF AC GROUP
CF Shareholder
Cost of options ? 2 Million Euro
Cannibalization ? (10% X Margin)
Headquarter charge ? (7% sales)
Total CF AC Group
PV of CF @ 12%
IRR AC Hotels
IRR Best Case

Worst
55%

150

82.5

115
3%
11

Assumptions
15% X sales
3% YoY growth
14% X sales
11% X sales
9000

6%

3%

(1)

17

(4)

Assumptions
0.7 (20)
(21)
(22)
(23)

8000

2005
9488
1423
8064
900
1328
1044
4793
540
4995
166.1
4828.913
1690.119
3138.793

17000
3138.793
0
1
2004
2005
-3000 -1397.457
-200
0 -1044.225
0
-750.75
-3200 -3192.432
-3200.0
-2850.2
14%

CF Shareholder
Cost of options ? 2 Million Euro
Cannibalization ? (10% X Margin)
Headquarter charge ? (7% sales)
Total CF AC Group
PV of CF @ 12%
IRR AC Hotels

0.7

(20)
(21)
(22)
(23)

-3000 -1397.457
-200
0 -1044.225
0
-750.75
-3200 -3192.432
-3200.0
-2850.2
14%

2006
9772
1466
8306
927
1368
1075
4936

2007
10065
1510
8555
955
1409
1107
5084

2008
10367
1555
8812
983
1451
1140
5237

2009
10678
1602
9077
1013
1495
1175
5394

2010
10999
1650
9349
1043
1540
1210
5556

2011
11329
1699
9629
1075
1586
1246
5722

2012
11668
1750
9918
1107
1634
1284
5894

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

17000

17000

17000

17000

#REF!

#REF!

17000
2
2006
3083.652

3
4
5
6
7
8
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
3501.18 3769.881 4031.386 4305.822 -1178.56 4785.749

-1131.244
-859.95
1092.458
870.9

-1187.81 -1247.196 -1309.556 -1375.034 -1443.786 -1515.975

-931.61 -978.1931 -1027.103 -1078.458 -1132.381
-1189
1381.76 1544.492 1694.727 1852.331 -3754.726 2080.775
983.5
981.5
961.6
938.4
-1698.3
840.4
NPV AC Hotels
701.8
K=
12%

3083.652

3501.18 3769.881 4031.386 4305.822 -1178.56 4785.749

-1131.244
-859.95
1092.458
870.9

-1187.81 -1247.196 -1309.556 -1375.034 -1443.786 -1515.975

-931.61 -978.1931 -1027.103 -1078.458 -1132.381
-1189
1381.76 1544.492 1694.727 1852.331 -3754.726 2080.775
983.5
981.5
961.6
938.4
-1698.3
840.4
NPV AC Hotels
701.8
K=
12%

2013
12018
1803
10216
1140
1683
1322
6071

2014
12379
1857
10522
1174
1733
1362
6253

2015
12750
1913
10838
1210
1785
1403
6441

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

#REF!

#REF!

#REF!

9
10
11
2013
2014
2015
5103.066 5436.154 5785.815
-1591.774 -1671.362
0
-1248.45 -1310.872 -1376.416
2262.843 2453.92 4409.399
816.0
790.2
1267.7

5103.066 5436.154 5785.815

-1591.774 -1671.362
0
-1248.45 -1310.872 -1376.416
2262.843 2453.92 4409.399
816.0
790.2
1267.7