Thi im Minsky v l thuyt bt n v ti chnh

Thi im Minsky (Minsky moment) l s di chuyn chm t trng thi n nh sang khng hong ca h
thng ti chnh. Thi im ny c rt ra t thuyt bt n v ti chnh do nh kinh t hoc ngi My Hyman
P.Minsky (1919 1996) ngh vo thp nin 1970. Minsky theo trng phi Keynes, xy dng hoc thuyt ca
mnh trn tng s n nh bt n (stability is unstable). i n thi im Minsky, nn kinh t tri
qua ba giai on chnh: giai on 1: kinh t phc hi sau khng hong, pht trin n nh, cc nh u t hng
khi u t vo mt lnh vc c nh gi s mang li c hi li nhun to ln. Giai on 2: u t vo lnh
vc ny s ko theo nhiu nh u t na, ln cao tro, to bong bng gi v tan v trong lnh vc y. Giai
on 3: Bong bng gi v ko theo khng hong ti chnh.
Hyman Minsky v trng phi tn c in khng ng nhau v ci ngun bt n ca h thng ti chnh. Theo
tn c in th s bt n y nm trong mc phc tp ca th trng, v s phc tp y n t sng to trong
ky thut (ti chnh). Trong khi i vi Minsky th s bt n y nm trong chnh bn cht ca nn kinh t t
bn, tc n lun hin hu v mang tnh c cu (capitalism is inherently flawed). Nn kinh t t bn t do lun
nng ng v em n nhiu c hi lm giu v cng to iu kin cho nh u t lm giu. Chnh v th
Minksy t cu trc n trong h thng ti chnh v thi u t/u c ca nh u t lm trong tm ca
m hnh. ng vi ba giai on i n thi im Minsky, cc nh u t c ba thi vay mn khc nhau.
Giai on u khi mt nn kinh t bt u phc hi sau khng hong, cc nh u t thng la chon u t
an ton, mn n u t vo nhng k hoch gn nh chc chn. Dng tin t vic u t s tr n,
c vn gc ln li vay. n giai on th hai khi kinh t tng trng cao v li nhun pht sinh th cc doanh
nghip k vong rng li nhun s tip tc tng v do s la chon u t vi mc ri ro cao hn nhm ti a
ha li nhun bng cch tng vay mn. Nhng ln ny, tin t u t ch trang tri li vay. Vic ny
ch c th ko di khi th trng vn cn thanh khon. Giai on sau cung cn goi l giai on Ponzi, nh u
t hoc trong tnh trng kh khn, khng cn thanh khon, hoc c thi tham lam cc , c th dn n
la o, u dn n hin tngPonzi finance, tc i vay n tr n. Qu trnh ny xy ra trong mt mi
trng tn dng c ni lng, ngi cho vay tm moi cch trnh nhng rng buc v php l cho vay
cng nhiu cng tt. Nh vy, cch duy nht tm thi c tin thanh ton n l tm cch lin tc tng gi ti
sn u t. V nn kinh t t bn t trong bn cht mang tnh bt n, mi ln cha khng hong thnh
cng l mt ln a cc nh u t n vi nhng ri ro mi.
Minsky l mt nh nghin cu c c trong cng vic, c suy ngh c o. iu khng ngn chn cng
trnh nghin cu ca ng c nh gi l original, tiu biu nht, c trng nht v bt n ti chnh. Tuy
nhin, mi n sau ngy Minsky mt, l thuyt ca ng mi tr nn ni ting. Gn y nhiu tc gi da vo
l thuyt ca ng phn tch li cc cuc khng hong ti chnh, ho kim nghim rng rt nhiu cuc
khng khong u tri qua ba giai on, cung vi cc tnh cch ca nh u t/u c ng vi tng thi k
theo kiu phn tch Minsky: khng hong Chu 1997, Brazil 1999, Th Nh K 2000-2001, Argentina
2001, v.v
(ng Bc Hi, trng Cao ng Kinh T - i Ngoi, TPHCM)