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A qualitative risk analysis will also include the appropriate categorization of the risks, either
source-based or effect-based.
ii) Quantitative Risk Analysis
A quantitative risk analysis is a further analysis of the highest priority risks during a which a
numerical or quantitative rating is assigned in order to develop a probabilistic analysis of the
project.
A quantitative analysis:
Quantifies the possible outcomes for the project and assesses the probability of
achieving specific project objectives
Provides a quantitative approach to making decisions when there is uncertainty
Creates realistic and achievable cost, schedule or scope targets
In order to conduct a quantitative risk analysis, you will need high-quality data, a well-developed
project model, and a prioritized lists of project risks (usually from performing a qualitative risk
analysis)
3.Failure,Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA)
Also called: potential failure modes and effects analysis; failure modes, effects and criticality
analysis (FMECA).
Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) is a step-by-step approach for identifying all possible
failures in a design, a manufacturing or assembly process, or a product or service.
Failure modes means the ways, or modes, in which something might fail. Failures are any
errors or defects, especially ones that affect the customer, and can be potential or actual.
Effects analysis refers to studying the consequences of those failures.
Failures are prioritized according to how serious their consequences are, how frequently they
occur and how easily they can be detected. The purpose of the FMEA is to take actions to
eliminate or reduce failures, starting with the highest-priority ones.
Failure modes and effects analysis also documents current knowledge and actions about the risks
of failures, for use in continuous improvement. FMEA is used during design to prevent failures.
Later its used for control, before and during ongoing operation of the process. Ideally, FMEA
begins during the earliest conceptual stages of design and continues throughout the life of the
product or service.
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In addition to be above factors, the location of a unit or activity with respect to adjacent
activities is taken into consideration to account for the potential escalation of an accident. This
phenomenon is known as the Domino Effect. The units and activities, which have been selected
on the basis of the above factors, are summarized; accident scenarios are established in hazard
identification studies, while effect and damage calculations are carried out in Maximum Credible
Accident Analysis Studies.
Methodology:
Following steps is employed for visualization of MCA scenarios:
.
Fault Tree Analysis can be used to:
prioritize the contributors leading to the top event - Creating the Critical
Equipment/Parts/Events lists for different importance measures.
monitor and control the safety performance of the complex system (e.g., is a particular
aircraft safe to fly when fuel valve x malfunctions? For how long is it allowed to fly with
the valve malfunction?).
assist in designing a system. The FTA can be used as a design tool that helps to create
(output / lower level) requirements.
function as a diagnostic tool to identify and correct causes of the top event. It can help
with the creation of diagnostic manuals / processes.
prevent negative outcomes from occurring by providing a risk assessor with the probability of
occurrence. ETA uses a type of modeling technique called event tree, which branches events
from one single event using Boolean logic.
Steps to perform an event tree analysis:
1. Define the system: Define what needs to be involved or where to draw the boundaries.
2. Identify the accident scenarios: Perform a system assessment to find hazards or
accident scenarios within the system design.
3. Identify the initiating events: Use a hazard analysis to define initiating events.
4. Identify intermediate events: Identify countermeasures associated with the specific
scenario.
5. Build the event tree diagram
6. Obtain event failure probabilities: If the failure probability can not be obtained
use fault tree analysis to calculate it.
7. Identify the outcome risk: Calculate the overall probability of the event paths and
determine the risk.
8. Evaluate the outcome risk: Evaluate the risk of each path and determine its
acceptability.
9. Recommend corrective action: If the outcome risk of a path is not acceptable develop
design changes that change the risk.
10.Document the ETA: Document the entire process on the event tree diagrams and update
for new information as needed.
6) Hazard, Hazid, Hazan and Hazop part of Safety and Risk Management
1) Hazard, Hazid (hazard identification), Hazan (hazard analysis), and Hazop (hazard
and operability studies) are important safety and risk management techniques in the
industry.
For the characterization of hazards, the following are the key indicators in terms of the
situation.
Hazid is one of the best known methodologies to identify potential hazards because it provides a
structured approach to identify hazards, potential undesirable consequences, and evaluate the
severity and likelihood of what is identified. Hazid involves machine or equipment designers,
management and end users, and ensures a full identification of hazards and safeguard procedures
in a workplace.
There are the following two possible purposes in identifying hazards.
To obtain a list of hazards for subsequent evaluation using other risk assessment
techniques. This is sometimes known as failure case selection.
To perform a qualitative evaluation of the significance of the hazards and the
measures for reducing the risks from them. This is sometimes known as hazard
assessment.
Through Hazid, management identifies, in consultation with employees, contractors (as far as is
practicable) and safety personnel the following.
All reasonably foreseeable hazards at the plant that may cause a major accident
The kinds of major accidents that may occur at the plant, the likelihood of a major
accident occurring and the likely consequences of a major accident.
Hazid process is to be an ongoing to ensure existing hazards are known, and new hazards are
recognized before they are introduced due to the following.
Hazid is a transparent process and is critical to the safety of the plant, equipment, and operating
personnel. The benefits of Hazid studies include the following.
Hazan is therefore the essential prerequisite for the complete risk assessment process which
includes (i) analysis of the hazards, (ii) assessment of the risks which the hazards present, and
(iii) determination of ameliorating measures, if any, required to be taken.
Hazan is the first step in the process used for the assessment of the risk. The result of a hazard
analysis is the identification of different type of hazards. A hazard is a potential condition which
either exists or not exists (probability is 1 or 0). It may in single existence or in combination with
other hazards (sometimes called events) and conditions become an actual functional failure or
accident (mishap). The way this exactly happens in one particular sequence is called a scenario.
This scenario has a probability (between 1 and 0) of occurrence. Often a system has many
potential failure scenarios. It also is assigned a classification, based on the worst case severity of
the end condition. Risk is the combination of probability and severity. Preliminary risk levels can
be provided in the hazard analysis. The main goal of hazan is to provide the best selection of
means of controlling or eliminating the risk.
(iii)Hazard and operability study or Hazop
A hazard and operability (Hazop) study is a design review technique used for hazard
identification, and for the identification of design deficiencies which may give rise to operability
problems. It is a structured and systematic examination of a planned or existing process or
operation in order to identify and evaluate problems that may represent risks to personnel or
equipment, or prevent efficient operation. Hazop is most commonly applied to systems which
transfer or process hazardous substances, or activities where the operations involved can be
hazardous and the consequences of failure to control hazards may be significant in terms of
damage to life, the environment or property. A hazop study is carried out using a structured
approach by an experienced multi-discipline team, facilitated by a hazop leader. The hazop
technique is qualitative, and aims to stimulate the imagination of participants to identify potential
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hazards and operability problems. The relevant international standard calls for team members to
display intuition and good judgment and for the meetings to be held in a climate of positive
thinking and frank discussion. The hazop technique was initially developed to analyze chemical
process systems and mining operation process but has later been extended to other types of
systems and also to complex operations such as steel plant operation and to use software to
record the deviation and consequence.
Hazop is a structured and systematic technique for system examination and risk management. In
particular, Hazop is often used as a technique for identifying potential hazards in a system and
identifying operability problems likely to lead to nonconforming products. Hazop is based on a
theory that assumes risk events are caused by deviations from design or operating intentions.
Identification of such deviations is facilitated by using sets of guide words as a systematic list
of deviation perspectives. This approach is a unique feature of the Hazop methodology that helps
stimulate the imagination of team members when exploring potential deviations.
As a risk assessment tool, Hazop is often described as the following.
A brainstorming technique.
A qualitative risk assessment tool.
An inductive risk assessment tool, meaning that it is a bottom-up risk identification
approach, where success relies on the ability of subject matter experts to predict
deviations based on past experiences and general subject matter expertise
common base for communication, cooperation, and planning for greater accident control. At the
same time, the disciplined MORT format has shown flexibility in rapid evaluation and
assimilation of new experience, judgment, findings or technology. Specific safety innovation and
acceptance methods and projects have been outlined for transition to a comprehensive,
superlative safety system -- for the long term a "safer way of life.
UNIT 3
Accident or incident investigation
An accident is an unplanned/undesired event that results in a personal injury or illness, or in
damage to property, process or the environment.
An incident is an unplanned/undesired event that has the potential to result in an injury, illness,
or property damage.
An incident usually refers to an unexpected event that did not cause injury or damage this time
but had the potential. "Near miss" or "dangerous occurrence" are also terms for an event that
could have caused harm but did not.
Please note: The term incident is used in some situations and jurisdictions to cover both an
"accident" and "incident". It is argued that the word "accident" implies that the event was related
to fate or chance. When the root cause is determined, it is usually found that many events were
predictable and could have been prevented if the right actions were taken -- making the event not
one of fate or chance (thus, the word incident is used). For simplicity, we will use the term
accident to mean all of the above events.
The information that follows is intended to be a general guide for supervisors or joint
occupational health and safety committee members. When accidents are investigated, the
emphasis should be concentrated on finding the root cause of the accident rather than the
investigation procedure itself so you can prevent it from happening again. The purpose is to find
facts that can lead to actions, not to find fault. Always look for deeper causes. Do not simply
record the steps of the event.
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Reportable accidents
In addition to accidents that result in injury, there are legal requirements to report accidents to the
MOL. These include fatalities, critical injuries, occupational illness and the following prescribed
incidents:
There is a legal requirement to not only report what happened, but also the steps taken to prevent
a recurrence. It is wise to investigate these events to see if they were the result of unforeseen,
isolated circumstance or if they resulted from a breakdown or oversight in the company's health
and safety program.
Regarding the other key points, the company's program should identify who should do the
investigation, the training requirements (Accident Investigation is part of several other training
programs, such as IHSA's Construction Health & Safety Rep and Basics of Supervising
Programs as well as a separate course). It should also identify who reviews the investigation
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report and is responsible for ensuring that follow-up is done regarding any corrective
actions/deficiencies that were found.
An investigator who believes that accidents are caused by unsafe conditions will likely try to
uncover conditions as causes. On the other hand, one who believes they are caused by unsafe
acts will attempt to find the human errors that are causes. Therefore, it is necessary to examine
some underlying factors in a chain of events that ends in an accident.
4. Accident or incident investigation purpose
The important point is that even in the most seemingly straightforward accidents, seldom, if
ever, is there only a single cause. For example, an "investigation" which concludes that an
accident was due to worker carelessness, and goes no further, fails to seek answers to several
important questions such as:
Was the worker distracted? If yes, why was the worker distracted?
An inquiry that answers these and related questions will probably reveal conditions that are more
open to correction than attempts to prevent "carelessness".
5. Accident or Incident Investigation Process
The steps in accident investigation are simple: the accident investigators gather
information, analyze it, draw conclusions, and make recommendations. Although the
procedures are straightforward, each step can have its pitfalls. As mentioned above, an
open mind is necessary in accident investigation: preconceived notions may result in
some wrong paths being followed while leaving some significant facts uncovered. All
possible causes should be considered. Making notes of ideas as they occur is a good
practice but conclusions should not be drawn until all the information is gathered.
Injured workers(s)
The most important immediate tasks--rescue operations, medical treatment of the injured,
and prevention of further injuries--have priority and others must not interfere with these
activities. When these matters are under control, the investigators can start their work.
Physical Evidence
Before attempting to gather information, examine the site for a quick overview, take steps
to preserve evidence, and identify all witnesses. In some jurisdictions, an accident site
must not be disturbed without prior approval from appropriate government officials such
as the coroner, inspector, or police. Physical evidence is probably the most noncontroversial information available. It is also subject to rapid change or obliteration;
therefore, it should be the first to be recorded. Based on your knowledge of the work
process, you may want to check items such as:
positions of injured workers
equipment being used
materials or chemicals being used
safety devices in use
position of appropriate guards
position of controls of machinery
damage to equipment
housekeeping of area
weather conditions
lighting levels
noise levels
time of day
You may want to take photographs before anything is moved, both of the general area and
specific items. Later careful study of these may reveal conditions or observations missed
previously. Sketches of the accident scene based on measurements taken may also help in
subsequent analysis and will clarify any written reports. Broken equipment, debris, and
samples of materials involved may be removed for further analysis by appropriate
experts. Even if photographs are taken, written notes about the location of these items at
the accident scene should be prepared.
Eyewitness Accounts
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Although there may be occasions when you are unable to do so, every effort should be
made to interview witnesses. In some situations witnesses may be your primary source of
information because you may be called upon to investigate an accident without being
able to examine the scene immediately after the event. Because witnesses may be under
severe emotional stress or afraid to be completely open for fear of recrimination,
interviewing witnesses is probably the hardest task facing an investigator.
Witnesses should be kept apart and interviewed as soon as possible after the accident. If
witnesses have an opportunity to discuss the event among themselves, individual
perceptions may be lost in the normal process of accepting a consensus view where doubt
exists about the facts.
Witnesses should be interviewed alone, rather than in a group. You may decide to
interview a witness at the scene of the accident where it is easier to establish the positions
of each person involved and to obtain a description of the events. On the other hand, it
may be preferable to carry out interviews in a quiet office where there will be fewer
distractions. The decision may depend in part on the nature of the accident and the mental
state of the witnesses.
Interviewing
Interviewing is an art that cannot be given justice in a brief document such as this, but a
few do's and don'ts can be mentioned. The purpose of the interview is to establish an
understanding with the witness and to obtain his or her own words describing the event:
DO...
put the witness, who is probably upset, at ease
emphasize the real reason for the investigation, to determine what happened and why
let the witness talk, listen
confirm that you have the statement correct
try to sense any underlying feelings of the witness
make short notes or ask someone else on the team to take them during the interview
ask if it is okay to record the interview, if you are doing so
close on a positive note
DO NOT...
intimidate the witness
interrupt
prompt
ask leading questions
show your own emotions
jump to conclusions
Ask open-ended questions that cannot be answered by simply "yes" or "no". The
actual questions you ask the witness will naturally vary with each accident, but there are
some general questions that should be asked each time:
Where were you at the time of the accident?
What were you doing at the time?
What did you see, hear?
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What were the environmental conditions (weather, light, noise, etc.) at the time?
What was (were) the injured worker(s) doing at the time?
In your opinion, what caused the accident?
How might similar accidents be prevented in the future?
If you were not at the scene at the time, asking questions is a straightforward approach to
establishing what happened. Obviously, care must be taken to assess the credibility of any
statements made in the interviews. Answers to a first few questions will generally show
how well the witness could actually observe what happened.
Another technique sometimes used to determine the sequence of events is to re-enact or
replay them as they happened. Obviously, great care must be taken so that further injury
or damage does not occur. A witness (usually the injured worker) is asked to reenact in
slow motion the actions that preceded the accident.
Background Information
A third, and often an overlooked source of information, can be found in documents such as
technical data sheets, health and safety committee minutes, inspection reports, company policies,
maintenance reports, past accident reports, formalized safe-work procedures, and training
reports. Any pertinent information should be studied to see what might have happened, and what
changes might be recommended to prevent recurrence of similar accidents.
immediate causes: the agent of injury or ill health (the blade, the substance, the dust etc);
underlying causes: unsafe acts and unsafe conditions (the guard removed, the ventilation
switched off etc);
root causes: the failure from which all other failings grow, often remote in time and space
from the adverse event (eg failure to identify training needs and assess competence, low
priority given to risk assessment etc).
To prevent adverse events, you need to provide effective risk control measures which
address the immediate, underlying and root causes.
The domino theory
According to H.W. Heinrich (1931), who developed the so-called domino theory, 88 of all
accidents are caused by unsafe acts of people, 10% by unsafe actions and 2% by acts of God.
He proposed a five-factor accident sequence in which each factor would actuate the next step
in the manner of toppling dominoes lined up in a row. The sequence of accident factors is as
follows:
1.
ancestry
and
social
2.
worker
3.
unsafe
act
together
with
mechanical
4.
accident
5. damage or injury.
environment
fault
and
physical
hazard
In the same way that the removal of a single domino in the row would interrupt the sequence of
toppling, Heinrich suggested that removal of one of the factors would prevent the accident and
resultant injury; with the key domino to be removed from the sequence being number 3.
Although Heinrich provided no data for his theory, it nonetheless represents a useful point to
start
discussion
and
a
foundation
for
future
research.
Task
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For most of these questions, an important follow-up question is "If not, why not?"
Material
To seek out possible causes resulting from the equipment and materials used, investigators might
ask:
Again, each time the answer reveals an unsafe condition, the investigator must ask why this
situation was allowed to exist.
Environment
The physical environment, and especially sudden changes to that environment, are factors that
need to be identified. The situation at the time of the accident is what is important, not what the
"usual" conditions were. For example, accident investigators may want to know:
Personnel
The physical and mental condition of those individuals directly involved in the event must be
explored. The purpose for investigating the accident is not to establish blame against someone
but the inquiry will not be complete unless personal characteristics are considered. Some factors
will remain essentially constant while others may vary from day to day:
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Management
Management holds the legal responsibility for the safety of the workplace and therefore the role
of supervisors and higher management and the role or presence of management systems must
always be considered in an accident investigation. Failures of management systems are often
found to be direct or indirect factors in accidents. Ask questions such as:
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should have a person assigned ultimate responsibility for the action, a completion date set and a
place to mark completion of the item.
11.Incident Investigation Process Diagram
Prepare
1)Determine:
Who conducts and participates in investigation Prepare investigation kit
What incidents to investigate
2)Enact
Arrange for first aid or medical treatment of injured person(s)
Secure the scene
Collect information
3)Analyze
Review documentation
Prepare report
Communicate report
4) Correct
Implement corrective actions
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Act
1860
and
the
Bombay
Public
Trust
Act
1950.
To fulfill its objective NSC carries out various activities. These include organising and
conducting specialised training courses, conferences, seminars & workshops; conducting
consultancy studies such as safety audits, hazard evaluation & risk assessment; designing and
developing HSE promotional materials & publications; facilitating organisations in celebrating
various campaigns e.g. Safety Day, Fire Service Week, World Environment Day. A computerised
Management Information Service has been setup for collection, retrieval and dissemination of
information
on
HSE
aspects.
To its credit, NSC has successfully organised many national and international conferences e.g.
XIII World Congress (1993) and XI APOSHO Conference (1995) and implemented many a
prestigious project. It also serves as a gateway to the state-of-art information on HSE aspects at
the
international
level.
In the course of its services for the last 45 years, it has built up technical expertise and
competence to meet the emerging challenges in the HSE aspects due to continuous advancements
in
technologies.
Starting with modest facilities in a very limited office accommodation provided by the Ministry
of Labour in Mumbai, it has now built with its own resources, its Headquarters & Institute
building with modern facilities in Navi Mumbai to meet the demands for its services by the
members, which have increased manifold over these years and to serve them more effectively. It
has thus joined the elite group of a few Councils in the world having their own premises.
It has been doing dedicated service to the nation in developing and leading the voluntary
movement under the able guidance of the Governing Body since 1966.
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