Rtep111 PDF

PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
M. A. BOATENG (MPHIL)
PROBABILITY
RANDOM EXPERIMENTS, SAMPLE SPACE AND EVENTS
Experiment: An experiment is any process that generates well-defined outcomes.
There are two types of experiments, namely deterministic and random (or chance)
experiment.
Random experiments are experiments for which outcomes are uncertain. For
example, if we record the number of road traffic accidents in Ghana everyday, we
will find a large number of variations in the number obtained each day.
On some days, many accidents will be recorded while on other days, few
accidents will be recorded.
We cannot therefore tell in advance the number of road traffic accidents in
Ghana on a given day.
OTHER EXAMPLES:
Picking a ball from a box containing 20 numbered balls, is a random experiment,
since the process can lead to one of the 20 possible outcomes.
Consider the experiment of rolling a six-sided die and observing the number
which appears on the uppermost face of the die. The result can be any of the
numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,6. This is a random experiment since the outcome is
uncertain.
If we measure the distance between two points A and B, many times, under the
same conditions, we expect to have the same result. This is therefore NOT a
random experiment but a deterministic experiment.
ACTIVITY: Give some examples of random experiments.
SAMPLE SPACE
The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment is called the Sample Space of
the experiment, since it consists of all happenings when a sample is taken. A
sample space is usually denoted by the letter .
Each outcome in a sample space is called an element or a member of the sample
space, or a sample point.
Example:
Consider the experiment of rolling a red die and a green die and observing the
number which appears on the uppermost face of each die. The sample space of the
experiment consists of an array of 36 outcomes.
Activity: Obtain the sample space of the above
OTHER EXAMPLES
A toss of a die and coin simultaneously gives the result,
= 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Where H is for a head appearing and T for a tail appearing on the coin whereas
1,2,6 are for the appearance on the die.
Drawing a card from a packet of playing cards has a sample space with 52 cards,
made up 13 Heart, 13 Spade, 13 Diamond and 13 Club cards
The results of two and three tosses of a coin give the sample spaces:
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}
A sample space is said to be a finite sample space if it consists of a finite number

of elements.
It is a discrete sample space if the elements can be placed in a one-to-one

correspondence with the positive integers or if it is finite.
If the elements (points) of a sample space are intervals on the number line, the
sample space is said to be a continuous sample space.
EVENT
An event is a subset of a sample space. An event can also be defined as a
collection of one or more outcomes from an experiment It is denoted by a capital
letter. For example we may have:
The event of observing exactly two heads in three tosses of a coin,
A = {HHT, HTH, THH}
The event of obtaining a total score of 8 on two tosses of a die,
B = {(2,6), (3,5), (4,4), (5,3), (6,2)}
A newly married couple planning to have three children. The event of the family
having two girls is D = {BGG, GBG, GGB}
Activity: Obtain the results above explicitly.
OPERATIONS ON EVENTS
Since an event is a subset of a sample space, we can combine events to form new
events using various set operations.
The sample space is considered as the universal set. If A and B are two events
defined on the sample space, then:
denotes the event A or B or both. Thus, the event occurs if either
A occurs or B occurs or both A and B occur.
denotes the event both A and B. Thus, the event occurs if both A
and B occur.
( ) denotes the event which occurs if and only if A does not occur.
Example:
Let P be the event that an individual selected at random from an RTEP class smokes
cigarettes.
Let Q be the event that an individual selected from the same class drinks alcoholic
beverages.
Then is the event that an individual selected either smokes cigarettes or
drinks alcoholic beverages or smokes cigarettes and drinks alcoholic beverages.
is the event that an individual selected smokes cigarettes and drinks

alcoholic beverages.
Example:
If = : 3 < < 9 and = : 5 < 12 , then:
= : 3 < < 12 and = : 5 < 9
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE (DISJOINT) EVENTS

Any two events that cannot occur simultaneously, so that their intersection is the
impossible event, are said to be mutually exclusive. Thus, two events A and B are
mutually exclusive if and only if = .
TRIAL: A trial is a single performance of an experiment (that is, a repetition of an
experiment).
Outcome: The possible result of each trial of an experiment is called an outcome.

When an outcome of an experiment has equal chance of occurring as the others
the outcomes are said to be equally likely. For example, the toss of a coin and a
die yield the possible outcomes in the sets, {H, T} and {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} and a play
of a football match yields {win (W), loss(L), draw(D)}
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EXHAUSTIVE EVENTS
Let A, B and D be mutually exclusive events of the sample space (S), such that they
partition the sample space ( = ). Then A, B and D are said to be
exhaustive events.
INDEPENDENT EVENTS
Two or more events are said to be independent if the probability of occurrence of
one does not depend on the occurrence or non-occurrence of the other (s).
Mathematically, two events A and B are independent if and only if :
= . ()
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THE PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT

The probability of an event A, denoted P(A) gives the numerical measure of the
likelihood of occurrence of the event A which is such that 0 () 1.
If = 0, the event A is said to be impossible to occur.
If = 1, the event A is said to be certain.
If = 0.5, then event A is as likely to occur as it is not to occur.
There are three main schools of thought in defining and interpreting the probability
of an event.
These are the:
Classical Definition, Empirical Concept and the Subjective Approach. The first two
form the Objective Approach.
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THE CLASSICAL PROBABILITY DEFINITION

The Classical probability is based on the assumption that all the possible outcomes
of the experiment are equally likely. For example, if an experiment can lead to n
mutually exclusive and equally likely outcomes, then the probability of the event A
is defined by:
()

=
=
()
The classical definition of probability of event A is referred to as priori probability
because it is determined before any experiment is performed to observe the
outcomes of event A.
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THE EMPIRICAL CONCEPT

This concept uses the relative frequencies of past occurrences to develop
probabilities for future. The probability of an event A happening in future is
determined by observing what fraction of the time similar events happened in the
past. That is:

=

The relative frequency of the occurrence of the event A used to estimate P(A)
becomes more accurate if the trials are repeated for a large number of times.
The relative frequency approach of defining P(A) is sometimes called posterior
probability since P(A) is determined only after even A is observed.
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EXAMPLE
In studying the peak demand at a power plant, an electrical engineer observed that
on 85 of 120 days randomly selected from past records, the peak demand occurred
between 6:30 pm and 8:00pm. The probability of this occurring is :
85
120
= 0.708, which is based on repeated experimentation and observation.
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THE SUBJECTIVE DEFINITION

The Subjective concept is based on the degree of belief (personal opinion) through
the evidence available. The probability of an event A may therefore be assessed
through experience, intuitive judgement or expertise.
For example;
Determining the probability of containing an oil spill before it causes widespread
damage, getting a cure for a disease or it raining today may require considering
some factors.
An environmental scientist called upon to assess the situation will do a prediction
based on informed personal opinion on the type of spill, the amount of oil spilled,
the weather condition during clean-up operation and nearness to a beach.
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EXAMPLES ON PROBABILITY (CLASSICAL)
Consider the problem of a couple planning to have three children, assuming each
child born is equally likely to be a boy(B) or a girl(G).
(i)
List all the possible outcomes in this experiment.
(ii)
What is the probability of the couple having exactly two girls?
SOLUTION:
Let B=event of getting a boy; G=event of getting a girl
(i) Sample space = {, , , , , , , }
(ii) Let A be the event of the couple having exactly two girls. Then,
= , ,
Then =
()
()
3
8
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SOME PROBABILITY LAWS

AXIOMS OF PROBABILITY
Let S be the sample space of an experiment and P be a set function which assigns a
number P(A) to every . Then the function P(A) is said to be a probability
function if it satisfies the following axioms:
Axiom 1: = 1
Axiom 2: () 0 for every event A
Axiom 3: If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then = + ()
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The following theorems arise from the axioms:

Theorem 1: If is the empty set, then = 0
Theorem 2: If is the complement of an event A, then = 1 ()
Theorem 3: If , the
Theorem 4: If A and B are two events, then = ( )

Theorem 5: If A and B are any two events, then
= + ( )
Corollary: For any events 1 , 2 3 ,
P A1 A2 A3
= P A1 + P A2 + P A3 P A1 A2 P A1 A3 P A2 A3
+ P A1 A2 A3
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THE ADDITION RULE

Let 1 , 2 , , be events of the sample space S. Then,
1 2 = 1 + 2 (1 2 )
P A1 A2 A3 = P A1 + P A2 + P A3 P A1 A2 P A1 A3
P A2 A3 + P A1 A2 A3
If the events 1 , 2 , , are mutually exclusive, then
1 2 = 1 + 2
P A1 A2 A3 = P A1 + P A2 + P A3
P A1 A2 An = P A1 + P A2 + + P An
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CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
If A and B are any two events defines on the same sample space, S, the conditional
probability of A given B is defined as:
( )
=
,
>0
()
Example:
Let A and B be events such that; P(A)=0.6, P(B)=0.5 and = 0.8. Find the
probability of A given B.
SOLUTION:
= + = 0.6 + 0.5 0.8 = 0.3
0.3
=
= 0.6
0.5
Therefore, the probability of A given B is 0.6.
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THE MULTIPLICATION THEOREM
If 1 , 2 , , are events of the sample space S, then

P A1 A2 = 1 . 2 1
P A1 A2 3 = 1 . 2 1 . 3 A1 A2
P A1 A2 = 1 . 2 1 . 3 A1 A2
1 2 1
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EXAMPLE:
Suppose we have a fuse box containing 20 fuses, 5 of which are defective. If 2 fuses
are selected at random and removed from the box in succession without replacing
the first, what is the probability that both fuses are defective?
SOLUTION:
Let A denote the event that the first fuse is defective and B the event that the
second fuse is defective.
5
.
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To find ( ). The probability of first removing a defective fuse is

If the first
fuse is defective, then the probability of removing a second defective fuse from the
4
remaining 4 is .
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By the multiplication rule; = P A P =
5
20
4
19
1
19
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BAYES THEOREM
THE TOTAL PROBABILITY RULE
Suppose the sample space, S, is partitioned mutually exclusive events, 1 , 2 , , .
Let B be any other event in S intersecting with all n events. Then we have;
= = A1 A2 An
= (A1 ) A2 A3 (An )
Where Ai , for = 1,2,3, , are also mutually exclusive events, then
P = A1 + A2 + A3 + + (An )
= 1 . 1 + 2 . 2 + 3 . 3 + + .
() =
.
=1
The above is the total probability rule.

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EXAMPLE:
In a certain assembly plant, three machines A, B and C make 30%, 45% and 25%
respectively of the products. It is known from past experience that 2% of the
products made by the machine A, 3% of the products made by the machine B and
2% of the products made by the machine C are defective. If a finished product is
selected at random, what is the probability that it is defective?
SOLUTION:
Let 1 denote the event of the product being made by A
Let 2 denote the event of the product being made by B
Let 3 denote the event of the product being made by C
Let denote the event of the product being defective
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1 = 0.3, 2 = 0.45, 3 = 0.25,

1 = 0.02, 2 = 0.03, 3 = 0.02
1 , 2 and 3 form a partition of the sample space. Hence,
= 1 . 1 + 2 . 2 + 3 . 3
= 0.3 0.02 + 0.45 0.03 + 0.25 0.02
= 0.0245
The probability that a finished product selected at random is defective is 0.0245.
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BAYES THEOREM
Let 1 , 2 , , be a collection of events which partition a sample space S. Let B
be an event defined on S such that () 0. Then for any of the events , =
1,2, ,

=
=1 .
= 1,2, ,
Example:
A consulting firm rents cars from three agencies: 30% from agency A, 20% from
agency B and 50% from agency C. 15% of the cars from A, 10% of the cars from B
and 6% of the cars from C have bad tyres. If a car rented by the firm has bad tyres,
find the probability that it came from agency C.
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Let 1 be the event that the car is from agency A

Let 2 be the event that the car is from agency B
Let 3 be the event that the car is from agency C
Let be the event that the car has bad tyres
We are looking for 3 , given 1 = 0.3, 2 = 0.2, 3 = 0.5
1 = 0.15, 2 = 0.1 and 3 = 0.06
1 , 2 and 3 are mutually exclusive and 1 + 2 + 3 = 1. 1 , 2 and
3 form a partition of the sample space. Hence by Bayes theorem,
3 3
3 =
1 . 1 + 2 . 2 + 3 . 3
0.5 0.06
=
= 0.3158
0.3 0.15 + 0.2 0.1 + (0.5 0.06)
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RANDOM VARIABLES AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
RANDOM VARIABLE
A random variable is a function that assigns real number to outcomes of a
random experiment.
A random variable is denoted by an uppercase letter, such as X, and a lower case
letter such as x is used to represent a possible value of X. The possible values of a
random variable X are referred to as the range of X.
Example:
In a study on operation in a supermarket, the random experiment here might
involve the random selection of a customer leaving the store. The potential
variables could be the number of items bought (x) and the time spent (y). It should
be noted that until a customer is selected there is uncertainty about the values of x
and y.
Activity: Give other examples of random variables.
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Random variables are classified as either discrete or continuous random variables.

DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES
A random variable is discrete if it can assume a finite or a countably infinite set of
values.
Example:
the number of errors a machine makes in an assembly operation
the number of customers waiting to be served at a supermarket
the number of accidents at a particular plant for a given period
the number errors detected in accounting records etc.
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CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLES

If the range of a random variable X contains an interval (either finite or infinite) of
real numbers, then X is a continuous random variable.
Examples:
The length of time to complete an operation at a manufacturing plant
The heights or weights of a group of people
The amount of energy produced by a utility company for a given period
The length of life span of an electric bulb
The length of time a customers waits for service at a counter etc
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PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
Probability distributions provide a means of determining the probability of different
values of the random variable occurring in an experiment. They are used in
statistics to describe population data.
The probability distribution of a random variable X, denoted p(x) or f(x) is a
description of the set of possible values of X along with their probabilities.
TYPES OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
A probability distribution is either discrete or continuous.
DISCRETE DISTRIBUTIONS: The probability distribution for a discrete random
variable X, is a formula, table or graph that specifies the probability associated with
each possible value of X.
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X
pf (x)
For example:
A study of 300 families in a community conducted, noting the number of children X
and its occurrence f, in each family results in the following distribution;
X
54
114
72
42
12
p(x)
0.18
0.38
0.24
0.14
0.04
0.02
Definition (Probability Mass Function):

A function p(x) is the probability mass function of a discrete random variable X if it
has the following properties:
() 0 for all x
= 1
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EXAMPLE:
Determine whether each of the following can serve as pmfs of a discrete random
variable:
1
(a) = 2 2 ,
(b) =
(c) =
1
+
10
1 2
,
20
1 ,
= 1,2,3,4
= 0,1,2,3,4
= 0,1,2,3,4
SOLUTION:
(a) NOT a pmf
(b) Not Pmf
(c) NOT a pmf
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CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

The relative frequency behavior of continuous random variable X, is modeled by a
function f(x) which is more often called the probability density function (pdf).
Definition(Probability density function):
The probability distribution f(x) is said to be probability density function of the
continuous random variable, X if for an interval of real numbers [a,b], the following
properties are satisfied;
() 0
= 1
Activity: What happens to =
if = ?
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EXAMPLE:
Show that
1 2
0<<3
= 9 ,
0,
Is the p.d.f of a continuous random variable X.
SOLUTION:
It is clear that () 0 for all x
1 2
=
= 1
0 9
Hence, f(x) is the p.d.f of a continuous random variable.
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THE CUMMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION
There are many problems where we may wish to compute the probability that the
observed value of a random variable X will be less than or equal to some real
number x.
For example;
what are the chances that a certain candidate will get no more than 30% of votes
in an election?
What are the chances that the prices of gold will remain at or below $800 per
ounce?
We define () to be the cumulative distribution function of X.
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Definition:
The cumulative distribution function () of a discrete random variable X with
probability mass function p(x) is defined by:
= =
( )

Definition:
The cumulative distribution function () of a continuous random variable X with
probability density function f(x) is defined by:
= =
Where < < , f x =
()
and 1 2 = 2 (1 )
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In each case, F(x) is a monotonic increasing function with the following properties;
() () whenever
The limit of () to the left is 0 and to the right is 1. ie.
lim = 0 lim = 1
0 () 1
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ASSIGNMENT
Construct probability distributions for the following random variables:
(i) The number of heads when four fair coins are tossed.
(ii) The difference between the results of two fair dice rolled together.
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EXAMPLES
The number of telephone calls received in an office between 12:00noon and
1:00pm has the probability function:
x
p(x)
0.05
0.20
0.25
0.20
0.10
0.15
0.05
(i) Verify that it is a probability mass function.

(ii) Find the probability that there will be three or more calls.
Verify that the probability distribution function is a probability mass function
1
2 + 3 , = 1,2,3
= 21
0,
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Let X be a continuous random variable with probability density function

1
03
= 6 + ,
0,
Evaluate k, hence find (1 2).

Determine the value of k in the p.d.f below and hence find (1 2) and
>2 ;
,
0 3, > 0
= 3 4 ,
3<4
0,
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Given the probability mass function:

x
p(x)
1
4
1
8
1
2
1
8
Find the cumulative distribution function.

SOLUTION:
= =
()
=0
1
F 0 =p 0 =
4
43
1 1 3
1 = 0 + 1 = + =
4 8 8
1 1 1 7
2 = 0 + 1 + 2 = + + =
4 8 2 8
1 1 1 1
3 = 0 + 1 + 2 + 3 = + + + =1
4 8 2 8
Hence the cumulative distribution is:
X
F(X)
1
4
3
8
2
7
8
3
1
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A continuous random variable has the p.d.f

1 2
1 < < 2
= 3 ,
0,
(a) Find the CDF.

(b) Find (0 < 1)
SOLUTION:
(a) If 1, then
If 1 < < 2, then
0 = 0
1 2
=
=
0 +

1 3
45
1 3
9
If x 2, then
1 3
= ( +1)
9
1 2
=
0 +
+
1 3
1 3
=0+
9
0
2
+0=1
1
Therefore,
0,
1 3
=
( +1) ,
9
1,
1
1 < < 2
2
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(b) To find (0 < 1)

1 2
1 2
1
= 1 0 = 1 +1 0 +0 =
9
9
9
Find the CDF for the probability distribution below:

1
,
02
2
0,
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EXPECTED VALUE AND VARIANCE OF RANDOM VARIABLES

The expectation or the expected value (mean) 0f a random variable, x is defined by:
= =
= =
()
if x is discrete
if x is continuous and
The variance of the random variable, x with probability distribution, () or () is

defined by;
2 = = ( )2 = ( 2 ) 2 where
=
2 () =
(
2 2 if x is discrete
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2 2
For , if x is continuous.
The standard deviation of x is the square root of x. ie,
= ()
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MEDIAN AND MODE OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

The median of a distribution of the random variable x is that value of = such
that = 0.5 or close to it. The median of the random
variable, x with probability distribution, () is obtained by the
equation:
(i)
(ii)
1
(or close to it) if x is discrete.
2
1
= , if x is continuous and is such
2
that
The mode of a distribution of a random variable x is that value of = 0 that

maximizes the probability distribution function, (). If there is only one
such x, it is called the mode of the distribution.
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QUESTIONS:
Compute the expected value and standard deviation of the random variable X with
the following distributions;
1.
x
p(x)
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.1
Ans: mean = 3.0

Variance = 1.4, = 1.4 = 1.1832
2.
6 1 ,
0<<1
=
0,
Ans:mean = 0.5
Variance = 0.05, = 0.05 = 0.224
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PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS (BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION)

A random variable X has the binomial distribution with parameters n and p if

= =

,
Where = 1 and
= 0,1,2 ,
!
!()!
The distribution is called the binomial distribution because for = 0,1,2 , , the
values of the probabilities are the successive terms of the binomial expansion of
( + ) .
52
The following are conditions under which the binomial distribution arises:
The number of observations ,n, is fixed (n Bernoulli trials)
Each observation is independent.
Each observation represents one of two outcomes (success or failure).
The probability of success, p, is the same for each outcome.
If these conditions are met, then X has a binomial distribution with parameters n
and p, abbreviated B(n,p).
Example: The probability that a certain kind of component will survive a given
3
shock test is . Find the probability that exactly two of the next four components
4
tested survived the shock.
53
SOLUTION:
=4
=
3
4
=2
Thus,
=2 =
4
2
3 2 1 2
4
4
4!
2!2!
9
16
1
16
27
128
Assignment 2: In a certain hospital, 53% of all recorded births are boys. If six babies
born in the hospital are selected at random, find the probability that:
(a) Two of the babies selected are boys.
(b) More than four of the babies selected are boys.
54
MEAN AND VARIANCE OF THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

If X has the binomial distribution with parameters n and p, then :
= and = , = 1
TRY:
Prove the above.
Example: A resistor is known to be 80% effective in its usage. If the resistor is used
in 50 appliances, how many of the appliances are expected to be functional ?
SOLUTION:
= 50 ; = 0.8;
= = 50 0.8 = 40
40 out of the appliances will be functional.
55
ACTIVITY
1. A fair coin is tossed 5 times. Find the probability of obtaining;
i.
Exactly 2 heads
ii. Exactly 1 head

iii. No head
iv. At least one head

v. At most 2 heads
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2. It is known that 20% of parts produced by a certain machine are

defective. If six parts produced by the machine are selected
randomly from a days run, find the probability that;
i. Six of the parts are defective
ii. None of them is defective
iii. Exactly 2 are defective.
: .
: .
: .
3. A fair die is thrown five times. Calculate, correct to three decimal

places, the probability of obtaining:
i. At most two sixes.
: .
ii. Exactly three sixes. : .
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4. A machine that manufactures engine parts has an average

probability of 0.2 of breaking down. If the factory has 10 of these
machines, what is the probability that at least 8 will not
breakdown?
: .
5. In an examination, 60% of the candidates passed.Find the
probability that a random sample of 15 candidates from this class
will include at most 3 failures.
: .
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THE POISSON DISTRIBUTION

A random variable X has the Poisson distribution with parameter
(>0) if its pmf is given by:

= =
,
!
= 0,1,2,
The Poisson distribution is used to describe the number of times a

random event occurs in an interval of time or space.
59
Examples:
Number of patients arriving at a clinic in a given time interval
Number of admissions of a hospital in a given time interval
Number of incoming telephone calls within a fixed interval at
certain switch boards.
ACTIVITY: Give examples of events that may be modeled using the
Poisson distribution.
60
Example:
In a certain country, the average number of deaths from a certain
disease has been 10 per year. If the number of deaths from this
disease follows the Poisson distribution, find the probability of;
(a) At least two deaths from the disease in 3 months.
(b) At most one death from the disease in 2 months.
SOLUTION:
Let X be the number of deaths from the disease in 3 months. On the
3
average, there are 10 = 2.5 deaths from the disease in 3
12
months.
61
Thus, X follows the Poisson distribution with mean () 2.5.

2.5 2.5
= =
,
= 0,1,2,
!
Hence,
(a)
2 = 1 ( 1)
=1 =0 =1
= 1 2.5 2.5 2.5

= 1 3.5 2.5 = 0.7127
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(b)Let Y denote the number of deaths in 2 months. The average

2
5
number of deaths in 2 months = 10 = .
12
Thus,
= =
5
3
5
3
= 0,1,2,3,
1 = =0 + =1
5
5 5 8 5
+ 3= 3
3
3
= 0.5037
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MEAN AND VARIANCE OF THE POISSON DISTRIBUTION

If X follows the Poisson distribution with parameter , then
= =
Assignment: Prove that the above.
Theorem (The distribution of the sum of independent Poisson
random variables)
Let 1 , 2 , , be independent Poisson random variables with
means 1 , 2 , , , respectively. Then Y = 1 + 2 , + + has
the Poisson distribution with mean =1 .
64
THE POISSON APPROXIMATION TO THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

Occasionally, one comes across a binomial random variable with a
very large n. If binomial tables do not exist for this value of n, then
calculating probabilities associated with the variable becomes
tedious. It is sometimes possible to approximate the binomial
distribution by the Poisson distribution. The following theorem
shows that as n becomes large and p becomes small, the binomial
probability mass function approaches that of the Poisson
distribution. Its proof is based on the following result;
lim 1
65
Theorem:
Let X be a random variable with parameters n and p. If n
approaches and p approaches 0 in such a way that np remains
constant at some value > 0, then:

lim = = lim (; , )
= 0,1,2,
!
Example:
Suppose that on the average one person in 1000 makes a numerical
error in preparing his or her income tax return. If 8000 forms are
selected at random and examined, find the probability that less
than 7 of the forms contain an error.
66
If X of the 8000 forms contain an error, then X has the binomial

distribution with parameters = 8000 = 0.001. Hence,
6
8000
<7 =
0.001 0.999 8000
=0
Binomial tables do not exist for calculating this probability.

Moreover, it is cumbersome to calculate the probabilities. Since =
8000 is large and = 0.001 is small,

( = )
,
= 0,1,2,
!
Where =8000 0.001 = 8, thus,
6
8 8
<7
0.313
!
=0
67
THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

The normal distribution is the most important distribution in
statistics.
A random variable X has the normal distribution with mean and
variance 2 if its pdf is given by
( )2
=

2 2
2
1
< <
The notation ~(, 2 ) means that the random variable X has

the normal distribution with mean and variance 2 .
68
PROPERTIES OF THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

The pdf is bell-shaped and is symmetrical about a vertical axis
through the mean and variance 2 .
The mode, which is the point on the horizontal axis where the
curve is a maximum, occurs at = . The mean, median and
mode are equal.
The normal curve approaches the horizontal axis asymptotically as
we proceed in either direction away from the mean.
The total area under the normal pdf and the horizontal axis is
equal to 1.
69
THE STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

The distribution of a normal random variable with = 0 and 2 =
1 is a standard normal distribution. The standard normal random
variable is denoted by Z.
Example:
If ~ 0,1 , find :
(a) 1.5
(b) 1.74
(c) > 1.86
(d) (1.97 < < 1.32)
70
SOLUTION:
(a) To find the area from the standard normal table, first locate 1.5
on the left column of the table and 0.00 from the adjacent
column. That gives 1.5 = .
(b) 1.74 is equal to the area under the shaded region from
to 1.74. Ans:0.9591
(c) > 1.86 = 1 ( 1.86), Ans:0.0314
(d) 1.97 < < 1.32 , Ans:0.8822
71
Assignment:
If ~(0,1), find the value of c such that;
> = 0.3974
< < 0.18 = 0.4197
< < = 0.99
72
Theorem:
If ~ , 2 , then =
is 0,1
From the theorem above, if ~ , 2 , then =
=
where ~ 0,1 . This probability
can be obtained by using tables.

Example:
If ~(2,16). Find
( < 3)
(1 < < 4)
( > 5)
( = 2)
73
SOLUTION:
<3 =
2
4
<
32
4
= < 0.25 , ~ 0,1

= 0.5987
1<<4 =
12
4
<
2
4
<
42
4
= 0.25 < < 0.5
= < 0.5 < 0.25 = 0.6915 0.4013 = 0.2902

>5 =
2
4
>
52
4
= > 0.75 = 1 0.75
= 1 0.7734 = 0.2266
= 2 = 0, WHY??
74
The normal distribution, under certain conditions provides a good continuous

approximation to the binomial and Poisson distributions.
NB: READING ASSIGNMENT
75

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PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

A sample space is said to be a finite sample space if it consists of a finite number

It is a discrete sample space if the elements can be placed in a one-to-one

is the event that an individual selected smokes cigarettes and drinks

MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE (DISJOINT) EVENTS

Outcome: The possible result of each trial of an experiment is called an outcome.

THE PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT

THE CLASSICAL PROBABILITY DEFINITION

THE EMPIRICAL CONCEPT

= 0.708, which is based on repeated experimentation and observation.

THE SUBJECTIVE DEFINITION

EXAMPLES ON PROBABILITY (CLASSICAL)

SOME PROBABILITY LAWS

The following theorems arise from the axioms:

Theorem 4: If A and B are two events, then = ( )

THE ADDITION RULE

THE MULTIPLICATION THEOREM

If 1 , 2 , , are events of the sample space S, then

To find ( ). The probability of first removing a defective fuse is

By the multiplication rule; = P A P =

The above is the total probability rule.

1 = 0.3, 2 = 0.45, 3 = 0.25,

Let 1 be the event that the car is from agency A

RANDOM VARIABLES AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Random variables are classified as either discrete or continuous random variables.

CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLES

Definition (Probability Mass Function):

CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Activity: What happens to =

Is the p.d.f of a continuous random variable X.

THE CUMMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION

Where < < , f x =

(i) Verify that it is a probability mass function.

Let X be a continuous random variable with probability density function

Evaluate k, hence find (1 2).

Given the probability mass function:

Find the cumulative distribution function.

A continuous random variable has the p.d.f

(a) Find the CDF.

If 1 < < 2, then

(b) To find (0 < 1)

Find the CDF for the probability distribution below:

EXPECTED VALUE AND VARIANCE OF RANDOM VARIABLES

The variance of the random variable, x with probability distribution, () or () is

MEDIAN AND MODE OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

The mode of a distribution of a random variable x is that value of = 0 that

Ans: mean = 3.0

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS (BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION)

MEAN AND VARIANCE OF THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

ii. Exactly 1 head

iv. At least one head

2. It is known that 20% of parts produced by a certain machine are

3. A fair die is thrown five times. Calculate, correct to three decimal

4. A machine that manufactures engine parts has an average

THE POISSON DISTRIBUTION

The Poisson distribution is used to describe the number of times a

Thus, X follows the Poisson distribution with mean () 2.5.

= 1 2.5 2.5 2.5

(b)Let Y denote the number of deaths in 2 months. The average

MEAN AND VARIANCE OF THE POISSON DISTRIBUTION

THE POISSON APPROXIMATION TO THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

If X of the 8000 forms contain an error, then X has the binomial

Binomial tables do not exist for calculating this probability.