AIPAC CONSERVATIVE RABBIS MEETING

REMARKS BY STU EIZENSTAT

DC CONVENTION CENTER
MARCH 2, 2015
(RECOGNIZE RABBIS SCHOENFIELD, LYLE FISHMAN, NEIL SANDLER)
I WOULD LIKE TO DISCUSS THREE ISSUES WITH YOU: RENEWED ANTISEMITISM IN EUROPE: THE IRAN NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS; AND THE U.S.ISRAEL.
I.
RENEWED ANTI-SEMITISM IN EUROPE
I AM THE LAST PERSON WHO LOOKS FOR AN ANTI-SEMITE UNDER EVERY
TREE.
1. FIVE ANTIDOTES ABOUT MY EUROPEAN EXPERIENCE
(1) US AMBASSADOR TO THE EU (1993-96): FRAN AND I TRAVELED
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EU MEMBER STATES AND LIVED IN
BRUSSELS. WE COULD ALWAYS TELL WHERE THE SYNAGOGUES AND
JEWISH DAY SCHOOLS WERE IN THE CAPITALS TO WHICH WE
VISITED BECAUSE THERE WOULD ALWAYS BE CONCRETE BARRIERS
AND HEAVILY ARMED POLICE. AT ONE LEVEL, IT WAS COMFORTING,
BUT ANOTHER DISQUIETING AND SO VERY DIFFERENT FROM OUR
EXPERIENCE IN THE US.
(2) NOT LONG AGO, I HAD BRUNCH AT THE HOME OF TWO CLOSE
FRIENDS (MARY AND FRANCOIS MOTULSKY) FROM OUR YEARS IN
BRUSSELS, AND THEIR DAUGHTER (ELISE), SON-IN-LAW AND
GRANDCHILDREN. SHE SAID TO ME, STU, WE ARE GOING TO
FLORIDA. I REPLIED I CAN UNDERSTAND THAT, THE WEATHER THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN BRUSSELS IS DISMAL. NO, WE ARE NOT GOING ON
A VACATION, WE ARE GOING PERMANENTLY. I EXPRESSED
ASTONISHMENT, SAYING THAT SHE WAS A PARTNER IN HER
FATHERS SUCCESSFUL LAW FIRM, WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO
PRACTICE LAW IN FLORIDA, AND WOULD BE DISPLACING HER
WHOLE FAMILY. SHE SAID SHE UNDERSTOOD, BUT THERE IS NO
FUTURE FOR MY CHILDREN IN BELGIUM. THEY WILL ALWAYS HAVE
PROBLEMS AS JEWS.
ANOTHER FRIEND (DAVID PARDES) TOLD ME THAT HE REMEMBERED
HIS FATHER TAKING HIM TO THE CENTRAL PARK IN BRUSSELS AFTER
THE SIX DAY WAR AND HOW ISRAEL WAS LIONIZED BY ALL THE
POLITICIANS. TODAY, THE POLITICAL CLASS INCREASING CATERS TO
THE LARGE AND GROWING MUSLIM COMMUNITY.

(3) I WAS IN BRUSSELS LAST YEAR NOT LONG AFTER THREE PEOPLE
WERE KILLED, INCLUDING TWO VISITORS FROM ISRAEL, AT THE
JEWISH MUSEUM OF BRUSSELS BY A FRENCH MUSLIM CITIZEN.
(4)
(5) IN 2014, IN MY CAPACITY AS SPECIAL ADVISER TO SECRETARY OF
STATE KERRY ON HOLOCAUST ISSUES, I NEGOTIATED AND SIGNED A
$60 MILLION AGREEMENT WITH THE FRENCH GOVERNMENT TO PAY
NON-FRENCH CITIZENS CAUGHT-UP IN DEPORTATIONS IN WORLD
WAR II. THIS REQUIRED ME TO ALSO HAVE MEETINGS AND PHONE
CALLS WITH ROGER CUKIERMAN, LONG-TIME PRESIDENT OF THE
CRIF (CONSEIL REPRESENTATIF DES INSTITUTIONS JUIVES DE
FRANCE), AND AN OLD FRIEND. HE IS NO ALARMIST. HE WAS BORN
AND WILL DIE AS PROUD FRENCH JEW. BUT HE TOLD ME THAT IN HIS
FIRST TERM AS PRESIDENT FROM 2001-2007, 90% OF THE FRENCH
JEWISH STUDENTS WENT TO PUBLIC SCHOOL; TODAY ONLY 30%
DUE, BECAUSE OF THE FEAR OF HARRASSMENT. TODAY, UNLIKE
THEN, HE SAID IT WAS UNSAFE TO WEAR A KIPOT ON THE METRO IN
PARIS. IN JANUARY 2014, THERE WAS LARGE DEMONSTRATION IN
THE CENTER OF PARIS WITH SIGNS READING JEWS, LEAVE, FRANCE
IS NOT YOUR COUNTRY.
IN FACT, THE LATEST DATA IS THAT 7000 FRENCH JEWS EMIGRATED
TO ISRAEL IN 2014, TWICE THE NUMBER IN 2013, AND IN 2015 IT IS
ANTICIPATED THE NUMBER MIGHT DOUBLE AGAIN.
(6) GREAT BRITAN. THROUGH MUTUAL FRIENDS (DAVID AND DOROTHY
HARMAN) I MET A BRITISH WOMEN AT A DINNER IN JERUSALEM
WHO TOLD ME THAT ONE OF HER DAUGHTERS, A TEACHER, WAS
ADVISED BY HER PRINCIPAL NOT TO LET HER STUDENTS KNOW SHE
WAS JEWISH, AND HER OTHER DAUGHTER WAS ASKED BY HER
PROFESSOR AT BRISTOL UNIVERSITY: ISNT IT ODD THAT NO JEWS
WERE KILLED IN THE 9/11 ATTACKS? (OF COURSE, LARGE
PERCENTAGE OF THE VICTIMS WAS JEWISH).
2. HOW DO WE EXPLAIN THIS PHENOMENOM 70 YEARS AFTER THE
SHOAH IN EUROPE? IT IS THE COMBINATION OF THREE FORCES:
FIRST, THERE IS THE EXPRESSION OF TRADITIONAL, DEEPLY
INGRAINED EUROPEAN ANTI-SEMITISM, WHICH WAS NEVER FULLY
ERASED AFTER THE END OF WORLD WAR II. THIS IS NOT THE
THEOLOGICALLY BASED ANTI SEMITISM OF PAST ERAS. THE CATHOLIC
CHURCH TO ITS CREDIT HAS HELPED REMOVE THE FALSE RELIGIOUS
STIGMAS. RATHER IT IS THE WIDELY-HELD TYPICAL STEREOTYPICAL VIEW
OF JEWS: TOO POWERFUL; CONTROL THE BANKS AND MEDIA;
AVERACIOUS; LOVES ISRAEL MORE THAN THEIR OWN COUNTRY, ETC. A
FUNDEMENTAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN EUROPE AND THE US, IS THAT

LARGE NUMBERS IN EUROPE DO NOT SEE JEWS AS A PART OF THEIR

NATION, AS PART OF US, WHILE MOST AMERICANS FEEL JEWS ARE
LOYAL AMERICANS.
IN 2012, THE ADL DID A COMPREHENSIVE SURVEY OF ANTI-SEMITIC
ATTITUDES IN 10 EUROPEAN COUNTRIES (MARCH 2012 ATTITUDES
TOWARD JEWS IN TEN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, PREPARED BY FIRST
INTERNATIONAL RESOURCES). AND THE RESULTS ARE SOBERING. MORE
THAN HALF O FTHE PEOPLE SURVEYED BELIEVE JEWS ARE MORE LOYAL
TO ISRAEL THAN TO THEIR OWN COUNTRY; MORE THAN A THIRD BELIEVE
JEWS HAVE TOO MUCH POWER IN THE BUSINESS WORLD AND IN
INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS; OVER 40% BELIEVE IT IS
PROBABLY TRUE THAT JEWS TALK TOO MUCH ABOUT THE HOLOCAUST;
ALMOST 30% SAY THEIR OPINION OF JEWS IS INFLUENCED BY THE
ACTIONS TAKEN BY ISRAEL; AND 65% OF THOSE INDICATE THEIR OPNION
OF JEWS IS WORSE AS A RESULT OF ISRAELS ACTIONS. (COMPARED TO A
2009 SURVEY, THERE HAS BEEN AN OVERALL INCREASE IN ANTI-SEMITIC
ATTITUDES, MOST DRAMATICALLY IN HUNGARY, THE UK AND SPAIN, WITH
A SLIGHT DECLINE IN AUSTRIA)
BUT NO ONE WAS PREPARED FOR THE MORE RECENT REPORT (NOVEMBER
2013) BY THE EUROPEAN UNIONS OWN AGENCY FOR FUNDAMENTAL
RIGHTS (FRA), WHICH SURVEYED SOME 6000 SELF-IDENTIFIED JEWS IN 9 EU
MEMBER STATES WHICH ARE HOME TO AROUND 90% OF EUROPES ONE
MILLION JEWS.(BELGIUM, FRANCE, GERMANY, HUNGARY, ITALY, LATVIA,
SWEDEN, AND THE UK). TWO THIRDS CONSIDERED ANTI-SEMITISM A
PROBLEM AND THREE QUARTERS INDICATED IT HAS WORSENED IN THE
PAST 5 YEARS IN THEIR COUNTRY, WITH 75% CONSIDERED ONLINE ANTISEMITISM ON THE INTERNET A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. ONE THIRD OF THE
JEWISH RESPONDENTS EXPERIENCED ONE OR MORE INCIDENTS OF
VERBAL INSULT OR HARRASSMENT IN THE PREVIOUS FIVE YEARS
BECAUSE THEY ARE JEWISH; AND ALMOST HALF WORRY ABOUT
BECOMING VICTIMS OF A VERBAL INSUT OR HARASSMENT AND A THIRD
FEAR A PHYSICAL ATTACK. ALMOST 60% HEARD OR SAW SOMEONE CLAIM
THE HOLOCAUST WAS A MYTH OR HAD BEEN EXAGGERATED. THIS HAS
HAD A CUMULATIVE EFFECT, WITH NEARLY ONE-THIRD STATING THEY
HAVE CONSIDERED EMIGRATING BECAUSE THEY DID NOT FEEL SAFE IN
THEIR COUNTRIES. (SURVEY: 29% OF EUROPEAN JEWS CONSIDERED
EMIGRATING DUE TO ANTI-SEMITISM, JTA, and NOVEMBER 8, 2013, BASED
UPON THE SURVEY BY THE EUREOPEAN UNION AGENCY FOR
FUNDAMENTAL RIGHTS).
A SECOND REASON FOR THE RISE OF ANTI-SEMITISM IS THE ANTIPATHY OF
A MINORITY OF YOUNG, EUROPEAN MUSLIMS TOWARD ISRAEL AND JEWS
IN THEIR MIDST. THEY IMPORT THEIR ANGER AT ISRAEL INTO THEIR
ATTITUDE TOWARD JEWS. THIS IS SHOWN BY THE RECENT ATTACKS ON

THE CHARLIE HEBDON AND THE KOSHER MARKET IN PARIS IN 2015; THE
MURDER OF A FRENCH JEWISH YOUNG MAN; THE 2012 TERRORIST ATTACK
ON THE JEWISH DAY SCHOOL IN TOULOUSE, KILLING A RABBI AND THREE
SCHOOL CHILDREN, ONE OF 200 ANTI-SEMITIC ACTS OF VIOLENCE IN 2012;
THE ATTACKS IN MALMO, SWEDEN, CULMINATING IN THE BOMBING OF
THE JEWISH COMMUNITY CENTER IN 2012. THEY ARE CLUSTERED IN POOR
ENCLAVES AT THE OUTSKIRTS OF PARIS AND BRUSSELS.
UNLIKE THE SITUATION IN THE US, THE LARGE MUSLIM COMMUNITIES IN
FRANCE AND BELGIUM (AROUND 10% OF THE POPULATION), GERMANY
AND THE UK, HAVE NOT BEEN WELL ASSIMILATED, AND ARE THE VICTIMS
OF DISCRIMINATION. WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN LARGE NUMBERS OF
HOME-GROWN EUROPEAN MUSLIMS LEAVE FOR JIHAD IN SYRIA AND IRAQ,
AND COME BACK RADICALIZED, TRAINED, AND ARMED. IT IS ESTIMATED
THAT THERE MAY BE UPWARDS OF 3000. AND WHEN THEY RETURN TO
THEIR HOME COUNTRIES MANY ARE HIGHLY DANGEROUS. THIS IS THE
PRECISE PROFILE OF THE ATTACKER ON THE JEWISH MUSEUM OF
BRUSSELS. A FRENCH MUSLIM TRAVELED TO SYRIA TO FIGHT, AND ON HIS
RETURN TO FRANCE, THEN MADE HIS WAY THROUGH THE OPEN BORDER
TO BRUSSELS.
A THIRD REASON FOR RISING ANTI-SEMITISM IN EUROPE IS WIDE-SPREAD
SYMPATHY FOR THE PALESTINIANS AT THE EXPENSE OF ISRAEL. THEY ARE
SEEN BY MUCH OF THE EUROPEAN PUBLIC, AS THE INNOCENT VICTIMS
AT THE MERCY OF THE POWERFUL ISRAELI OCCUPIERS. WHEN ISRAEL WAS
THE WEAKER PARTY, AS IN THE SIX DAY WAR AND YOM KIPPUR WAR,
ISRAEL WAS THE DARLING OF THE EUROPEAN PUBLIC AND ACADEMIC
CLASS. NOW THE TABLES ARE TURNED. THE EXPANSION OF THE
SETTLEMENTS IN THE WEST BANK, THE DESTRUCTION OF PALESTINIAN
OLIVE TREES, THE OUTPOSTS, ILLEGAL EVEN UNDER ISRAELI LAW, FUELS
THIS SENTIMENT. OCCUPATIONS ARE NEVER TOTALLY BENIGN. TO THE
EXTENT THEY IDENTIFY WITH ISRAELIS AT ALL, THE ACADEMIC LEFT IN
EUROPE SEES INTELLECTUALS LIKE AMOS OZ, AS THEIR KINDRED SPIRIT.
BY CONTRAST, THE LATEST POLLS IN THE US (PEW, NBC) SHOW THAT BY
OVERWHELMING NUMBERS (E.G. 60% TO 16%) AMERICANS FAVOR ISRAEL
OVER THE PALESTINIANS, AND PUT THIS IN A POST-9/11 CONTEXT AS PART
OF THE SOLIDARITY WITH ISRAEL IN THE WAR AGAINST TERRORISM.
3. WHATS DIFFERENT TODAY FROM THE 1930S AND 1940S?
AS DIFFICULT AS THE SITUATION IS TODAY, IT IS A FAR CRY FROM THE
1930S AND 1940S. THE PREVLANCE OF ANTI-SEMITISM, WHILE VERY
TROUBLING, IS LESS TODAY, THAN IT WAS THEN.

BUT THE OTHER MAJOR DIFFERENCE IS THE ATTITUDE OF THE EUROPEAN

GOVERNMENTS AND INSTITUTIONS. THERE IS NO TOLERANCE IN THE
MAJOR COUNTRIES FOR ANY RISE OF ANTI-SEMITISM.
FRENCH PRIME MINISTER WALLS AND PRESIDENT HOLLANDE HAVE TAKEN
FIRM STEPS IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT ATTACKS, DEPLOYING
THOUSANDS OF POLICE TO PROTECT JEWISH INSTITUTIONS, AND
SPEAKING MOVINGLY OF THE IMPORTANCE OF JEWS TO THE FABRIC OF
FRENCH LIFE. FRENCH PRESIDENT SARKOHZY LED A SUCCESSFUL EFFORT
TO PASS A LAW THAT ATTACKS AGAINST JEWS ARE CRIMINAL HATE
CRIMES.
IN THE UK, WHEN HARRASSMENT OF JEWISH SCHOOL CHILDREN
INCREASED AT AN ALARMNG RATE, THEN PRIME MINISTER BLAIR
APPOINTED THE MCSHANE COMMISSION, WHICH DOCUMENTED THE
ATTACKS AND RECOMMENDED VERBAL AND PHYSICAL VIOLENCE
SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS HATE CRIMES.
IN THE YEAR 2000, SWEDISH PRIME MINISTER GORAN PERSSON, CREATED
THE HOLOCAUST EDUCATION TASK FORCE, NOW WITH OVER 30
COUNTRIES.
AND GERMANY FOR DECADES, AND NOW WITH THE SUDDEN INCREASE IN
THE PUBLISH OF MEIN KAMPH, HAS BEEN A MODEL LEADER IN
COMBATTING ANTI-SEMITISM AND IN ACCEPTING LARGE NUMBERS OF
JEWS AS CITIZENS.
************
II. IRAN NUCLEAR TALKS: AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT RIDES ON THE
OUTCOME OF THE NEGOTIATIONS, AND THE PROSPECT OF AN AGREEMENT
HAS BROUGHT ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER NETANYAHU TO WASHINGTON,
AIPAC AND CONGRESS THIS WEEK. IRAN IS A THREAT NOT ONLY TO
ISRAEL , BUT TO THE U.S, AND OUR ALLIES, WITH THEIR SUPPORT OF
TERRORIST GROUPS LIKE HEZBOLLAH AND HAMAS; THEIR EFFORT TO
SHORE-UP SYRIAN PRESIDENT ASSAD; AND TO DOMINATE POLTICS IN
IRAQ; AND TO DEVELOP LONG-RANGE MISSILES CAPABLE OF HITTING
ISRAEL AND PARTS OF EUROPE.
THE IRAN NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS HAVE BEEN CARRIED OUT BETWEEN
IRAN AND THE SO-CALLED P-5 PLUS ONE (THE PERMANENT MEMBERS OF
THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL, PLUS GERMANY). I HAVE BEEN VERY
CLOSELY FOLLOWING THOSE NEGOTIATIONS AS THE CHAIRMAN OF THE
IRAN TASK FORCE OF THE ATLANTIC COUNCIL FOR OVER 3 YEARS, THE
FIRST PART AS CO-CHAIR WITH SENATOR, THEN SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
CHUCK HAGEL. IN THAT CAPACITY I HAVE MET TWICE IN VERY SMALL
PERSONAL MEETINGS WITH IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER AND CHIEF

NUCLEAR NEGOTIATOR ZARIF (SEPTEMBER 2013 AND 2014), AND JUST A

FEW WEEKS AGO, WITH ONE OF HIS TOP OUTSIDE ADVISERS. WE HAVE
HELD DOZENS OF MEETINGS WITH EXPERTS IN EVERY AREA OF IRAN,
FROM ITS INTERNAL POLITICS TO ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM. I AM SPEAKING
TODAY PURELY IN MY PERSONAL CAPACITY, NOT ON BEHALF OF THE IRAN
TASK FORCE.
THE FIRST FRUITS OF THAT NEGOTIATION WAS AN INTERIM ACCORD IN
NOVEMBER, 2014, WHICH ESSENTIALLY FROZE IRANS PROGRAM IN PLACE,
WHILE OFFERERING MODEST SANCTONS RELIEF (AROUND $ 7 BILLION
ANNUALLY). THE PRIME MINISTER ORIGINALLY CONDEMNED IT, BUT NOW
SEEMS TO THINK IT IS POSITIVE.
UNQUESTIONALLY, IRAN CAME TO THE BARGAINING TABLE BECAUSE
PRESIDENT OBAMA ASSEMBLED A EUROPEAN-AMERICAN ALLIANCE TO
APPLY THE MOST SEVERE SANCTIONS EVER APPLIED AGAINST A NATION IN
PEACETIME (BARRING ALL THEIR PRIVATE BANKS FROM THE BRUSSELSBASED SWIFT SYSTEM, WHICH CLEARS ALL INERNATIONAL COMMERICAL
TRANSACTIONS; SANCTIONING IRANS CENTRAL BANK; ELIMINATING ALL
IRANIAN OIL EXPORTS TO EUROPE, SOME 16% OF THEIR TOTAL IMPORTS;
AND MUCH MORE). THE DROP IN OIL PRICES TO AROUND $50 A BARREL
HAS ALSO MADE THEM VULNERABLE, SINCE THEY NEED OVER $100 PER
BARREL TO BREAK-EVEN.
WHILE NO ONE CAN BE SURE OF ALL DETAILS, HERE IS AN OUTLINE OF A
DEAL THAT I BELIEVE WILL BE ANNOUNCED AS A FRAMEWORK
AGREEMENT BY MARCH 24 AND IN DETAILED FORM BY JULY 24. IT WILL
NOT MEET THE POSITION TAKEN BY THE PRIME MINSITER OF NO
ENRICHMENT, WHICH IS UNREALISTIC, GIVEN HOW FAR IRAN HAS GONE
DOWN THE NUCLEAR ROAD IN RECENT YEARS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO
REALIZE THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAD THE OPPORTUNITY
TO LIMIT IRAN TO SEVERAL HUNDRED RUDIMENTARY CENTFIGUES, BU
THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION WAS FOCUSED ON THE IRAQ WAR. AND THE
NUMBER HAS CONTINUED TO GROW EVEN MORE DRAMATICALLY IN THE
OBAMA ADMINISTRATION.
(1)THE GOAL OF THE AGREMENT IS TO BLOCK THE POSSIBLE PATHWAYS TO
A BOMB, WHICH PRESIDENT OBAMA AGREES WOULD BE CATASTROPHIC,
AND KEEP IRAN AT LEAST ONE YEAR AWAY FROM ACQUIRING SUFFICENT
MATERIAL TO MAKE A BOMB, SO THERE IS TIME TO REACT IF IRAN TRIES A
BREAKOUT. IT IS CRITICAL TO ASK WHETHER THERE IS A BETTER,
PRACTICAL WAY TO ACHIEVE MORE. THE PRIME MINISTERS POSITION OF
ELIMINATING ALL CENTRIFUGES AND ENRICHED URANIUM MAY HAVE
BEEN FEASIBLE YEARS AGO, BUT NOW WHEN THERE ARE 9000 OPERATING
CENTRIFUGES AND ANOTHER 10,000 WHICH CAN COME ON LINE SHORTLY;

AN UNDERGROUND FACILITY AT FORDOW; AND AN EMERGING PLUTONIUM

PLANT AT ARAK.
(2) FOLLOWING ARE LIKELY ELEMENTS OF AN AGREEMENT:
(A) THERE WOULD BE NO ENRICHMENT PERMITTED AT IRANS
UNDERGROUND NUCLEAR FACILITY AT FORDOW.
(B) THERE WOULD BE SEVERE LIMITS ON THE HEAVY-WATER
FACILITY AT ARAK, HOPEFULLY TO ELIMINATE ITS ABILITY TO PRODUCE
VERY SMALL AMOUNTS, IF ANY, PLUTONIUM, AND TO PRECLUDE IRAN
FROM BUILDING A FACILITY TO REPROCESS THAT PLUTONIUM.
(C) IRAN WILL MOTHBALL MOST OF ITS CENTRIGUES AT NATANZ,
AND WILL RETAIN AROUND 6000 IR-1 CENTRIGUES (THEY NOW HAVE 9000
OPERATING AND ANOTHER 10,000 READY TO OPERATE). THIS NUMBER
COULD BE 9000 BUT THE CENTRIGUES WOULD BE CONFIGURED TO
REDUCE THE EFFICIENCY OF THE MACHINES FROM .9 SEPARTIVE WORK
UNITS (SWOS) TO .6. HOPEFULLY, IRAN WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO
OPERATE THE IR-2 FASTER GENERATION CENTRIFUGES OR DO RESEARCH
ON EVEN MORE ADVANCED ONE.
(D) MOST OF IRANS STOCKPILE OF LOW ENRICHED URANIUM WILL
BE SENT OUT OF THE COUNTRY, PROBABLY TO RUSSIA, SO FOR THE
DURATION OF THE ACCORD, IT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH ENRICHED
URANIUM TO MAKE EVEN ONE BOMB.
(E) IRAN WOULD BE SUBJECT TO INSPECTION FROM THE RESPECTED
INTERNATIOAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY (IAEA), UNDER THE ADDITIONAL
PROTOCOL OF THE NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY, ALONG WITH OTHER
MEASURES TO INCREASE TRANSPARENCY AND REDUCE THE CHANCES OF
A COVERT PROGRAM.
(F) THE RESTRICTIONS WOULD LAST 10 TO 15 YEARS.
(G) THERE WOULD BE A PHASED-ELIMINATION OF THE MOST
RECENT SANCTIONS (NOT THOSE IMPOSED BY THE UNITED NATIONS OR
EARLIER US SANCTIONS TIED TO THE HOSTAGE TAKING).
(3) ADVANTAGES OF A DEAL (DONT LET THE PERFECT BE THE ENEMY OF
THE GOOD): IT CONSTRAINS ALL AVENUES TO MAKING A BOMB, WITH
INTRUSIVE IAEA INSPECTIONS OF IRANS CENTRIFUGES, URANIUM MINES,
MILLS AND MANUFACTURING FACILITIES. THIS IS THE BEST AND ONLY
WAY TO DISCOVER IF THEY ARE COVERTLY BUILDING A BOMB.
(A) THERE IS LITTLE SUPPORT FOR MILITARY ACTION IN THE US
(AND EVEN LESS IN EUROPE), EITHER AMONG THE PUBLIC, EXHAUSTED BY
TWO WARS IN MUSLIM COUNTRIES, THE MILITARY, OR OUR POLITICAL
LEADERS IN EITHER PARTY.
THE US COULD CARRY OUT A SUSTAINED MILITARY STRIKE (IT IS
MUCH MORE DIFFICULT FOR ISRAEL) WITH OUR MILTIARY ASSETS NEAR
IRAN, BUT IT WOULD ONLY SET BACK THEIR PROGRAM SEVERAL YEARS,
AND WOULD HAVE HUGE DOWNSIDES (E.G. HEZBOLLAH AND HAMAS

MISSILE ATTACKS ON ISRAEL; ATTACKS ON US ASSETS AND EMBASSIES IN

THE REGION).
(B) IT GIVES SOME REASONABLE CHANCE OF DETECTING ANY
CHEATING.
(C) IT CLEARLY WOULD REDUCE THE SIZE AND SCOPE OF IRANS
NUCLEAR PROGRAM. MOST OF THE ENRICHED URANIUM WOULD BE SENT
OUTSIDE IRAN FOR REPROCESSING IN WAYS THAT GREATLY RETARD
IRANS ABILITY TO MAKE A MILITARY WEAPON.
(D) IT MAINTAINS EU AND P5 +1 SOLIDARITY, WHICH MIGHT
CRUMBLE WTHOUT A DEAL, AND THE CAREFULLY CONSTRUCTED MULTILATERAL SANCTIONS MIGHT COLLAPSE.
(E) LIFTING OF SEPARATE UN SANCTIONS WOULD OCCUR ONLY WITH
SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE POSSIBLE MILITARY DIMENSIONS OF THEIR
NUCLEAR PROGRAM. AND THE RECENT US SANCTIONS WOULD ONLY BE
PHASED OUT GRADUALLY, AS IRAN IMPLEMENTS THE AGREEMENT.
(F) A TEN YEAR TIME FRAME GIVES SOME TIME AND SPACE FOR
IRANIAN SOCIETY TO EVOLVE AS THE OLDER REVOLUTIONARY
GENERATION PASSES AWAY.
(G) A DEAL DOES NOT GUARANTEE BY ANY MEANS A LESS HOSTILE
IRANIAN POLICY TOWARD THE US AND ISRAEL, IT COULD STRENGHTEN
THE MORE MODERATE FORCES, AND THE GENERAL PUBLIC, WHICH DOES
NOT/NOT HARBOR ANTI-US ATTITUDES LIKE THEIR LEADERSHIP. FAILURES
TO REACH A DEAL WOLD CERTAINLY STRENGTHEN THE MORE RADICAL
PARTS OF THE GOVERNMENT.
(H) WE MUST MAKE IT CLEAR THAT WITHOUT RESTRAINTS ON THEIR
MILTARY AND MISSILE PROGRAM, THERE CAN NEVER BE NORMAL
RELATIONS WITH THE US AND WEST, AND THAT UN AND OTHER US
SANCTIONS WOULD REMAIN IN PLACE.
(I) WE MUST BE CERTAIN THAT ANY CHEATING BY IRAN, WILL LEAD
TO A SNAP-BACK OF SANCTIONS. THUS THE PRESIDENT CAN WAIVE AND
RE-IMPOSE SANCTIONS WITH HIS PEN.
(4) DISADVANTAGES OF THE DEAL
(A) THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CERTAINTY THAT IRAN WILL OVER
TIME TEMPER ITS DEEP RESENTMENT AGAINST THE US AND ITS DESIRE TO
ELIMINATE ISRAEL. THIS IS A REVOLUTIONARY GOVERNMENT, AND HAS
BEEN FOR MORE THAN 35 YEARS. IRAN IS NOT JUST ANOTHER DIFFICULT
COUNTRY. IT IS AN STATE THAT HAS SUPPLIED MORE SOPHISTICATED
ROCKETS TO HAMAS TO HIT ISRAEL AND SPECIAL PROJECTILES TO
TERRORIST GROUPS IN IRAQ (IEDS) THAT HAVE KILLED AMERICAN
SOLDIERS.
(B) THE AGREEMENT DOES NOT/NOT COVER IRANS BALLISTIC
MISSILE PROGRAM, WHICH IS QUITE ADVANCED. IF IRAN WAS ONLY
INTERESTED IN A CIVLIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM, THEY WOULD HAVE NO
USE FOR SUCH LONG RANGE MISSILES, OR OTHER MILITARY ASPECTS

UNRELATED TO A CIVILIAN PROGRAM, LIKE WORK ON NUCLEAR

TRIGGERS AND CONTROLLED EXPLOSIONS.
(C) AT THE END OF THE 10-15 YEAR PERIOD, IRAN WOULD BE
UNCONSTRAINED TO PURSUE A NUCLEAR WEAPON.
(D) IRAN WILL HAVE LEAFT AN INDUSTRIAL SIZE CAPACITY, WHICH
IT IS ENTITLED TO HAVE UNDER THE NPT.
(E) SAUDI ARABIA, THE GULF STATES, EGYPT AND JORDAN, AS WELL
AS ISRAEL, WILL BE OPPOSED TO ALMOST ANY AGREEMENT. SOME MAY
INSIST ON STARTING THEIR OWN NUCLEAR PROGRAM, PARTICULARLY
SAUDI ARABIA, WHICH SEES ITSELF AS THE MAIN SUNNI STATE
COMPETING FOR INFLUENCE WITH IRAN IN THE REGION.
(5) HOW TO CAPTURE THE BEST PARTS OF THE DEAL AND OFFSET
THE DISADVANTAGES
(A) THE US SHOULD CONSIDER OFFERING SPECIAL NATO-TYPE
ARTICLE 5 ASSURANCES TO THESE STATES, INCLUDING ISRAEL, THAT ANY
ATTACK ON THEM IS AN ATTACK ON THE UNITED STATES.
(B) THE US SHOULD OPPOSE ANY DILUTION OF UN SANCTIONS, AND
SHOULD ONLY WAIVE SANCTIONS ON A YEARLY BASIS, DEPENDENT UPON
IRANIAN COMPLIANCE. SANCTIONS SHOULD ONLY GRADUALLY BE
REMOVED.
(C) THE US SHOULD WORK WITH THE EU TO APPLY MAXIMUM
PRESSURE ON IRAN TO RESTRAIN ITS MISSILE PROGRAM AND ITS SUPPORT
FOR TERRORISM.
(6) WHY NOT APPLY FURTHER SANCTIONS, IN THE HOPE THEY WILL LEAD
TO MORE IRANIAN CONCESSIONS?
(A) IRAN WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY NOT AGREE TO EVEN
CONTINUATION OF THE INTERIM, NOVEMBER 2014 FREEZE.
(B) THEY HAVE CONTINUED TO BUILD-UP THEIR AMOUNT OF
ENRICHED URANIUM AND THE NUMBER OF CENTRIGUES, INDEED WITH
MORE SOPHISTICATED REACTORS, EVEN DURING THE CURRENT SEVERE
SANCTONS REGIME.
(C) THE EXISTING SANCTIONS HAVE BEEN EFFECTIVE BECAUE OF EU
COOPERATION. THIS WOULD BE THREATENED WITH HARSHER US
SANCTIONS.
III.STATE OF U.S.-ISRAEL RELATIONS
(1)IT IS IMPORTANT TO PUT THE CURRENT TENSIONS IN A POSITIVE
CONTEXT.
(A)THERE IS STRONG SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL IN THE AMERICAN PUBLIC, AS
FELLOW DEMOCRACY IN A SEA OF AUTOCRACY AND ANARCHY; AS A
BULWARK AGAINST ISLAMIC RADICALISM; AS THE HOLY LAND.

(B) THE US MIILTARY HAS A STRONG AND ENDURING RELATIONSHIP WITH

ISRAEL. WE HAVE PRE-POSITIONED A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF US
MILTARY HARDWARE IN ISRAEL; WE SHARE INTELLIGENCE AND GAIN A
GREAT DEAL FROM ISRAEL.
(C) THE US-ISRAEL RELATIONSHIP IS A CENTERPIECE OF AMERICAN
FOREIGN POLICY, WITH STRONG BIPARTISAN SUPPORT.
(2) BUT WE MUST ALSO BE REALISTIC TO RECOGNIZE THERE ARE
SUBSTANTIAL TENSIONS, QUITE APART FROM IRAN.
(A) THE US IS A SUPERPOWER, WITH BROAD INTERESTS IN THE REGION,
AND IN STRENGHTENING RELATIONS WITH THE ARAB COUNTRIES.
(B) ISRAELS AGGRESSIVE SETTLEMENT POLICY HAS STRAINED RELATIONS
WITH PRESIDENTS FROM FORD TO OBAMA. FORD CUT OFF AID. REAGAN
THREE TIMES THREATENED REASSESSMENTS OVER ISRAELI POLICY (E.G.
INVASION OF LEBANON)
(C) POLLS HAVE SHOWN AN EROSION OF SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL AMONG
DEMOCRATS, LARGELY TIED TO CONCERNS ABOUT THE OCCUPATION.
(3) WHAT HAS HAPPENED WITH THE WAY IN WHICH THE PRIME MINISTERS
SPEECH WAS ARRANGED, HAS TAKEN THE POLITICAL SIDE OF THE
RELATIONSHIP TO A NEW LOW.
(A) IMAGINE IF THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES HAD ASKED THE
LEADER OF THE KNESSET, WITHOUT INFORMING THE PRIME MINISTER, TO
SPEAK, AND THEN USED THE FORUM TO BLAST THE PRIME MINISTERS
POLICIES. THAT IS EFFECTIVELY WHAT HAS HAPPENED.
(B) THIS HAS DIVIDED NORMAL SUPPORTERS IN CONGRESS IN A PARTISAN
WAY, MAKING ISRAEL A PARTISAN ISSUE IN CONGRESS FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN MEMORY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT SOME 70% OF
AMERICAN JEWS ARE DEMOCRATS.
(C) IT HAS DIVIDED JEWISH GROUPS AND JEWISH SUPPORTERS (E.G. DOV
ZAKHEIM)
(D) IT HAS DIVERTED ATTENTION FROM IRAN TO THE US-ISRAEL
RELATIONHIP. AND BECAUSE IT COMES ONLY 2 WEEKS BEFORE A HOTLY
CONTESTED NATIONAL ELECTION, IT NATURALLY RAISES SUSPICIONS
THAT THE REAL MOTIVE IS USING THE PLATFORM OF THE JOINT SESSION
OF CONGRESS TO FURTHER THE PRIME MINISERS DOMESTIC POLITICAL
AMBITIONS, EVEN IF THIS IS THE FURTHEST THING FROM HIS MIND. HE
COULD HAVE DELIVERED THE SAME MESSAGE TWO WEEKS AFTER THE
ELECTION. AND THE SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE HAS USED ISRAEL TO
WEAKEN THE PRESIDENT BOTH DISLIKE.
(E) IT HAS DIVIDED KEY ISRAELIS. HIS OWN ISREALI AMBASSADOR TO THE
US MICHAEL OREN RECOMMENDED CANCELING THE SPEECH, AND HAS
SAID THAT THE RELATIONSHIP IS NOW IN UNCHARTERED WATERS, AND

200 FORMER GENERALS AND IDF LEADERS, MOSAD AND SHIN BET
LEADERS, ON SUNDAY AT A JOINT NEWS CONFERENCE URGED THE PRIME
MINSIER TO AVOID FURTHER DETERIORATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP.
(F) I CANNOT REMEMBER ANOTHER TIME WHEN AN ISRAELI PRIME
MINISTER CAME TO WASHINGTON AND DID NOT SEE ANY RANKING
OFFICIAL.
(G) WHATEVER ONE THINKS OF PRESIDENT OBAMAS POLICIES TOWARD
ISRAEL, IT IS A SERIOUS MISTAKE. AS THE PRIME MINISTER HAS DONE, TO
EFFECTIVELY WRITE HIS ADMINISTRATION OFF FOR THE BALANCE OF
THEIR TERM IN OFFICE.
(H) IT COULD WEAKEN THE RESOLVE OF THE ADMINISTRATION TO
PROTECT ISRAEL AGAINS THE BDS CAMPAIGN AND IN UN FORUMS AT A
TIME THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY IS UNFORTUNATELY USING THE UN
FOR A SERIES OF UNILATERAL MEASURES, INCLUDING THE ICC.
(4) THE MAJOR DIFFERENCE ON IRAN IS THAT THE OBAMA
ADMINISTRATION IS PLEDGED, AND I BELIEVE FIRMLY WILL ACT, TO
PROVENT IRAN FROM BECOMING A NUCLEAR WEAPONS STATE, WHILE THE
PRIME MINISTER WANTS TO DENY THEIR BECOMING A NUCLEAR
CAPABLE STATE.
THIS TOO SHALL PASS, AND THE UNDERLYING STRENGTH OF THE
RELATIONSHIP WILL REASSERT ITSELF. BUT IT IS UNCLEAR HOW LONG
THIS WILL TAKE WITH THE BITTERNESS THAT HAS BEEN ENGENDRED ON
BOTH SIDES.