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13 AUG 2016
Sanghvi Movers
BUY
INDUSTRY
INFRASTRUCTURE
Rs 262
Target Price
Rs 422
Nifty
8,672
Sensex
28,152
SGM IN
43
11/169
16
Rs 408/254
3M
6M
12M
Absolute (%)
(9.7)
(12.1)
(30.6)
Relative (%)
(18.8)
(34.6)
(32.9)
46.88
23.13
FIIs
Public & Others
1.85
28.14
Source : BSE
Prabhat Anantharaman
prabhat.anantharaman@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-6171-7319
Maintaining Faith
Sanghvi Movers (SGM) 1QFY17 revenues/EBITDA
were ~8.2/11.5% below estimates on account of a
seasonal fall in crane utilisation to ~79% (~84% in
4QFY16) and yield to ~2.8% (~3.15% in 4QFY16).
While management has guided for a weak 2QFY17, it
expects 2HFY17 to be better as they have already
received order enquiries for their 600+ MT cranes.
Even so, with the medium term outlook for wind
capex in India looking capped, we expect tepid
revenue CAGR of ~9.5% over FY16-18E, with ~108
bps contraction in FY17E EBITDA margins. We retain
our faith on SGMs strong cash flows with FY18-end
FCF yield of ~16.5%.
Focus on optimum utilisation, strong receivables
management and management acumen position
SGM to withstand cyclical slowdowns. We rate SGM
as a BUY with a revised TP of Rs 422/sh (based on
12x FY18E EPS).
1QFY17
1,378
878
252
5.83
1QFY16
1,079
670
178
4.10
YoY (%)
27.7%
30.9%
42.1%
42.1%
4QFY16
1,635
1,081
433
10.00
QoQ (%)
-15.7%
-18.8%
-41.7%
-41.7%
FY15
3,060
1,785
23
0.54
488.4
8.1
1.2
FY16
5,296
3,544
1,100
25.41
10.3
4.9
16.7
FY17E
5,827
3,814
1,231
28.44
9.2
4.3
15.3
FY18E
6,352
4,181
1,521
35.14
7.5
3.5
16.4
HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters
1QFY17
1,378
56
146
306
871
7
878
358
520
18
158
380
128
252
252
1QFY16
1,079
54
80
280
666
4
670
281
390
3
109
284
107
178
178
YoY (%)
27.7%
4.0%
82.0%
9.4%
30.7%
66.0%
30.9%
27.6%
33.4%
425.6%
45.0%
33.7%
19.6%
42.1%
NM
42.1%
4QFY16
1,635
53
171
332
1,079
2
1,081
363
718
55
163
611
232
379
54
433
QoQ (%)
-15.7%
6.2%
-15.1%
-7.8%
-19.3%
244.7%
-18.8%
-1.5%
-27.6%
-67.2%
-2.9%
-37.7%
-44.8%
-33.4%
NM
-41.7%
YoY (bps)
(91.98)
315.48
(370.34)
159.12
(396.25)
186.55
4QFY16
3.21
10.48
20.29
66.14
37.94
23.18
QoQ (bps)
83.69
8.02
191.37
(242.93)
(433.29)
(485.93)
1QFY17
4.05
10.56
22.21
63.71
33.61
18.32
1QFY16
4.97
7.41
25.91
62.12
37.57
16.45
Page | 2
Infra
7%
Power
15%
Refineries
11%
Cement
1%
Windmill
64%
Metals
2%
Page | 3
60.0%
75.0%
4,000
50.0%
70.0%
3,000
40.0%
65.0%
10.0%
4,000
55.0%
50.0%
FY18E
FY17E
FY16
FY15
FY14
FY13
FY12
FY11
0.0%
FY10
2.0%
1.5%
FY18E
1,000
60.0%
FY17E
20.0%
2.5%
FY16
30.0%
3.0%
FY15
5,000
80.0%
FY14
70.0%
85.0%
FY13
80.0%
6,000
3.5%
FY12
90.0%
FY11
Rs mn
Average Yield
90.0%
2,000
Utilisation
FY10
7,000
EBITDA
NWC Cycle
Rs mn
300
1.4
7,000
3,500
1.2
250
3,000
200
2,500
2,000
150
1,500
6,000
1.0
5,000
0.8
100
4,000
50
3,000
0.6
0.4
1,000
0.2
FY18E
FY17E
FY16
FY15
FY14
FY13
0.0
FY12
2,000
FY11
FY18E
FY17E
FY16
FY15
FY14
FY13
0
FY12
FY10
500
FY11
Page | 4
Change in Estimates
With overall India wind
capex looking capped at
4,000-4,500MW over FY1718E, we expect SGMs
corresponding crane
utilisation rates to remain
pressured at ~78/79% and
gross block yields at
~2.85/2.9%
Particulars
Revenues (Rs mn)
EBITDA (Rs mn)
EBITDA (%)
APAT (Rs mn)
EPS (Rs)
FY17E
New
5,827
3,814
65.5
1,231
28.4
FY18E
Old
6,001
3,966
66.1
1,294
29.9
% Change
(2.9)
(3.8)
(63.1)
(4.8)
(4.8)
New
6,352
4,181
65.8
1,521
35.1
Old
6,635
4,413
66.5
1,647
38.0
% Change
(4.3)
(5.2)
(67.6)
(7.6)
(7.6)
We value SGM at Rs
422/share (12x FY18E EPS)
Valuation
Particulars
Sanghvi Movers
Total
Segments
Crane Rental
Page | 5
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
66.0
80.5
78.0
2.40
2.92
2.85
3,060
5,296
5,827
Employee Expenses
-164
-229
-263
-286
-229
-452
-496
Other Expenses
FY18E Comments
With the medium term outlook for wind capex in India looking capped, we
79.0
expect utilisation rates to decrease from at current levels.
We also expect yields to yields to decrease in line with the utilisation of
2.90
cranes.
6,352 We estimate tepid CAGR of ~9.5% over FY16-18E
-1090
-1265
-1355
1,785
58.3
-1,200
3,544
66.9
-1,263
3,814
65.5
-1,544
4,181
65.8
-1,631
-427
-542
-489
-378
232
1,818
1,811
2,204
65
36
32
31
PAT
81
1,169
1,231
1,521
Net D/E
0.47
0.81
0.58
0.31
Debtor days
147
107
105
100
2082
2340
3272
3392
EBIDTA
EBIDTA margin (%)
Depreciation
Interest Expense
PBT
Other expenses have been derived by modeling key subheads. Contract labour
is assumed to be ~6.25% of revenues in line with historical trends. Power &
Fuel costs are likely to contract by ~25 bps over FY15-18E to ~4.75%.
Consumption of stores & spares is assumed to be ~4% over FY15-18E.
FY16-18E EBIDTA CAGR of ~8.6%.
Expect ~108bps contraction in EBITDA margins over FY16-18E
Depreciation rate assumed at ~6.75% pa over FY15-18E
Borrowing costs is assumed at 8.75% over FY16-18E, on account of falling
interest rates and improvement in SML's credit rating.
FY16-18E PBT CAGR of ~10.11%
We have prudently assumed 31% tax for FY18E in line with union budget
direction on reducing corporate taxes by 5% over 4yrs.
FY16-18E PAT CAGR of ~14.06%
We expect SGM to retire Rs 1.0/1.6bn worth of debt over FY17-18E as there
are no major capex needs
To remain at current levels as SML has realized all o/s debtors and current
book is healthy.
Stringent working capital management to result in higher positive cash flow
from operations
SGM intends to spend about ~Rs 1.59bn in FY17E in adding cranes in the +650
MT categories. They will primarily cater to the higher requirements in the
wind sector.
FY18E FCF yield of 16.5%
We expect SGM to use the cash to largely repay its debt
Net cash position is very comfortable
Page | 6
Income Statement
Year ending March (Rs mn)
FY14
Net Revenues
2,417
Growth (%)
(27.2)
Employee Expenses
136
Freight & Carriage Expenses
167
Other Operating Expenses
776
Operating Profits
1,338
Operating Profit Margin (%)
55.4
Other Operating Income
27
EBIDTA
1,365
EBIDTA (%)
56.5
EBIDTA Growth (%)
(41.1)
Depreciation
1,186
EBIT
179
Other Income (Incl EO Items)
54
Interest
462
PBT
(230)
Tax
(85)
RPAT
(145)
EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax)
(31)
APAT
(176)
APAT Growth (%)
(152.1)
EPS
(4.1)
EPS Growth (%)
(152.1)
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Balance Sheet
FY15
3,060
26.6
164
229
904
1,763
57.6
22
1,785
58.3
30.8
1,200
585
74
427
232
151
81
(57)
23
(113.2)
0.5
(113.2)
FY16
5,296
73.1
229
452
1,090
3,524
66.5
19
3,544
66.9
98.5
1,263
2,280
80
542
1,818
649
1,169
(69)
1,100
4,620.0
25.4
4,620.0
FY17E
5,827
10.0
263
496
1,265
3,803
65.3
12
3,814
65.5
7.6
1,544
2,271
29
489
1,811
579
1,231
1,231
11.9
28.4
11.9
FY18E
6,352
9.0
286
541
1,355
4,169
65.6
13
4,181
65.8
9.6
1,631
2,550
32
378
2,204
683
1,521
1,521
23.5
35.1
23.5
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
87
6,403
6,489
2,629
2,019
4,649
855
87
6,457
6,544
2,711
629
3,340
862
87
7,412
7,498
4,692
1,398
6,090
929
87
8,491
8,577
3,692
1,398
5,090
929
87
9,860
9,946
2,142
1,398
3,540
929
49
49
49
11,993
10,746
14,567
14,646
14,464
10,048
3
0
257
10,307
102
1,488
186
83
1,859
109
64
173
1,686
11,993
8,913
175
70
143
9,300
102
1,235
281
85
1,703
109
149
258
1,445
10,746
12,556
60
292
12,908
106
1,551
41
341
2,038
202
177
380
1,659
14,567
12,602
60
160
12,822
192
1,680
111
160
2,142
222
96
318
1,824
14,646
11,971
60
174
12,205
209
1,744
455
174
2,582
239
83
323
2,260
14,464
Page | 7
Cash Flow
Year ending March (Rs mn)
FY14
Reported PBT
(230)
Non-operating & EO items
(22)
PAT from Operations
(252)
Interest expenses
462
Depreciation
1,186
Working Capital Change
779
Tax Paid
(98)
OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a )
2,076
Capex
(86)
Free cash flow (FCF)
1,990
Investments
(92)
INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b )
(178)
Debt Issuance
(1,502)
Interest expenses
(489)
Free cash flow to Equity (FCFE)
0
Dividend
(50)
FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c )
(2,041)
NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c)
(142)
Closing Cash & Equivalents
45
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Key Ratios
FY15
232
(25)
207
427
1,200
240
8
2,082
(495)
1,587
152
(343)
(1,069)
(437)
82
(1,506)
233
278
FY16
1,818
(80)
1,739
542
1,263
(555)
(649)
2,340
(4,906)
(2,567)
10
(4,896)
2,750
(462)
(279)
(152)
2,136
(420)
41
FY17E
1,811
(29)
1,781
489
1,544
37
(579)
3,272
(1,590)
1,682
(1,590)
(1,000)
(460)
222
(152)
(1,612)
70
111
FY18E
2,204
(32)
2,173
378
1,631
(106)
(683)
3,392
(1,000)
2,392
(1,000)
(1,550)
(346)
496
(152)
(2,048)
344
455
PROFITABILITY (%)
EBITDA Margin
EBIT Margin
APAT Margin
RoE
Core RoCE
RoCE
EFFICIENCY
Tax Rate (%)
Asset Turnover (x)
Inventory (days)
Debtors (days)
Other Current Assets (days)
Payables (days)
Other Current Liab & Provns (days)
Cash Conversion Cycle (days)
Debt/EBITDA (x)
Net D/E
Interest Coverage
PER SHARE DATA
EPS (Rs/sh)
CEPS (Rs/sh)
DPS (Rs/sh)
BV (Rs/sh)
VALUATION
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Revenues
OCF/EV (%)
FCF/EV (%)
FCFE/Market Cap (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
56.5
7.4
(6.0)
(2.2)
1.0
1.2
58.3
19.1
2.6
1.2
2.0
2.0
66.9
43.1
22.1
16.7
10.3
12.0
65.5
39.0
21.1
15.3
10.8
10.7
65.8
40.2
23.9
16.4
12.8
12.2
36.8
0.2
15.4
224.8
51.3
16.5
9.7
265.3
3.4
0.69
(0.4)
65.3
0.3
12.2
147.3
27.1
13.0
17.8
155.9
1.9
0.47
(1.4)
35.7
0.4
7.3
106.9
43.7
13.9
15.6
128.3
1.7
0.81
(4.2)
32.0
0.5
12.0
105.2
20.0
13.9
9.1
114.3
1.3
0.58
(4.6)
31.0
0.5
12.0
100.2
20.0
13.7
7.6
110.9
0.8
0.31
(6.8)
(4.1)
24.0
149.9
0.5
29.6
0.5
151.2
25.4
56.2
3.0
173.2
28.4
64.1
3.0
198.1
35.1
72.8
3.0
229.8
(64.5)
1.8
11.6
6.6
13.1
12.6
0.0
-
488.4
1.7
8.1
4.7
14.4
11.0
0.7
0.2
10.3
1.5
4.9
3.3
13.4
(14.7)
(2.4)
1.1
9.2
1.3
4.3
2.8
20.0
10.3
2.0
1.1
7.5
1.1
3.5
2.3
23.4
16.5
4.4
1.1
Page | 8
RECOMMENDATION HISTORY
400
Date
10-Nov-15
9-Feb-16
27-May-16
CMP
337
327
285
Reco
BUY
BUY
BUY
Target
434
444
456
350
13-Aug-16
262
BUY
422
Sanghvi Movers
TP
500
450
300
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr-16
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
BUY
Oct-15
200
Sep-15
Rating Definitions
Aug-15
250
: Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period
NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period
SELL
: Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period
Page | 9
HDFC securities
Institutional Equities
Unit No. 1602, 16th Floor, Tower A, Peninsula Business Park,
Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel,Mumbai - 400 013
Board : +91-22-6171 7330www.hdfcsec.com
Page | 10