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RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY17

13 AUG 2016

Sanghvi Movers
BUY
INDUSTRY

INFRASTRUCTURE

CMP (as on 12 Aug 2016)

Rs 262

Target Price

Rs 422

Nifty

8,672

Sensex

28,152

KEY STOCK DATA


Bloomberg

SGM IN

No. of Shares (mn)

43

MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn)

11/169

6m avg traded value (Rs mn)

16

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)


52 Week high / low

Rs 408/254
3M

6M

12M

Absolute (%)

(9.7)

(12.1)

(30.6)

Relative (%)

(18.8)

(34.6)

(32.9)

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)


Promoters

46.88

DIIs & Local MFs

23.13

FIIs
Public & Others

1.85
28.14

Source : BSE

Prabhat Anantharaman
prabhat.anantharaman@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-6171-7319

Maintaining Faith
Sanghvi Movers (SGM) 1QFY17 revenues/EBITDA
were ~8.2/11.5% below estimates on account of a
seasonal fall in crane utilisation to ~79% (~84% in
4QFY16) and yield to ~2.8% (~3.15% in 4QFY16).
While management has guided for a weak 2QFY17, it
expects 2HFY17 to be better as they have already
received order enquiries for their 600+ MT cranes.
Even so, with the medium term outlook for wind
capex in India looking capped, we expect tepid
revenue CAGR of ~9.5% over FY16-18E, with ~108
bps contraction in FY17E EBITDA margins. We retain
our faith on SGMs strong cash flows with FY18-end
FCF yield of ~16.5%.
Focus on optimum utilisation, strong receivables
management and management acumen position
SGM to withstand cyclical slowdowns. We rate SGM
as a BUY with a revised TP of Rs 422/sh (based on
12x FY18E EPS).

Highlights of the quarter

Update on capex plans: SGM plans to incur a net


capex ~Rs 1.59bn in FY17E by trading part of its
400 MT fleet for 650+ MT cranes, which will cater
to 3-5MW windmills (140+ metres tall).

Optimum cash utilisation: We expect SGM to


report FCF of Rs 1.7/2.4bn in FY17/18E. With no
major capex plans, cash can be used to either
retire debt or reward shareholders in the form of
higher dividends or share buybacks. While we
await clarity, we expect SGM to repay Rs
1.0/1.6bn of debt in FY17/18E.

Near-term outlook: With the medium-term


outlook on wind capex looking capped, we expect
SGMs utilisations and yields to remain under
pressure. We expect stock performance to remain
subdued in the near term, advise BUY on dips.

Financial Summary (Standalone)


(Rs mn)
Net Sales
EBITDA
APAT
Diluted EPS (Rs)
P/E (x)
EV / EBITDA (x)
RoE (%)

1QFY17
1,378
878
252
5.83

1QFY16
1,079
670
178
4.10

YoY (%)
27.7%
30.9%
42.1%
42.1%

4QFY16
1,635
1,081
433
10.00

QoQ (%)
-15.7%
-18.8%
-41.7%
-41.7%

FY15
3,060
1,785
23
0.54
488.4
8.1
1.2

FY16
5,296
3,544
1,100
25.41
10.3
4.9
16.7

FY17E
5,827
3,814
1,231
28.44
9.2
4.3
15.3

FY18E
6,352
4,181
1,521
35.14
7.5
3.5
16.4

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters

SANGHVI MOVERS: RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY17

SGMs 4QFY16 net


revenues/EBIDTA was ~8.2%
and ~11.5% below our
estimates

EBIDTA margins contracted


~243bps QoQ owing to
~191bps increase in other
operating expenses

Other income of Rs 18mn


included Rs 15.6mn profit
from sale of trade
investments

As on 30-June-16, the gross


debt stood at Rs 5.9bn, with
gross D/E ratio at 0.75x

Quarterly Financial (Standalone)


Particulars (Rs mn)
Net Revenues
Employee Expenses
Freight & Charges
Other Operating Expenses
Operating Profits
Other Operating Income
EBITDA
Depreciation
EBIT
Other Income (Incl EO Items)
Interest Cost
PBT
Tax
RPAT
E/o (Adj For Tax)
APAT

1QFY17
1,378
56
146
306
871
7
878
358
520
18
158
380
128
252
252

1QFY16
1,079
54
80
280
666
4
670
281
390
3
109
284
107
178
178

YoY (%)
27.7%
4.0%
82.0%
9.4%
30.7%
66.0%
30.9%
27.6%
33.4%
425.6%
45.0%
33.7%
19.6%
42.1%
NM
42.1%

4QFY16
1,635
53
171
332
1,079
2
1,081
363
718
55
163
611
232
379
54
433

QoQ (%)
-15.7%
6.2%
-15.1%
-7.8%
-19.3%
244.7%
-18.8%
-1.5%
-27.6%
-67.2%
-2.9%
-37.7%
-44.8%
-33.4%
NM
-41.7%

YoY (bps)
(91.98)
315.48
(370.34)
159.12
(396.25)
186.55

4QFY16
3.21
10.48
20.29
66.14
37.94
23.18

QoQ (bps)
83.69
8.02
191.37
(242.93)
(433.29)
(485.93)

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Margin Analysis (Standalone)


Employee Expenses % Net Sales
Freight & Charges % Net Sales
Other Operating Expenses % Net Sales
EBITDA Margin (%)
Tax Rate (%)
APAT Margin (%)

1QFY17
4.05
10.56
22.21
63.71
33.61
18.32

1QFY16
4.97
7.41
25.91
62.12
37.57
16.45

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Page | 2

SANGHVI MOVERS: RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY17

Highlights of the concall

While 1HFY17 could be a disappointment, the

The current debt obligation for FY17 is Rs 1.15bn,

management continues to see good traction in


the wind power space and expects 4,0004,500MW of wind asset creation over FY17-18E.

of which SGM has already paid Rs 600mn, with


Rs 550mn remaining to be paid during the year.

According to the management, the wind sector is


facing shortage of cranes in the +600MT ranges,
which could result into SGMs cranes witnessing
decent order bookings in 2HFY17.

SGM plans to buy 5 cranes of 650MT capacity

The management is optimistic about the thermal


power space and expects orders in the power
space in the next 6-9 months, mostly from
revived projects and UMPPs.

On a conservative basis, the management


expects 10% growth in net revenues for FY17E
with EBITDA margins in 65-66% range.

from Terex for a total outlay of Rs 2.1bn in


FY17E. As part of the deal, SGM would be trading
part of its 400MT fleet for Rs 530mn, thus
incurring a net capex of Rs 1.6bn.

It has trimmed its guidance for utilisation rates to

The idea is to upgrade its fleet and build


capacities to cater to the 3-5MW windmills over
140 metres in height. The management has
already received bookings for most of its new
cranes and expects to deploy them by Dec 2016.

1QFY17 Revenue Distribution

In 1QFY17, SGM added 8 cranes to its fleet,


which was a spillover from FY16 capex. As on 30June-16, the fleet size stood at 490 cranes and
associated gross block was Rs 20.4bn. 90% of its
fleet is in the +100MT category and 32 cranes are
in the +600MT category.
SGM also plans to buy/rent an office space in
BKC (Mumbai) and has set aside Rs 170mn for
the same.

remain 79-80% range and average yields on gross


block to 2.80-3.00% over the medium term.

Infra
7%
Power
15%

Refineries
11%
Cement
1%

Windmill
64%

Metals
2%

The debtor days has improved slightly to ~98


days in 1QFY17-end from ~100 in FY16. The
management expects the metric to remain
within the range of 90-100 days

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Page | 3

SANGHVI MOVERS: RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY17


Revenues, EBITDA And EBITDA Margins (%)
Sales

60.0%

75.0%

4,000

50.0%

70.0%

3,000

40.0%

65.0%

10.0%

Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

4,000

55.0%
50.0%

FY18E

FY17E

FY16

FY15

FY14

FY13

FY12

FY11

0.0%

FY10

2.0%

1.5%

FY18E

1,000

60.0%

FY17E

20.0%

2.5%

FY16

30.0%

3.0%

FY15

5,000

80.0%

FY14

70.0%

85.0%

FY13

80.0%

6,000

3.5%

FY12

90.0%

FY11

Rs mn

Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Cash Flow From Operations And NWC Cycle

NWC to improve from ~265


days in FY14 to ~111 days in
FY18E, which should aid in
healthy cash flow from
operations of Rs 3.4bn in
FY18E

Average Yield

90.0%

2,000

Utilisation rates and


average yields on gross
block to remain under
pressure at 78/79% and
2.85/2.9% in FY17E/18E

Utilisation

EBITDA Margin (%)

FY10

Expect tepid revenue CAGR


of ~9.5% with ~108bps
contraction in EBITDA
margins over FY16-18E

7,000

EBITDA

Utilisations And Average Yields (%)

Cash flow from Operations - LHS


Rs mn

1.Net Debt And Net D/E Ratio


Net Debt

NWC Cycle

Net D/E Ratio

Rs mn

300

1.4

7,000

3,500

1.2

250

3,000

200

2,500
2,000

150

1,500

6,000

1.0

5,000

0.8

100

4,000

50

3,000

0.6
0.4

1,000

Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

0.2

FY18E

FY17E

FY16

FY15

FY14

FY13

0.0

FY12

2,000

FY11

FY18E

FY17E

FY16

FY15

FY14

FY13

0
FY12

FY10

500
FY11

In the absence of any major


capex plans, we expect SGM
to utilise the cash to retire
its debt by Rs 1.0/1.6bn over
FY17/18E

Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Page | 4

SANGHVI MOVERS: RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY17

Change in Estimates
With overall India wind
capex looking capped at
4,000-4,500MW over FY1718E, we expect SGMs
corresponding crane
utilisation rates to remain
pressured at ~78/79% and
gross block yields at
~2.85/2.9%

Particulars
Revenues (Rs mn)
EBITDA (Rs mn)
EBITDA (%)
APAT (Rs mn)
EPS (Rs)

FY17E
New
5,827
3,814
65.5
1,231
28.4

FY18E

Old
6,001
3,966
66.1
1,294
29.9

% Change
(2.9)
(3.8)
(63.1)
(4.8)
(4.8)

New
6,352
4,181
65.8
1,521
35.1

Old
6,635
4,413
66.5
1,647
38.0

% Change
(4.3)
(5.2)
(67.6)
(7.6)
(7.6)

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Outlook and valuation


Target price of Rs 422 implies ~60% upside

FY17E/18E revenue estimates


have been cut by 2.9/4.3%, in
line with the managements
conservative stance on
growth outlook

FY17/18E EBITDA estimates


have been cut 3.8/5.2% while
expecting ~63/68bps
contraction in margins over
our previous estimates

We value SGM at Rs
422/share (12x FY18E EPS)

Valuation methodology: We have valued SGM at


12x FY18E EPS of Rs 35.1/sh. This is justified by (1)
A capped capex cycle, mostly in the wind power
space, which would drive SGMs tepid revenue
CAGR of ~9.5% over FY16-18E, (2) Utilisation rates
and average yields (on gross block) to remain at
78/79% and 2.85/2.9% over FY17/18E, (4)
Improving NWC cycle (from ~265 days in FY14 to
~111 in FY18E), (5) Strong FCF generation of Rs

1.7/2.4bn over FY17/18, which will largely be


utilised towards debt repayment of Rs 1.0/1.6bn,
respectively, and (6) FCF yield of ~16.5% in FY18E.

With increasing focus on optimum utilsation,


strong working capital management and ace
promoter acumen, SGM is well positioned to
withstand any cyclical slowdown in the crane hiring
business. We rate SGM as a BUY with a revised TP
of Rs 422/sh (at 12x FY18E EPS).

Valuation
Particulars
Sanghvi Movers
Total

Segments
Crane Rental

Value (Rs mn) Value per share(Rs) Rationale


18,253
422 At 12x FY18E EPS
18,253
422

Source : HDFC sec Inst Research

Page | 5

SANGHVI MOVERS: RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY17

Key model assumptions and estimates


(Rs mn)

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

Utilisation Rates (%)

66.0

80.5

78.0

2.40

2.92

2.85

3,060

5,296

5,827

Employee Expenses

-164

-229

-263

-286

Freight & Carriage


Expenses

-229

-452

-496

-541 Freight & Carriage expenses are assumed at ~8-8.5% of revenues

Yield (on avg gross block)


(%)
Revenues (Incl. other
operating income)

Other Expenses

FY18E Comments
With the medium term outlook for wind capex in India looking capped, we
79.0
expect utilisation rates to decrease from at current levels.
We also expect yields to yields to decrease in line with the utilisation of
2.90
cranes.
6,352 We estimate tepid CAGR of ~9.5% over FY16-18E

-1090

-1265

-1355

1,785
58.3
-1,200

3,544
66.9
-1,263

3,814
65.5
-1,544

4,181
65.8
-1,631

-427

-542

-489

-378

232

1,818

1,811

2,204

Tax rate (%)

65

36

32

31

PAT

81

1,169

1,231

1,521

Net D/E

0.47

0.81

0.58

0.31

Debtor days

147

107

105

100

Operating Cash Flows

2082

2340

3272

3392

Investing Cash Flows

(343) (4,896) (1,590) (1,000)

EBIDTA
EBIDTA margin (%)
Depreciation
Interest Expense
PBT

Free Cash Flows (FCF)


1,587 (2,567) 1,682 2,392
Financing Cash Flows
(1,506) 2,136 (1,612) (2,048)
Net Cash Inflow/Outflow
233
(420)
70
344
Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Employee expenses are assumed at ~4.5% of revenues in line with historical


trends

Other expenses have been derived by modeling key subheads. Contract labour
is assumed to be ~6.25% of revenues in line with historical trends. Power &
Fuel costs are likely to contract by ~25 bps over FY15-18E to ~4.75%.
Consumption of stores & spares is assumed to be ~4% over FY15-18E.
FY16-18E EBIDTA CAGR of ~8.6%.
Expect ~108bps contraction in EBITDA margins over FY16-18E
Depreciation rate assumed at ~6.75% pa over FY15-18E
Borrowing costs is assumed at 8.75% over FY16-18E, on account of falling
interest rates and improvement in SML's credit rating.
FY16-18E PBT CAGR of ~10.11%
We have prudently assumed 31% tax for FY18E in line with union budget
direction on reducing corporate taxes by 5% over 4yrs.
FY16-18E PAT CAGR of ~14.06%
We expect SGM to retire Rs 1.0/1.6bn worth of debt over FY17-18E as there
are no major capex needs
To remain at current levels as SML has realized all o/s debtors and current
book is healthy.
Stringent working capital management to result in higher positive cash flow
from operations
SGM intends to spend about ~Rs 1.59bn in FY17E in adding cranes in the +650
MT categories. They will primarily cater to the higher requirements in the
wind sector.
FY18E FCF yield of 16.5%
We expect SGM to use the cash to largely repay its debt
Net cash position is very comfortable

Page | 6

SANGHVI MOVERS: RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY17

Income Statement
Year ending March (Rs mn)
FY14
Net Revenues
2,417
Growth (%)
(27.2)
Employee Expenses
136
Freight & Carriage Expenses
167
Other Operating Expenses
776
Operating Profits
1,338
Operating Profit Margin (%)
55.4
Other Operating Income
27
EBIDTA
1,365
EBIDTA (%)
56.5
EBIDTA Growth (%)
(41.1)
Depreciation
1,186
EBIT
179
Other Income (Incl EO Items)
54
Interest
462
PBT
(230)
Tax
(85)
RPAT
(145)
EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax)
(31)
APAT
(176)
APAT Growth (%)
(152.1)
EPS
(4.1)
EPS Growth (%)
(152.1)
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Balance Sheet
FY15
3,060
26.6
164
229
904
1,763
57.6
22
1,785
58.3
30.8
1,200
585
74
427
232
151
81
(57)
23
(113.2)
0.5
(113.2)

FY16
5,296
73.1
229
452
1,090
3,524
66.5
19
3,544
66.9
98.5
1,263
2,280
80
542
1,818
649
1,169
(69)
1,100
4,620.0
25.4
4,620.0

FY17E
5,827
10.0
263
496
1,265
3,803
65.3
12
3,814
65.5
7.6
1,544
2,271
29
489
1,811
579
1,231
1,231
11.9
28.4
11.9

FY18E
6,352
9.0
286
541
1,355
4,169
65.6
13
4,181
65.8
9.6
1,631
2,550
32
378
2,204
683
1,521
1,521
23.5
35.1
23.5

Year ending March (Rs mn)


SOURCES OF FUNDS
Share Capital - Equity
Reserves
Total Shareholders Funds
Long-term Debt
Short-term Debt
Total Debt
Deferred Taxes
Other Long-term Liabilities &
Provisions
TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Net Block
CWIP
Investments, LT Loans & Advances
LT Loans & Advances
Total Non-current Assets
Inventories
Debtors
Cash & Equivalents
ST Loans & Advances, Others
Total Current Assets
Creditors
Other Current Liabilities & Provns
Total Current Liabilities & Provns
Net Current Assets
TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

FY18E

87
6,403
6,489
2,629
2,019
4,649
855

87
6,457
6,544
2,711
629
3,340
862

87
7,412
7,498
4,692
1,398
6,090
929

87
8,491
8,577
3,692
1,398
5,090
929

87
9,860
9,946
2,142
1,398
3,540
929

49

49

49

11,993

10,746

14,567

14,646

14,464

10,048
3
0
257
10,307
102
1,488
186
83
1,859
109
64
173
1,686
11,993

8,913
175
70
143
9,300
102
1,235
281
85
1,703
109
149
258
1,445
10,746

12,556
60
292
12,908
106
1,551
41
341
2,038
202
177
380
1,659
14,567

12,602
60
160
12,822
192
1,680
111
160
2,142
222
96
318
1,824
14,646

11,971
60
174
12,205
209
1,744
455
174
2,582
239
83
323
2,260
14,464

Page | 7

SANGHVI MOVERS: RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY17

Cash Flow
Year ending March (Rs mn)
FY14
Reported PBT
(230)
Non-operating & EO items
(22)
PAT from Operations
(252)
Interest expenses
462
Depreciation
1,186
Working Capital Change
779
Tax Paid
(98)
OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a )
2,076
Capex
(86)
Free cash flow (FCF)
1,990
Investments
(92)
INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b )
(178)
Debt Issuance
(1,502)
Interest expenses
(489)
Free cash flow to Equity (FCFE)
0
Dividend
(50)
FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c )
(2,041)
NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c)
(142)
Closing Cash & Equivalents
45
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Key Ratios
FY15
232
(25)
207
427
1,200
240
8
2,082
(495)
1,587
152
(343)
(1,069)
(437)
82
(1,506)
233
278

FY16
1,818
(80)
1,739
542
1,263
(555)
(649)
2,340
(4,906)
(2,567)
10
(4,896)
2,750
(462)
(279)
(152)
2,136
(420)
41

FY17E
1,811
(29)
1,781
489
1,544
37
(579)
3,272
(1,590)
1,682
(1,590)
(1,000)
(460)
222
(152)
(1,612)
70
111

FY18E
2,204
(32)
2,173
378
1,631
(106)
(683)
3,392
(1,000)
2,392
(1,000)
(1,550)
(346)
496
(152)
(2,048)
344
455

PROFITABILITY (%)
EBITDA Margin
EBIT Margin
APAT Margin
RoE
Core RoCE
RoCE
EFFICIENCY
Tax Rate (%)
Asset Turnover (x)
Inventory (days)
Debtors (days)
Other Current Assets (days)
Payables (days)
Other Current Liab & Provns (days)
Cash Conversion Cycle (days)
Debt/EBITDA (x)
Net D/E
Interest Coverage
PER SHARE DATA
EPS (Rs/sh)
CEPS (Rs/sh)
DPS (Rs/sh)
BV (Rs/sh)
VALUATION
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Revenues
OCF/EV (%)
FCF/EV (%)
FCFE/Market Cap (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17E

FY18E

56.5
7.4
(6.0)
(2.2)
1.0
1.2

58.3
19.1
2.6
1.2
2.0
2.0

66.9
43.1
22.1
16.7
10.3
12.0

65.5
39.0
21.1
15.3
10.8
10.7

65.8
40.2
23.9
16.4
12.8
12.2

36.8
0.2
15.4
224.8
51.3
16.5
9.7
265.3
3.4
0.69
(0.4)

65.3
0.3
12.2
147.3
27.1
13.0
17.8
155.9
1.9
0.47
(1.4)

35.7
0.4
7.3
106.9
43.7
13.9
15.6
128.3
1.7
0.81
(4.2)

32.0
0.5
12.0
105.2
20.0
13.9
9.1
114.3
1.3
0.58
(4.6)

31.0
0.5
12.0
100.2
20.0
13.7
7.6
110.9
0.8
0.31
(6.8)

(4.1)
24.0
149.9

0.5
29.6
0.5
151.2

25.4
56.2
3.0
173.2

28.4
64.1
3.0
198.1

35.1
72.8
3.0
229.8

(64.5)
1.8
11.6
6.6
13.1
12.6
0.0
-

488.4
1.7
8.1
4.7
14.4
11.0
0.7
0.2

10.3
1.5
4.9
3.3
13.4
(14.7)
(2.4)
1.1

9.2
1.3
4.3
2.8
20.0
10.3
2.0
1.1

7.5
1.1
3.5
2.3
23.4
16.5
4.4
1.1

Page | 8

SANGHVI MOVERS: RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY17

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY

400

Date
10-Nov-15
9-Feb-16
27-May-16

CMP
337
327
285

Reco
BUY
BUY
BUY

Target
434
444
456

350

13-Aug-16

262

BUY

422

Sanghvi Movers

TP

500

450

300

Aug-16

Jul-16

Jun-16

May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-16

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

BUY

Oct-15

200

Sep-15

Rating Definitions
Aug-15

250

: Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period

NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period
SELL

: Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period

Page | 9

SANGHVI MOVERS: RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY17


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Page | 10

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