Disad: IndoPak

Uniqueness
1. The UNMOGIP is playing a growing role in mediating the IndoPak conflict.
a) The UNMOGIP is the United Nations Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan. It is a
peacekeeping operation intended to supervise the ceasefire between India and Pakistan.
b) Pakistan revived the role of the UNMOGIP after unprovoked firing from India in August of
2015. Prior to this, the UNMOGIP played little role in the conflict, having been replaced by the
Shimla Agreement in 1972.
c) Pakistan now routes all complaints about ceasefire violations and most complaints about other
acts of hostility through the UNMOGIP.
2. This has resulted in a significant decrease in tensions between the two nations.
a) On January 15th, Pakistan President Mamnoon Hussain stated that he is in favor of peaceful
relations with India and wants to resolve all outstanding issues through dialogue.
b) Pakistans prime ministers adviser on foreign affairs stated in January that there is already
visible improvement in relations with India.
c) India and Pakistan have scheduled high level peace talks in February. These talks have the
objective of drafting the agenda and guidelines for future talks between the countries.
d) Large decline in border skirmishes. Skirmishes went from multiple occurrences per month in
early 2015, to one or two per month in late 2015. There have been no skirmishes since November
2nd, 2015.
Links
1. Plan causes Pakistan to expel the UNMOGIP.
a) Pakistan has already stated that they dont want their peacekeepers to engage in extremely
dangerous operations (like Iraq), or in any offensive operations.
b) Pakistan originally refused to participate in the Foreign Intervention Brigade in the
Democratic Republic of the Congo. The UN and Pakistan eventually reached a compromise, with
Pakistan being assured that this kind of dangerous offensive was a one-time exception.
c) Plan is a giant Fuck You to Pakistan. Three ways. (1) Directly breaks the previous assurance.
(2) Sets a precedent for more dangerous, offensive operations (3) Sets a precedent of the UN
completely disregarding the desires of Pakistan.
d) Plan also angers the people of Pakistan, who see yet another instance of Western powers
attempting to exert control over the nation.
e) The result is Pakistan severing peacekeeping ties with the UN. This means no longer
providing peacekeepers to the UN and no longer allowing UN peacekeepers on their territory.
f) India already severely limits the UNMOGIP in their own territory, so the operation cant just
move to the other side of the border.
Internal Links
1. Expelling the UNMOGIP leads to IndoPak war

a) Incentivizes Indian aggression. Absent international monitoring, there is nothing to deter India
from acting aggressive on the border. Empirics prove the vast majority of border skirmishes
prior to the revival of the UNMOGIP were started by India.
b) Pakistan now must respond with disproportionate force. Indian aggression on the border
would be a massive threat to the governments credibility, especially after spending so much time
trying to revive the UNMOGIP. This mandates disproportionate military action in the face of
aggression in order to regain popular legitimacy.
c) Empirics prove the UNMOGIP is the only way to prevent war. The two nations came to brink
of war on multiple occasions under the Shimla agreement. The addition of a disproportionate
military response from Pakistan is all that is needed to tip the scales.
Impacts
1. IndoPak war kills everyone
a) Pakistan knows they would be unable to repel a conventional military incursion with
conventional military counterattacks. They know that nuclear weapons are their best chance.
b) Pakistan operates under a full spectrum deterrence nuclear strategy, meaning they are
willing to use nuclear weapons in response to both large scale conventional attacks or small
border incursions. India has also stated that any nuclear attack, even a small one, on its forces
would be met with an appropriate response. This means conflict goes nuclear extremely fast.
c) IndoPak nuclear war draws in other actors. The US is forced to get involved because of
security guarantees. All of Asia is forced to get involved because of proximity to India.
d) Once nuclear taboo is broken, all countries have an incentive to use nuclear weapons to
remain alive. Conflict would escalate into a try or die situation for all actors.
e) Nuclear war leads to extinction. It destroys 75% of the ozone layer and blocks out the sun,
killing all phytoplankton, collapsing the ocean ecosystem and killing everyone.

Counterplan
Text
NATO will deploy peacekeepers [to do plan]
Competition
We compete via net benefits. The counterplan solves the aff while avoiding the IndoPak disad.
Solvency
1. NATO peacekeepers are super effective
a) Better equipment. NATO peacekeepers have all the technology of Western superpowers. UN
peacekeepers only receive resources that are voluntarily contributed by member nations theyre
way behind, still using outdated guns and vehicles.
b) Superior training. UN forces are only trained on how to enforce ceasefires, whereas NATO
peacekeepers undergo full military training.
c) More funds. NATO countries are rich and spend lots of money on their militaries. They also
dont have a fixed peacekeeping budget. The UN has a fixed budget of roughly 8 billion dollars
for all peacekeeping operations combined.
d) Intelligence sharing. NATO members have an extensive intelligence gathering network. UN
peacekeepers dont get access to this, because NATO wont give up intelligence to an
organization that includes Russia and China.
2. NATO peacekeepers can engage in offensive operations, which allow them to pursue proactive
measures to prevent violence. UN peacekeepers are limited to self-defense, meaning they cant
engage the enemy until theyre already being shot at.
3. Avoids the IndoPak disad because it doesnt require the deployment of peacekeepers from
India or Pakistan.