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U.S.

2015 ANNUAL
I N PA R TN E R S H I P WITH

2015 DEAL COUNT


DOWN BY OVER 8%,
VALUE BY 4.8%

PAGE 5

MULTIPLES DOWN
TO PRE-2013 LEVELS
PAG E 7

ENERGY SPOTLIGHT
PAG E 10

LEAGUE TABLES
PAG E 19

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Credits & Contact


PitchBook Data, Inc.
JOHN GABBERT Founder, CEO
ADLEY BOWDEN Vice President,
Market Development & Analysis

Content
NIZAR TARH U NI Analyst
ANDY WHITE Analysis Manager
DANIEL COOK Senior Data Analyst
GARRET T BL ACK Editor

Contents

J ENNIFER SAM Senior Graphic Designer


J ESS CHAIDEZ Graphic Designer

Contact PitchBook
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RESE ARCH
reports@pitchbook.com

Introduction
Overview

5-6

Deal Multiples & Debt Levels

Deals by Deal Size & Sector

Q&A: Merrill DataSite

Spotlight: Energy

10-12

Q&A: Murray Devine

13

Exits Overview

14

Exits by Type

15-16

Fundraising

17-18

4Q 2015 League Tables

19

EDITORIAL
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SALES
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COPYRIGHT 2015 by PitchBook Data,


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written permission of PitchBook Data, Inc.
Contents are based on information from
sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy
and completeness cannot be guaranteed.
Nothing herein should be construed as any
past, current or future recommendation to
buy or sell any security or an offer to sell, or
a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.
This material does not purport to contain
all of the information that a prospective
investor may wish to consider and is not to
be relied upon as such or used in substitution
for the exercise of independent judgment.

3
P I TC H B O O K 2015 A N N UA L U. S . P E B R E A K D OW N R E P O R T

S P O N S O R E D BY

The buyout cycle


has begun to slow
Introduction

The private equity landscape of 2015 officially introduced us to the later stage
of the most recent buyout cycle. Moving out of 2009, PE activity moved higher

CO -S P O N S O R E D BY

YOUR JOURNEY
TO STRONGER
RETURNS
STARTS HERE

in linear fashion until pulling back last year, following a noticeable jump between
2013 and 2014. Global economies are facing real fundamental issues. The U.S.
is looking to raise rates and normalize policy, while maintaining steady inflation
growth and keeping unemployment low, among other initiatives. China continues
to shift from a commodity-based economy to one based on consumption,
in effect removing the credit-fueled marginal buyer that helped lead to the
ongoing rout in commodity prices. Exports are falling and the country devalued
its currency, ostensibly to mitigate against its U.S. dollar-pegged yuan from
continuing to increase against its trading partners. Japan continues to ease as
well, and emerging economies that had previously experienced decent growth
are stumbling again.
Across the PE landscape, dealmakers are assessing the best ways to move
forward in this environment. Simply pulling back is not necessarily a viable option
with the amount of dry powder limited partners have funneled into the asset

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class. General partners continue to move forward, but dealmaking dynamics


are shifting. Fundraising efforts remained robust, with median fund sizes rising

With data on:

for focused strategies such as energy-specific vehicles looking to eventually

Companies

capitalize on the distressed oil market. Multiples remained inflated, but more
realistic expectations around businesses of lower quality emerged. Also, due

Investors

diligence processes became very important in the middle market in order to

Deals

facilitate sales processes further.

M&A

In summary, 2015 was a turning pointthe nature of that turn, as well as its

Limited partners

extent, is viewed differently, but we believe the buyout cycle has begun to slow.

Funds

Activity in 2016 will move along and deals will get done, but concerns around
debt financing and the inventory of attractive assets will continue to be heard.

Financials

We hope the data and insights in this report help inform your decision-making

Advisors

process in 2016 and as always, please reach out with any questions, comments

People

and suggestions at reports@pitchbook.com.

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4
P I TC H B O O K 2015 A N N UA L U. S . P E B R E A K D OW N R E P O R T

S P O N S O R E D BY

CO -S P O N S O R E D BY

Last year was a turning point


Overview

2015 U.S. PE activity moved lower


in terms of both deal flow and
aggregate transaction value. Total
deal value came in at just under $606
billion across 3,602 completed deals,
representing a year-over-year (YoY)
decline of 4.8% and 8.2%, respectively.
While activity slackened on a yearly
basis, numbers remained strong
historically. Highlighting 2013 as a
comparison, 2015 deal value was still
up over 18% compared to 2013, with
deal counts remaining inflated by over
10% during the same period.

latest investment cycle is beginning to


experience. Firms are grappling with
how to adequately deploy the dry
powder theyve accumulated, which in

turn has increased competition for the


best assets and also helped underpin
multiples in many transactions.

2014 may well remain a peak for some time


U.S PE activity by year

$1,000
$900

3,923

# of deals closed

3,458

$800

$600

3,265

2,850

2,623

4,000
3,602 3,500

3,332

$700 2,859

The fact that 2015 counts declined


at nearly double the pace as value
speaks to the continued froth weve
seen across the PE asset class. We
firmly believe that since the bulk of
top-tier companies already came
to market in 2013 and 2014, the
trepidation that slightly lower-quality
companies faced in the market in 2H
2015 emphasizes the loss of fuel the

4,500

Deal value ($B)

3,000

2,549

2,500

$500

2,000

$400

1,769

$300

1,500

$606

$636

$512

$470

$408

$358

$0

$166

500

$393

$100

$938

1,000
$487

$200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: PitchBook

The end of 2015 marks a clear inflection point in investment trends


U.S. PE activity by quarter

$250
$200

774
$150

1,200

Deal value ($B)


# of deals closed

624

1,073

743

736

810

879

1,024

708

990 1,015

1,000

961 958

937

894

769

741

690 681

577

919

800
746

698

600

574

$100

400

$122

$198

$144

$142

$171

$160

$151

$153

$176

$126

$109

$102

$189

$96

$96

$89

$115

$92

$100

$101

$129

$77

$80

$0

$72

$50

200
0

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015
Source: PitchBook

5
P I TC H B O O K 2015 A N N UA L U. S . P E B R E A K D OW N R E P O R T

S P O N S O R E D BY

On a quarterly basis, we saw a hesitant


market before experiencing what
appeared to be an inflection point
as we transitioned from 3Q to 4Q.
1Q 2015 witnessed a decline of more
than 17% in value, along with a 7.7%
drop in volume compared to the last
quarter of 2014. A couple mega-deals
were able to prop capital invested
figures higher, with 3Q seeing a near38% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ)
jump in that segment. But that same
quarter, a Chinese stock market that
had appreciated over 60% through
the year experienced a colossal selloff, only exacerbated by a surprise
devaluation of its currency during
August. High-yield debt, which saw
spreads tighten to within 500 basis
points of risk-free assets following the
2007-2008 crisis, began to widen,
accelerated by a continued rout in
energy prices that led investors to
flee the bonds of many oil and gas
companies. The uncertainty brought
forward from these events manifested
in 4Q, which experienced a decline in
deal volume of over 22%, and an even
steeper 38% drop in aggregate capital
invested.

While all transaction types were


down during 2015, add-ons and PIPE
investments experienced the lowest
YoY decline, falling just 1.7% and 3.5%,
respectively. With the U.S. middle
market able to better shield itself
from global macro events that can
directly impact larger, multinational
enterprises, it comes as no surprise
to see portfolio companies continue
to find accretive add-ons. Despite
the troubled market environment we
saw begin to unfold in 2H 2015, addons actually accounted for 62% of all
PE activity, the highest percentage
weve ever tracked at PitchBook.
Examining PIPE rounds, GPs needing
to put money to work appear to have
been able to prove valuable sources
of capital to public entities that
otherwise would have faced significant
fundraising challenges in the public
equity markets. Further, unless
companies were able to show ample
cash flows to handle an increased
debt load, pricing would have been an
issue if they came to the bond market
to fill those funding gaps, especially
in the back half of 2015. With many
companies looking for M&A to gain

CO -S P O N S O R E D BY

access to the aforementioned cash


flows, the bond markets werent their
best choice, however we did see a
healthier lending environment across
the core middle market.
As we enter 2016, we believe the
uncertain environment will continue to
unfold. The public markets will remain
volatile, which will make comparable
valuations for those looking to price
private deals increasingly difficult.
With capital overhang remaining high,
dealmakers will continue to narrow
their focus on certain niches and will
need to become more creative to put
money to work, avoiding the need
to potentially increase fund lifetimes
and suppress IRRs. Multiples have
certainly moved lower in general, yet
strategics also nursing inflated cash
reserves will continue to compete
with PE for the best assets on the
market, and so multiples will remain
stretched for many deals. Quality is still
a primary concern, yet LPs continue to
funnel money back to the historically
outperforming asset class, so we think
GPs will continue to move forward, but
more cautiously.

Add-ons and PIPEs illustrate how GPs are diversifying


investment theses
U.S. PE activity by type and year

Add-ons hit a record percentage of total buyout


activity last year
U.S. add-on % of buyout activity

100%

3,000

0%

1,025

1,112
902

1,127

961

1,647

1,293

956
604

40%

Recap

PE Growth

PIPE

0%

Platform Creation

Add-on

Non add-on

Source: PitchBook

6
P I TC H B O O K 2015 A N N UA L U. S . P E B R E A K D OW N R E P O R T

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2006

2007
Add-on

20%
10%

Buyout

50%

30%
1,109

500

10%

865

20%

1,202

30%

952

1,000

852

40%

564

1,500

1,067

50%

1,475

60%

1,246

2,000

1,333

70%

70%
60%

2,500

80%

1,676

90%

62%

Add-on % of buyout
Source: PitchBook

S P O N S O R E D BY

CO -S P O N S O R E D BY

Multiples return to 2012 levels


Deal multiples & debt levels

The deal environment remains


expensive on a historical basis,
yet we began to see multiples slide
slightly in 2015. The median valuationto-EBITDA multiple recorded last year
was just over 9x, yet a few hurting
sectors, including the depressed
energy space, suppressed these
multiples. The multiple compression
also speaks to the decline in the
inventory of top-tier companies
coming to market. Any sellers with
less-than-robust financials or concerns
around their underlying businesses
could potentially reach the higher ends
of valuations in 2013 or 2014, but GPs
are now examining these transactions
skeptically to assess if they could
weather the next cycle. While the
market is in no way inaccessible
to these firms, they must settle for
slightly lower prices to get their deals
done. Conversely, top-tier companies
were able to demand higher multiples
and sail through diligence processes

without much difficulty at all. Another


factor that began influencing the
market in 2015 came on the debt
side. Weve touched on the havoc in
the junk-bond markets, and lending
for upper-middle-market and megasize brackets also became more of
a challenge. Banks are dealing with
regulatory pressures to manage
the risk-weighted-assets they hold
and thus have had to shy away from
lending to various deals. At the high
end of transaction sizes, buyers
and sellers have had to negotiate
prices lower and, in certain cases,
restructure signed deals in order get
the economics of a deal to work. Some
sectors feel these pressures more
than others, but it is something we
view will potentially become much
more widely felt as we move through
2016. That said, middle-market
lenders have definitely fared better as
theyve been able to better manage
their relationships with sponsors and

sectors to provide better flexibility


in that realm. Quality, however, is
still an issue in the MM, which has led
to heightened competition among
lenders, in turn introducing concerns
for them around pricing. What
weve seen play out in 2015 is more
conservatism regarding debt use in
PE. Debt-to-EBITDA multiples have
come down to around 5.1x compared
to 6.6x in 2014 and 6.4x in 2013, while
the median debt percentage in deals
has moved lower to 56% compared
to 60% in 2014 and 64% in 2013. We
think the trends we saw this year will
likely remain the same. And, as MM
lenders have to strongly analyze the
debt packages they underwrite or
purchase from originators to assess
the additional risk they can adequately
shoulder, we may even see debt
use move slightly lower, despite the
demand from sponsors.

Multiples slid last year, but competition for quality could slow the decline
Median EBITDA multiples for U.S. buyouts

Debt usage remains on the lower end


Median debt percentages for U.S. buyouts

12x

70%

9.9x

9.1x
4.4x

62.3%

64.0%

63.8%

0x

60.0%

60.0%

60.0%

56.6%
55%

55.9%

55.4%

50%

5.1x

6.6x

6.4x

5.4x

5.3x

5.0x

3.6x

6.3x

6.5x

6.0x

4x

65%
60%

4.0x

3.6x

9.0x
3.6x

4.3x

7.3x

9.6x

3.7x

6x

2x

8.8x

3.8x

4.2x

3.7x

8x

9.6x
3.6x

10x

11.1x

10.2x 10.5x

50.0%

45%

Source: PitchBook

40%

2006 2007 2008


Debt / EBITDA

2009 2010 2011


Equity / EBITDA

2012

2013 2014 2015


Valuation / EBITDA

2006

2007

2008

2009

Source: PitchBook

7
P I TC H B O O K 2015 A N N UA L U. S . P E B R E A K D OW N R E P O R T

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

S P O N S O R E D BY

CO -S P O N S O R E D BY

2015 sees spate of mega-deals, on


the consumer side in particular
Deals by size & sector
Continued interest in the U.S. middle market kept
proportions at a relative plateau
U.S. PE deals (#) by deal size
100%

$2.5B+

90%
80%

$2.5B+ transactions resurged in total


value in 2015, nearing $135 billion,
the largest sum in years.

$1B-$2.5B

70%
60%

$500M-$1B

50%
$100M$500M

40%
30%

$25M-$100M

20%

Some things dont change: B2B and B2C remained


dominant in shares of deal flow
U.S. PE deals (#) by sector
100%

B2B

90%
B2C

80%

10%
Under $25M
2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

0%

70%

Energy

60%
Source: PitchBook

50%

Financial
services

40%

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

0%

90%
80%

IT

10%
2008

$2.5B+

20%

2007

100%

Healthcare

30%

2006

Mega-deals came back in a big way in 2015, resurging


to proportions unseen for years
U.S. PE deals ($) by deal size

Materials &
resources

Source: PitchBook

$1B-$2.5B

70%
60%

$500M-$1B

50%
$100M$500M

40%
30%

$25M-$100M

20%

B2C in particular was skewed by a handful of huge


transactions
U.S. PE deals ($) by sector
100%

B2B

90%
B2C

80%

10%
Under $25M
2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

0%

70%

Energy

60%
Source: PitchBook

50%

Financial
services

40%

Healthcare

30%
20%

IT

10%
2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

0%
2006

IT saw another banner year, with the


combined total of deals since the
start of 2014 topping 1,000.

Materials &
resources

Source: PitchBook

8
P I TC H B O O K 2015 A N N UA L U. S . P E B R E A K D OW N R E P O R T

S P O N S O R E D BY

What is your general take on private


equity dealmaking for the first half of
the year?
While the equity markets opened to
a rocky start, the PE sector remains
poised for a solid 2016. Private capital
fundsincluding PEare seeking to
raise $946 billion in 2016. In 2015,
more than $500 billion was raised,
marking the sixth consecutive year of
growth in fundraising. Given all this
dry powder, we expect many firms to
put capital to work in 2016; however,
we may see fewer cross-border
transactions, particularly given the
uncertainty in China, the Middle East
and Latin America.

Richard A.
Martin, Jr.
Senior Director
Merrill DataSite
Richard A. Martin, Jr. is a Senior
Director at Merrill Corporation,
responsible for Merrill DataSites
global marketing group. His 18 years
of marketing experience working and
residing in the U.S., U.K. and Europe
has developed Martins understanding
of disparate business cultures and the
global financial industry, evidenced
by a successful record of growing
businesses. Martin currently works
closely with financial professionals to
provide first class virtual data room
(VDR) solutions for their transaction
and due diligence needs. Prior to joining
Merrill, Martin led the hedge fund
marketing strategy group at Morgan
Stanley Capital International and the
global equity product strategy group
at Reuters International, London. He
received his B.A. from Dartmouth
College, a marketing certificate from the
University of Michigan Business School
and currently resides in New York City
with his wife and children.

With regard to trends in due diligence


seen in 2015, how do you expect them
to fare in the first half of 2016?
As the world continues to shrink,
so does the due diligence timeline.
However, long before a buyer is even
in the picture, its imperative for sellside companies to conduct their own
due-diligencewith many companies
starting the process as early as 18
months prior to a potential M&A
transaction. As part of this process, we
are seeing more and more companies
purchase contract management
software that enables them to
easily identify and organize major
contracts in advance of buyer interest.
Beyond just contracts, companies
are organizing other key documents
in virtual data rooms (VDRs) to
ensure that they are made available
to potential buyers and position the
company in the best possible light.

CO -S P O N S O R E D BY

As we keep hearing about increased


focus on sell-side diligence, do you
anticipate transaction closing times to
fall even further, or what do you think
will happen?
With more and more at stake, selling
companies are increasingly conducting
their own internal due diligence to
improve transparency and identify any
information which could be construed
as problematic during the sale of a
company. In addition, companies that
pursue dual track (IPO/private sale)
will undergo a similar process that,
while not labeled as due diligence,
will ensure they are prepared to
successfully entertain both options.
In short, yes: Sell-side companies will
continue to expand their own due
diligence efforts and yes, this should
result in shorter transaction closing
times.
Whats your take on what measures
PE firms should take with regard to
cybersecurity threats to portfolio
companies?
Cybersecurity is now an every
company issue, even more so with
respect to PE firms as they are
increasingly utilizing connected
devices, effectively augmenting their
risk. According to Gartner, worldwide
spending on information security will
reach $170 billion in 2020. However,
its been widely reported that many
middle-market private equity firms
are ill-equipped to protect their own
data. We believe 2016 will be a year
where the PE industry will continue
to invest in cybersecurity measures,
which in turn will trickle down to
their portfolio companies. From a
completely different perspective, we
think cybersecurity is ripe for M&A.

9
P I TC H B O O K 2015 A N N UA L U. S . P E B R E A K D OW N R E P O R T

Spotlight: Energy
2015 totals indicate a pausing for positioning
U.S. PE energy deals by year

When volatility hit the market in


2014, the common sentiment was
certainly not that we would end up at
the beginning of 2016 with oil prices
teetering around the $29 to $30 per
barrel range. Over the past 12 to 24
months, the energy space has been
dealing with a massive supply glut that
began to induce negative price-action
in the commodity. While historically
Saudi Arabia has served as the swing
producer mitigating an oversupplied
market, its producers opted not to
be that player anymore in order to
preserve its own market position.

$140

350
Deal value ($B)

Deal count

$120
243

$100

246

260

252

232

301

300

266
250

201

$80

190

$60

200
150

141

$35

$73

$55

$58

$68

$37

$0

$24

50
$41

$20

$117

100

$46

$40

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: PitchBook

4Q saw the lowest numbers in years


U.S. PE energy deals by quarter

$25

Deal value ($B)

$20

87

83

76

52

66
52

51

78

75

64
$15

100

Deal count

58

65
54

66

58

65

69

90
80

67

60

70
47

58

60

48

$10

50
37

34
$5

30

$7

$7

$13

$8

$20

$21

$16

$15

$15

$16

$11

$13

$23

$9

$17

$9

$22

$12

$17

$17

$12

$6

$11

20
$8

$0

40

10
0

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015
Source: PitchBook

10
P I TC H B O O K 2015 A N N UA L U. S . P E B R E A K D OW N R E P O R T

S P O N S O R E D BY

A summary of what weve seen


unfold since then has included a
massive supply glut, fears of that glut
persisting if not worsening as Iran
threatens to come back to the market,
and geopolitical factors contributing
to uncertainty around when and
how often Libyan supply may come
online, along with other players across
the globe continuing to produce. In
addition, the strength in the U.S. dollar
only hurts other dollar-denominated
commodities, such as oil, due to
divergent global monetary policies
supporting current and expected
capital flows into the U.S. with rates
stateside beginning to rise, and a
declining rate environment abroad.
Energy firms have been able to employ
operational and financial levers to
begin cutting capital expenditures.
Theyve become more selective with
the projects they pursue, and have also
resorted to job cuts to weather the
low-price environment, yet many of
the factors forcing the commodity to
move lower do not appear to be fading
at any time in the immediate short run.
So what happens? We need a washout,
primarily consolidation in the markets
and bankruptcies to begin reducing
the abundance of supply in the space.
These are the events that happen at
the end of a cycle, and the savviest
investors have already begun readying
themselves for such occurrences.
Taking into account the above
snapshot, we saw GPs raise a
record amount of capital for energy
investments last year as more than
$35 billion was raised in 2015 for the
space across 18 vehicles. Interestingly,
the sheer amount of capital raised
is the largest amount weve ever
experienced, yet each of the three
years preceding 2015 raised more
vehicles by count, speaking to the

niche and distressed opportunities that


smart money is preparing to target.
While a record amount of energyspecific capital was closed on in 2015,
energy deal flow fell on a yearly basis
and came in at the lowest level weve
seen since 2009. 2015 saw just $34.7
billion invested into the sector across
190 completed transactions, a YoY
decline of nearly 53% in terms of deal
value and 37% in terms of deal counts.

CO -S P O N S O R E D BY

players are down some 70% as of this


writing. At $50 or $60 a barrel, we
began to see energy firms make the
right moves in capital expenditures
to shift break-even prices lower, but
at $30 per barrel, the lower bound
is simply too far down. Even Saudi
Aramco is having discussions about
floating assets, although many of
those are part of joint ventures, so
other parties have to be considered
before that can happen. At the
current price level, consolidation and
failure is inevitable as many smaller
companies cant sustain operations or
keep up with interest payments on the
massive amounts of debt borrowed
to fund their projects. Adding pain to
their wounds are the technological
developments around fracking the U.S.
has seen unfold in recent years, which
provides efficiencies that actually
help keep break-even prices lower.
This phenomenon only further hurts

The uncertainty in the market is no


surprise, yet producers are fighting
tooth and nail to continue staying
alive. GPs have come to market at
an opportune time to raise sufficient
capital to enter the space, but at this
point, there may not be any need for
them to deploy that capital when
they are likely able to pick up those
same assets in a bankruptcy process
at much lower prices. Weve already
seen Chapter 11s begin to increase in
volume, and the bonds of many energy

Players in the space are readying for action


U.S. financial vs. strategic energy deals (#) by year

500

Financial

Strategic

45%

% Financial

450

40%

400

35%

350

30%

300

25%

250

20%

200

15%

150
100

10%

50

5%

0%
2010

2011

2012

2013

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P I TC H B O O K 2015 A N N UA L U. S . P E B R E A K D OW N R E P O R T

2014

2015
Source: PitchBook

S P O N S O R E D BY

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incentives for higher prices as stronger


players understand the implications
and the benefits to their businesses if
weaker companies leave the market.

The last few years illustrate how PE firms are preparing to make plays
U.S. PE energy fundraising by year

As the bankruptcies continue, PE will


be able to play a pivotal role from
a couple of different angles. Funds
will be able to acquire high-quality
assets at a fraction of the price out
of Chapter 7s. In addition, GPs will
be able to evaluate capital structures
and look to buy the debt of certain
companies restructuring in Chapter
11s. These are all distressed assets, and
with the money already raised for firms
to deploy, PE players are certainly
aware of the opportunity to invest at
the bottom of the cycle. The space in
general is experiencing compressed
multiples, which will allow GPs to
acquire entire companies in various
cases as they gain firmer conviction
in their investment strategies around
the sector and multiples remain
subdued in the medium run. It should
be noted as well that oil price cycles
have historically taken the form of
prolonged super cycles, something
that will keep the space dynamic and
difficult to analyze for a considerable
period of time.

$35

$40

30
Capital raised ($B)

# of funds closed
24

$30

14

18
13

$15

15
11

11
10

10

$10

$35

$23

$28

$16

$8

$23

$10

$13

5
$20

$0

20

17

$20

$5

25

20

$13

$25

25

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: PitchBook

Only a handful of firms are already specifically targeting distressed assets


U.S. distressed debt fundraising by year

$60

23

$50

Capital raised ($B)


20

20

20

15

15

$30

15

15

10

10

10

10

5
$11

$18

$20

$13

$19

$15

$3

$48

$27

$7

$10
$0

25

17

$40

$20

# of funds closed

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: PitchBook

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P I TC H B O O K 2015 A N N UA L U. S . P E B R E A K D OW N R E P O R T

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To what extent will high valuations


be cushioned by strong demand for
quality targets into the next year?
Some have anticipated an increasing
spread in the range of multiples, with
top-tier assets still commanding hefty
purchase prices given continued
strong demand on the part of private
equity firms, as well as continued
access to ample stores of dry powder
and debt financing for worthwhile
targets.

Jordan J. Barnett
Director, CFA
Murray Devine
Jordan Barnett joined Murray
Devine in 2007 and is responsible for
financial analysis and advisory services
relating to financial opinions, portfolio
valuations and the valuation of business
enterprises.
Since arriving at Murray Devine,
Jordan has worked on numerous
engagements across many different
industries. He has participated in
the financial analysis, research, and
due diligence relating to enterprise
valuations of closely held businesses
for fairness and solvency opinions,
portfolio valuations, accounting and
other purposes.
Prior to joining Murray Devine,
Jordan worked as a Portfolio Manager
with Sovereign Bank, focusing on the
healthcare sector and managing an
asset portfolio in excess of $500.0
million. He was responsible for several
aspects of the underwriting process and
monitoring portfolio performance.
Jordan received a Bachelor of
Arts degree in Economics from the
University of Vermont in 2001 and a
Masters in Business Administration
with a concentration in Finance from
Villanova University in 2007. Jordan
is also a Chartered Financial Analyst
(CFA) charterholder.

It appears likely that high-quality


targets will continue to command
high valuations over the next year
considering the large amount of
capital in the marketplace. Were
still in a low-growth environment,
general partners are seeking solid
returns, and weve witnessed a trend,
particularly in the middle market, to
drive earnings growth and multiple
expansion through add-on strategies
incorporating synergistic acquisitions.
These strategies are designed to
improve purchasing power and open
up new cross-selling opportunities. It
is difficult to say whether or not there
will be an increasing spread in the
range of multiples, but if there is any
downturn in the economy, generally,
that tends to be the case.
Weve heard from other firms that
valuators are entering pre-acquisition
valuation processes soonerhave
you seen this as well and to what
do you ascribe this acceleration?
Furthermore, do you expect this to
persist into next year?
In certain cases, we have witnessed
this, particularly prior to the closing
of agreed-upon acquisitions. Some
of these instances have included
bond offerings in which preliminary
determinations of intangible asset
values have been required. In general,
the trend toward increased scrutiny
around valuations is being driven by
auditors and investors. As a result,
the valuation timeline is accelerating,
requiring the services of valuation

CO -S P O N S O R E D BY

firms that can move quickly to process


large amounts of information and
produce well-documented valuation
reports.
In recent months, have you seen a
material uptick in requests for fairness
opinions connected to wariness
around potential transactions? If so,
what factors are primarily behind the
change?
We have not seen a significant uptick
in requests for fairness opinions
except in the case of related-party
transactions. In these circumstances,
a market price is often not available
and the independent directors and
trustees will request that the parties
involved obtain a fairness opinion.
Increasingly, were seeing these
requests come from lenders and
other third-party stakeholders. The
requests are driven by the need for
some assurance that the terms of the
transaction approximate fair value.
Have you seen acceleration in the
demand for third-party valuations
of PE portfolio holdings? If so, what
are the primary factors behind the
increase and do you anticipate this to
ramp up even further in 2016?
Absolutely. The increased oversight
from regulators is driving a strong
demand for third-party valuations of
portfolio holdings. As part of that,
theres been an increased emphasis on
fair value and valuation procedures.
Weve also seen the incorporation
of objective, independent valuations
into the best practices of investment
manager valuation policies. This
trend extends beyond just private
equity, as other investors, including
hedge funds, business development
companies and pension funds are
bringing third parties in to provide
independent oversight to their periodic
portfolio valuation process. The goal,
in addition to greater transparency in
the valuation process, is to drive more
consistency in reported values.

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A year for the record books


Exits overview

With selling activity oscillating


throughout the year, 2015 closed
at new highs. More than $321 billion
was exited across 1,132 completed
sales, representing a YoY jump of 10%
in terms of exit value and a modest
drop of 2.4% in exit volume. Similar to
what we saw from buyers, companies
at the higher ends of the quality
spectrum were still able to fetch values
that were very generous, boosting
capital exited. In addition, it should be
noted that while exit volume declined
a bit, that figure is still the secondhighest count weve ever tracked, only
below the record 1,160 deals exited in
2014.
With volatility coming to the markets
the way it did in 2015, evaluations of
potential sale processes by portfolio
companies and their sponsors was
heightened. Across the middle market,
U.S. companies may be able to fend

better when evaluating their respective


businesses, but with owners at the
lower ends of the middle market
potentially looking for liquidity, any
increased volatility that could suppress
M&A activity by larger strategics could
dampen exit routes or significantly
depress the future multiples corporate
buyers would be willing to pay for
these smaller companies.
On a quarterly basis, exit counts and
sums exited dropped a bit during 3Q
before staging a comeback during the
last quarter of 2015. 4Q 2015 saw $91
billion of exit value across 286 sales,
QoQ jumps of near 13% and 3.3%,
respectively.
We think the U.S. economy will
certainly remain stronger than global
counterparts, and core-middle-market
businesses across many sectors
should fare well in the near future.

2015 closed at a new high for total value of PE-backed


exits, an immense $321 billion
U.S. PE exits by year

$120

1,160 1,132 1,200

$100

1,000

$80

100
$20
$0

$91

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

150

$80

200

169

$92

$321

$292

$202

$216

$148

$138

$50

$99

$189

$0

$146

328
$50

200

$58

400

$100

$40

209

$102

600

521

626

$60

300
250

249

230

$58

669

282 277 286

$58

800

287

$73

$150

919

753

760

350

334

$99

$200

272

305

$54

999

$250

311

$31

$300

400

# of exits

Exit value ($B)

# of exits

$18

Exit value ($B)

Stable exit activity and additional indicators suggest


appetite for PE-backed holdings could persist
U.S. PE exits by quarter

1,400

$350

However, heightened macro concerns


can introduce a contagion of sorts
across multinationals, which in turn
will undoubtedly affect their smaller
business partners. With that, our view
is that the window to achieve multiples
similar to what has been the norm is
narrowing. Further, the slight drop
in total exit volume in 2015 may be
attributable to owners holding out
for even frothier valuations than had
previously been seen in 2013 and 2014.
With the environment in that sense
remaining choppy and ultimately
flat, we wouldnt be surprised to see
owners opening up to exits at a slightly
elevated clip in 2016, hoping to achieve
liquidity and get to market before the
window closes. 2015s uncertainty
likely helped manage expectations
surrounding unrealistic exit multiples
sellers previously anticipated.

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

2013

Source: PitchBook

14
P I TC H B O O K 2015 A N N UA L U. S . P E B R E A K D OW N R E P O R T

2014

50
0

2015
Source: PitchBook

S P O N S O R E D BY

CO -S P O N S O R E D BY

M&A remains crucial


Exits by type

PE-backed holdings have only grown more popular among strategics


Corporate acquisitions of U.S. PE-backed companies by year

$300

700
630

# of exits

Exit value ($B)


$250

613

564

$200

407

500

507

435

600

384

400

$150
319

318
$100

300
200
$246

$189

$118

$120

$98

$37

$67

$88

$0

$89

$50

$106

211

100
0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: PitchBook

PE firms exchanged a record number of companies last year


Secondary buyouts of U.S. PE-backed companies by year

$100

600

Exit value ($B)

$90

# of exits

$80

455

$70

391

$60

241
90
$64

$78

$58

100
$86

$28

$86

$0

$35

$20

200

$27

187

$32

$30

$10

300

239

$5

$40

500
400

345

282

294

$50

480

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: PitchBook

Strategic acquisitions remained


the primary exit route for PE
last year, representing over 54% of
all PE-backed sales. As total exit
volume dropped slightly in 2015,
yearly corporate acquisition counts
declined by around 3%, yet total value
exited via the ramp was up 31% during
the same period, highlighting the
continued willingness of strategics
to pay expensive prices in search of
synergies to provide top-line revenue
growth and bolster earnings in a global
environment that has seen depressed
earnings growth. What should be
noted, however, is that strategic
purchases value grew more than 60%
between 2013 and 2014, rendering
the growth figure from 2014 to 2015
minute by comparison and prompting
questions about the potential future
growth rates of PE-to-strategic M&A.
Looking at PE-to-PE activity,
secondary buyouts by value were
down over 18% in 2015 compared to
2014 numbers. While representing 42%
of all exits, total value exited via other
GPs came in at $64 billion, relative
to more than $78 billion exchanged
between PE firms in 2014. Looking
back to the growth rate in the exit
ramp from 2013 to 2014, SBOs grew
close to 35% YoY in value during that
period. A couple of factors could
have contributed to this, including
the unabating expensive multiple
environment, along with various
GPs looking to develop in particular
niches to focus on greater operational
capabilities. In the case of the latter,
firms were likely willing to acquire
various assets that had become noncore to the focus or strategy of certain
GPs holding them.

15
P I TC H B O O K 2015 A N N UA L U. S . P E B R E A K D OW N R E P O R T

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CO -S P O N S O R E D BY

IPOs accounted for just 3% of all exits


in 2015, the lowest amount weve
seen since 2008this was expected
given the relative unattractiveness of
exiting via the public markets as other
ramps provided greater value and
simultaneously less risk. With public
markets trading at record valuations
amid continuous uncertainty, investors
are scrutinizing new listings with a
more critical eye, making it tricky
for sponsors to accurately gauge
public investors interest along with
increasing the difficulty of pricing
offerings. Its no secret that preparing
for an IPO is hardly a cheap endeavor,
so incentives to go public with the
risk of having to either push back
an offering or pull it all together are
weak. 2015 numbers further reinforced
this notion with just $11 billion of
PE-backed exits coming through
public listings, a near 56% YoY decline
from the $25 billion reaped by PEsponsored companies listing in 2014. In
terms of counts, 2015 saw 48% fewer
IPOs come to market than what we
saw in 2014.

PE-backed listings took a veritable nosedive between 2014 and 2015


U.S. PE-backed IPOs by year

The median exit size of strategic


acquisitions came in at $240 million
last year, a 13% increase over the $213
million recorded in 2014. While the
growth rate during the period was
far less than the 64% growth we saw
moving from 2013 to 2014, looking
back to 2009 highlights just how
coveted PE assets have become, with
that figure growing 3.2x from the $75
million median size recorded in 2009.
SBOs have experienced a roughly
14% decline in YoY median deal size
to $300 million. Interestingly, the
median PE-backed IPO that came to
market was close to 11% higher than
2014 numbers. With public listings
becoming a difficult endeavor, the
jump in that metric can be attributed
to top-tier PE assets opting for that
route with the proper fundamentals to
attract investors, or better-prepared
companies of scale finally making their
way to the public stage.

$150

$30

IPO value ($B)

67

67

$25

80

75

# of IPOs

70

59

60

$20

46

$15

50

44
36

27

$10

40

39

30
20

$5

10

$11

$25

$26

$10

$15

$8

$8

$4

$0

$16

$22

15

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: PitchBook

At $240M, corporate buyers were happy to pay up in 2015


Median U.S. exit size ($M) by type and year

$400
IPO

$350

Corporate Acquisition

SBO
$300

$300

$240

$250
$200

$212

$100
Source: PitchBook

$50
$0
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

The 1.7x ratio demonstrates just how much of a sellers market 2015 was
U.S. PE investment-to-exit ratio by year

2,500

4.0x
3.5x

2,000

3.0x
2.5x

1,500

2.0x
1,000

1.5x
1.0x
3.0x

3.0x

3.4x

3.7x

2.5x

2.3x

2.0x

2.1x

1.9x

1.7x

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2006

500

Investments/exits

# of investments (excl. add-ons)

0.5x
0.0x

# of exits
Source: PitchBook

16
P I TC H B O O K 2015 A N N UA L U. S . P E B R E A K D OW N R E P O R T

S P O N S O R E D BY

CO -S P O N S O R E D BY

Shifting strategies
Fundraising
from firms such as Sixpoint Partners
who work with GPs in their fundraising
efforts, its clear GPs also have found
success in raising capital for spinouts
and secondaries. In addition, the
distressed subsector of PE focus is
beginning to become a prominent
talking point, as we appear to be in the
late stages of the buyout cycle that
followed the 2007-2008 crisis. The
buzzword around strategies today is
niche.
At the beginning of the cycle, buyout
funds were able to raise significant
capital to take advantage of a
depressed-multiple environment. As
competition began to increase and
the economy strengthened, multiples
naturally climbed and we saw
growth funds come to market to take
advantage of minority investment
opportunities. To employ a baseball
metaphor, we are likely in the 7th
inning of this cycle, without a clear

Fundraising efforts remained fairly


healthy
U.S. PE fundraising by year
$350

$250

Capital raised ($B)

348

$300

# of funds closed
305

300
284

$200

214

$150

176

300
278

230

200

178

150

$181

$204

$229

$131

$111

$128

$86

$0

250

100
$245

$50

400
350

325

$100
$310

We view the sheer amount of


capital raised in 2015 as a sign of the
continued ability of GPs to come to the
market with new vehicles and garner
much interest from LPs. As weve
surveyed certain industry professionals

case for how long it will take to play


out remaining innings. At this stage,
weve seen vehicles the past couple
of years come to market to raise
restructuring and distressed debt
funds, as well as a record-setting
environment around energy-specific
fundraising. While generalist buyout
funds still account for the majority
of funds raised, 2015 set a record in
terms of capital earmarked for energy
investments.

$190

While producing results slightly


weaker than those of 2014, U.S.
PE fundraising efforts in 2015 were
still relatively healthy and robust. More
than $181 billion was raised during the
year across 278 vehicles, representing
a YoY decline of around 11% in terms
of capital raised and a 14% YoY drop
in the amount of funds closed. While
the declines in capital raised and
funds could potentially hint to some
that LP appetites might be declining,
the reality is that less capital is simply
needed with the amount of dry powder
accumulated over the past five years.
In the half decade preceding 2015, an
aggregate amount of $760 billion was
raised across 1,252 funds.

50
0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: PitchBook

4Q results led to the year ending on a high note


U.S. PE fundraising by quarter

$90

120

Capital raised ($B)

$80

99

# of funds closed

$70

86

$60
$50
$40

85

68
55

72

49

$30

68 72

60 62

59 60

100

86
71 70

80

75
62

51

40

42

$20
$34

$24

$19

$33

$36

$26

$36

$37

$80

$32

$80

$47

$54

$39

$64

$45

$36

$43

$56

$0

20
$33

$10

60

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015
Source: PitchBook

17
P I TC H B O O K 2015 A N N UA L U. S . P E B R E A K D OW N R E P O R T

S P O N S O R E D BY

Fund sizes hint at more targeted strategies and plentiful dry powder
Median U.S. fund size ($M)

$400
$300
$200

$177
$150

$100
U.S. buyout funds

$0
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

All U.S. PE funds

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source: PitchBook

LP interest in PE vehicles remains quite high


Time to close U.S. PE funds (months)

20
17
14.7
14

13.9

11

U.S. buyout funds

All U.S. PE funds

8
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source: PitchBook

Fundraisers are picking their targets more carefully


U.S. PE funds (#) hitting their target

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2006

2007

2008

2009 2010 2011 2012


Hit Target
Missed Target

2013

2014

2015

CO -S P O N S O R E D BY

$35 billion was raised in 2015 for


energy vehicles, a 55% jump over 2014
numbers and by far the largest amount
weve ever witnessed. Weve seen
the highly debt-dependent energy
space falter due to reasons touched
on earlier, and with companies in need
of serious funding, PE has positioned
itself to be able to acquire assets as
businesses enter distressed states. In
addition, with around $11 billion raised
for distressed debt funds, we view this
as PE firms preparing for a range of
Chapter 11s typically seen at the end of
a cycle in order to step in and purchase
some of the subordinated debt of
businesses they think will successfully
re-emerge and provide an attractive
return. The $11 billion raised for
distressed debt is far less than what we
saw in 2013 and 2014, potentially due
to GPs simply coming to market early
with these funds, wary of a fundraising
window closing prematurely in an
escalated environment.
With overhang remaining high and
plenty of vehicles gearing toward the
middle market, the median buyout
fund size declined 23% YoY to $150
million in 2015. However, looking at all
other strategies combined, the median
fund size closed slightly higher at $177
million relative to 2014, supplementing
shifting fundraising efforts in more
targeted strategies. Speaking to how
much investor interest in the asset
class persists, buyout vehicles closing
last year were able to hold final closes
in less than 14 months, the shortest
span weve tracked since 2006.
Overall, 2015 funds were able to close
in less than 15 months, the shortest
length since 2008. Furthermore, we
saw 88% of fundraisers hit their target,
the highest level in at least a decade.
The year ended on a high note: We
saw the most oversubscription in 4Q,
with over $56 billion raised during that
period across just 62 vehicles.

Source: PitchBook

18
P I TC H B O O K 2015 A N N UA L U. S . P E B R E A K D OW N R E P O R T

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CO -S P O N S O R E D BY

League tables
4Q 2015
Most active investors by deal count

Most active lenders by deal count

Most active law firms by deal count

ABRY Partners

19

Madison Capital Funding

23

Kirkland & Ellis

54

Apollo Global Management

12

Antares Holdings

21

Latham & Watkins

25

Audax Group

12

Fifth Street

Paul Hastings

25

HarbourVest Partners

12

BMO Harris Bank

DLA Piper

23

Kelso & Co.

10

NXT Capital LLC

Jones Day

17

Berkshire Partners

The Goldman Sachs Group

Ropes & Gray

16

Genstar Capital

NewStar Financial

Morgan, Lewis & Bockius

15

Warburg Pincus

Golub Capital

Goodwin Procter

14

The Blackstone Group

Credit Suisse

Sidley Austin

12

AEA Investors

Sumitomo Mitsui Banking

Skadden, Arps, Slate,


Meagher & Flom

11

Cornerstone Holdings

Twin Brook Capital Partners

11

Housatonic Partners

Monroe Capital

Honigman Miller Schwartz


and Cohn

Summit Partners

SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

The Carlyle Group

Bank of Ireland

Vista Equity Partners

Bank of America

Apax Partners

Ally Corporate Finance

Hellman & Friedman

Alcentra Capital

KRG Capital Partners

Babson Capital Management

Onex

Cadence Bank

Ontario Teachers' Pension


Plan

Deutsche Bank

FirstMerit

Ironwood Capital

Maranon Capital

BNP Paribas

MidCap Financial

RBC Capital Markets

TD Bank Group

Triangle Capital Corporation

Thoma Bravo

AlpInvest Partners

Bain Capital

Graycliff Partners

Partners Group

The Riverside Company

Triangle Capital Corporation

Most active advisors by deal count


Houlihan Lokey

17

Lincoln International

16

Raymond James Financial

15

William Blair & Company

14

Harris Williams & Co.

10

Evercore Group

Robert W. Baird & Co.

Jefferies & Co

The Goldman Sachs Group

Deutsche Bank

Greene Holcomb & Fisher

Morgan Stanley

Piper Jaffray

19
P I TC H B O O K 2015 A N N UA L U. S . P E B R E A K D OW N R E P O R T

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Merrill DataSite is a secure virtual data room (VDR) solution that optimizes
the due diligence process by providing a highly efficient and secure method
for sharing key business information between multiple parties. Merrill DataSite
provides unlimited access for users worldwide, real-time activity reports, sitewide search, enhanced communications through Q&A and superior project
management service - all of which reduce transaction time and expense. Merrill
DataSites multilingual support staff is available around the world, 24/7, and can
have your VDR up and running with thousands of pages loaded within 24 hours
or less.
With deep roots in transaction and compliance services, Merrill Corporation
has a cultural, organization-wide discipline in the management and processing
of confidential content. Merrill DataSite is the first VDR provider to understand
customer and industry needs by earning an ISO/IEC 27001 certificate of
registration the highest standard for information security and is currently the
worlds only VDR certified for operations in the United States, Europe and Asia.
As the leading provider of VDR solutions, Merrill DataSite has empowered more
than 2 million unique visitors to perform electronic due diligence on thousands
of transactions totaling trillions of dollars in asset value. Learn more by visiting
www.datasite.com today.

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