What important features of policy analysis do we draw from the Gordian knot metaphor?

1. Policy problems are knotty hence the term knotty problems/they are extremely
complex in nature. Such problems are difficult to understand.
2. Policy analysis is about understanding the knotty problems of policy
3. Policy analysis involves detailed examination of complex policy issues in a bid to
understand their nature and essential features.
4. Policy analysis entails separating or breaking up a whole into fundamental component
parts. It is about dissecting knotty problems
5. Policy analysis is investigative and also problem solving
6. The search for solutions to policy problems demands patience and discipline. They
cannot be solved by short cuts or quick fix solutions as was e Gordon knot case
7. Policy analysis is a profession and a process, it is a profession in which special
training, special knowledge has to be acquired
The principal targets of policy analysis

Policy analysis has policy as its main unit of analysis.

According to Pal (1989) policy analysis focuses on 3 elements of a policy

Policy determinants that is positive factors. These maybe be immediate and long term cause
or problem. The causes may be economic, social, cultural, political, biological etc.
Policy content that is the internal elements of the policy. Every policy contains;
definition of the problem this is a statement of the problems which identifies
the roots of the cause, the symptoms or manifestations, the people affected by
the problem and magnitude of the problem
policy goals
policy instruments- these are alternative means, measures, strategies or options
to be used
Policy impact-impacts are intended or unintended effects on the following:
I.
II.
III.
IV.

The target beneficiaries

The political system- might reduce the legitimacy of the government
Impact on the economy
The social system- is it likely to unify or disintegrate the society, unity at community,
district and national level. E.g. the land reform programme.

The nature of policy problems

Policy analysis is a heavily contested field of study. According to Hawkesworth policy

analysis is a field in ferment. It is a field characterised by heated contestations. Contestations
revolve around issues of
1.
2.
3.
4.

What is the nature of policy analysis?

What are the appropriate definitions of policy analysis?
What are appropriate models, methods and techniques in policy analysis?
What are the appropriate roles and responsibilities of policy analysts?

A burning issue is whether policy analysts should be guided by purely rational technical and
objective considerations or by political realism. Policy authorities such as Charles Lindblom ,
Laswel, view policy analysis an inherently political process while others such as Carley
present it as a rational scientific process concerned with the application of sophisticated
rational techniques. These long standing debates are manifest in Applied Social Science
Model of policy analysis and Applied Pluralist Model of Policy analysis.
Applied Social Science Model
This model has its roots in rationalism (rational decision making models). It views policy
analysis as a problem solving process/model. It views PA as a scientific process characterised
by objectivity and value neutrality/value free process. It argues that PA should generate
technical knowledge or specific competences. Technical knowledge is utilisable/usable, the
role of the policy analysts is to use technical knowledge to resolve problems of the nation. It
uses analytical tools to predict future scenarios e.g. CBA. PA must increase rationality,
discipline and efficiency in national decision making. As Hawkesworth puts it the more
often scientific counsel of policy experts is heeded in the policy process, the smaller is the
role played by irrational political forces.
Applied Pluralist Model
It approaches policy analysis from a political perspective. It advocates for political realism.
The model views policy formulation and PA as inherently imbedded in politics. PA is after all
about policy public problems. Public problems are inherently social and political. It logically
follows that policy analysis cannot be silent to issues of social improvement and distributive
justice. These arguments are most visible in the works of Lindblom, Laswel and Aaron
Wildvisky. The model questions the scientific claims of rational analysis. Especially the claim
of value neutrality. Policy analysis must generate usable political knowledge. This is

knowledge about the actually process of interest accommodation that is the politics of who
gets what when and how policy analysts are social therapists; they are concerned with
solving social conflicts. They should promote research, reasoned discourse and public
education as to what interests should be served under specific circumstances as well as the
means to do so.

Cost Benefit Analysis

Its one of the most commonly used rational techniques.

CBA can also be used as a framework for decision making, hence decision
making tool, an analytical framework.
CBA is ex-ante; done before a project is implemented to assess the
worthiness of a proposed decision or alternative.
CBA relies on prediction, forecasting, estimation of likely consequences of
the proposed decision.
It is futuristic
The consequences are the costs and benefits-the positive and negative.
Its rational is economic efficiency.
It ensures that resources are put to their most valuable use.
It alerts decision makers of cost implications
It provides a basis for rational decision making; choosing the one best
alternative.
In terms of origin, the rudiments of CBA can be traced to the writings of
Ben Franklin.
There are rfefernce to terms like pros and cons and also an attempt to
place a weight (value) on each decision.

Costs

Costs-negative effects of a prosed decision

The costs can be tangible or intangible
The term cost is used in the sense of financial literacy, costs of resources
consumed by the proposed project or alternative in input costs
Social costs (outputs), water pollution, degradation, displacement
Opportunity costs-forgone benefits, benefits sacrificed for the other
decision made. Costs you give up to gain the benefits.

Transitional costs-

Benefits

Improved job seeking status

Increased knowledge
Increased prestige
Increased income
Personal satisfaction

Reduction in mugging/road accidents

Direct effects
These could be direct costs or benefits, these are effects that are directly related to the
objectives of the project. These are the effects directly expected. They are the
primary/intended effects.
Indirect effects

These are the secondary effects. These occur in addition to the direct effects e.g. a

project directed towards flood control can coincidentally reduce soil erosion
Direct and indirect costs are real costs. These are net gains or net losses to the
individual or the community. These real costs should be included in the CBA

Multiplier effects

These are in the form of indirect or secondary effects. These usually take the form of
expenditure or income effects. The spending and re-spending sequence can in effect
multiply the original amount spent on the project several times. Multiplier effects are
included in CBA to show the impact of a project in a given locality. If workers must
be imported and most of the spending occurs outside the region the multiplier effects
will be reduced locally.

Pecuniary effects

This is not a real effect hence not included in CBA.

A pecuniary effect is a change in some peoples welfare at the expense of others. It is
a redistributional income which does not reflect any net gain in social welfare. These
do not represent any net gains or losses.

Externalities
These are spill over effect/by-products of the project. Externalities can be benefits or
costs as such can be ve or +ve. They are unexpected benefits for which no payment
is made or unexpected costs imposed with no direct compensation for example air
pollution, increase in mosquito population caused by the creation of an artificial lake.
CBA procedure
Determining cost and benefits of each alternative

Predict the likely effects or impacts, these are the possible benefits of each alternative
Valuation it is about attaching values or prices to the cost and benefits. Read market
prices
Discounting is a procedure for comparing costs and benefits which occur at different
times. Costs usually occur early and benefits later, their fore costs and benefits cannot
be compared straight out. Discounting reduces stream of costs and benefits to single
amount which is the present value (PV).
Why discounting?
Government projects are long term projects, their benefits occur over many years
Money has timed value due to inflation and risks
Individuals have time preferences
E.g. A project will cost only 20 million now but will generate 50 million in benefits over the
life span of the project. Is this project worth undertaking? It depends largely upon how long
is the life span of the project.

Discounting translates benefits and costs which will occur in the future to a present
value (DPV) this enable comparison. DPV is the amount of money which is
equivalent to a specified amount of money to be received (B) or to be paid (C) at

some specific future time.

In discounting we determine how much a benefit or a cost occurring in the future is
worth today

Discounting costs the costs are incurred right away, the present value of the cost is equal to
the stated amount.
Choosing discount rate

The discount rate makes the difference between a projects acceptance or rejection.
It must be chosen with extreme caution
We normally rely on the economic market to determine the DR.
Discount rates have varying impacts on. Too low a discount rate may over value the

future benefits.
Inefficient projects may be recommended and this defeats the essence of CBA
Too high a DR under values future benefits

What is the impact of discount rate if increased from 5% to 8%?

Decision making/ making a choice

1.

On what basis are you going to decide

Decisions or choices are made on the basis of set criteria
They are made on the basis of decision rules
Net benefit Criterion this criterion is stated as the Fundamental Rule which states in
any choice situation select the alternative that produces the greatest Net benefit. The
Net Benefit Criterion simply states that projects should only be undertaken if the
benefits outweigh the costs or if the Net Benefits are at least equal to the costs. Is the

net benefit positive or negative

2. Benefit Cost Ratio Criterion this refers to total benefits divided by total costs. (b/c)
According to this criterion a project should be recommend if its Benefit Cost Ratio is
greater than 1. A project should be rejected is the Ratio is less than 1. A project is
adopted because it has the largest Benefit Cost Ratio among competing projects.
NB the BCR may or may not lead to the same choice as the Net Benefit Criterion
Project
A
B

Benefit
10 000
100 000

cost
1000
250000

NBC
9000
75000

B/CR
10.1
4.1

The benefit Cost Ratio Criterion is less reliable than the NBC.
Pareto Standard/Criterion/Principle
A resource allocation/project is worthwhile if at least one person is made better off while no
one else is made worse off. Situation A is preferred to situation B if at least one person is
better off and no one else is made worse off. However in practice every resource allocation
or project intervention results in Net gainers and Net losers. Someone is made worse off
because of resources transfer
Kaldor- Hicks Criterion
it emerged from the weaknesses of the Pareto optimality. This criterion also emerged from the
realisation that there is need for side payments. It states that situation A is preferred to
situation B if the gainers could compensate the losers and still be better off. The net
gainers should compensate the net losers without being worse off after resources
redistribution. The principle does not however require that gainers actually compensate the
losers

When choosing/recommending clearly state the basis on which that choice is made that is, is
it on the basis NBC, BCRC, PC or KHC
Limitations of CBA

Difficulties in attaching values, that is assigning a dollar value to a cost or benefit.

These are referred as aggregation or quantification problems

The problem of intangibles
The temptation to under estimate the costs of the proposed projects
CBA tends to be silent on distributional issues

The role of the Policy Analyst

PA have a critical role to play in policy analysis however there is no consensus on how this
role should be exercised. Core issues/questions are should PA undertake their roles without
regard to value judgements or politically determined values or distributional effects. Others
however argue that PA should be practical and realistic enough to accept political constrains.
In practice PA depends on value judgements for meaning that is interpretation of a public
problem depends on the PAs world view.
Who are Policy Analysts
They go by various tittles; they operate within and outside governments. Within governments
they are found in all levels of government e.g. as programme evaluators, policy analysts,
auditors, special advisors, planners, coordinators, parliamentary research stuff, academics,
private consultancy and consulting firms and development agencies e.g. UNDP, WB
As public servants they are supposed to be neutral but at the same time loyal to the
government and its general goals.
1.
2.
3.
4.

The role of the policy analyst is to produce arguments or debates in public policy
Produce evidence for decisions in public policy
Act as internal organisational consultancy
Act as external policy consultancy

How should policy analysts mitigate bias?

Bias is inevitable in PA however efforts should be taken to mitigate the effects of bias

By identifying all underlying assumptions

Keep accurate reference or statistics

Use multiple sources of information

Identify the formal and informal actors & institutions
Avoid emotionally loaded concepts

Institutionalisation of policy analysis

Source ; Ojaghohunmi, G.A (1980) Institutionalisation of policy analysis in developing
countries
What is institutionalised policy analysis?
It is about establishing policy analysis institutions. It is about creating specialised structures
or units within and outside the state. These are also called policy analysis and review units
(PARUs). These units are mandated to undertake long range research and analysis of the
policy issues facing the nation. Institutionalisation of policy analysis is also about creating a
culture of policy analysis that is behavioural patterns that are associated with good policy
analysis. A culture of policy analysis is characterised by systematic analysis, monitoring,
evaluation of policy making processes. A culture of PA also implies best practices in PA that
is objective analysis of issues. The theoretical basis/justification of institutionalising PA is
rooted in Professor Yehezkel Drors model of optimal policy making. According to this
model policy making requires systematic thinking that is based on knowledge and long range
analysis of policy issues. The model also calls for the establishment of specialised structures
responsible for collecting, processing and analysing information on a long term basis. As
explained in this model optimal policy analysis is achieved when policy analysis units meet
the following conditions
1.
2.
3.
4.

Stuffed by professionals drawn from multi-disciplinary backgrounds

The unit should enjoy institutional functional autonomy
Research freedom
Direct access to information at top level decision makers

Why institutionalisation of policy analysis

To build state capacity for policy making that is capacity for policy formulation,
implementation, monitoring and evaluating. This capacity is critical for enhancing
policy service delivery
Policy making is an uncertain and complex process
Lindblom characterises policy making as a process with no beginning or end
While Dror characterises policy making as extreme gambling.

Because of this policy making has to be studied, researched, analysed and

strengthened.
To promote systematic and long range interrogation/analysis of national issues
Most African countries despite attaining political independence in the 1960s they are
yet wield effect overall control over their policy systems and resources endowments
(lack of local policy ownership)
An institutionalised culture of policy analysis is there for needed to solve what Baffor
Ankomah refers to as the great African conundrum
The great conundrum is a puzzling question about why Africa despite being the
richest continent in the world by natural resources has remained the poorest by bank
balance
Why is Africa the richest poor continent?
Institutionalisation of policy analysis should enable the continent to own and
efficiently manage these resources. In Zimbabwe and the rest of Africa resource
extraction and utilisation has for decades been at the expense of local beneficiation
and value addition
Resources continues to be exported in their raw state creating employment
opportunities else. Implied here is that policy analysis if adequately utilised serves as
a portent tool for economic liberation of the continent
It also noted that African countries have gone through bouts of socio-economic crisis
These experiences has generated state fragilities in terms of fiscal capacity,
policy/service delivery
Against this background mainstreaming of a policy analysis culture should be viewed
as a weapon/instrument for turning around the economy
Sound turnaround policies are anchored on effective policy analysis
In Zimbabwe the successful implementation of Zim-Asset directly rests on the extent
to which a policy analysis culture is institutionalised in the policy environment and
state institutions.

Policy management

It is essentially about managing the policy processes

It is an approach that emphasis management of policy identification, policy

formulation, implementation and evaluation

It is essentially about applying management functions to policy processes

It questions the extent to which attention is given to issues of planning, organisation,

coordination, control, monitoring and evaluation in national policy processes

It demands strategic or pro-active policy planning. This ensures smooth

implementation of policies
Planning also ensures that resources are availed at appropriate times
Policy management also sensitises policy makers to the need to create appropriate

organisational structures and organisational linkages

Policy coordination ensures that relevant policy players are effectively coordinated.
Effective policy coordination also prevents resource wastage and duplication of

functions.
Effective policy monitoring and evaluation ensures that policies remain focused on
achieving set targets. It also ensures that policy authorities keep track of internal and
external factors that may derail policy implementation.

Policy governance

The term policy governance has to be conceptualised within the context of the

governance discourse.
Governance refers to the way of manner in which political power is shared and
exercised in the management of a countrys economic and social resources.

Good governance demands

strong and participatory civil society

Open and predictable policy making processes
Transparent and accountable executives
Respect for rule of law and human rights

Policy governance therefore reflects a concern for best practices in national policy
systems. It specifically questions the extent to which policy processes are inclusive,
participatory, transparent, legitimate, accountable, representative, responsive, gender
sensitive and equitable

How do we institutionalise PA in policy management and governance?

PA provides the foundation for sound policy management and governance. The 3
concepts are mutually reinforcing

There are several patterns of institutionalising policy analysis, management and

governance.
1. Public commission of inquiry, these are set up to investigate issues and
generate policy recommendations. Public commissions of inquiry are therefore
ad hoc institutions. In Zimbabwe they include the Smith Commission set up to
review the public service, the Rukuni Commission meant for reviewing the
agric sector, the Nziramasanga Commission set up in the 1990s to investigate
matters in the education sector, the Land Audit Commission of 2000 and the
Public Service Audit Commission of 2009 to investigate ghost public workers.
However policy makers are not legally obliged to implement their
recommendations or even make them public. In some cases their
recommendations generally gather dust in government shelves.
2. Universities and inter-university institutes, universities offer courses, degrees
and training in public PA. Academics conduct independent research which
informs/feeds into government policies. However, they involvement in PA,
management and governance is some cases compromised by mistrust between
governments and universities. Governments are not utilising much from
university research.
3. Establishment of policy analysis and review units (PARUs), these are created
within government ministries. These are specialise units/divisions that
provides policy advice authorities in the government. They enjoy easy access
to what Dror (1986) calls central minds of government. They can also
analyse policy problems at short notice, they are also trusted by governments.
However pressure of works can compromise depth of analysis
4. Think Tanks