10/14/2016

HydraulicDesignManual:ValidationofResultsfromtheChosenMethod

Section8:ValidationofResultsfromtheChosenMethod
Designflowsestimatedwithanymethodusedshouldbeconfirmedandvalidated.Thismaybeachievedby:
1.Comparingthepredicteddesignflowfortheselectedfrequencywithobservedflowstoassess
reasonableness.Thebinomialdistribution,whichisavailableasafunctioninmostspreadsheet
software,ishelpfulforthisassessment.Itcomputestheprobabilityofyexceedancesinagiven
periodofnyearsofadesigneventthathasanAEPofpas:

Equation41.
Where:
P=probability(0to1)ofyexceedancesinnyearsfordesignlevelp
y=numberofdesignexceedances
n=numberofyears
p=DesignAEP(0to1)
NotethatpinthisequationisAEPandrangesfrom0to1.Soforthisequation,pistheselected
designfrequencydividedby100.
Suppose,forexample,thatina20yearlongrecordofobservedflows,thecomputed1%AEPflow
wasfoundtohavebeenexceededinthreeyears.Withthebinomialdistribution,theprobabilityof
thisiscomputedas0.001oraboutonechancein1000.Thisissounlikelythatitraisesdoubtabout
theestimateofthe1%chanceflow,suggestingthatthecomputeddesignflowistoolow.Fewer
exceedanceswouldbereasonable.
Similarly,supposethatthe10%AEPdesignflowwasnotexceededatallina30yearlongrecord.
Thebinomialdistributionshowsthattheprobabilityofnoexceedancesofthe10%AEP(10year)
flowin30yearsis0.04againanunlikelyscenario.Thissuggeststhatthe10%flowpredictedistoo
highmoreexceedanceswouldbereasonable.
2.Comparingthedesignflowcomputedwiththeselectedmethodwiththosecomputedforthesame
AEPforwatershedswithsimilarpropertiesinotherstudiesintheregion.Aflowperunitarea
comparisonisuseful.Significantdifferencesshouldbeinvestigatedandexplained.
3.Comparingtheresultsofothermethods,ifthoseareappropriate.Forexample,insomecases,both
therationalmethodandtheregressionequationswillbeacceptablefordesignflowcomputation.Or
ifafrequencyfunctionisfittedwithstatisticalmethods,thedesignflowscanbetransposedfromthe
gaugedsitetothelocationofinterest,usingmethodsdescribedlaterinthismanual.
4.Comparingthedesignflowcomputedwiththeselectedmethodtodesignflowforthesamefrequency
computedbyotheragencieswithdifferentmethods.Thesemayincludelocalpublicworksagencies,
theUnitedStatesArmyCorpsofEngineers(USACE),theFEMA,andtheNaturalResource
ConservationService(NRCS).Significantdifferencesshouldbeinvestigatedandexplained.
Theresultsofthesealternativemethodscanbecompared.Again,significantdifferencesshouldbeinvestigated
andexplained.

http://onlinemanuals.txdot.gov/txdotmanuals/hyd/validation_of_results_from_the_chosen_method.htm

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