Global Trends on Urbanization

Cities are the manifestation of the cultural, economic and social acceleration that
we have experienced in our modern history. In 1950 about 2/3 of the population
worldwide lived in rural settlements and 1/3 in urban settlements. By 2050, we
will observe roughly the reverse distribution, with more than 6 billion people
living in the messy, burgeoning athmosphere of urbanized areas.
According to the Sustainable Urbanization Policy Brief, urban centres currently
occupy less than 5% of the worlds landmass. Nevertheless they account for
around 70% of both global energy consumption and greenhouse gas
emission. Innovation in urban infrastrucure and technology is essential when
addressing this issue. For instance, greenhouse gas emissions could be reduced by
up to 1.5 billion CO2e annually by 2030, primarily through transformative change in
transport systems in the worlds 724 largest cities.
Urban planning decisions and strategic design thinking in the context of rapid
urbanization account for social equity, mobility patterns, global competitiveness and
energy-efficiency. In that sense a brief comparison between Atlanta and Barcelona
shows at a glance that cities with similar populations can have very different carbon
emissions, depending on how the urban layout is conceived. With urban area of
4,280 km2, Atlantas carbon emissions are ten times higher than those in the city of
Barcelona, whose built-up area is 162 km2. Both cities have population of about 2.5
million people.
As densities decline, city areas grow faster than city populations and affect
environmental sustainability at a local, regional and global scale. How we manage
this unprecedented urban growth in the following years is likely to determine the
outcome of our sustainability endeavours.
Between now and 2050, 90% of the expected increase in the worlds urban
population will take place in the urban areas of Africa and Asia . In other words
the projected urban growth will be concentrated in cities in the developing
world where the correlation of the rate of urbanization with economic growth has
been weaker.
The global trends of urbanization in the first decades of the 21st century are
significantly different from what we have experienced so far in terms of urban
transition. Urbanization is taking place at lower levels of economic development and
the majority of future urban population growth will take place in small- to
medium-sized urban areas in developing countries. Expansion of urban areas
is on average twice as fast as urban population with significant consequences for
greenhouse gas emissions and climate change.
According to this years United Nations report on World Urbanization we will observe
the following trends:

Continuing population growth and urbanization are projected to add 2.5

billion people to the worlds urban population by 2050, with nearly 90% of
the increase concentrated in Asia and Africa.
The fastest growing urban agglomerations are medium-sized cities and
cities with less than 1 million inhabitants located in Asia and Africa.
Most megacities and large cities are located in the global South.
Just three countries India, China and Nigeria together are expected to
account for 37 per cent of the projected growth of the worlds urban
population between 2014 and 2050. India is projected to add 404 million
urban dwellers, China 292 million and Nigeria 212 millions.
Close to half of the worlds urban dwellers reside in relatively small
settlements of less than 500,000 inhabitants, while only around 1/8 live in
the 28 mega-cities with more than 10 million inhabitants.
The number of mega-cities has nearly tripled since 1990; and by 2030,
41 urban agglomerations are projected to house at least 10 million
inhabitants each.
Tokyo is projected to remain the worlds largest city in 2030 with 37 million
inhabitants, followed closely by Delhi where the population is projected to
rise swiftly to 36 million.

Contribution to the increase in urban population by country, 2014 to 2050.

Urban scaling holds both the key to long-term sustainable development and
irreversible damages to our planet. The expected increase in urban land cover
during the first three decades of the 21st century will be greater than the
cumulative urban expansion in all of human history. These unprecedented
rates of urbanization put enormous pressure on environmental sustainability
thresholds and indicators. Tackling strategic components of urban form such as
density levels, land use patterns and connectivity will have a major impact on the
global economy and climate.

The informal sector covers a wide range of labor market activities that combine two groups of different
nature. On the one hand, the informal sector is formed by the coping behavior of individuals and families
in economic environment where earning opportunities are scarce. On the other hand, the informal sector
is a product of rational behavior of entrepreneurs that desire to escape state regulations.
The two types of informal sector activities can be described as follows:
1. Coping strategies (survival activities): casual jobs, temporary jobs, unpaid jobs, subsistence
agriculture, multiple job holding;
2. Unofficial earning strategies (illegality in business):
2.1. Unofficial business activities: tax evasion, avoidance of labor regulation and other
government or institutional regulations, no registration of the company;
2.2. Underground activities: crime, corruption - activities not registered by statistical offices.
The informal sector plays an important and controversial role. It provides jobs and reduces
unemployment and underemployment, but in many cases the jobs are low-paid and the job security is
poor. It bolsters entrepreneurial activity, but at the detriment of state regulations compliance, particularly
regarding tax and labor regulations. It helps alleviate poverty, but in many cases informal sector jobs are

low-paid and the job security is poor. The size of the informal labor market varies from the estimated 4-6%
in the high-income countries to over 50% in the low-income countries. Its size and role in the economy
increases during economic downturns and periods of economic adjustment and transition.

For the first time in human history, over half of the worlds population now
live in cities. The ongoing trend toward urbanization will create a staggering
increase in city populations of 2.8 billion by 2050. The vast majority of this growth
will be in emerging market countries.
Driven by the desire for better living conditions, education, medical care and
culture, this new migration is one of the most significant shifts in human habitation
ever witnessed. One of the results of this is a change in the sources of economic
prosperity, with 60% of the worlds GDP now generated by roughly 600 cities.
But this massive influx places tremendous burdens on existing urban
infrastructures. Planners, officials, developers and builders are being forced to
rethink urban life, and adapt.
City growth trends worldwide
The fastest urban growth rates are in Africa, the Middle East, Latin America,
and Asia. If we just look at urban conglomerations (metropolitan areas with over 1
million inhabitants), by 2020 China is projected to have 121 such areas followed
by India with 58.
In the meantime, new megacities of 10 million or more inhabitants have been
springing up throughout the emerging economies, such as Shanghai, Sao Paulo,
Istanbul, and Lagos.
The continued growth of large cities is also found in developed economies. By
2020, the USA will have 46 urban conglomerations, fueled by a growth rate that is
over 30% higher than for the country as a whole. The trend is similar in the rest of
North America and Europe.
Reimagining and restructuring urban life
Efficient urban planning and infrastructure development is crucial to
maintaining a quality of life that sustains and supports business, industry and
commerce, not to mention daily life. This includes managing basic services such as
water, electricity, sewage and mobility.
It also includes creating additional residential and commercial space. For
instance, an estimated 250 million new housing units will be required by 2030
across the 12 countries that account for 61% of the global population. This

skyrocketing housing need further highlights the advantages of mid- to high-rise

buildings as places to live and work. These buildings occupy less land space while
also allowing for the centralized and intelligent control of energy.
The development of new commercial and residential properties presents an
enormous opportunity to improve the way cities are organized, as current
technology enables cleaner, greener and more cost-efficient high-rise buildings than
ever before.
Managing the flow
Effectively managing the flow of people moving within and between buildings
is not a luxury, but a necessity. For example, imagine the chaos, fear and lost
revenue, if all the elevators in a large city suddenly stopped moving.
Recent developments in advanced people-moving technology by the worlds
leading elevator companies include faster speeds, improved safety, the use of
sophisticated algorithms in managing flows, and a sharp decrease in the floor-space
taken up by elevator shafts.
Given the scale and geography of overall population growth, increase in
aging population numbers, and the projected number of new constructions, there is
a pressing need for advancement in the technologies of non-vehicular horizontal
and vertical mobility. The incentive is clear: by 2016, the global demand for these
mobility solutions is projected to rise over 5% annually to 52 billion euros.
Companies like thyssenkrupp are investing in the development of new technologies,
in people, and in enlarging their global footprint to contribute to making existing
and future cities the best living spaces on our planet.
Re-visioning the structures of human prosperity
The majority of the planet now lives and works in cities. If economic growth is
coupled with better networked communities and more environmental friendly
practices, human prosperity could be redefined as the win-win formula of the future.
In this vision, the entire urban space works interactively with its inhabitants,
businesses and public sector to raise the shared value of their communities. They
will be assisted by new connective technologies and by a flexible, inclusive
approach to urban planning.
Cities around the world are waking up and seeing our planet for what it has
become: an urban landscape. This new metropolitan century is just the start of an
exciting new era in human existence. If we meet the challenges wisely, humanity
could well be on its way to creating the most sustainable and inclusive urban
ecosystem in history.