Académique Documents
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Initial Jobless Claims: Survey 450k Actual 456 Prior 453 Revised 459
• The top commander in the largely stalemated Afghanistan war acknowledged Thurs. that a
crucial campaign to secure the region of the country where the Taliban insurgency was born will take
longer than planned as local Afghans do not yet welcome the military‐run operation. Washington Post
• Upper‐income Americans' self‐reported average daily spending soared 33% in May compared
with April 2010 and May of last year. As a result, overall consumer spending increased 14% even as
middle‐ and lower‐income Americans' year‐over‐year spending was unchanged ‐ Gallup
• According to the Fed Beige Book published on June 9, overall economic activity continued to
improve in all Federal Reserve Districts, although many reported "modest" paces of growth. Consumer
spending improved, concentrated in "necessities as opposed to big ticket items." Employment and
capital spending edged up, while the report noted "inventory adjustment slowing." Though districts
reported an increase in housing activity prior to the deadline of the homebuyer tax credit on April 30,
the report also noted elevated levels of inventory and shadow inventory of homes. Commercial real
estate activity remained weak. Financial sector activity remained largely unchanged, while commercial
and industrial lending remained weak in most districts, and consumer lending weakened. Some districts
cited concerns regarding the potential impact of the European crisis on financial and business
conditions. Labor market conditions improved slightly, and most districts reported an increase in
temporary hires. Wage pressures were "limited," and input prices were not passed along to customers,
keeping prices of final goods largely unchanged. – RGE Monitor
• Chinese exports 48.5% yr/yr in May, the biggest increase in six years, and property prices rose
again, suggesting Europe’s sovereign crisis is not hurting China’s economy. – the real fear here has been
that fiscal tightening in Europe triggers a slowdown, which triggers weaker demand for Chinese and
Asian exports (China sells more ‘stuff’ to the EU than to the US, see chart below). Due to the fact that the
majority of growth projections are sourced out of Asia, a slowdown in that region has a material impact
on global growth projections (including US). In the long run, growth is everything. So if a projection for
growth is taken down even just a little bit, that creates a downward revision to every single number from
here out into the future. As those numbers are discounted back to the present value this seemingly small
change in the growth outlook can dramatically change the current price of an asset. The focus lately has
been on downside risks, this works both ways if growth is revised up.
Chinese Exports
• Bloomberg News says a second Goldman Sachs CDO deal is being investigated by the SEC. There
are scant details, and there may be no new charges brought, but it’s a reminder the SEC is actively
investigating several deals done by several large banks ‐ FTN
• Spain bond auction goes well, helping sentiment; Spain sold EUR3.9 billion of 2.50% October
2013 paper; demand metrics v strong (b/c 2.11 vs 1.79 at last auction in Apr)
• BP ‐ the stock is in the red in London but well off its lows (shrs hit 345p earlier but is now up
around 375p); the stock was hit in the US on Wed amid worries that its liability in the Gulf was rocketing
higher (the US Interior Sec, during testimony on Wed, suggested that BP would be forced to pay wages
to all the workers laid off as a result of the deepwater drilling ban while officials are threatening to "take
action" to ensure the company has enough money to pay all claims)