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However, according to Kose (2006), the impact of FDI to economic growth depends on a host economy's
economic foundation. Countries meeting appropriate conditions such as enough level of financial market
development, institution development, better governance, and appropriate macro policies tend to reap better
growth and stability benefits, or "collateral benefits", from FDI. Kose concluded that the difference in initial
economic conditions in the host economy would influence the macroeconomic outcomes of capital inflows.
In this study, we will analyse how FDI affects economic growth of the host economies in East Asian
economies. The objective of this study is not only to examine the impact of FDI on host countries' growth but
also to examine the effects of threshold conditions in East Asian economies. We will separate fifteen
economies in East Asia into three groups with different initial economic conditions and compare the impact
of FDI among them. We ascertain that the impact of FDI on growth varies among different groups of the
economies. In our study, we apply a panel cointegration technique using pooled regression model and fixed
effect model to analyse the differential impact. The findings from this study will increase our understanding
on how FDI affects economic growth and will help policymakers in searching for policies that promote
economic growth that contributes to sustainable development.
Section II will provide the overall overview of FDI and economic growth in East Asian economies during
1990-2009. In section III, we present some review of literatures on the impacts of FDI on economic growth.
Section IV presents our empirical model, with the results of this study presented in section V. Finally, our
conclusion and policies implication are presented in section VI.
II. Overview of FDI Flow and GDP Growth in East and Southeast Asia
In order to determine the relationship between FDI and a host economy's economic growth, we look at trends
of GDP growth, FDI, and other economic conditions. During the past two decades, there has been a major
shift regarding the size and composition in the cross-border financial flows to developing economies,
especially in East Asian economies. According to data from World Economic Outlook, IMF and World
Investment Report, UNCTAD, FDI flows and foreign portfolio flows to developing economies started
growing in the 1980s and expanded at an accelerated rate after 1990, as shown in Figure 1. For all types of
capital flows, FDI is the most important source of funds relative to other types of investment flows,
especially in East Asian developing countries. Table 1 shows that inward FDI in East Asia has increased
dramatically. The volume of FDI inflows during 2006-09 was as high as US$972 billion, compared to only
US$556 billion during 1996-2000, showing a near twofold increase. Even in 1997, the year of Asian financial
crisis, the value of inward FDI to the selected economies dropped only about 2 per cent. When the situation
recovered in 1998, the value of inward FDI with inflows to these economies grew about 6 per cent. Among
East Asian regions and developing economies, China and Hong Kong were major FDI recipients while
Singapore was another country that had a high proportion of FDI. In 2009, FDI inflows to East Asia
amounted to US$230 billion. One important factor of FDI flows to the region during the past few years has
been the increasing importance of China and India as host economies. With its inflows reaching
approximately US$108 billion in 2008, China became the third largest FDI recipient country in the world. In
India, leading transnational corporations (TNCs) in many manufacturing and service industries have sped up
their investment expansion. As a result, FDI flows to India increased, continuing the trend of the previous
two years.
As discussed briefly in the previous section, the impacts of FDI are different in economies which have
different initial or threshold conditions. We have divided our sample economies according to their threshold
in education (ratio of public expenditure on education to GDP), ratio of public investment to GDP
representing investment in infrastructure, financial development, corruption index, and trade openness. These
economies were categorized into three groups: (1) high-income economies including Hong Kong, Japan,
South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan; (2) middle-income economies including China, India, Indonesia,
Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand; and (3) low-income economies including Cambodia, Laos,
Myanmar, and Vietnam.
[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]
Table 2 shows selected indicators which describe the initial economic conditions of each group of economies
in East Asia during 1990-2009. The amount of public expenditure on education in high-income economies
and middle-income economies stayed around 3 per cent of GDP. This was twice the value of the same
expenditure in low-income economies. After the Asian financial crisis, the level of public investment was
highest in high-income economies, hovering around 17 per cent of GDP. This was followed by
middle-income economies, which had a ratio of public investment of around 15 per cent of GDP, while the
level of public investment in low-income economies was approximately 10 per cent of GDP. This value was
more than 30 per cent lower compared to the corresponding values in high-income and middle-income
economies. For the financial development index, after the Asian financial crisis, this figure stayed around 1.7
in high-income economies, which was about twice the value of the index in middle-income economies and
about eight times larger than in low-income economies. The Corruption Perceptions Index was highest in
high-income economies followed by middle-income economies and low-income economies, with a high
figure representing a low level of corruption. The level of trade openness in high-income economies was 191
per cent, which was approximately twice the value of the level in middle-income and low-income economies.
From Table 2, we can conclude that there are differences in the degrees of investment in education, public
investment in infrastructure, trade openness, financial market development, and corruption levels among
these three groups of economies. High-income economies seem to have the best threshold conditions because
they have the highest values in categories that are important to growth. This relationship between the
categories and rankings is present in the other two groups of economies, with the middle-income economies
having average values and the low-income economies having low values, respectively.
Table 3 shows that, with the exception of Japan, the economic growth rates of high-income countries have
been increasing since 1990, with average growth rates around 5-8 per cent. However, due to the Asian
financial crisis in 1997-98, the GDP growth rates of all high-income countries except for Taiwan became
negative in 1998. The countries that were most adversely affected were Hong Kong and Korea, but all
successfully recovered after the crisis and grew at an average rate of 5 per cent in 2001-05. During 2007 to
2009, the economic growth rates of high-income countries declined in response to the worsened global
economic conditions in the aftermath of the subprime crisis.
Amongst middle-income countries, China has the highest growth rate, followed by India. China's economic
growth rate, in particular, had been increasing since 1990 and the average growth rate was about l0 per cent.
For other middle-income economies, all suffered from negative growth rates due to the financial crisis in
1997. However, most economies quickly recovered from this and growth rates increased during 2001-05.
Growth slowed down during 2007-09 before rising again in 2010, as with other country groups.
The low-income countries did not experience the bust and boom cycle as was seen in the more developed
economies because all were transitional economies, which had just opened to the market economies in the
late 1980s. On average, they had comparatively low growth in the early 1990s. The growth increased slowly
in the late 1990s before benefiting from the open up after 2000, but slowed down again, much like the others
groups of countries after 2007.
To examine the relationship between FDI and economic growth, we compute the correlation between the
ratio of FDI/GDP and GDP growth. Figure 2 shows that although the relationships between FDI and GDP
growth were negative in some economies during the early period of huge capital inflows before the 1997
Asian crisis, almost all turned positive after the year 2000. We might postulate that there were some changes
in the initial threshold conditions after the crisis that enabled most countries to have an increased benefit from
the FDI.
Furthermore, although there are several potential ways for improved initial conditions to support a positive
role of FDI to economic growth, there are also many unanswered questions about how countries with
different economic conditions benefit from FDI. Therefore, an empirical analysis of this issue is needed for a
better understanding of the role of FDI, especially in East Asia since most economies are major FDI
recipients.
[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]
III. Literature on Impact of FDI on Growth
For empirical studies studying the impact of FDI on economic growth, most of them showed that FDI was
able to stimulate economic growth through the technology transfer and spillover effect (Wei et al. 2001;
Bende-Nabende and Ford 1998). FDI was seen as an important element in the solution to the problem of
scarce local capital and overall low productivity in many developing economies (De Mello 1999; Eller et al.
2005).
While some papers reported that FDI enhanced GDP growth, others reported that there was no direct
evidence of such a relationship. For example, Borenztein (1998) studied the impact of FDI on economic
growth of sixty-nine developing countries during 1970-89. He divided all countries into nine groups
according to the level of FDI and human capital and found that FDI promoted economic growth only in
countries with a high level of human capital. Bashir (1999) and Carkovic and Levine (2002) showed that
there was no impact from FDI to economic growth in seventy-two sample countries, some of which were
Asia economies, such as India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Some empirical studies
noted that FDI seemed to boost growth only in economies that had appropriate initial conditions, including
high levels of human capital, financial sector development and policies that promoted international trade.
In the view of threshold effects, Borensztein, De Gregorio, and Lee (1998), and Balasubramanyam (1999)
found that FDI had positive impact on economic growth when the country had a highly educated labour force
that could exploit the FDI spillovers. Balasubramanyam (1999) also found that good infrastructure facilities
will help FDI contribute more growth. Alfaro et al. (2004) found that FDI promotes economic growth where
financial markets are sufficiently developed. Blonigen and Wang (2005) showed that a sufficient level of
human capital was needed to get a positive growth impact from FDI. These findings show that a threshold of
development is needed for the host country to take advantage from the spillover effects of FDI. However,
there is empirical evidence suggesting that the threshold conditions are not important. For example, Carkovic
and Levine (2002) did not find evidence of education and financial market development interacting with FDI
to have an impact on the economic growth in seventy-two sample countries.
Table 4 provides a summary of literatures about FDI. Despite the theoretical presumption that GDP benefits
from FDI, it has not been easy to document these benefits. Furthermore, recent empirical research that take
more nuanced approaches by accounting for the role of various initial conditions (human capital, trade
openness) have been more successful in showing the potential links between FDI and growth.
According to empirical studies (Levin and Rant 1997; Zhang 2003). FDI can apply to growth models in two
ways, depending on different assumptions. FDI can be postulated to cause growth directly or alternatively,
hypothesized to affect growth through the spillover effects. In the case that we assume FDI will directly
cause growth, the capital stock in the Solow production function is assumed to consist of two components:
domestic and foreign owned capital stock [K.sub.t] = [Kd.sub.t] + [Kf.sub.t] and we will have:
[Y.sub.it] = [A.sub.it] x [L.sup.bl.sub.it] x [Kd.sup.b2.sub.it] x [Kf.sup.b3.sub.it] (1)
Where [Y.sub.it] is output, [Kd.sub.it] and [Kf.sub.it] represent the domestic and foreign owned capital
stocks, respectively, [L.sub.it] is the labour, Act is the level of productive efficiency, the so-called total factor
productivity, which explains the output growth that is not accounted for by the growth in factors of
production specified, subscript i = 1 ..... N stands for country i to country N, and subscript t = 1, ... T stands
for time period t, starting from 1 to T.
Nevertheless, if we alternatively specify that FDI affects growth through the spillover effects, the total factor
productivity variable A has to be endogenized as a function of FDI. An example can be found from the study
of Zang (2003), which applied the endogenous growth model to formulate that FDI affects the output growth
through enhancing the total factor productivity. The model is designed to have the following form.
[Y.sub.it] = [A.sub.it] x [L.sup.[alpha].sub.it] x [K.sup.[beta].sub.it] (2)
and ln([COR.sub.it])*ln([FDI.sub.it]) were then added to equation (7). Variables which affected growth
including inflation rate (Inf), and the dummy variable which captured the impact of financial crisis in 1997
(D97) were also added into the equation in order to get a better result. The final form of our equation for
estimation is equation (8).
ln([Y.sub.it]) = [b.sub.0i] + [b.sub.1] ln([L.sub.it]) + [b.sub.2] ln([K.sub.it]) + [b.sub.3] ln([FDI.sub.it]) +
[b.sub.4] ln([HK.sub.it]) + [b.sub.5] ln([IF.sub.it]) + [b.sub.6] In([TRADE.sub.it]) + [b.sub.7] ln([FD.sup.it])
+ [b.sub.8] ln([COR.sub.it]) + [b.sub.9] [Inf.sub.it] + [b.sub.810] [D97.sub.it] + [b.sub.11]
ln([HK.sub.it])*ln([FDI.sub.it]) + [b.sub.12] ln([IF.sub.it])*ln([FDI.sub.it]) + [b.sub.13]
ln([TRADE.sub.it])*ln([FDI.sub.it]) + [b.sub.14] ln([FD.sub.it])*ln([FDI.sub.it]) + [b.sub.l5]
ln([COR.sub.it])*ln([FDI.sub.it]) + [u.sub.it] (8)
In equation (8), Y denotes country's GDP (US$ million). L is the labour (thousand person), K is domestic
investment (US$ million), FDI is foreign direct investment (US$ million), HK is public expenditure on
education (US$ million), IF is public investment in infrastructure (US$ million), TRADE is trade openness
(per cent), FD is financial development index (M2/GDP), COR is Corruption Perceptions Index, Inf is
inflation rate (per cent), and D97 is the dummy variable for financial crisis in 1997 which is equal to 1 during
the 1997-98 period and is equal to zero otherwise. Subscript i stands for country i in each group of
economies; i = 1, ..., 5 in high income group of economies, i = 1, ..., 6 in middle income group of economies,
and i = 1,..., 4 in low income group of economies. Subscript t = 1990,..., 2009 stand for time period
1990-2009.
To study the relationship among time series variables, we used panel cointegration analysis to avoid the
spurious results which might occur when using ordinary regression with non-stationary variables. There were
three steps in panel cointegration analysis: firstly, the ADF panel unit root test was used to test whether the
variables used in this study were stationary or not, with the null hypothesis being that each variable was
non-stationary. If the variables were stationary, we could use panel regression to estimate equation. If the
variables were non-stationary, we had to use panel cointegration analysis. Secondly, if the variables were
non-stationary, we had to verify that all variables had long-run relationship by using panel cointegration test
based on single-equation Engle-Granger (1987) two-step procedure, with the null hypothesis of this test being
that all variables in the equation were not cointegrated. Finally, when all of the variables were identified as
cointegrated or had long-term relationship, we could estimate the long-run equation by using pooled
regression model and fixed effect model. In this study, we were not able to apply random effect model to
analyse the impact of FDI on economic growth because the number of variables in our model was greater
than the number of cross sections in the model. The number of variables in the model was fourteen, while the
number of cross-section in the model was five in the high income and middle income groups, and four in the
low income group; this did not match the conditions required for the random effect model. The estimation
procedure in this study is show in Figure 3.
Data for the period of 1990-2009 were collected from several official publication sources
such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, United Nation Conference on Trade and
Development (UNCTAD), and data from CEIC database.
[FIGURE 3 OMITTED]
Since the main hypothesis for our work is that FDI is an important factor for the economic growth, the
coefficient value of FDI ([b.sub.3]) in equation (8) should be positive and statistically significant. Moreover,
the coefficient value [b.sub.11] to [b.sub.15] should be positive and statistically significant to show that other
initial economic factors can support FDI in stimulating economic growth. According to growth theory, the
coefficient value of L ([b.sub.1) and K ([b.sub.2]) should be positive and statistically significant. The
coefficients of other variables except for inflation and dummy variable should also be positive and significant
(Edward 1997; Yanikkaya 2002; Balamurali and Bogahawatte 2004; Kose 2006; and Roy and Berg 2006).
V. Estimation Results
The results for determining stationary variables was achieved by considering ADF--Fisher Chi-square in
Appendix Table 1, and we were able to determine that most variables in the model except for labour,
inflation rate, and corruption perceptions index were non-stationary at the level form; however, they were
stationary at the first difference form. Although the variables used in this study were non-stationary at level
form, these variables had long-run relationship when linear combination among these variables (the residual
of the equation) was stationary.
Secondly, we use panel cointegration test based on single-equation Engle-Granger (1987) two-step procedure
to test whether there was long-run relationship between FDI and other variables. The results of panel
cointegration test are shown in Appendix Table 2. The column "Panel ADF statistics" show that FDI and
other macroeconomic variables were cointegrated. In other words, there was long run relationship among
FDI and other macroeconomic.
In the next step, we verified the relationship between FDI and economic growth by employing the causality
test based on Granger's (1969) definition of causality. The null hypothesis of this test was that FDI did not
cause GDP growth or vice versa. The results, in Appendix Table 3, show that, for high income economies,
there was causation from FDI to economic growth at 5 per cent level of significance in most economies
except for Korea and Japan. Although Japan invested in other economies in East Asia, there was very little
FDI inflow into Japan. For South Korea, GDP growth appeared to attract more FDI but not vice versa and the
value of FDI inflows was also very small. For middle-income economies, F-statistic values of this test
indicated causation from FDI to economic growth at 10 per cent level of significance for all economies. In
contrast, GDP growth seemed to attract more FDI only in China, India, and Thailand. In low-income
economies, F-statistic values indicated causation from FDI to economic growth for Laos and Vietnam but not
for Cambodia and Myanmar. However, GDP growth did not seem to attract more FDI for all economies in
low income group. Since Korea and Japan had a low level of FDI and the results of Granger's causality test
concluded that their FDI do not have any impact on their GDP, we will drop Japan and South Korea from the
high-income economy group.
Using annual data from 1990-2009, we had only nineteen observations for each country. We were not able to
estimate the growth equation for each country because there were not enough observations. Therefore, we
estimated our growth equation using pool regression and panel fixed effect model. The results of the growth
model using pool regression and fixed effect model in Table 5 shows that FDI had positive relationship at 5
per cent level of significance with economic growth in high-income and middle-income countries. However,
FDI did not have significant effect to economic growth in low -income countries. For other initial economic
factors which could support FDI in promoting economic growth (interaction terms between FDI and other
variables) in high-income economies, all factors except Corruption Perception Index turned out to be
significant. In middle-income economies, interaction term between FDI and trade openness, FDI and
financial development index, and FDI and Corruption Perception Index were statistically significant. In
low-income economies, only interaction term between FDI and trade openness was statistically significant.
From these results, we can conclude that FDI has positive relationship with economic growth in all groups of
countries except for countries with low incomes. However, we could not detect significant interactive effects
of FDI which contain initial conditions on growth of some groups of countries. We also could not verify that
the low corruption index could combine with FDI to promote economic growth in high-income economies.
Moreover, we were not able to detect that the public expenditure on education and government investment in
infrastructure could support FDI in promoting economic growth in middle-income economies. Finally, we
could not ascertain that the public expenditure on education, government investment in infrastructure, degree
of financial market development and level of corruption could support FDI in promoting economic growth in
low-income economies. For other variables, the coefficient of labour, domestic investment, and public
expenditure on education had positive relationship at 5 per cent level of significance with economic growth
in all groups of economies. The signs of the coefficients of trade openness, financial development, corruption
index, inflation rate, and dummy variable followed the hypothesis and all are significant at 5 per cent level of
significance except for low-income group. The government investment on infrastructure had positive
relationship at 5 per cent level of significance with economic growth except for middle-income countries.
The above unsatisfactory findings might stem from the fact that the observations of some initial threshold
condition variables such as the education and corruption index variables had little variation within the same
group of countries. Therefore, we re-estimated our model by pooling the observations of all thirteen countries
in all time periods in order to find the overall effects of FDI on growth in East Asia.
The estimation results for overall economies (last column in Table 5) shows that FDI has positive
relationship to GDP growth. The coefficient in front of public expenditure on education, government
investment on infrastructure, trade openness, financial development index, and Corruption Perception Index
and their interaction terms with FDI in the equation are all positive and statistically significant. It means that,
in general, economies in East Asia which have high level of public expenditure on education, government
investment on infrastructure, trade openness, financial development, and low level of corruption will receive
more benefits from FDI in supporting GDP growth.
To summarize our study, we divided sample countries into three country groups. The results from pooled
regression and fixed effect model in high-income and middle-income countries were quite similar. FDI has
positive relationship with economic growth for high-income and middle-income countries but not for
low-income countries. For the initial economic factors, we could not detect any relationship between
economic growth and some of these factors when we divided sample countries into three groups. For
example, the coefficient of Corruption Perception Index and its interaction term between FDI were
statistically insignificant except in middle-income economies. This meant that we were not able to detect that
the level of corruption can support FDI in promoting economic growth in high-income and low-income
economies. It might be because Corruption Perception Index in high-income and low-income economies
remain quite constant and do not have enough variation in the estimating equation. Also, other economic
factors such as expenditure on education, government investment on infrastructure, and financial
development did not have enough variation, especially for low-income economies. However, when we
estimated our equation using the combined observations of all thirteen economies, we discovered that FDI
has a positive relation to GDP growth for the whole region. All of the initial economic factors and their
interaction terms between FDI are statistically significant. For example, the coefficient of Corruption
Perception Index and its interaction term between FDI are positive and statistically significant when we
estimate using thirteen economies. This means that for overall economies, economies which have a high
value of Corruption Perception Index (low level of corruption) will obtain more benefits from FDI and get
more GDP growth. The relationships between FDI and expenditure on education, government investment on
infrastructure, financial development, and trade openness are also positive and significant. It means that if we
can improve these additional supporting economic factors, host economies will obtain much greater benefits
from FDI than without the improvement.
According to our study, we conclude that FDI has a positive relationship with economic growth in East Asian
economies which have more appropriate initial economic condition. Economies which have more appropriate
initial economic condition also receive more benefits from FDI in supporting GDP growth. In high-income
countries, they have high level of all economic conditions to absorb more benefits of FDI. In middle-income
countries, degree of trade openness and financial development are high enough to absorb more benefits of
FDI. In low-income countries, even though trade does interact with FDI to have a positive impact on growth
to a certain extent, they do not have appropriate facilities from government investment and still have low
level of human capital development to support a greater growth. Therefore, low-income countries are unable
to absorb as much collateral benefit from FDI as they potentially can, unless they put an effort to improve
their threshold conditions.
VI. Conclusion and Policy Implications
The results show that FDI has a positive relationship with economic growth in high-income and
middle-income countries. These countries have appropriate economic factors such as high education level,
high government expenditure on investment in infrastructure, high level of financial development, and high
degree in trade openness. Moreover, the high-income countries which have high level of education,
government investment, trade openness, financial development, and low-level of corruption will benefit more
than middle-income countries which have high level of financial development and trade openness, but still
have corruption, and do not have enough education level and government investment. Low income
economies tend to benefit less from FDI. This may be because the low-income countries do not have
appropriate facilities from government investment. They also have low degree of trade openness, low level of
public investment on education, low level of financial development, and high level of corruption. Therefore,
the low-income economies are not capable of absorbing the benefit of FDI as the channel of technological
diffusion from developed countries. Our results support Kose et al. (2006) that appropriate economic
conditions play important roles in supporting FDI to stimulate economic growth.
Our results confirm the hypothesis that FDI can promote more economic development in countries which
have more appropriate factors such as high level of human capital, infrastructure, financial development,
large degree of trade openness, and low level of corruption. High-income economies already have
appropriate values in all factors to get largest benefits from FDI. For the middle-income economies, they
need to invest more in education and infrastructure, and decrease their level of corruption. For low-income
economies, they also need to conduct policies that allow them to invest more in education and infrastructures,
decrease their level of corruption, and make policies that help their financial market more develop. In
Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar, they also need to carry out policies that promote more trade in order to get
greater benefits from FDI.
APPENDIX
Appendix Table 1
Panel Unit Root Test for Stationary, Null Hypothesis: Non-Stationary
ADF--Fisher Chi-square
Level Form
GDP (million US$)
labour (thousand person)
public expenditure on education
(million US$)
government investment (million US$)
trade openness (%)
Inflation (%)
domestic investment (million US$)
FDI (million US$)
Financial Development Index
Corruption Perception Index
11.47
58.11 **
8.86
45.19 **
24.87
20.85
55.71 **
22.83
21.98
34.55
56.05 **
75.63 **
102.40 **
45.28 **
52.48 **
79.16 **
64.75 **
Appendix Table 2
Panel Cointegration Test, Null Hypothesis: Not Cointegrated
Country Groups
All ecomomies
High income economies
Middle income economies
Low income economies
-7.65
-6.01
-3.28
-4.25
**
**
**
**
NOTES:
* indicate significant at 90 per cent level of significant.
** indicate significant at 95 per cent level of significant.
Appendix Table 3
Granger's Causality Test
F-Statistic
[H.sub.0]: FDI
does not cause
GDP Growth
Cambodia
China
Hong Kong
India
1.13
7.19 **
7.89 **
3.75 *
[H.sub.0]: GDP
Growth does
not cause FDI
0.94
7.75 **
3.54 *
2.63
Indonesia
Japan
Korea
Lao
Malaysia
Myanmar
Philippines
Singapore
Taiwan
Thailand
Vietnam
2.93
0.28
1.09
5.61
2.83
2.04
2.89
4.01
6.84
3.23
4.78
**
*
*
**
**
*
**
0.45
1.50
3.58 *
2.78
0.80
0.82
1.09
0.16
0.30
3.30 *
0.63
NOTES:
* indicate significant at 90 per cent level of significant.
** indicate significant at 95 per cent level of significant.
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DOI: 10.1355/ae28-2e
TABLE 1
FDI Inflows in South, East and Southeast Asia, 1990-2009
(In US$ billion)
Cambodia
China
Hong Kong
India
Indonesia
Japan
Korea
Laos
Malaysia
Myanmar
Philippines
Singapore
Taiwan
Thailand
Vietnam
Cambodia
China
Hong Kong
India
1990-1995
1996-2000
2001-2005
2006
2007
307
117,663
29,154
4,221
13,057
6,986
5,071
204
27,929
1,154
6,170
37,438
7,331
12,021
5,680
1,080
213,479
123,109
14,533
23,608
27,710
28,612
345
24,017
2,655
8,008
63,811
12,188
23,213
8,863
891
286,161
114,771
28,828
18,785
32,398
27,921
113
14,918
1,161
4,770
69,916
9,530
27,576
7,581
483
72,715
45,060
20,328
4,247
6,507
4,881
187
6,060
428
2,921
29,056
7,424
9,517
2,400
867
83,521
54,341
25,001
4,365
22,550
2,628
324
8,538
258
2,916
35,778
7,769
11,355
6,739
2008
2009
815
108,312
59,621
40,418
533
95,000
48,449
34,613
Indonesia
Japan
Korea
Laos
Malaysia
Myanmar
Philippines
Singapore
Taiwan
Thailand
Vietnam
4,483
24,426
8,409
228
7,318
283
1,544
10,912
5,432
8,544
8,050
4,601
11,939
5,844
157
1,381
323
1,948
16,809
2,803
5,949
4,500
1998-99
2000-09
6.0
1.5
3.6
20.3
19.7
23.6
3.4
5.8
7.4
3.5
3.7
3.7
14.9
16.5
17.7
Financial Development
Index (M2/GDP)
1.2
1.5
1.7
6.4
6.9
7.1
151.4
152.3
191.4
Middle Income
1990-97
1998-99
2000-09
7.1
1.0
6.0
2.0
1.6
1.9
2.6
2.7
1.9
2.2
2.6
2.8
11.2
14.0
15.0
Financial Development
Index (M2/GDP)
0.6
0.8
0.9
3.0
3.2
3.5
82.2
105.3
111.7
Low Income
1990-97
1998-99
2000-09
6.4
6.6
8.1
0.3
0.3
0.3
4.7
5.2
3.7
1.1
1.6
1.9
8.7
9.3
10.5
Financial Development
Index (M2/GDP)
0.2
0.2
0.3
2.1
2.1
2.1
46.5
70.5
85.1
TABLE 3
GDP Growth of East Asian Economies
1990-95
High Income
Hong Kong
Japan
Korea
Singapore
Taiwan
Middle Income
China
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
Low income
Cambodia
Laos
Myanmar
Vietnam
High Income
Hong Kong
Japan
Korea
Singapore
Taiwan
Middle Income
China
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
Low income
Cambodia
1996-2000
2001-05
2006
2007
2008
5.0
2.1
8.1
8.9
7.2
2.7
1.0
5.4
6.4
5.2
4.2
1.3
4.5
4.5
3.6
7.0
2.0
5.2
8.7
5.4
6.4
2.4
5.1
8.2
6.0
2.1
-1.2
2.3
1.4
0.7
10.9
5.1
7.2
9.4
2.3
9.0
8.6
6.2
1.1
5.0
4.0
0.6
9.6
6.5
4.7
4.8
4.5
5.1
11.6
9.8
5.5
5.8
5.3
5.1
13.0
9.4
6.3
6.2
7.1
4.9
9.6
7.3
6.0
4.6
3.8
2.5
5.7
6.5
5.3
7.7
7.3
5.7
8.5
7.0
9.4
6.3
12.9
7.5
10.8
8.6
13.1
8.2
10.2
7.8
11.9
8.5
6.7
7.8
3.6
6.2
2009
2010
-2.7
-5.2
0.2
-1.3
-1.9
6.0
2.8
6.1
15.0
9.3
9.1
5.7
4.5
-1.7
1.7
-2.3
10.5
9.7
6.0
6.7
7.0
7.5
-2.0
4.7
Laos
Myanmar
Vietnam
7.6
4.9
5.3
7.7
5.3
6.5
SOURCE: IMF.
TABLE 4
Empirical Studies of Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic
Growth
Study
Time Period
No. of
Economies
Methodology
Balasubramanyam
and Sapsford
(1999)
1970-1985
46
Cross-section OLS
1965-1984
30
Panel regression
Borensztein and
Lee (1998)
1970-1989
69
Panel regression
De Mello (1999)
1970-1990
31
VARs, Cointegration,
Panel regression
(Pool, FE)
Haveman, Lei,
and Netz (2001)
1970-1989
74
Panel regression
(FE)
Carkovic and
Levine (2002)
1960-1995
72
Lensink and
Momsey (2002)
1970-1998
88
Panel regression
(FE)
Hennes and
Lensink (2003)
1970-1995
67
Panel regression
(Pool, FE, RE)
Zhang (2003)
1978-2002
Alfaro, Chanda,
Kalemli-Ozcan
and Sayek (2004)
1975-1995
71
Cross-section OLS
1990-2002
37
Cross-section OLS
Blonigen and
Wang (2005)
1970-1989
69
Panel regression
(Pool, RE)
Adeolu (2007)
1970-2002
Study
China
Nigeria
Panel GMM
Panel regression
OLS regression
Findings
Balasubramanyam
and Sapsford
(1999)
Borensztein and
Lee (1998)
De Mello (1999)
Haveman, Lei,
and Netz (2001)
Carkovic and
Levine (2002)
Lensink and
Momsey (2002)
Hennes and
Lensink (2003)
Zhang (2003)
Alfaro, Chanda,
Kalemli-Ozcan
and Sayek (2004)
Blonigen and
Wang (2005)
Adeolu (2007)
TABLE 5
Estimation of Impacts of FDI and Complementary Factors on Growth in
East Asia by Group
High income
Pool
Fixed Effect
LOG(labour)
0.16
(1.10)
0.26
(2.29)
LOG(domestic investment)
0.23
(3.18)
0.39
(3.26)
LOG(FDI)
1.60
(3.45)
1.50
(3.47)
4.24
(3.07)
3.44
(5.97)
0.57
0.42
LOG(government investment)
(2.31)
(2.57)
LOG(trade openness)
0.71
(3.22)
0.52
(3.73)
LOG(Financial development)
0.16
(3.77)
0.36
(4.32)
0.68
(3.44)
0.41
(3.68)
inflation rate
-0.17
(-2.49)
-0.29
(-2.00)
dummy 97
-0.09
(-2.46)
-0.10
(-2.50)
0.90
(2.65)
0.92
(3.01)
0.64
(2.28)
0.50
(2.57)
LOG(FDI)*LOG(trade openness)
1.81
(3.24)
2.10
(2.82)
LOG(FDI)*LOG(Financial development)
0.34
(3.20)
0.30
(3.47)
1.61
(1.71)
1.57
(1.58)
Number of observations
54
54
Adjusted R-squared
0.96
0.97
Durbin-Watson
1.33
1.61
Middle income
Pool
Fixed Effect
LOG(labour)
0.24
(12.41)
0.85
(6.74)
LOG(domestic investment)
0.28
(11.37)
0.25
(11.94)
LOG(FDI)
0.15
(3.36)
0.39
(4.80)
0.90
(4.74)
0.38
(3.78)
LOG(government investment)
0.26
(1.32)
0.18
(1.28)
LOG(trade openness)
0.73
(3.30)
0.75
(3.92)
LOG(Financial development)
0.06
(2.16)
0.93
(2.90)
0.44
(3.88)
0.32
(3.57)
inflation rate
-0.21
(-2.06)
-0.18
(-2.61)
dummy 97
-0.69
(-2.44)
-0.40
(-2.10)
0.38
(1.78)
0.71
(1.47)
0.33
(1.42)
0.32
(1.93)
LOG(FDI)*LOG(trade openness)
7.61
(3.21)
7.59
(3.50)
LOG(FDI)*LOG(Financial development)
1.36
(2.89)
1.24
(3.51)
0.60
(4.20)
0.44
(3.27)
Number of observations
90
90
Adjusted R-squared
0.94
0.96
Durbin-Watson
0.97
1.11
Low income
Pool
Fixed Effect
LOG(labour)
1.30
(8.86)
1.73
(3.40)
LOG(domestic investment)
0.14
(2.34)
0.16
(3.16)
LOG(FDI)
0.56
(0.98)
0.37
(0.83)
0.10
(2.51)
0.58
(2.34)
LOG(government investment)
0.69
(2.56)
0.45
(2.07)
LOG(trade openness)
0.28
(1.71)
0.10
(1.41)
LOG(Financial development)
2.82
(1.14)
2.63
(1.23)
0.19
(1.27)
0.15
(1.38)
inflation rate
-0.40
(-0.86)
-0.14
(-0.36)
dummy 97
-0.46
(-1.14)
-0.48
(-0.97)
0.85
(0.64)
0.71
(0.51)
0.17
0.17
(1.24)
(1.76)
LOG(FDI)*LOG(trade openness)
0.87
(2.53)
0.59
(2.24)
LOG(FDI)*LOG(Financial development)
0.35
(1.49)
0.31
(1.84)
0.55
(1.66)
0.48
(1.62)
Number of observations
64
64
Adjusted R-squared
0.92
0.94
Durbin-Watson
1.15
1.11
All economies
Pool
Fixed Effect
LOG(labour)
0.18
(6.91)
0.12
(4.57)
LOG(domestic investment)
0.25
(5.60)
0.11
(4.46)
LOG(FDI)
0.46
(7.78)
0.59
(9.15)
0.40
(2.00)
0.41
(2.33)
LOG(government investment)
0.59
(2.86)
0.27
(4.60)
LOG(trade openness)
0.34
(3.23)
0.15
(4.81)
LOG(Financial development)
0.36
(5.56)
0.23
(3.31)
0.50
(6.95)
0.14
(8.11)
inflation rate
-0.53
(-5.59)
-0.14
(-2.07)
dummy 97
-0.18
(-8.46)
-0.21
(-9.20)
0.41
(9.36)
0.12
(5.65)
0.48
(8.60)
0.86
(3.63)
LOG(FDI)*LOG(trade openness)
0.54
(3.64)
0.18
(3.77)
LOG(FDI)*LOG(Financial development)
0.45
(7.72)
0.30
(7.31)
0.14
(7.35)
0.15
(8.31)
Number of observations
Adjusted R-squared
Durbin-Watson
224
0.92
17.1
224
0.92
1.98