Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 3

NBC News|SurveyMonkey Third Debate Reaction Poll

Embargoed for release Friday, October 21, 2016 at 12PM ET


The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Third Debate Reaction Poll was conducted online on October 20, 2016 immediately following the
third presidential debate among a national sample of 6,538 likely voters (+/- 1.9%), 3,168 likely Republican voters (+/-2.9%) and
2,627 likely Democratic voters (+/-2.8%). Complete error estimates can be found in the methodology section below.

TOPLINE RESULTS
Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?

10/20
10/10
9/26 - 9/27

Foreign
Policy
4
6
4

The
environment
8
9
8

Terrorism
15
16
18

Immigration
10
8
7

Health
care
16
15
13

Jobs and the


Economy
33
34
36

Education
9
8
9

No
answer
1

Other
5
5
5

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
10/20
10/10
9/26 - 9/27

Strongly approve
31
31
32

Somewhat approve
20
22
19

Somewhat disapprove
10
10
12

Strongly disapprove
39
37
36

No answer
1
1

In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?


10/20
10/10
9/26 - 9/27

Republican
30
29
31

Democrat
33
35
36

Independent
35
35
33

No answer
1
1
1

As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? [AMONG IND OR DONT KNOW FOR
PARTY]
10/20
10/10
9/26 - 9/27

Republican
Party
39
35
36

Democratic
Party
31
31
30

Neither
27
31
31

No answer
3
3
3

What are the chances that you will vote in the general election for President in November?

10/20
10/10

Already voted
9
4

Absolutely
certain I will
vote
79
82

Large chance
I will vote
6
8

50-50 chance I
will vote

Small chance I
will vote

3
3

1
2

I will not vote


1
1

No answer
1
1

th

Did you happen to watch the debate between the candidates for president that was held on Wednesday, October 19 or not?

Yes, I watched the debate

I did not watch the debate but


followed coverage in the news

I did not watch the debate


and havent followed
coverage in the news

10/20

69

22

No answer
1

10/10

69

24

9/26 - 9/27

74

18

From what you have heard and read, who do you think won or did the best job in the debate? [AMONG THOSE WHO WATCHED
OR FOLLOWED COVERAGE]

Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump

10/20

46

37

Neither of them
17

No answer
1

10/10

44

34

21

9/26 - 9/27

52

21

26

After Wednesday nights presidential debate, has your opinion of Hillary Clinton changed for the better, worse, or not changed?
[AMONG THOSE WHO WATCHED OR FOLLOWED COVERAGE]

10/20
10/10
9/26 - 9/27

Changed for the better


22
17
26

Changed for the


worse
31
23
17

Not changed
47
59
56

No answer
1
1
1

After Wednesday nights presidential debate, has your opinion of Donald Trump changed for the better, worse, or not changed?
[AMONG THOSE WHO WATCHED OR FOLLOWED COVERAGE]

10/20
10/10
9/26 - 9/27

Changed for the better


24
23
13

Changed for the


worse
28
29
26

Not changed
48
48
60

No answer
1
1
1

If your preferred presidential candidate ends up losing, would you accept the election as legitimate?

10/20

Yes, definitely
40

Probably
28

Unlikely
18

Definitely not
13

No answer
2

METHODOLOGY
NBC News|SurveyMonkey Third Debate Reaction Poll was conducted online on October 20, 2016 immediately following the debate among a
national sample of 6,538 adults aged 18 and over who are likely to vote. Respondents for this survey were selected from the nearly three million
people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data for this week has been weighted for age, race, sex, education, region, and
voter registration status using the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey to reflect the demographic composition
of the United States. An additional smoothing parameter for ideology based on previous Election Tracking interviews is included. The smoothing
parameter was derived from aggregated data on ideology by region collected from previous weeks (May 1-June 26) of the Weekly Election Tracking
poll.
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error
can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and
measurement error.
To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate.
The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey is plus or minus 1.9 percentage point for likely voters.
To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence
intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in
much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error.
Group

Unweighted
N
6,538

Plus or
minus
1.9

Republican LVs
Democrat LVs
Independent LVs

3,168
2,627
665

2.9
2.8
6.1

Male LVs
Female LVs

3,328
3,210

2.4
2.6

18-24 LVs
25-34 LVs
35-44 LVs
45-54 LVs
55-64 LVs
65+ LVs

346
681
885
1,466
1,718
1,442

8.1
5.6
4.9
4.1
3.9
4.0

White LVs
Black LVs
Hispanic LVs
Other LVs

5,240
458
300
540

2.1
6.4
8.6
7.4

Watched or Followed Debate LVs

5,976

2.0

Republican Watched or Followed Debate LVs


Democrat Watched or Followed Debate LVs
Independent Watched or Followed Debate LVs

2,908
2,468
532

3.0
2.9
6.9

Total LVs