Probability and Statistics for Engineers

22092 - GENG 200

Tutorial #3 Chapter 4

GENG 200: Tutorial #3 Chapter 4

Contents
Exersise 1 (problem
(a) . . . . . . . . .
(b) . . . . . . . . .
(c) . . . . . . . . .
(d) . . . . . . . . .
(e) . . . . . . . . .

4-8)
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3
3
3
3
3
4

Exersise 2
(1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
(2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5
5
5

Exersise 3
(1) . . .
(2) . . .
(3) . . .
(4) . . .
(5) . . .

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6
6
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6

Exersise 4
(1) . . .
(2) . . .
(3) . . .
(4) . . .
(5) . . .

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7
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8

Exersise 5
(1) . . .
(2) . . .
(3) . . .
(4) . . .
(5) . . .

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Page 2 of 11

GENG 200: Tutorial #3 Chapter 4

Exersise 1 (problem 4-8)

Exersise 1 (problem 4-8)

The probability density functions of the time to failure of an electric component in a copier (in hours) is
f (x) = ex/1000 /1000 for x > 0. Determine the probability that:

(a)
A component lasts more than 3000 hours before failure.
Solution:
R
P (X > 3000) = 3000

ex/1000
1000 dx


= ex/1000 3000 = 0 (e3000/1000 ) = e3 = 0.04979

(b)
A component fails in the interval from 1000 to 2000 hours.
Solution:
R 2000
P (1000 < X < 2000) = 1000
0.2325

ex/1000
1000 dx

2000
= ex/1000 1000 = (e2000/1000 )(e1000/1000 ) = e1 e2 =

(c)
A component fails before 1000 hours.
Solution:
R 1000
P (X < 1000) = 0

ex/1000
1000 dx

1000
= ex/1000 0
= e0 e1 = 0.6321

(d)
Determine the number of of hours at which 10% of all components will fail
Solution:
x
R x et/1000
P (X < x) = 0.1
et/1000 0 = 0.1
1000 dt = 0.1
0
ex/1000 (e0/1000 ) = 0.1 1 ex/1000 = 0.1
ex/1000 = 1 0.1 x/1000 = ln 0.9
x = 1000 (ln 0.9) = 105.36 hours

Exersise 1 (problem 4-8) continued on next page. . .

Page 3 of 11

GENG 200: Tutorial #3 Chapter 4

Exersise 1 (problem 4-8)

(e)
Find the cumulative distribution function of X and use it to answer question (a d)
Solution:
Rx
Rx
P (X < x) = F (x) = 0 f (t)dt = 0

et/1000
1000 dt

x
= et/1000 0 = (ex/1000 ) (e0/1000 ) = 1 ex/1000

(a) the probability that the component will last more than 3000 hours can be expressed as
P (X > 3000) = 1 P (x < 3000) = 1 (1 e3000/1000 ) = e3000/1000 = 0.04979
(b) a component fails in the interval from 1000 to 2000 hours.
P (1000 < X < 2000) = P (X < 2000) P (X < 1000) = (1 e2000/1000 ) (1 e1000/1000 ) = e1 e2 =
0.2325
(c) a component fails before 1000 hours.
P (X < 1000) = 1 e1000/1000 = 1 e1 = 0.6321
(d) determine the number of of hours at which 10% of all components will fail
P (X < x) = 0.1 1 ex/1000 = 0.1 ex/1000 = 1 0.1 x/1000 = ln 0.9
x = 1000 (ln 0.9) = 105.36 hours

Page 4 of 11

GENG 200: Tutorial #3 Chapter 4

Exersise 2

Exersise 2
A movie theater scheduled three sessions for a movie at: 5:00pm, 7:00pm and 9:00pm.
Once the movie starts, the gate will be closed. A visitor will arrive at the movie theater at a time uniformly
distributed between 4:00pm and 9:00pm. (i.e., t U [4 : 00pm, 9 : 00pm])

(1)
Determine the cumulative distribution function of the arrival time in minutes (Hint: set 4:00 pm =0 min)
Solution:

x<0
x<0
0,
0,
Rx 1
x
=
F (x) =
dt
0
<
x
<
300
0
<
x
<
300
300
0 300
1,
x > 300
1,
x > 300

(2)
Use the cumulative distribution function to determine the following:
(a) The probability that the visitor attends at least one movie session
Solution:
The probability to attend at least one show is 1 because the arrival time is between 4pm and 9pm and the
shows are at 5pm, 7pm and 9pm. That is the probability to arrive after 9pm and to miss all the shows is
equal to 0.
The probability could be lower if arrival time is distributed between 4pm and 10pm, for example.
In this case, if a visitor comes between 9pm and 10pm (with probability 1/6) he will miss all the shows.
(b) The probability that the visitor waits more than 20min for a movie session
Solution:
P (waiting > 20min) = P (0 < x < 40) + P (60 < x < 160) + P (180 < x < 280)
= 40/300 + (160/300 60/300) + (280/300 180/300) = 240/300 = 4/5
(c) The probability that the visitor waits less than 10min for a movie session
Solution:
P (waiting < 10min) = P (50 < x < 60) + P (170 < x < 180) + P (290 < x < 300)
= 10/300 + 10/300 + 10/300 = 30/300 = 1/10
(d) The probability that the visitor attends the second show knowing that he missed the first show.
Solution:
P (attendssecond|missedf irst) =

P (60<x<180)
P (x>60)

120/300
240/300

= 1/2

Page 5 of 11

GENG 200: Tutorial #3 Chapter 4

Exersise 3

Exersise 3
Just like any light bulb, projector bulbs have an expected operating time, called lamp life. This value is
expressed in hours and represents the number of hours before the lamp loses its brightness. The life of
projectors lamp is normally distributed with a mean of 2000 hours and a standard deviation of 200 hours.

(1)
What is the expected life of projector bulbs?
Solution:
Expected lifetime is equal to mean = 2000

(2)
What is the probability that a projector fails before 1800 hours?
Solution:
This is the probability that the lifetime is less than 1800 P (X < 1800) = P
P (Z < 1) = 0.1587

X2000
200

<

18002000
200

(3)
What is the probability that the projector fails between 1900 and 2100 hours?
Solution:
P (1900 < X < 2100) = P

19002000
200

<

X2000
200

<

21002000
200

= P (0.5 < Z < 0.5) = 0.3829

(4)
What is the probability that a projector will fail at least after operating 2400 hours?
Solution:
This means that the projector will work at least 2400 hours, or in other words more than 2400 hours


> 24002000
= P (Z > 2) = 1 P (Z < 2) = 0.02275
P (X > 2400) = P X2000
200
200

(5)
Whats is the number of hours before which the project will fail with a probability of 67%?
Solution:
We need to find such x that P (X < x) = 0.67




P X2000
< x2000
= P Z < x2000
= 0.67
200
200
200
Find from tables z such that P (Z < z) = 0.67,
x2000
= z = 0.4399
200
x = 2000 + 200 0.4399

z = 0.4399

Page 6 of 11

GENG 200: Tutorial #3 Chapter 4

Exersise 4

Exersise 4
The number of calls (X) that arrive at a hotel reception is modeled as a Poisson distribution with an average
of 6 calls per hour ( = 6 calls/hour = 0.1 calls/min ).

(1)
What is the probability that there are exactly 5 calls in one hour?
Solution:
Probability to have exactly 5 calls in one hours is equal to:
5
6 5
P (X = 5) = e 5! = e 5!6 = 0.1606

(2)
What is the probability that there are exactly 4 calls in 2 hours?
Solution:
To find this probability we have to use = 2 6 = 12
Then the probability to have 4 call will be:
12
4
P (X = 4) = e 4!12 = 0.0053
Now, we are interested in the time between calls. Let t (in minutes) be the random variable representing
the time between calls.

(3)
What is the distribution (type and parameters) of t and what is the mean time between calls (expected value
of t).
Solution:
The time between calls (in minutes) is exponentially distributed with parameter = 6/60 = 0.1 (mean
the number of calls per minute).
The mean time between calls is equal to 1/ = 10 min.

(4)
What is the probability that the first call arrives to the reception within 20 min of interval?
Solution:
This is equal to probability that the time untill the first call is less than 20 min.
P (X < 20) = 1 e20 = 1 e0.120 = 0.8647

Exersise 4 continued on next page. . .

Page 7 of 11

GENG 200: Tutorial #3 Chapter 4

Exersise 4

(5)
5-a) Use the conditional probability rule to calculate the probability that the reception receive a call in the
next 30 min, giving that the reception has not had a call in the first 10 min?
Solution:
This conditional probability can be computed as follows:
30
)(1e10 )
P (X < 30|X > 10) = P (10<X<30)
= (1e 1(1e
=
10 )
P (X>10)
0.120
=1e
= 0.8647

e10 e30
e10

= 1 e20 =

5-b) Compare and comment on the results in question (5-a) and (4).
Solution:
We get the same result as in 5-a due ti the memoryless property of the exponential distribution

Page 8 of 11

GENG 200: Tutorial #3 Chapter 4

Exersise 5

Exersise 5
Chickens at a farm are processed when they are 20 weeks old. The distribution of their weights is normal
with mean 1.7 kg, and standard deviation 0.250kg. The farm has created three categories for these chickens
according to their weight: Petite (weight less than 1.5 kg), Standard (weight between 1.5kg and 2.2kg), and
Big (weight above 2.2kg).

(1)
1-a) What proportion of these chickens will be in each category?
Solution:
Proportion for category Petite can be computed as:


P (X < 1.5) = P z < 1.51.7
= P (z < 0.8) = 0.2119
0.25
Proportion for category Standard can be computed as:


2.21.7
= P (0.8 < z < 2) = P (z < 2) P (z < 0.8) = 0.7654
P (1.5 < X < 2.2) = P 1.51.7
0.25 < z < 0.25
Proportion for category Big can be computed as:


P (X > 2.2) = P z > 2.21.7
= P (z > 2) = 1 P (z < 2) = 0.02275
0.25
1-b) Draw a normal distribution graph and show these proportions in different colors.
Solution:

1.5
Standard
1.0

Petit
Big

0.5
0.0
0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

(2)
What weight level (L in kg) is exceeded by 60% of the population?
Solution:
Find such L that


P (X > L) = 0.6 P Z > L1.7
= 0.6
0.25


P Z < L1.7
=
1

0.6
0.25

1P Z <

L1.7
0.25

= 0.6

Find z from tables z = 0.2533

L1.7
0.25 = z = 0.2533
L = 1.7 0.25 0.2533 = 1.6367

Exersise 5 continued on next page. . .

Page 9 of 11

GENG 200: Tutorial #3 Chapter 4

Exersise 5 (continued)

(3)
Let a and b, (a < b) be two weight values symmetric around the mean (1.7 kg), (i.e., the mean is at the
center of the interval [a, b]), find the values of a and b between which lies 90% of the population.
Solution:
Since a and b are symmetric around mean we can express them as a = and b = + and we need
to find that such that
P (1.7 < X < 1.7 + ) = 0.9
Byapplying standardization we get:

P (1.7)1.7
< Z < (1.7+)1.7
= 0.9
0.25
0.25

P 0.25
<Z<

0.25

= 0.9

This means that we need to find such z that P (z < Z < z) = P (Z < z) P (Z < z) = 0.9
Since Normal distribution is symmetric we have that P (Z < z) = 1 P (Z < z), which in combination
with previous result gives us:
P (Z < z) (1 P (Z < z)) = 0.9
2P (Z < z) = 1 + 0.9 P (Z < z) = (1 + 0.9)/2
That is we need to find such z that P (Z < z) = 0.95
Find z from tables z = 1.6449

= z = 1.6449
0.25
= 0.25 1.6449 = 0.4112
a = 1.7 0.4112 = 1.2888 and b = 1.7 + 0.4112 = 2.1112

(4)
Assume that the mean weight of chickens can be adjusted easily, but the standard deviation remains the
same (0.250 kg), at what value the mean should be set so that only 10% of the chickens are Petite.
Solution:
In this case we need to find such mean () that P (X < 1.5) = 0.1
That in our standardization it becomes:


P (X < 1.5) = P z < 1.5
= 0.1
0.25
Again we need to find such z that P (Z < z) = 0.1
Find z from tables z = 1.2816
1.5
0.25 = z = 1.2816
= 1.5 + 0.25 1.2816 = 1.8204

Exersise 5 continued on next page. . .

Page 10 of 11

GENG 200: Tutorial #3 Chapter 4

Exersise 5

(5)
Suppose that 4 chickens are selected at random. What is the probability that one of them will be petite?
Solution:
Probability that a chicken is Petit is equal to 0.2119 (see 1-a).
Probability that one out of 4 chickens is Petit can be computed using binomial distribution with n = 4
and p = 0.2119
4!
P (X = 1) = 1!3!
0.2119 (1 0.2119)3 = 0.4149

Page 11 of 11