Stop, Drop, & Roll-Off

The Challenge of Voting in Local Elections

A white paper by Nick Troiano, Dane Sherrets, and Chris Walsh

made possible by the support of Change Politics.

Turn Out for What?

If 80% of your colleagues thought your performance was so poor that you should be fired, youd
probably expect a pink slip rather than a contract renewal. Not so, apparently, if you are a County
Judge in Colorado.
In 2014, Judge Valerie Haynes of Pueblo County received a failing grade by a neutral panel of experts
known as the Colorado Office of Judicial Performance Evaluation. In a rare and blistering report, based
on surveys completed by dozens of various courtroom stakeholders, the panel wrote:
Judge Haynes imposes requirements upon the attorneys practicing in front of her that have
no basis in rule or law...Judge Haynes is not willing to work with others in order to resolve
issues and has created a hostile environment in her courtroom...She is described as rude, curt,
having little compassion, and inappropriately raising her voice at those who appear in her
courtroom.1
The panel unanimously recommended that Judge Haynes not be retained for another four-year term,
which comes with a six-figure salary paid for by Colorado taxpayers. Although originally appointed by
the governor, Judge Haynes ultimate fate rested with the voters.
On Election Day, nearly two thirds (66%) of registered voters turned out to vote in Pueblo County,
contributing to a statewide participation rate that ranked the third highest in the country for the
midterm elections.2 It was seemingly good news for those who care about voter participation in
elections. Yet, at the same time, 14% of Pueblo voters abstained from voting on Judge Hayes, and of
those who did, 62% voted to keep her on the bench.
Voting is nearly always a subjective exercise. In this case, it was not. Voters who did not have access
to all the necessary information returned someone to office who who, by all accounts, is not only
unfit to hold the position but who can singlehandedly make life-changing decisions for anyone who
appears before her court on issues ranging from parental custody to criminal sentencing.
Most alarmingly, Judge Haynes is not an exception. According to a recent investigation by Colorados
9News, since 1998 only three judges have lost their elections following a do not retain
recommendation.3 This should come as no surprise, as a survey commissioned by the state found
that only one third of voters feel sufficiently informed to make such a decision.

Research and Polling Inc. 2014 Judicial Performance Survey Report 10th Judicial District. March 26, 2014. Colorado, Pueblo.
Garcia, Adrian D. "Colorado Ranks High in 2014 Voter Turnout." Coloradoan. 2015. Accessed August 19, 2016.
http://www.coloradoan.com/story/news/2015/03/18/colorado-among-top-states-voter-turnout/24988567/.
3
Rittimann, Brandon, and Anna Staver. "Colorado Judges Win Elections despite Bad Reviews." 9 News. August 19, 2016. Accessed August
30, 2016. http://www.9news.com/entertainment/television/programs/next-with-kyle-clark/colorado-judges-win-electionsdespite-bad-reviews/301872587.
1
2

This year, 108 judges are on the Colorado ballot. Two have been recommended for dismissal. As
9News Brandon Rittiman told his audience: The experts are begging you fire them, but chances are
you wont.
It is clear from this example, and many others, that many voters are not adequately prepared to vote
in local elections. In this paper, we invite you to explore reasons why and what we can do about it.

Introduction
Every four years, public attention is consumed by the U.S. presidential election, with non-stop
coverage from traditional media and non-stop conversation on social media. Of course, the election of
the most powerful person on the planet to our nations highest office is worth our attention. The
same can be said for the 469 U.S. Senators and Representatives also up for election this year.
And every four years, there is an enormous push to register and turn out voters to the polls.
Candidate campaigns, political parties, advocacy groups, and non-profit organizations spend millions
of dollars and man hours to encourage Americans to exercise their fundamental right to vote. This,
too, is worth our time and resources.
However, in the midst of quadrennial national elections, we tend to lose sight of two important
things:
1. The elected officials who can impact our lives most immediately and directly are the ones
elected at the local and state level;
2. Casting a vote is valuable insofar as we are able to make informed decisions all the way down
the ballot, including and especially those local and state candidates.
Our goal in publishing this white paper is to raise public awareness about the importance of voting
local.
For starters, consider a few facts:

96% of elected officials are elected at the local level;

33% of all taxes are collected at the local and state level;
48% of current U.S. Representatives and Senators launched their political careers from
4

state legislatures, including President Obama;

U.S Department of Commerce. "1992 Census of Governments." https://www.census.gov/prod/2/gov/gc/gc92_1_2.pdf.

18% of bills introduced in state legislatures in 2015 were enacted, compared to 4.4% for
Congress;5

75% of roads, more than 3.07 million miles, are owned/maintained at the state or local
level.6

The importance of voting starts with turning out to vote, but it does not end there. The overriding
goal for our electoral process ought to be encouraging and empowering voters to cast a full and
informed ballot.

Ballot Roll-Off
Colorados Covert Government
After coming up short in her bids to the State Senate in 2008 and her towns city council in 2009,
Natalie Menten won her first election to Colorados Regional Transportation District (RTD) in 2012.
She defeated the incumbent by making her case directly to commuters, spending less than $10 in the
process.
Now, she represents more than 180,000 people on a 15-member board that oversees a $467 million
budget for an agency that has grown to be one of the largest governing bodies in the state.
RTDs bus and light rail system serves a population of 2.87 million people and covers an area of 2,340
square miles across 40 municipalities in the Denver-Metro area. The system supported more than 103
million rides in 2015.7
Menten said that RTD has a direct impact on citizens every day lives by virtue of the tax dollars it
collects and spends, and how its decisions impact the development of neighborhoods along its various
routes.8 At the same time, she said its difficult to run for such an important position that is largely
unknown by the public.
They know what RTD is because they see it on the buses, but they dont know what representation
they have on RTD. In other words, as RTDs former chairman Jon Caldara once told The Denver Post:
RTD is one of the best covert governments in Colorado.9

Ridel, Kaitlyn. "Nearly All State Legislatures Are More Effective than Congress." FiscalNote. 2016. Accessed August 18, 2016.
https://www.fiscalnote.com/2016/03/10/how-efficient-is-your-state-legislature-nearly-all-are-more-effective-than-congress/
6
Soy Transportation Coalition. Number of miles and ownership: federal, state, and local roads. 2010.
http://www.soytransportation.org/Stats/Highway_Number_Miles.pdf
7
"Facts & Figures." RTD. Accessed August 30, 2016. http://www.rtd-denver.com/factsAndFigures.shtml.
8
Natalie Menten, Conversation with the author, June, 2016.
9
Whaley, Monte. "New RTD Board Member Eyes the Agency with Suspicion." The Denver Post. 2013. Accessed August 30, 2016.
http://www.denverpost.com/2013/02/06/new-rtd-board-member-eyes-the-agency-with-suspicion/.

For her part, Menten is an outspoken budget hawk who has vigorously opposed many RTD initiatives
and has even advocated against existing funding streams.10 Menten has a clearly defined point of
view, centered around curbing high density development. Does this point of view represent her
constituents?
Theoretically, it should. Practically speaking, its hard to to tell. In her first election, Menten only won
by 115 votes out of 62,189 votes cast, or .18%. Whats more, a whopping 32,969 (33.85%) people who
cast ballots for other offices from that same district did not do so in the RTD race more than the
number who voted for Menten herself!
Defining the Problem
Voting participation is often misunderstood as a binary choice of whether a registered voter casts a
ballot or not. Observers will focus on, and media will report on, what percentage of the electorate
voted in a particular election. Without a doubt, just showing up to a polling location or opening up a
mail-in ballot is a high enough hurdle that only 36% of Americans did so in the 2014 midterm
elections, the lowest since World War II.11
However, voters face an individual decision in each race on their ballot, and voting data reflects that
upwards of one third of voters do not fill out their full ballot in any given election. These facts and
figures are often ignored after elections.
The phenomenon of voting but not making a decision in individual races, especially those toward the
bottom of the ballot, is known as roll-off. In studies that have been conducted over the years there
has been a consistent level of 10-18% roll-off in State House races and 16-27% roll-off for county
offices.12
Sometimes, the number of voters who roll off a particular race is greater than the margin of victory
for the winning candidate in that race such as those who declined to weigh in on Natalie Mentens
race for Regional Transportation District in 2012. This was also the case, for example, for three
contested New Jersey state Assembly races in 2011, which could have changed outcomes if all the
voters who showed up to the polls had completed their ballots.13

Sachs, David. "Streetsblog Denver." RTD Director Menten: $15 Million for Transit? No Thanks, Spend It on Roads. February 16, 2016.
Accessed August 30, 2016.
http://denver.streetsblog.org/2016/02/16/rtd-director-menten-15-million-for-transit-no-thanks-spend-it-on-roads/.
11
DelReal, Jose A. "Voter Turnout in 2014 Was the Lowest since WWII." Washington Post. November 10, 2016. Accessed August 30, 2016.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2014/11/10/voter-turnout-in-2014-was-the-lowest-since-wwii/.
12
Mann, C. B. , 2011-01-05 "Preventing Ballot Roll-off: A Multi-State Field Experiment Addressing an Overlooked Deficit in Voting
Participation (PM)" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, Hotel InterContinental, New
Orleans, Louisiana Online. 2014-11-26 from http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p482306_index.html
13
John Froonjian, "Voters Who Abstain: Ballot Rolloff in a New Jersey Legislative Election," William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy: 13,
accessed August 8, 2016, http://intraweb.stockton.edu/eyos/hughescenter/content/docs/Pub
10

To illustrate how voters roll off their ballot in a particular election, we analyzed the results of the 2012
presidential election in San Francisco, and in particular the precincts that comprise District 9 of the
Bay Area Regional Transportation (BART) board, which is one of the local elected governing bodies.
Ballot Roll-Off in San Franciscos 2012 General Election
Office

Roll-Off

President

.57%

U.S. Senate

5.45%

State Ballot Measures

8.13 13.35%

U.S. Congress

7.08%

City/County Measures

8.98% 11.40%

State Senate

9.62%

State House

10.13%

Board of Supervisor (City Council)

16.72%

BART District 9

32.85%

As this data shows, roll-off generally increases down the ballot, especially in races where candidates
run without a published party affiliation in this case, San Franciscos non-partisan races for Board
of Supervisors and BART.

Causes & Considerations

He didnt raise any money, build a website, or even vote for himself, yet truck driver Robert Gray won
51% of the vote in a three way race for Mississippis governor in the Democratic Partys primary in
2015. How was he able to defeat his better funded and more active opponents? Perhaps because his
name was first on the ballot, or that it was the only male name. No one quite knows.
Grays seemingly accidental nomination illustrates just how implausible it is that most voters base
their decisions on actual research of the candidates, as well as how far some voters will go to return a
full ballot in the same way a student wouldnt leave a multiple choice question blank on a quiz. For
some of these voters, their candidate decisions are based on name identification such as if theyve
seen a TV ad or yard sign. For others, its party affiliation. And for others still, it might be a candidates

gender. If all else fails, as some Colorado voters told us, it might even be a game of eeny, meeny,
miny, moe.
Still, as we have seen, many voters are willing to abstain from voting in a specific race altogether.
There can be a variety of reasons for this. One reason is that new or infrequent voters may be
confused by the ballot format and incorrectly fill it out.14 Another is a phenomenon called voter
fatigue, in which voters feel overwhelmed by the amount of choices presented to them and end up
not completing their ballots. 15 Yet another reason is that leaving a race blank may be form of
expression or protest in itself. One study found that undervotes in the 2000 presidential race were
nearly 60% higher in states where Ralph Nader was not on the ballot. 16
Overall, the preponderance of research suggests that most voters fail to fill out their ballot in its
entirety because of indecision about who or what to support or oppose.17 This hypothesis is
supported by a study conducted in Texas from 20022006 following Supreme Court mandated
redistricting. The study found a 38% increase in roll-off for House districts that were redrawn. The
researchers concluded that such a high degree of roll-off could only be explained as a result of voters
not knowing anything about their new incumbent or the challenger.18
Down ballot roll-off generally decreases in races that are competitive, which usually correlates with
more campaign spending and greater public knowledge of the candidates or measures.
For example, in 2015, San Francisco voters considered a ballot measure that would regulate and curb
short-term housing rentals a hot topic for the city that is home is AirBnb and also dealing with
rapidly rising housing prices. AirBnb spent $8 million to defeat the measure, running over two dozen
hours of television ads.19 The measure was voted down 55-45%, with 98.5% of voters who cast ballots
in the election weighing in.20 In fact, more voters cast ballots for Measure F than for Mayor. Other
ballot measures saw roll-off of up to 9%, compared to 1.5% for the AirBnb measure.
Although it may seem counterintuitive, competitive races at the top of ballot may lead to greater
roll-off down the ballot. The prevailing theory is that these races, like a presidential race, may
motivate lower information voters to go to the polls, but these voters will still not complete their full
ballot.

Herrnson, P. S. (2012). The Impact of Ballot Type on Voter Errors. American Journal of Political Science, 716-30.
ugenblick, N. a. (2009, April). Ballot Position, Choice Fatigue, and Voter
A
Behavior.http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/ned/Choice_Fatigue.pdf
16
John Froonjian, "Voters Who Abstain: Ballot Rolloff in a New Jersey Legislative Election," William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy: 13,
accessed August 8, 2016, http://intraweb.stockton.edu/eyos/hughescenter/content/docs/Publications/VotersWhoAbstain2013.pdf
17
Hayes, Danny, and Jennifer L. Lawless. "As Local News Goes, So Goes Citizen Engagement: Media, Knowledge, and Participation in U.S.
House Elections." SSRN Electronic Journal SSRN Journal. doi:10.2139/ssrn.2452076.
18
Spencer, Charles, Danny Hayes, and Seth Mckee. "American Today." Dude, Where's My Incumbent? Accessed August 25, 2016.
http://www.american.edu/americantoday/campus-news/20120224-Voters-Sometimes-Lost-in-Redistricting-Shuffle.cfm.
19
Said, Carolyn. "Prop. F: S.F. Voters Reject Measure to Restrict Airbnb Rentals." SFGate. November 4, 2015. Accessed August 30, 2016.
http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Prop-F-Measure-to-restrict-Airbnb-rentals-6609176.php.
20
"SFDOE Results 2015." November 3, 2015. http://www.sfelections.org/results/20151103/#a_english_18.
14
15

Roll-off accelerates in races where party affiliation is not available as a heuristic to voters.
Experiments done with voters participating in nonpartisan judicial elections have shown that voters
are less likely to vote for candidates without a party identifier. This indicates that voters with a heavy
partisan slant will use the party affiliation of candidates as a substitute for knowing more about their
individual stances on issues.21

Consequences
A Ding-Dong Election
Rory Diamonds name was pulled from the hat. Usually, a game of chance might end there. Not in
Duval County, where Supervisor of Elections Jerry Holland had a more complicated plan. All Diamond
won was the chance to call heads or tails on the coin toss. He chose heads, and heads it was.
Still, it wasnt over yet. Having won a second time, Diamond could choose to either go first or defer
to his opponent, Richard Arthur, on choosing a numbered ping-pong ball from a bag. Diamond
decided he would go second. Arthur plucked ping-pong ball number No. 12. Then Diamond went and
got No 4.
Having chosen the lower number, Diamonds luck ran out and Arthur became the Neptune City
Councils newest member on November 15, 2014 11 days after voters went to the polls and tied
the election with 1,448 ballots for each of the candidates.
The contest drew headlines from many miles away, including from The Guardian, which reported the
news under the headline: Florida Men Settle Ding-Dong Election with Ping-Pong Selection.22
Impact
Low voter participation in local elections and down ballot roll-off for local races pose a serious
challenge to democratic governance sometimes leaving major decisions literally up to chance.
Although perhaps most interesting, the increased likelihood of tied votes is not the primary
consequence of low-turnout, low-information local elections, or even a major one. Instead, the
consequence is that the full voice of a community is not being heard and that the decisions being
made at the polls may not be informed.
Should a Judge who received a failing performance review still be presiding over the law? How can a
candidate no one has ever heard of be a major partys candidate for Governor? What mandate does

21

Bonneau, Chris W., and Damon M. Cann. "Party Identification and Vote Choice in Partisan and Nonpartisan Elections." Political Behavior
Polit Behav 37, no. 1 (2013): 43-66. doi:10.1007/s11109-013-9260-2.
22
Gambino, Lauren. "Florida Men Settle Ding-dong Election with Ping-pong Selection." The Guardian. 2014. Accessed August 30, 2016.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2014/nov/15/ping-pongs-balls-settle-tied-local-election-florida.

an elected official have to make decisions when more people skipped voting for the race than voted
for that official... or if the official was effectively chosen by a ping-pong ball?
Moreover, low turnout in local elections has been found to have a substantive effect on minority
representation on city councils. According to one study, Latinos and Asian Americans that make up at
least a quarter of their cities populations will be underrepresented on their city councils by 25% and
22%, respectively. Low turnout has also been found to skew local spending policies and create
opportunities for organized interests to influence public policy.23
In framing their research on local voter participation, Zoltan Hajnal and Paul Lewis write:
In short, at the local level where policies are most likely to be implemented and where a
majority of the nations civic leaders are being elected, important public policy decisions are
being made without the input of most of the affected residents.24
Beyond voting, other indicators paint an equally bleak picture: 81% of of citizens have never
contacted their local elected officials and 76% have never attended a local public meeting.25
Why it Matters
It may not be as sexy as the White House, but City Hall has an important impact on our daily lives.
Local government manages education, emergency fire and medical services, parks and recreation,
courts, and housing services. Just consider the difference an effective city mayor can make. In Kansas
City, for example, Mayor Sly James helped to secure a partnership with Google that provided
residents of Kansas City with an experimental fiber optic network (100x faster than average) and
served to attract new business.26
State government can also impact these areas, alongside other important duties - including the
provision of health care. Consider the issue of Medicaid expansion as one example. The federal
government approved additional funding with the Affordable Care Act, but it was ultimately up to
state legislatures and governors to decide whether to expand the program in their respective states.
While Congress may be gridlocked by political dysfunction, almost every state legislature has proven
to be more effective at passing legislation. In 2015, Congress passed just 4.4% of legislation that was
introduced. Compare that to the Colorado State Legislature that passes 63% on average. State
government has an indirect impact on the federal government, too. In 37 states, the state legislatures
draw the districts that shape our Congress (for better or worse).
23

Holbrook, T. M., and A. C. Weinschenk. "Campaigns, Mobilization, and Turnout in Mayoral Elections." Political Research Quarterly 67, no.
1 (2013): 42-55. doi:10.1177/1065912913494018.
24
Hajnal, Z. L., and P. G. Lewis. "Municipal Institutions and Voter Turnout in Local Elections." Urban Affairs Review 38, no. 5 (2003): 645-68.
doi:10.1177/1078087403038005002.
25
Maciag, Mike. "The Citizens Most Vocal in Local Government." The Citizens Most Vocal in Local Government. July 2014. Accessed August
22, 2016. http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-national-survey-shows-citizens-most-vocal-active-in-local-government.html#data.
26
"Mayor Sly James Listed as "Most Innovative Mayor in the U.S." by Newsweek Magazine." EDCKC. December 18, 2011. Accessed August
19, 2016. http://edckc.com/mayor-sly-james-listed-as-most-innovative-mayor-in-the-u-s-by-newsweek-magazine/.

The bottom line is that voters are least prepared for offices that may affect them the most, and it
impacts us every day in a variety of ways.

Solutions
Providing voters with more information about candidates may increase turnout27 and reduce roll-off.
In a randomized field experiment, researchers tested various communication tactics (phone calls,
mailers, absentee ballot applications) to see what effect each would have on Election Day. The
researchers concluded:
Voter mobilization field experiments have shown that simply informing voters of the names
of candidates for local office in a non-partisan, non-advocacy message increases turnout. A
similar treatment to inform voters about candidates for down-ballot races like state
representative holds significant promise for reducing down-ballot roll-off. 28
Cities and states have taken concrete steps to help inform the public through the publication and
distribution of voter guides that include basic information such as the candidates and measures that
will be on the ballot.
In 1998, Cook County, IL launched a pilot program and mailed voter guides to all 32,000 registered
voters in the participating towns. Of 700 voters surveyed after the election, 90% said they read part of
the voter guide and 60% reported reading all of it. Further, 60% said the voter guides provided
information not otherwise attainable.
Two years later, an Illinois task force convened to publish a set of recommendations on how to get
more voters to participate in elections. The Task force stated that internet versions of voter guides,
like the ones distributed in Cook County, could be used to help citizens create tailor-made versions of
a sample ballot based on their address. At the time, however, the taskforce did not feel that a enough
households used the internet to make this idea practical.29
What might have been true about the internet back in 2000 is certainly not true in 2016, as internet
use has become ubiquitous. Increasingly, the internet is being used as a tool for political and civic
engagement. According to Pew Research, 36% of social network users say the sites are important to
keep up with political news and 25% of social network users say they have become more active on a
specific political issue after reading posts about it online.30
27

Panagopoulos, C. "Partisan and Nonpartisan Message Content and Voter Mobilization: Field Experimental Evidence." Political
Research Quarterly 62, no. 1 (2008): 70-76. doi:10.1177/1065912908316805.
28
Mann, C. B. , 2011-01-05 "Preventing Ballot Roll-off: A Multi-State Field Experiment Addressing an Overlooked Deficit in Voting
Participation (PM)" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, Hotel InterContinental,
New Orleans, Louisiana Online. 2014-11-26 from http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p482306_index.html
29
Canary, Cynthia. "Know Before You Go: A Case for Publicly Funded Voters' Guides." Ohio State Law Journal 64, no. 1 (2003): 81-94.
https://kb.osu.edu/dspace/bitstream/handle/1811/70906/OSLJ_V64N1_0081.pdf.
30
Rainie, Lee, and Aaron Smith. "Politics on Social Networking Sites." Pew Research Center Internet Science Tech RSS. 2012. Accessed
August 17, 2016. http://www.pewinternet.org/2012/09/04/politics-on-social-networking-sites/.

All of this is especially true for the digital-heavy millennial generation. In research published by the
Knight Foundation based on an extensive series of focus groups (Why Millennials Dont Vote for
Mayor), young voters indicated that they do not feel informed enough to vote in local
elections[and] struggle to find information about local elections and dont know which sources to
trust.
After reviewing the research, the Knight Foundation proposed a few measures to increase millennial
down-ballot voter participation, and among these were: creating a smartphone app to provide
candidate information and creating a sense of community around voting.31
Conclusion

Using technology to connect voters with their friends and family to learn about candidates and
engage around elections is both a stated desire among the electorate and practical solution to the
challenge of local voter participation. It is also an opportunity that our community civic leaders,
technologists, voter engagement organizations, and many more ought to rally behind for this
years elections.
Because, no matter who is elected to the White House this November, the president wont be coming
to fix your potholes.

31

Lake Research Partners. "Why Millennials Don't Vote for Mayor." Knight Foundation. Accessed August 26, 2016.
http://www.knightfoundation.org/publications/why-millennials-dont-vote-mayor.

10