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The Cynefin Framework an aid to navigating complexity

The Cynefin framework, developed by the Welsh researcher Dave Snowden, distinguishes
five different types of situations, classified by their state of complexity and order, and
provides guidance on strategies to employ in each.

Simple or Obvious. These are situations where the relationship between cause and effect
is obvious to all: if you do A, you get B. You repeat A and you get B again. The approach
is to Sense - Categorise Respond. You observe what is happening, you put the situation
in the right category and the response is easy. Consequently, in simple systems, we can
apply best practice. There is only one way to do this right.
This is the area we know from the assembly-line factory. The work and the environment
constrain actors in the system so much that they are left with few options and perform as
the system instructs them to.

Complicated. Situations are complicated when there is not a simple relationship between
cause and effect. One cause can have multiple effects requiring analysis or some other
form of investigation and/or the application of expert knowledge. The approach is to
Sense - Analyse Respond. You observe what is happening, then you need some analysis
to figure it out (because it is complicated), after which you can respond with a few
options, any of which produce the desired effect. Thus, in complicated systems, we can
apply good practice, as there are a few options that work well.
Because it is a mechanical system in which the actors are merely cogs in a machine, this is
the area of experts, who know better than the actors how the system's relationships
actually fit best together. The experts design the path to follow and managers implement

their advice. In complicated systems, although there are linear cause-effect relationships,
they are so many and so obscure that some expert insight is necessary to find a good way
through.

Complex. These are situations where the relationship between cause and effect can only
be perceived in retrospect, but never in advance! The approach is to Probe - Sense
Respond; try little, different things, learn quickly what their effect is and then apply your
learning. In complex systems, we need emergent practice. This is the realm where hosting
practices are relevant.
Here the actors are more than cogs. They are active participants in a living system. They
have agency and their actions mutually influence the systems relationships and
behaviours. Thus, it is impossible to discern causal relationships in advance, and experts
will fail to do so as much as anyone else. Leading in complexity is a game of trial and
learning. The perspective and experiences of each participant in these system provides
important information for the system to be able to see the mutual relationships. The art is
to launch a number of different possible actions together and see which works better.
Those are then amplified, while the less effective approaches are stopped or revised. There
is no best or good practice, because there is no clear and visible linear causality, only an
intricate web of entangled factors and relationships.

Chaotic. When any pattern of relationship between cause and effect at systems level is
beyond the human capacity to discern (think tsunami), Snowden calls it chaotic. The
approach is to Act - Sense Respond. Just do something (there is no time left for
experimentation), and see what the effect is. After some time the chaos stabilises into
'normal' complexity where further actions can be tested. In chaotic systems, we can
discover novel practice.
Leading in chaos is stressful - as the whole system is in stress mode. Chaotic systems tend
to be unstable and subject to catastrophic collapse back into simple systems. As the
simplification brought into the system tends be excessive, suppressing the system's
inherent complexity, the system is liable to revert to chaos again.

Disordered. Where there is no clarity about what type of causality exists (a disordered
situation), people will naturally revert to their own comfort zone in making a decision
about how to act.

The Cynefin framework shows us that leading in complexity is actually simple although
not easy! It suffices to keep breathing: inhale (divergence), suspend (emergence), exhale
(convergence) as we constantly test new or improved ways of acting to respond to constantly
fresh constellations in a world where all actors have a large degree of freedom lightly
constrained by the boundaries and rules of the system.

References:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynefin
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mqNcs8mp74 (brief explanation of the Cynefin
framework)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Miwb92eZaJg (how to organise a birthday party for
13-year-old boys)

Text taken from the 2016 Belgium Art of Hosting Companion Guide compiled and edited by
Steve Ryman and Helen Titchen Beeth.
Graphics by Lara Listens (www.LaraListens.eu)