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Public Affairs & Corporate Communications

THE AP-GfK POLL


October, 2016
Conducted by GfK Public Affairs & Corporate Communications

A survey of the American general population (ages 18+)

Interview dates: October 20 October 24, 2016


Number of interviews, adults: 1,546
Margin of error for the total sample: +/- 2.75 percentage points at the 95% confidence level

NOTE: All results show percentages among all respondents, unless otherwise labeled.
Please refer to the exact sample number at the bottom of each table.

*Beginning in October, 2013, AP-GfK polls were conducted online using GfKs nationally representative
KnowledgePanel. All prior trend conducted by telephone.
For more information, see http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com.

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

7/7-11/16

3/31-4/4/16

2/11-15/16

12/3-7/15

10/15-19/15

7/9-13/15

4/23-27/15

1/29-2/2/15

12/4-8/14

TOTAL
10/15-20/14

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/16-20/14

LIKELY VOTERS
10/15-20/14

TOTAL
9/25-29/14

CUR1. Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the

Right direction
Wrong direction
Refused/Not
answered

31
69

31
69

32
67

29
71

29
71

30
70

19
79

29
71

32
68

26
74

36
63

35
64

38
62

39
60

33
66

31
68

31
69

31
69

34
66

Based on:

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

N=1,694

N=1,476

N=1,251

N=1,009

N=1,076

N=1,033

N=1,007

N=1,027

N=1,004

N=1,077

N=1,045

N=1,010

N=1,608

N=1,385

N=968

N=1,845

CUR2/
CUR3/
CUR3A/3AA
CUR3B.

Overall, do you approve, disapprove, or neither approve nor disapprove of the way Barack
Obama is handling his job as president.
[IF APPROVE] Would you say you approve of the way Obama is handling his job as
president strongly or do you approve just somewhat?
[IF DISAPPROVE] Would you say you disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job as
president strongly or do you disapprove just somewhat?

3/31-4/4/16

2/11-15/16

12/3-7/15

10/15-19/15

7/9-13/15

4/23-27/15

1/29-2/2/15

12/4-8/14

TOTAL
10/16-20/14
REGISTERED VOTERS
10/16-20/14
LIKELY VOTERS
10/16-20/14

7/7-11/16

TOTAL
10/20-24/16
REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16
LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16
TOTAL
9/15-19/16
REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16
LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

[IF NEITHER, OR REFUSED/NOT ANSWERED] If you had to choose, do you lean more
toward approving or disapproving of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as
president? [NOTE: BEGINNING IN DECEMBER, 2013, RESPONDENTS WHO DECLINE TO
LEAN ARE SHOWN THIS QUESTION AGAIN INCLUDING A DO NOT LEAN EITHER WAY
RESPONSE OPTION]

55

54

53

51

49

50

47

50

44

44

46

43

45

47

41

42

42

41

Strongly approve

28

28

30

24

25

27

20

24

20

18

17

18

18

20

13

14

16

17

Somewhat approve

13

14

15

12

13

12

12

12

12

10

12

11

12

11

12

11

12

12

Lean approve

14

11

14

12

10

16

14

13

17

17

14

15

16

16

16

14

11

Total approve

Neitherdont lean
Total disapprove

45

46

47

49

51

50

52

50

55

54

54

55

55

52

58

58

58

60

Lean disapprove

11

11

11

13

12

10

13

10

13

13

11

Somewhat disapprove

10

10

10

10

13

12

12

11

11

11

10

Strongly disapprove

28

31

33

30

32

34

32

30

34

34

29

33

30

31

33

34

38

44

Refused/Not Answered

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

N=1,694

N=1,476

N=1,251

N=1,009

N=1,076

N=1,033

N=1,007

N=1,027

N=1,004

N=1,077

N=1,045

N=1,010

N=1,608

N=1,385

N=968

Based on:

AA4./
AA4A/
AA4B/
AA5/
AA5A.

Overall, do you approve, disapprove, or neither approve nor disapprove of the way
Congress is handling its job.
[IF APPROVE] Would you say you approve of the way Congress is handling its job
strongly or do you approve just somewhat?
[IF DISAPPROVE] Would you say you disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job
strongly or do you disapprove just somewhat?

3/31-4/4/16

2/11-15/16

12/3-7/15

10/15-19/15

7/9-13/15

4/23-27/15

1/29-2/2/15

12/4-8/14

16

14

14

15

13

12

12

13

15

12

16

17

19

15

15

Somewhat approve

Lean approve

10

11

10

10

11

12

12

12

Total disapprove

84

86

86

84

87

88

86

86

84

86

83

82

80

83

Lean disapprove

20

18

15

18

17

15

20

18

21

23

19

19

22

21

Somewhat disapprove

18

19

19

19

19

20

18

18

18

18

19

20

18

Strongly disapprove

46

49

52

47

50

53

49

50

45

45

45

43

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

N=1,694

N=1,476

N=1,251

N=1,009

N=1,076

N=1,033

N=1,007

N=1,027

N=1,004

Total approve
Strongly approve

Neitherdont lean

Refused/Not Answered
Based on:

TOTAL
10/16-20/14
REGISTERED VOTERS
10/16-20/14
LIKELY VOTERS
10/16-20/14

7/7-11/16

TOTAL
10/20-24/16
REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16
LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16
TOTAL
9/15-19/16
REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16
LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

[IF NEITHER OR REFUSED/NOT ANSWERED] If you had to choose, do you lean more
toward approving or disapproving of the way Congress is handling its job? [NOTE:
BEGINNING IN DECEMBER, 2013, RESPONDENTS WHO DECLINE TO LEAN ARE SHOWN
THIS QUESTION AGAIN INCLUDING A DO NOT LEAN EITHER WAY RESPONSE OPTION]

13

12

12

11

12

84

86

88

88

19

19

18

12

19

20

20

20

20

40

43

45

47

51

57

N=1,077

N=1,045

N=1,608

N=1,385

N=968

N=1,010

S1.

Is [INSERT STATE] your primary residence? Primary residence is determined by where


you are registered to vote or eligible to register to vote.
[IF NO/REFUSED] Which state is your primary residence?

14

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

N=1,694

N=1,476

N=1,251

LIKELY VOTERS
10/16-20/14

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/16-20/14

TOTAL
10/16-20/14

13

4/23-27/15

100

7/9-13/15

100

82
18
1

80
19
*

79
20
*
-

100
-

100
-

N=1,023

N=1,002

N=1,077

N=1,607

N=1,384

N=967

10/15-19/15

86

12-3-7/15

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

100

2/11-15/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

100

3/31-4/4/16

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

85

7/7-11/16*

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Based on: (Excludes those living in ND)

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Yes, registered
No, not registered
Not sure
Refused/Not answered

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

Are you registered to vote in [STATE] or not??

81
18

80
20
1

78

76

21

23

82
18
1

N=1,008

N=1,075

N=1,030

N=1,006

*July 2016 and earlier polls asked Are you registered to vote at your address, or not?

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

Based on:

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Always/nearly always
Always
Nearly always
About half the time
Seldom/Never
Seldom
Never
Refused/Not answered

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

How often do you vote in elections?

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

S120.

74
50
24
6
19
6
13
*

86
58
28
7
8
4
3
*

94
64
30
4
2
1
1
-

70
45
26
9
20
7
14
*

81
51
30
10
9
6
3
-

92
60
33
6
2
2
*
-

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

N=1,694

N=1,476

N=1,251

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

70
62
7
6
15
3
12

80
72
7
4
4
2
3

87
83
4
-

76
67
10
9
15
4
10

87
77
11
8
5
2
3

100
93
7
-

10
*

12
*

13
-

na
*

na
*

na
-

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

N=1,694

N=1,476

N=1,251

Refused/Not answered
Based on: Uncertain, probably will, definitely will vote

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

I will vote at a polling place on election day


I will vote before election day by mailing in my ballot
I will vote before election day by dropping off my absentee
ballot in person
I do not plan to vote in the election

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Which best describes how you plan to cast your ballot in this years presidential election? If I
vote...

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

S155.

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

Based on:

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Will vote
Definitely will vote
Probably will vote
Uncertain about whether I will vote or not
Will not vote
Probably will not vote
Definitely will not vote
I have already voted in the election (by mail,
absentee ballot, or by early voting in person
Refused/Not answered

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

On November 8th, the presidential election will be held. How likely are you to vote in this
presidential election?

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

S150.

75
16

75
16

77
15

8
2
*

8
1
*

8
*

N=1,186

N-1,134

N=1,046

HR_1.

[IF WILL VOTE INSERT] Thinking about the Presidential Election thats being held on November
8th, for whom will you vote?][IF DID VOTE INSERT] Thinking about the Presidential Election
thats being held on November 8th, for whom did you vote?][IF WILL NOT VOTE INSERT] If
you were to vote in the Presidential Election thats being held on November 8th, which
candidate would you choose?

Base: all respondents

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
7/7-11/16

Hillary Clinton and


Tim Kaine, the
Democrats
Donald Trump and
Mike Pence, the
Republicans
Gary Johnson and Bill
Weld, the Libertarians
Jill Stein and Ajamu
Baraka, the Green
Party candidates
Another candidate
Undecided
Would not vote in this
race
Refused/Not
answered

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

[LIST RANDOMIZED]

44

45

48

37

37

41

34

29

31

33

29

32

35

30

2
2
13

2
2
13

1
1
11

2
2
16

2
2
16

2
1
13

1
4
21

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

N=1,694

N=1,476

N=1,251

N=837

*Note: Vice Presidential candidates not shown in July 2016 poll


**Note: September wording was If the 2016 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote?

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
7/7-11/16

[IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED] As of today, do you lean more toward [SAME ROTATION AS
HR_1: Hillary Clinton, the Democrat; Donald Trump, the Republican], or another
candidate?

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

HR_2.

33

30

27

29

31

29

29

30

32

34

30

28

30

28

14

16

16

13

14

15

11

5
10
8

4
10
7

6
11
6

4
12
11

4
13
11

3
9
12

5
23
5

N=195

N=171

N=136

N=275

N=240

N=169

N=172

Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, the


Democrats
Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the
Republicans
Gary Johnson and Bill Weld, the
Libertarians
Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka, the
Green Party candidates
Another candidate
Refused/Not answered
Base: Undecided/refused

*Note: Vice Presidential candidates not shown in July 2016 poll

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
7/7-11/16

Base: all respondents

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, the


Democrats
Donald Trump and Mike Pence,
the Republicans
Gary Johnson and Bill Weld, the
Libertarians
Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka, the
Green Party candidates
Another candidate
Refused/Not answered
Would not vote in this race

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

[IF WILL VOTE INSERT] Thinking about the Presidential Election thats being held on
November 8th, for whom will you vote?][IF DID VOTE INSERT] Thinking about the
Presidential Election thats being held on November 8th, for whom did you vote?][IF WILL
NOT VOTE INSERT] If you were to vote in the Presidential Election thats being held on
November 8th, which candidate would you choose? As of today, do you lean more toward
[SAME ROTATION AS HR_1: Hillary Clinton, the Democrat; Donald Trump, the
Republican], or another candidate?

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

HR_1/HR_2.

49

49

51

42

42

45

40

33

35

37

34

37

39

36

2
3
1
6

2
3
1
3

2
3
1
*

2
4
2
7

2
4
2
4

2
2
2
1

2
9
1
6

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

N=1,694

N=1,476

N=1,251

N=837

*Note: Vice Presidential candidates not shown in July 2016 poll

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
7/7-11/16

87
12
*

88
12
*

90
10
*

78
22
1

78
22
*

80
20
*

70
30
*

N=1,111

N=985

N=906

N=1,308

N=1,187

N=1,074

N=623

10

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

Based on: Stein, Johnson or Other in HR_1


or HR_2 and did not already vote

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

Refused/Not Answered

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

1. Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, the


Democrats
2. Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the
Republicans
6. Undecided
7. Would not vote in this race

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

If the 2016 presidential election were held today and these were the only candidates on the
ballot, for whom would you vote?

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

HR_1b.

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

Based on: Will vote Clinton, Trump,


Stein, Johnson or Other in HR_1 and
did not already vote

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

Refused/Not Answered

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Mind is completely made up


Could change mind

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Is your mind completely made up about which candidate you will support, or could you
imagine supporting another candidate?

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

HR4.

16

17

17

17

18

23

17
32
34
1

16
34
32
1

15
43
24
1

18
28
36
1

20
30
32
1

22
29
25
1

N=151

N=136

N=111

N=238

N=214

N=160

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

HR2b. As of today, would you lean more toward [IN SAME ROTATION AS ABOVE: Hillary Clinton, the
Democrat or Donald Trump, the Republican]?

42

43

43

43

44

41

48
10

49
9

49
9

41
16

41
15

47
12

N=53

N=50

N=48

N=73

N=69

N=51

3. Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, the


Democrats
4. Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the
Republicans
Refused/Not Answered

Based on: Undecided or refused in HR_1b

11

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

Base:

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, the


Democrats
Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the
Republicans
Already voted for another candidate
Would not vote
Refused/Not answered

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

HR_1/HR_2/HR_1b/HR_2b.
If the 2016 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote? [IF UNDECIDED OR
REFUSED] As of today, do you lean more toward [SAME ROTATION AS HR_1: Hillary Clinton, the
Democrat; Donald Trump, the Republican], or another candidate? HR_1b. If the 2016
presidential election were held today and these were the only candidates on the ballot, for whom
would you vote? HR2b. As of today, would you lean more toward [IN SAME ROTATION AS
ABOVE: Hillary Clinton, the Democrat or Donald Trump, the Republican]?

52

53

54

46

47

50

36
1
10
1

39
1
6
1

41
1
3
1

38
na
13
3

42
na
11
2

44
na
4
2

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

N=1,694

N=1,476

N=1,251

HR5.

Would you say that each of the following is a major reason, a minor reason, or not a reason at all
in deciding which candidate you plan to support this year?

My candidate has the best


positions on the issues
My candidate is the strongest
leader
My candidate is most qualified to
be president
I oppose the other candidate
Voting for my candidate sends a
message to the political
establishment

Major
reason

Minor
reason

Not a
reason
at all

Refused

63

23

12

58

23

16

59

23

16

77

13

45

23

31

Based on: Will vote or lean towards voting for Clinton, Trump, Stein, Johnson
or Other in HR_1 or HR_2; N=1,453

12

13

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
7/7-11/16

63
24
12
1

66
23
10
1

63
23
13
2

N=1,453

N=1,307

N=1,197

N=1,552

N=1,401

N=1,223

N=787

REGISTERED VOTERS
7/7-11/16

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

63
24
12
2

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

Base: Will vote for


Clinton/Trump/Johnson/Stein/Other

68
21
9
2

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

Major reason
Minor reason
Not a reason
Refused/Not answered

65
23
11
2

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

My candidate is the strongest


leader

63
23
12
2

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Base: Will vote for


Clinton/Trump/Johnson/Stein/Other

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Major reason
Minor reason
Not a reason
Refused/Not answered

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

My candidate has the best


positions on the issues

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

Would you say that each of the following is a major reason, a minor reason, or not a reason at all
in deciding which candidate you plan to support this year?

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

HR5.

58
23
16
2

60
23
15
2

63
22
13
2

61
23
14
2

62
24
13
2

65
23
11
2

55
25
17
3

N=1,453

N=1,307

N=1,197

N=1,552

N=1,401

N=1,223

N=787

REGISTERED VOTERS
7/7-11/16

63
21
15
2

65
21
12
1

58
24
17
2

N=1,453

N=1,307

N=1,197

N=1,552

N=1,401

N=1,223

N=787

REGISTERED VOTERS
7/7-11/16

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

63
21
15
2

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

63
21
14
2

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

61
23
15
2

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

59
23
16
2

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Base: Will vote for


Clinton/Trump/Johnson/Stein/Other

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Major reason
Minor reason
Not a reason
Refused/Not answered

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

My candidate is most qualified to


be president

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

(Continued) Would you say that each of the following is a major reason, a minor reason, or not a
reason at all in deciding which candidate you plan to support this year?

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

HR5.

77
13
9
1

79
12
8
1

81
11
7
1

74
15
10
1

75
15
9
1

78
13
8
1

75
16
8
1

N=1,453

N=1,307

N=1,197

N=1,552

N=1,401

N=1,223

N=787

I oppose the other candidate

Major reason
Minor reason
Not a reason
Refused/Not answered
Base: Will vote for
Clinton/Trump/Johnson/Stein/Other

14

15

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
7/7-11/16

Base: Will vote for


Clinton/Trump/Johnson/Stein/Other

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

Major reason
Minor reason
Not a reason
Refused/Not answered

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Voting for my candidate sends a


message to the political
establishment

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

(Continued) Would you say that each of the following is a major reason, a minor reason, or not a
reason at all in deciding which candidate you plan to support this year?

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

HR5.

45
23
31
2

46
21
31
2

48
20
30
2

45
23
30
2

45
23
31
2

47
22
30
2

43
23
32
2

N=1,453

N=1,307

N=1,197

N=1,552

N=1,401

N=1,223

N=787

Which party would you rather see win control of Congress?

7/24-28/14

5/16-19/14

3/20-24/14

1/17-21/14

12/5-9/13

TOTAL
10/20-24/16
REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16
LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16
TOTAL
9/15-19/16
REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16
LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16
REGISTERED VOTERS
7/7-11/16
TOTAL
9/25-29/14
REGISTERED VOTERS
9/25-29/14
LIKELY VOTERS
9/25-29/14

A5.

The Democratic Party


The Republican Party
Doesnt matter
Refused/Not Answered

44
39
17
*

44
38
17
*

46
41
13
*

42
39
19
*

42
39
19
*

45
41
14
*

41
36
23
*

40
34
25
*

43
38
19
*

42
45
13
*

33
33
33
*

37
31
31
1

36
37
26
1

39
32
29
1

39
33
27
1

Based on: Registered voters

N=1,354

N=1,354

N=1,212

N=1,476

N=1,476

N=1,251

N=837

N=1,845

N=1,541

N=958

N=1,044

N=1,354

N=1,012

N=1,060

N=1,367

HR_3b

If the 2016 presidential election were held today and these were the candidates on the ballot,
for whom would you vote?

16

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Base:

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Hillary Clinton, the Democrat


Mike Pence, the Republican
Undecided
Would not vote in this race
Refused/Not answered

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

Order of candidates rotated

45
36
10
9
1

46
40
10
5
1

48
41
8
2
1

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

HR4b.

[IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED] As of today, would you lean more toward [SAME ROTATION
AS HR3b: Hillary Clinton, the Democrat; Mike Pence, the Republican]?

32
58
11

32
59
9

N=160

N=138

N=106

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Base:

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

If the 2016 presidential election were held today and these were the candidates on the
ballot, for whom would you vote? HR4b.
[IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED] As of today,
would you lean more toward [SAME ROTATION AS HR3b: Hillary Clinton, the Democrat;
Mike Pence, the Republican]?

Hillary Clinton, the Democrat


Mike Pence, the Republican
Would not vote in this race
Refused/Not answered

17

35
54
12

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

HR_3b/4b

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Base: Undecided/refused

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Hillary Clinton, the Democrat


Mike Pence, the Republican
Refused/Not answered

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

Order of candidates rotated

49
41
9
1

49
46
5
1

51
47
2
1

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

HR_5b

If the 2016 presidential election were held today and these were the candidates on the ballot,
for whom would you vote?

HR6b.

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Base:

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Tim Kaine, the Democrat


Donald Trump, the Republican
Undecided
Would not vote in this race
Refused/Not answered

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

Order of candidates rotated

43
31
11
14
2

45
33
12
9
1

47
36
11
5
1

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

[IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED] As of today, would you lean more toward [SAME ROTATION
AS HR5b: Tim Kaine, the Democrat; Donald Trump, the Republican]?

18

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Base: Undecided/refused

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Tim Kaine, the Democrat


Donald Trump, the Republican
Refused/Not answered

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

Order of candidates rotated

61
28
11

60
30
10

62
30
8

N=204

N=184

N=150

Base: Undecided/refused

HR_7b

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Tim Kaine, the Democrat


Donald Trump, the Republican
Would not vote in this race
Refused/Not answered

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

If the 2016 presidential election were held today and these were the candidates on the
ballot, for whom would you vote? HR6b.
[IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED] As of today,
would you lean more toward [SAME ROTATION AS HR5b: Tim Kaine, the Democrat;
Donald Trump, the Republican]?

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

HR_5b/6b

51
34
14
1

53
37
9
1

55
39
5
1

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

If the 2016 presidential election were held today and these were the candidates on the ballot,
for whom would you vote?

19

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Base:

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Tim Kaine, the Democrat


Mike Pence, the Republican
Undecided
Would not vote in this race
Refused/Not answered

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

Order of candidates rotated

38
38
11
11
2

40
41
11
6
2

42
44
9
3
2

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

HR8b.

[IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED] As of today, would you lean more toward [SAME ROTATION
AS HR7b: Tim Kaine, the Democrat; Mike Pence, the Republican]?

56
34
10

57
34
9

N=199

N=169

N=134

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Base:

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

If the 2016 presidential election were held today and these were the candidates on the
ballot, for whom would you vote? HR8b.
[IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED] As of today,
would you lean more toward [SAME ROTATION AS HR7b: Tim Kaine, the Democrat; Mike
Pence, the Republican]?

Tim Kaine, the Democrat


Mike Pence, the Republican
Would not vote in this race
Refused/Not answered

20

56
34
10

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

HR_7b/8b

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Base:

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Tim Kaine, the Democrat


Mike Pence, the Republican
Refused/Not answered

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

Order of candidates rotated

46
42
11
1

47
46
6
1

49
48
3
1

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

Based on:

21

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Definitely/Probably re-elect Obama


Definitely vote to re-elect Obama
Probably vote to re-elect Obama
Definitely/Probably vote for someone else
Probably vote for someone else
Definitely vote for someone else
Would not vote
Refused/Not Answered

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

If President Barack Obama was allowed to run for a third term, would you most likely vote
to re-elect him, or vote for someone else?

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

HR_Obama.

43
27
17
48
10
38
8
1

44
27
17
51
10
42
3
1

45
28
17
52
9
44
2
1

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

CURX1.

How important are each of the following issues to you personally?

22

4/23-27/15

1/29-2/2/15

12/4-8/14

88
53
35
9
1
1
*
2

83
50
32
10
4
2
2
3

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

N=1,694

N=1,476

N=1,251

N=1,009

N=1,076

N=1,033

N=1,007

N=1,027

N=1,004

N=1,077

N=1,045

N=1,010

12/4-8/14

7/9-13/15

87
53
34
9
3
2
1
1

1/29-2/2/15

10/15-19/15

87
53
34
9
3
1
1
2

4/23-27/15

12-3-7/15

83
49
34
11
4
2
2
2

7/9-13/15

2/11-15/16

83
50
33
13
3
2
1
2

10/15-19/15

3/31-4/4/16

84
45
39
10
4
3
1
2

12-3-7/15

7/7-11/16

81
42
39
12
5
3
2
2

2/11-15/16

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

85
53
32
10
3
2
1
3

3/31-4/4/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

93
64
29
5
1
1
1
1

7/7-11/16

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

92
62
30
6
2
1
1
1

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

89
61
29
7
3
1
1
1

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

Based on:

92
62
30
5
2
1
1
1

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

Extremely/Very important
Extremely important
Very important
Moderately important
Slightly/Not at all important
Slightly important
Not at all important
Refused/Not Answered

91
60
31
5
2
1
1
2

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Immigration

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Based on:

89
58
31
6
3
2
1
2

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Extremely/Very important
Extremely important
Very important
Moderately important
Slightly/Not at all important
Slightly important
Not at all important
Refused/Not Answered

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

The economy

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

[ITEMS RANDOMIZED]

60
33
27
25
14
10
4
2

60
33
27
25
14
11
3
1

63
35
28
24
13
10
3
1

60
33
27
25
14
10
4
1

60
32
29
26
13
9
4
1

64
34
29
23
12
9
3
1

58
32
26
25
14
10
4
3

54
24
30
27
17
11
6
2

54
27
27
28
16
11
5
2

61
34
26
21
16
10
6
2

57
27
30
24
17
11
6
2

55
28
27
27
17
13
4
2

57
28
29
26
16
10
6
1

52
27
26
25
20
15
5
2

50
22
28
26
21
14
7
3

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

N=1,694

N=1,476

N=1,251

N=1,009

N=1,076

N=1,033

N=1,007

N=1,027

N=1,004

N=1,077

N=1,045

N=1,010

(Continued)
CURX1.

How important are each of the following issues to you personally?

23

TOTAL
10/16-20/14

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/16-20/14

LIKELY VOTERS
10/16-20/14

78
43
35
15
6
4
1
1

78
43
35
15
6
4
1
1

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

N=1,009

N=1,076

N=1,033

N=1,007

N=1,004

N=1,077

N=1,045

N=1,010

N=1,608

N=1,385

N=968

12/4-8/14

12/4-8/14

75
40
35
17
7
5
2
1

4/23-27/15

1/29-2/2/15

76
43
34
14
7
4
3
3

7/9-13/15

4/23-27/15

73
40
33
18
6
4
3
3

10/15-19/15

7/9-13/15

78
46
32
15
6
4
2
1

12-3-7/15

12-3-7/15

79
44
34
14
6
4
2
1

2/11-15/16

2/11-15/16

74
45
29
17
6
5
1
2

3/31-4/4/16

3/31-4/4/16

74
40
34
17
7
5
1
2

7/7-11/16

7/7-11/16

74
38
36
17
7
6
2
2

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

74
44
31
19
5
4
1
2

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

Based on:

84
52
31
12
3
2
1
1

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

Extremely/Very important
Extremely important
Very important
Moderately important
Slightly/Not at all important
Slightly important
Not at all important
Refused/Not Answered

82
51
31
12
4
3
1
1

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

The U.S. role in world affairs

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Based on:

81
50
31
13
4
3
1
1

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Extremely/Very important
Extremely important
Very important
Moderately important
Slightly/Not at all important
Slightly important
Not at all important
Refused/Not Answered

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

Health care

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

[ITEMS RANDOMIZED]

67
34
33
23
8
6
2
2

70
36
34
22
7
5
2
2

73
38
35
21
6
5
1
1

65
30
35
21
13
8
4
2

68
31
37
21
10
8
2
2

72
34
38
18
9
8
1
1

56
27
29
28
13
10
4
2

55
22
34
29
14
10
4
2

58
23
35
28
12
8
4
2

62
27
35
25
11
9
3
2

57
23
34
29
12
9
4
2

59
26
33
27
12
9
4
2

60
27
34
25
14
10
4
1

52
22
30
28
18
12
6
3

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

N=862

N=755

N=620

N=1,009

N=1,076

N=1,033

N=1,007

N=1,027

N=1,004

N=1,077

N=1,010

(Continued)
CURX1.

How important are each of the following issues to you personally?

24

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

7/7-11/16

3/31-4/4/16

2/11-15/16

12-3-7/15

10/15-19/15

Based on:

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Extremely/Very important
Extremely important
Very important
Moderately important
Slightly/Not at all important
Slightly important
Not at all important
Refused/Not Answered

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

The threat posed by the


Islamic State group

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

[ITEMS RANDOMIZED]

69
40
29
19
11
7
3
1

71
42
30
17
10
7
3
1

73
43
30
16
10
7
3
1

67
42
26
19
12
9
4
2

70
44
27
18
11
9
3
1

74
46
28
16
10
8
2
1

68
43
25
19
10
7
3
3

69
40
29
15
15
10
5
1

69
41
28
18
11
8
3
2

73
48
25
16
9
6
3
2

65
35
30
20
14
10
4
1

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

N=832

N=721

N=631

N=1,009

N=1,076

N=1,033

N=1,007

N=1,027

FAV1.

Barack Obama
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
Mike Pence
Tim Kaine
Bill Clinton
Melania Trump
Michelle Obama

25

For each of the following individuals, please select if you have a favorable or unfavorable
impression of that person. If you dont know enough about the person to have an opinion, you
can say that too. (Summary table)

Total
favorable
55
44
31
41
40
47
27
60

Very
favorable
37
23
13
19
11
18
9
43

Somewhat
favorable
18
22
18
22
29
29
19
17

Total
unfavorable
40
50
63
32
29
47
41
33

Somewhat
unfavorable
10
11
11
15
13
18
18
11

Very
unfavorable
30
39
52
17
16
29
23
22

Dont
know
enough
to say
4
4
5
25
29
5
30
6

Refused
1
2
2
2
2
2
1
1

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

7/7-11/16

3/31-4/4/16

2/11-15/16

12-3-7/15

10/15-19/15

7/9-13/15

4/23-27/15

55

55

55

51

50

50

49

53

45

48

47

46

46

46

41

Very favorable

37

38

39

32

32

35

30

31

24

25

24

24

27

26

21

Somewhat favorable

18

17

16

18

18

15

19

22

21

24

23

22

20

20

20

Total unfavorable

40

42

44

45

47

47

46

44

47

44

45

47

46

45

46

Somewhat unfavorable
Very unfavorable
Dont know enough to say
Refused/Not Answered

10
30
4
1

10
32
2
1

9
35
1
1

15
30
4
1

15
32
3
1

14
34
2
1

14
32
3
2

11
32
2
1

11
36
6
2

11
34
6
2

14
31
6
2

13
34
5
2

15
31
7
1

13
32
6
3

13
33
11
2

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

N=1,694

N=1,476

N=1,251

N=1,009

N=1,076

N=1,033

N=1,007

N=1,027

N=1,004

N=1,077

N=1,045

N=1,010

Hillary Clinton

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

7/7-11/16

3/31-4/4/16

2/11-15/16

12-3-7/15

10/15-19/15

7/9-13/15

4/23-27/15

7/24-28/14

3/20-24/14

Based on:

12/4-8/14

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Total favorable

1/29-2/2/15

Barack Obama

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

(Continued)
FAV1.
For each of the following individuals, please select if you have a favorable or unfavorable
impression of that person. If you dont know enough about the person to have an opinion, you
can say that too.

Total favorable

44

44

46

40

39

42

37

40

38

44

41

39

46

48

46

Very favorable

23

23

24

19

19

22

15

17

17

18

17

18

22

21

21

22

21

22

21

20

21

22

23

22

25

24

21

24

27

26

Total unfavorable

Somewhat favorable

50

52

51

54

56

54

57

55

51

46

48

49

41

42

39

Somewhat unfavorable
Very unfavorable
Dont know enough to
say
Refused/Not Answered

11
39

11
41

9
43

12
42

13
44

10
44

14
44

17
38

13
38

10
36

13
35

16
33

12
30

14
29

14
25

4
2

2
2

1
1

4
2

3
2

2
2

4
2

4
1

8
2

8
2

8
2

9
2

12
2

8
2

12
2

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

N=1,694

N=1,476

N=1,251

N=1,009

N=1,076

N=1,033

N=1,007

N=1,027

N=1,004

N=1,077

N=1,044

N=1,012

Based on:

26

Donald Trump

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

7/7-11/16

3/31-4/4/16

2/11-15/16

12-3-7/15

10/15-19/15

7/9-13/15

(Continued)
FAV1.
For each of the following individuals, please select if you have a favorable or unfavorable
impression of that person. If you dont know enough about the person to have an opinion, you
can say that too.

Total favorable

31

33

34

32

34

37

31

26

32

30

31

28

Very favorable

13

13

15

13

14

16

13

11

13

12

10

10

Somewhat favorable

18

19

19

19

20

21

18

15

19

19

21

18

Total unfavorable

63

64

64

63

61

60

63

69

58

58

57

58

Somewhat unfavorable
Very unfavorable
Dont know enough to
say
Refused/Not Answered

11
52

12
52

11
53

12
51

11
50

10
51

13
50

13
56

15
43

12
45

15
43

15
43

5
2

2
2

1
2

4
2

3
1

2
1

4
2

4
1

7
3

10
2

8
3

12
2

N=1,694

N=1,476

N=1,251

N=1,009

N=1,076

N=1,033

N=1,007

N=1,027

N=1,004

Based on:

27

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

For each of the following individuals, please select if you have a favorable or unfavorable
impression of that person. If you dont know enough about the person to have an opinion,
you can say that too.

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

(Continued)
FAV1.

Total favorable

41

43

45

26

29

32

Very favorable

19

21

24

12

13

15

Somewhat favorable

22

22

22

14

16

17

Total unfavorable

32

34

36

26

27

29

Somewhat unfavorable
Very unfavorable
Dont know enough to say
Refused/Not Answered

15
17
25
2

15
19
21
1

16
20
17
1

10
15
47
1

11
16
44
*

11
17
39
*

N=832

N=721

N=631

Mike Pence

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

Tim Kaine

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

N=1,212

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

N=1,349

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

N=1,546

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

Based on:

Total favorable

40

41

44

26

27

30

Very favorable

11

12

13

Somewhat favorable

29

30

31

18

19

21

Total unfavorable

29

30

31

19

20

21

Somewhat unfavorable
Very unfavorable
Dont know enough to say
Refused/Not Answered

13
16
29
2

13
18
26
2

13
19
23
2

10
9
54
2

10
10
52
1

11
11
48
1

N=832

N=721

N=631

Based on:

28

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

REGISTERED
VOTERS 10/20-24/16

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

TOTAL
7/7-11/16

For each of the following individuals, please select if you have a favorable or unfavorable
impression of that person. If you dont know enough about the person to have an opinion,
you can say that too.

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

(Continued)
FAV1.

Total favorable

47

48

48

44

Very favorable

18

19

19

17

Somewhat favorable

29

29

30

27

Total unfavorable

47

48

49

49

Somewhat unfavorable
Very unfavorable
Dont know enough to say
Refused/Not Answered

18
29
5
2

17
31
3
1

16
33
1
1

21
28
5
2

Bill Clinton

N=1,009

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

N=1,212

Melania Trump
Total favorable

27

29

31

10

Very favorable
Somewhat favorable

19

20

21

Total unfavorable

41

41

41

Somewhat unfavorable
Very unfavorable
Dont know enough to say
Refused/Not Answered

18
23
30
1

19
22
29
1

19
22
27
1

Based on:

29

N=1,349

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

N=1,546

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

Based on:

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

12/4-8/14

TOTAL
10/16-20/14

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/16-20/14

LIKELY VOTERS
10/16-20/14

60

60

60

44

50

52

51

59

50

Very favorable

43

45

46

25

27

28

31

32

29

Somewhat favorable

17

16

14

19

24

24

20

28

22

Total unfavorable

33

35

36

36

35

38

42

29

32

Somewhat unfavorable
Very unfavorable
Dont know enough to say
Refused/Not Answered

11
22
6
1

12
23
4
1

11
25
3
1

13
23
18
2

13
22
13
2

14
24
9
1

13
29
6
1

12
17
10
1

12
20
16
2

N=1,010

N=1,608

N=1,385

N=968

N=1,367

N=1,227

Based on:

30

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

10/3-7/13

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Total favorable

12/5-9/13

Michelle Obama

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

For each of the following individuals, please select if you have a favorable or unfavorable
impression of that person. If you dont know enough about the person to have an opinion,
you can say that too.

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

(Continued)
FAV1.

FAV2.

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

3/31-4/4/16

TOTAL
10/16-20/14

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/16-20/14

LIKELY VOTERS
10/16-20/14

TOTAL
9/25-29/14

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/25-29/14

LIKELY VOTERS
9/25-29/14

5/16-19/14

3/20-24/14

12/5-9/13

[GRID, RANDOMIZE FIRST TWO ITEMS]

Total favorable

49

49

49

48

46

45

42

49

49

47

47

43

43

Very favorable

21

21

22

19

16

16

16

17

18

19

15

15

15

Somewhat favorable

28

28

27

29

30

28

26

32

31

28

32

28

28

Total unfavorable

48

48

49

50

52

54

57

49

49

52

51

54

55

Somewhat unfavorable
Very unfavorable
Refused/Not Answered

18
29
3

19
30
3

18
31
2

22
28
3

23
29
2

23
31
1

20
36
1

25
23
3

25
25
2

22
30
1

25
26
3

25
29
3

27
28
2

N=1,076

N=1,608

N=1,385

N=968

N=1,845

N=1,541

N=958

N=1,354

N=1,012

N=1,367

The Democratic Party

3/31-4/4/16

TOTAL
10/16-20/14

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/16-20/14

LIKELY VOTERS
10/16-20/14

TOTAL
9/25-29/14

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/25-29/14

LIKELY VOTERS
9/25-29/14

5/16-19/14

3/20-24/14

12/5-9/13

N=1,212

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

N=1,349

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

N=1,546

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

Based on:

Total favorable

35

35

36

30

39

41

44

41

42

44

35

38

30

Very favorable

11

11

12

10

12

10

10

12

Somewhat favorable

24

24

24

24

29

31

33

31

32

32

28

29

25

Total unfavorable
Somewhat
unfavorable
Very unfavorable
Refused/Not Answered

61

61

61

67

58

58

54

56

56

54

62

60

68

27
34
5

28
33
4

27
34
4

27
40
3

32
26
3

32
26
2

29
25
1

30
26
3

30
26
2

26
28
2

34
28
3

34
26
3

37
31
3

N=1,076

N=1,608

N=1,385

N=968

N=1,845

N=1,541

N=958

N=1,354

N=1,012

N=1,367

The Republican Party

Based on:

31

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

ROTATE ASKING ORDER OF FEEL1A/FEEL1B:


FEEL1a. Please say if each of the following words describes or does not describe how you would feel if
Donald Trump is elected president.

32

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

7/7-11/16

N=1,476

N=1,251

N=1,009

47
49
4

46
50
3

47
50
3

48
48
4

46
50
4

47
50
3

48
48
4

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

N=1,694

N=1,476

N=1,251

N=1,009

7/7-11/16

7/7-11/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

N=1,694

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

N=1,212

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

N=1,349

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

N=1,546

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

Base:

26
70
4

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

Does describe
Does not describe
Refused/Not answered

31
65
4

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

Proud

29
67
4

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Base:

27
68
5

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Does describe
Does not describe
Refused/Not answered

27
69
5

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Angry

25
70
4

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Base:

25
70
5

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

Does describe
Does not describe
Refused/Not answered

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

Excited

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

[ITEMS RANDOMIZED]

20
75
5

20
76
4

21
75
4

23
72
5

24
72
4

26
70
4

22
74
4

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

N=1,694

N=1,476

N=1,251

N=1,009

33

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

7/7-11/16

Base:

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Does describe
Does not describe
Refused/Not answered

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Afraid

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

(Continued)
FEEL1a. Please say if each of the following words describes or does not describe how you would feel if
Donald Trump is elected president.

59
37
4

59
38
3

58
39
3

56
40
4

56
41
3

56
42
2

56
41
3

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

N=1,694

N=1,476

N=1,251

N=1,009

FEEL1b. Please say if each of the following words describes or does not describe how you would feel if
Hillary Clinton is elected president.

34

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

7/7-11/16

N=1,476

N=1,251

N=1,009

37
59
5

37
59
4

38
58
4

37
58
5

38
58
4

39
57
4

42
54
4

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

N=1,694

N=1,476

N=1,251

N=1,009

7/7-11/16

7/7-11/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

N=1,694

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

N=1,212

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

N=1,349

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

N=1,546

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

Base:

26
70
4

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

Does describe
Does not describe
Refused/Not answered

32
64
4

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

Proud

30
67
4

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Base:

30
66
4

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Does describe
Does not describe
Refused/Not answered

36
61
3

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Angry

34
63
3

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Base:

33
63
4

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

Does describe
Does not describe
Refused/Not answered

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

Excited

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

[ITEMS RANDOMIZED]

35
61
4

36
61
4

37
59
4

32
64
4

32
65
3

34
62
3

27
69
5

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

N=1,694

N=1,476

N=1,251

N=1,009

35

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

7/7-11/16

Base:

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Does describe
Does not describe
Refused/Not answered

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Afraid

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

(Continued)
FEEL1b. Please say if each of the following words describes or does not describe how you would feel if
Hillary Clinton is elected president.

41
55
4

42
55
4

42
54
4

43
53
5

44
53
4

44
53
3

48
49
4

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

N=1,694

N=1,476

N=1,251

N=1,009

HR6.

Regardless of which candidate you personally want to win, which candidate do you think is
more likely to win the presidential race in November?

36

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

7/7-11/16

Based on:

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Refused/Not Answered

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

Responses were rotated

73
24
3

74
24
2

74
25
2

63
33
4

62
34
3

63
34
3

63
34
3

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

N=1,694

N=1,476

N=1,251

N=1,009

Some questions held for future release.

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Based on:

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Yes
No
Refused/Not Answered

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

DEBATE1. Have you personally watched any of the presidential debates this year?

75
24
1

79
20
1

82
17
1

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

DEBATE2. Based on what youve seen or heard, which candidate do you think performed better in the
debates?

37

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Based on:

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
Refused/Not Answered

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

Order of candidates rotated

69
27
4

69
27
4

69
29
3

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

38

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Based on:

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

More likely to vote for Clinton


Made no difference either way
More likely to vote for Trump
Less likely to vote for either
Refused/Not Answered

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

DEBATE3. Overall, did the presidential debates make you more likely to vote for Clinton, more likely to
vote for Trump, or not have an impact on who you were planning on voting for?

34
37
16
11
2

33
39
17
10
2

34
40
18
7
1

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

Some questions held for future release.

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

3/31-4/4/16

2/11-15/16

10/15-19/15

7/9-13/15

1/29-2/2/15

12/4-8/14

TOTAL
10/16-20/14

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/16-20/14

LIKELY VOTERS
10/16-20/14

39

40

34

35

37

32

34

31

29

30

29

32

31

31

30

34

34

Independent

23

24

24

24

25

25

23

25

25

26

26

26

27

27

24

23

23

23

Republican

25

26

28

26

29

30

25

26

26

23

23

25

21

23

24

26

29

35

None of these
Refused/Not
Answered

14

14

10

18

12

14

19

18

17

19

17

18

19

12

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

N=1,694

N=1,476

N=1,251

N=1,009

N=1,076

N=1,033

N=1,007

N=1,027

N=1,004

N=1,077

N=1,045

N=1,010

N=1,608

N=1,385

N=968

Based on:

39

4/23-27/15

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

37

12/3-7/15

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Democrat

7/7-11/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or none of these?

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

PID1.

40

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

3/31-4/4/16

2/11-15/16

12/3-7/15

10/15-19/15

7/9-13/15

4/23-27/15

1/29-2/2/15

12/4-8/14

TOTAL
10/16-20/14

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/16-20/14

LIKELY VOTERS
10/16-20/14

48

49

50

45

46

47

42

47

43

42

41

42

44

42

41

41

44

42

37

39

40

34

35

37

32

34

31

29

30

29

32

31

31

30

34

34

10

10

37

39

41

37

40

42

36

36

37

35

37

37

34

35

38

37

41

47

25

26

28

26

29

30

25

26

26

23

23

25

21

23

24

26

29

35

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

11

14

10

12

15

14

14

14

14

14

14

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

N=1,694

N=1,476

N=1,251

N=1,009

N=1,076

N=1,033

N=1,007

N=1,027

N=1,004

N=1,077

N=1,045

N=1,010

N=1,608

N=1,385

N=968

7/7-11/16

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Based on:

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Total
Democrat
Democrat
Independent
lean
Democratic
None lean
Democratic
Total
Republican
Republican
Independent
lean
Republican
None lean
Republican
Independent
dont lean
None dont
lean
Refused/Not
answered

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

PID1/i. Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or none of these?


[IF INDEPENDENT OR NONE, OR REFUSAL, ASK:] Do you lean more toward the Democrats or
the Republicans?

N=1,546

N=1,349

N=1,212

N=1,694

N=1,476

N=1,251

N=1,009

N=1,076

N=1,033

N=1,007

N=1,027

DM5.

LIKELY VOTERS
10/16-20/14

18
35
44

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/16-20/14

19
33
43

TOTAL
10/16-20/14

21
32
42

20
34
43
3

21
33
43
3

19
33
45
3

20
35
40
5

21
33
42

21
36
42

20
41
39

N=1,004

N=1,077

N=1,045

N=1,010

N=1,608

N=1,385

N=968

4/23-27/15

22
30
44

12/4-8/14

19
33
44

7/9-13/15

22
35
42

10/15-19/15

21
34
43

12/3-7/15

LIKELY VOTERS
9/15-19/16

22
31
44

2/11-15/16

REGISTERED VOTERS
9/15-19/16

25
36
37

3/31-4/4/16

TOTAL
9/15-19/16

24
34
40

7/7-11/16

LIKELY VOTERS
10/20-24/16

24
32
41

1/29-2/2/15

Based on:

REGISTERED VOTERS
10/20-24/16

Liberal
Conservative
Moderate
Refused/Not
answered

Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a?

TOTAL
10/20-24/16

G11b.

Which one of the following best describes where you live?


Urban area
Suburban area
Rural area
Refused/Not Answered

26
50
23
1
N=1,546

Based on:

INS1.

The next questions are about your personal health insurance. Please include health insurance
obtained through employment or purchased directly as well as government programs like
Medicare and Medicaid that provide medical care or help pay medical bills.

41

1/29-2/2/15

12/4-8/14

5/16-19/14

3/20-24/14

10/16-20/14

4/23-27/15

88
10

89
9

89
9

87
10

88
10

88
10

88
9

87
10

86
11

86
12

82
15

85
12

N=1,546

N=1,694

N=1,009

N=1,076

N=1,033

N=1,007

N=1,027

N=1,004

N=1,077

N=1,045

N=1,010

N=1,608

N=1,354

N=1,012

TOTAL

7/9-13/15

10/15-19/15

88
10

7/7-11/16

89
10

9/15-19/16

12/3-7/15

Based on:

2/11-15/16

Yes
No
Refused/Not
answered

3/31-4/4/16

10/20-24/16

Are you currently covered by any kind of health insurance or some other kind of health care
plan or not?

DM12.

Do you consider yourself a born-again or evangelical Christian, or not?

Yes, born-again/evangelical
No
Refused/Not Answered
Based on:

DM13.

N=1,546

What is your religious preference?


Protestant
Catholic
Mormon
Jewish
Muslim
Other religion
Dont belong to religious denomination
Refused/Not Answered
Based on:

DM14.

30
68
2

27
25
2
3
1
12
28
2
N=1,546

[IF OTHER RELIGION IN DM13] Do you consider yourself a Christian, or not?


Yes, a Christian
No, not a Christian
Refused/Not Answered
Based on:

91
9
1
N=177

DMCELL. How many different landline telephone numbers, if any, are there in your home? This includes
listed or unlisted numbers. Please dont count cell phones or landlines used ONLY for faxes or
modems.
0
1
2
3
4
5 or more
Refused/Not Answered
Based on:

42

48
45
3
1
1
*
3
N=1,546

PPEDUCAT. (4 category)
Less than high school
High school
Some college
Bachelors degree or higher
Based on:

9
32
29
31
N=1,546

PPETHM
White, Non-Hispanic
Black, Non-Hispanic
Other, Non-Hispanic
Hispanic
2+ Races, Non-Hispanic
Based on:

67
11
3
16
3
N=1,546

PPGENDER
Male

43

48

Female

52

Based on:

N=1,546

PPWORK
Working as a paid employee
Working self-employed
Not working on temporary layoff from a job
Not working looking for work
Not working retired
Not working disabled
Not working - other
Based on:

56
8
*
6
19
4
7
N=1,546

PPAGE
Age group:
18-29
30-49
50-64
65+
Based on:

DM20.

21
34
26
20
N=1,546

And in which group does your total household [IF SINGLE: PERSONAL] income fall?
Under $10,000

$10,000 to under $20,000

$20,000 to under $30,000

$30,000 to under $40,000

10

$40,000 to under $50,000

$50,000 to under $75,000

20

$75,000 to under $100,000

16

$100,000 to under $150,000

18

$150,000 or more

15

Based on:

N=1,546

CENSUS REGION:
Northeast

18

Midwest

21

South

38

West

23

Based on:

44

N=1,546

AP-GfK Poll Methodology


The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted October 20 to 24, 2016 by GfK Public Affairs &
Corporate Communications a division of GfK Custom Research North America. This poll is based on a
nationally-representative probability sample of 1,546 general population adults age 18 or older.
The survey was conducted using the web-enabled KnowledgePanel, a probability-based panel designed
to be representative of the U.S. population. At inception participants were chosen scientifically by a
random selection of telephone numbers and since 2009 through Address-based sampling using the post
offices delivery sequence file. Persons in these households are then invited to join and participate in the
web-enabled KnowledgePanel. For those who agree to participate, but do not already have Internet
access, GfK provides at no cost a laptop and ISP connection. People who already have computers and
Internet services are permitted to participate using their own equipment. Panelists then receive unique
log-in information for accessing surveys online, and then are sent emails throughout each month inviting
them to participate in research.
The data were weighted to account for probabilities of selection, as well as age within sex, education,
race, and phone type. The phone type targets came from the fall, 2012 MRI Consumer Survey. The other
targets came from the March, 2012 Supplement of the Current Population Survey.
The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.75 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for
results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results
based on sub-samples. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest
whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than
100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total significantly more than 100%,
depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent. The cooperation rate for
this poll was 49%.
Trend data are displayed for selected questions from previous AP-GfK Polls that were conducted using
telephone interviews with nationally-representative probability samples of adults age 18 or older. Details
about all AP-GfK Polls are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com.

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