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The analyses, their interpretation, and related information contained herein are made
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described in this report and are based on third party sources and data reasonably
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third party sources or data.
As with any attempt to estimate future events, the forecasts, projections, conclusions,
and other information included herein are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, and
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Agenda
Moving Forward
Agenda
Moving Forward
Source: The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2016 (November 2015)
Profit Margins
**Europe includes European Union -28 as well as Switzerland , Iceland and Norway.
**Other mature economies are Australia, Canada, Iceland, Israel, Hong Kong, South Korea, New Zealand, Singapore, and Taiwan Province of China.
***Southeast Europe includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro, and Turkey.
Source: The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2016 (November 2015)
Agenda
Moving Forward
Brazil
Mexico
Bangladesh
India
Turkey
Argentina
Russia
Poland
Algeria
Saudi Arabia
Colombia
Indonesia
South Africa
Egypt
Chile
Philippines
Nigeria
Pakistan
Kazakhstan
21 countries
China
Pharmerging Definition
GDP per capita less than $30,000
>$1Bn US$ or LCUS$ in absolute
5yr growth (2014-2019)
Vietnam
Tier
definition
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
New to Pharmerging
No longer
Pharmerging
Ukraine
Venezuela
Romania
Thailand
2010-2015 US$
2010-2015 US$
893
748
30%
893
748
24%
20%
23%
77%
70%
80%
2010
2015
2010
Specialty
Traditional
76%
2015
Biologic
Small Molecule
10
75% of global growth comes from five TAs, with Hepatitis &
Oncology alone accounting for ~ 50% of growth
Global: Highest growth Therapy Areas
Absolute three year growth LCUS$ Bn (2013-2015)
0
Hepatitis
61%
Oncologics
54%
Antidiabetics
73%
Anticoagulants
52%
Autoimmune
69%
HIV
62%
Respiratory
69%
Mental Health
92%
23%
23%
6%
18.1
8.7
8.4
20%
6.7
4.1
75%
MS
Ocular Antineovasc.
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28
3.3
26.9
Share of
global growth
2013-2015
28%
19%
9%
9%
7%
4%
3%
2.6
3%
2.5
2%
1.7
73% of
global
growth
US
EU5
Japan
Pharmerging
All Others
1%
Source: IMS Health MIDAS Q4 2015; Rx only; Respiratory combined with other Respiratory
11
12%
Specialty
17%
11%
5%
10%
6%
17%
9%
25%
Specialty products
Abs growth by region
35%
37%
Share of
absolute
growth by
region
(LCUS$)
4%
4%
11%
31%
2006-2010
RoW
Pharmerging
8%
41%
Japan
EU5
2006-2010
20%
Traditional
2011-2015
41%
34%
58%
2011-2015
11%
58%
6% 3%
US
Traditional products
Abs growth by region
3%
37%
28%
-1%
2006-2010
2011-2015
Source: IMS Health MIDAS Q4 2015; IMS The Institute for Healthcare Informatics; Market prognosis March 2016; Sept
2015 forecasts used for all countries outside of top 52
12
30%
425
554
643
18%
23%
33%
82%
77%
67%
2005
2010
2015
54
9%
118
12%
165
13%
Specialty drivers
Oncology makes up
roughly 40% of all
specialty sales in
pharmerging
91%
88%
87%
2005
2010
2015
Specialty
Traditional
24%
21%
20%
15%
10%
7%
5%
4%
India
Philippines
Indonesia
Vietnam
Brazil
Mexico
S. Africa
China
Poland
Russia
Turkey
0%
Kazakhstan
Source: IMS Health MIDAS MAT Q4 2015; Excludes countries with no hospital panels: Algeria, Argentina, Bangladesh,
Chile, Colombia, Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi; Contains Brazil and Mexico non-retail panels
13
Agenda
Moving Forward
14
Japan
1.400
10%
Germany
6%-9%
(-1)%-2%
3%-6%
1.200
8%
1.000
800
6%
600
Growth
US
12%
4%
400
2%
200
0
UK*
4%-7%
Italy
2%-5%
France
(-2)%-1%
Spain
2%-5%
Canada
3%-6%
Developed
4%-7%
Pharmerging Markets
CAGR 2016-20 LCUS$
China
5%-8%
Brazil
7%-10%
India
10%-13%
Russia
6%-9%
Turkey
12%-15%
Mexico
2%-5%
Pharmerging
LCUS$
6%-9%
Pharmerging
US$
4%-7%
0%
2015
2016
Global sales
2017
2018
Developed growth
2019
2020
At par with region CAGR
Pharmerging growth
*Subject to clawback
Source: IMS Market Prognosis March 2016; at ex-manufacturer price levels, not including rebates and discounts. Contains
Audited + Unaudited data; Sept 2015 forecasts used for all countries outside of top 52
15
2016 - 2020
RoW
11%
6%
9%
8%
12%
Rest of World
8%
8%
Pharmerging
T3 & T4
US
7%
Pharmerging T3 & T4
13%
19%
1%
8%
BRI
BRI
44%
6%
China
4%
8%
Japan
China
11%
EU5
55%
41%
Canada
6%
US
Japan
13%
EU5
2%
Canada
Source: IMS Market Prognosis March 2016; at ex-manufacturer price levels, not including rebates and discounts. Contains
Audited + Unaudited data; Sept 2015 forecasts used for all countries outside of top 52
16
Pharmerging
Sales in
CAGR
2019 (US$) 2015-2019
Sales in
CAGR
2019 (US$) 2015-2019
Oncologics
$80-90Bn
7-10%
Antibiotics
$19-22Bn
2-5%
Diabetes
$74-84Bn
12-15%
Pain
$19-22Bn
5-8%
Autoimmune
$52-62Bn
11-14%
Hypertension
$13-16Bn
4-7%
Pain
$33-39Bn
(-2)-1%
$11-14Bn
9-12%
Viral Hepatitis
$28-33Bn
9-12%
$11-14Bn
9-12%
Respiratory
$28-33Bn
(-1)-2%
$10-12Bn
11-14%
$9-11Bn
6-9%
$7-9Bn
13-16%
Oncologics
Diabetes
Antiulcerants
Dermatology
Anticoagulants
$25-28Bn
(-6)-(-3)%
Cholesterol
Dermatology
$24-27Bn
6-9%
HIV Antivirals
$21-24Bn
4-7%
Anticoagulants
$7-7Bn
4-7%
Mental Health
$21-24Bn
1-4%
Mental Health
$5-7Bn
7-10%
Specialty
Other Cardio.
Traditional
17
Agenda
Moving Forward
18
2
Setup
Increasing
Consumption
Specialization
Volatility
3
Scale Up
Reform
19
2
Setup
3
Scale up
Reform
Consolidation
Globalization
Stability
20
2
Setup
Special Purpose
Vehicles
Improving Standards
Value based
reimbursement
3
Scale Up
Reform
21
GMP Standards
established
Pricing Mechanisms for
Pharmaceutical
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Reimbursement Cap
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008*
2009*
Source: http://www.doh.gov.tw/CHT2006/DM
22
As a result the industry has been through the three stages and
is now undergoing further reform
BNHI Income and Expenditure Gap & Increasing Trend
Consolidation amongst
domestic cos
Decline in field force
numbers
Regulator model transition to collaborative working model base on common understanding of mutual challenges
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008*
2009*
Source: http://www.doh.gov.tw/CHT2006/DM
23
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Q3 2004
Q3 2005
Q3 2006
Q3 2007
Q3 2008
NEVER PROTECTED
Q3 2009
Q3 2010
NO LONGER PROTECTED
Q3 2011
Q3 2012
PROT UNKNOWN
Q3 2013
Q3 2014
Q3 2015
PROTECTED
24
Agenda
Moving Forward
25
251
Self-employed
Total population
18
20
108
Jamkesda
31
Jamkesmas
76
Poor /
Near poor
Askes
TNI/POLRI
Jamsostek
Private
insurance
Privately
employed
Secondary Care
Specialized vehicles
26
2
Setup
Increasing
Consumption
Specialization
Volatility
3
Scale Up
Reform
27
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Public Hospitals
Hypertension
(Average Dosage Units)
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016
Branded Gx
Unbranded Gx
Branded Gx
Unbranded Gx
Originator
Total
Originator
Total
28
Oncology
35%
30%
25%
Diabetes
Asthma /
COPD
20%
Hematology
15%
Dyslipidemia
Intravenous
Solution
Cardiac
Disease
10%
5%
Analgesics
Annual growth Pre-BPJS
0%
0%
-5%
-10%
5%
10%
Inflammatory
Disease
15%
GI Disease
20%
25%
30%
35%
Antibiotics
29
70.000
16%
DOMESTIC
FREE SALES;
31,9%
14%
13,2%
60.000
50.000
9,9%
ETHICAL
62.4%
10%
40.000
8,1%
MNC FREE
SALES; 5,7%
8%
62.839
30.000
DOMESTIC
ETHICAL
BRANDED;
29,0%
DOMESTIC
UNBRANDED
GENERIC;
11,0%
64.279
57.162
52.868
MNC
UNBRANDED
GENERIC;
0,3%
FREE
SALES
37.6%
12%
MNC ETHICAL
BRANDED;
22,1%
6%
46.686
20.000
4%
2,3%
10.000
2%
0%
MAT 2Q12MAT 2Q13MAT 2Q14MAT 2Q15MAT 2Q16
MNC
DOM
TOTAL
2.3%
5.3%
1.2%
ETHICAL
4.8%
7.4%
3.4%
ETHICAL BRANDED
3.5%
7.4%
0.7%
UNBRANDED GENERIC
11.4%
13.3%
11.4%
-1.5%
-2.2%
-1.4%
OTC
30
Agenda
Moving Forward
31
Slow Progress to
Scale Up > 10 yrs
Setup Stage
Routine Progress to
Scale Up ~ 5 yrs
Rapid Progress to
Scale Up < 5 yrs
32
Regulator-Industry
interaction Platforms
2
Expansion in
source of funding
3
Use of
Information
Technology
Infrastructure
Scale up
Academic
Participation
33