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Speech
Indian Economy: Progress and Prospects
1690
Speech
Indian Economy: Progress and Prospects
Speech
Indian Economy: Progress and Prospects
1991-2000
2001- 2010
2004-2008
2009-2011
(Percentage Change)
1.
5.7
3.2
5.7
5.6
7.1
7.3
2.4
7.3
8.0
9.0
8.9
5.0
9.0
10.0
10.1
7.8
2.3
6.7
7.1
9.5
2.
4.8
6.3
7.2
6.4
5.8
10.2
7.4
5.6
15.7
7.9
10.6
5.8
28.4
20.1
51.5
19.4
20.0
60.6
18.9
20.1
61.1
14.9
20.1
65.0
(Per cent)
3.
Share in GDP
3.1 Agriculture
3.2 Industry
3.3 Services
1692
1993-94
1999-00
2004-05 2009-10
1. Agriculture
1.1 Self-Employed
1.2 Regular Wage/
Salaried Employee
1.3 Casual Labour
210.7
126.6
225.4
130.2
238.8
153.2
212.6
127.9
2.9
81.2
3.2
91.9
2.6
83.0
1.9
82.9
2. Non-Agriculture
2.1 Self-Employed
2.2 Regular Wage/
Salaried Employee
2.3 Casual Labour
115.8
52.1
140.0
62.8
169.5
79.0
187.4
76.0
40.2
23.4
47.9
29.3
55.6
34.8
60.5
50.9
Total
326.5
365.4
408.2
400.0
Speech
Indian Economy: Progress and Prospects
19912000
20012010
20042008
20092011
22.9
39.2
40.8
49.8
41.9
78.7
83.5
106.5
(US $ billion)
Year
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
Inward
Outward
Net FDI
to India
Outward/
inward
(%)
4.0
6.1
5.0
4.3
6.0
8.9
22.7
34.7
37.7
33.1
23.4
0.8
1.4
1.8
1.9
2.3
5.9
15.0
18.8
17.9
14.4
16.2
3.3
4.7
3.2
2.4
3.7
3.0
7.7
15.9
19.8
18.8
7.1
18.8
22.7
36.1
44.7
38.0
65.9
66.2
54.2
47.4
43.3
69.4
1.
2.
1991-2000
2001- 2010
2004-2008
2009-2011
Balance of Payments
1.1 Merchandise Exports (% change)
1.2 Merchandise Imports (% change)
1.3 Trade Balance/GDP (%)
1.4 Invisible Balance/GDP (%)
1.5 Current Account Balance/GDP (%)
1.6 Net Capital Flows/GDP(%)
1.7 FDI to India (US$ billion)
1.8 Reserve Changes (BoP basis) (US$ billion)
[(Increase (-)/Decrease (+)]
8.6
9.6
-2.8
1.6
-1.3
2.2
1.6
17.7
19.5
-5.3
4.8
-0.5
3.4
16.3
25.4
32.3
-5.4
5.1
-0.3
4.6
15.3
15.8
14.6
-8.6
6.1
-2.6
2.7
31.4
-3.3
-22.9
-40.3
-2.1
29.0
24.9
19.0
8.8
17.7
8.3
18.6
4.7
1693
Speech
Indian Economy: Progress and Prospects
Table 8: Inflation
19912000
20012010
20042008
20092011
6.8
3.0
5.9
1.6
7.2
3.4
4.8
0.8
7.6
2.3
3.6
-0.2
7.4
4.4
5.8
2.6
2. State Finances
2.1 Gross Fiscal Deficit
2.2 Outstanding Liabilities
3.1
22.3
3.1
29.3
2.7
30.1
2.6
24.8
4.2
7.7
2.7
63.2
4.4
7.8
2.2
75.1
2.7
6.3
0.7
76.5
4.5
8.5
3.7
68.5
Item
20012010
20042008
20092010
5.5
5.2
7.3
7.1
13.3
7.2
8.1
10.2
10.6
5.4
5.8
8.9
6.8
4.0
5.0
4.0
9.5
9.8
5.9
6.2
5.0
5.5
10.6
12.5
Policy Challenges
The draft approach paper for the Twelfth Five-Year
Plan (2012-17) released in August 2011 targets an
annual GDP growth rate of 9 per cent. This is
Item
19912000
20012010
20042008
20092011
15.6
17.2
15.4
16.0
17.5
22.4
19.6
18.6
26.7
12.3
17.4
18.7
20.9
17.7
13.3
16.2
20.6
49.9
37.7
73.6
39.5
74.3
49.7
84.6
(Percentage change)
23.0
17.7
9.9
7.8
3.8
1.5
30.7
23.1
11.0
12.1
6.3
1.3
33.4
23.4
11.3
12.1
7.2
2.9
33.0
23.6
11.3
12.4
8.0
1.3
24.4
31.2
34.3
35.5
5.0
4.4
3.7
4.9
1694
20092011
20042008
19912000
20012010
19912000
1.
2.
3.
4.
5. Credit-GDP Ratio
6. Broad Money-GDP Ratio
Speech
Indian Economy: Progress and Prospects
Speech
Indian Economy: Progress and Prospects
1696
Conclusion
Envisioning Indias emergence as a major
economic power in the world, Dr. Manmohan Singh
in his Union Budget 1991-92 speech that launched
wide-ranging economic reforms had quoted Victor
Hugos saying, no power on earth can stop an idea
whose time has come. Ever since, there has been no
looking back as India launched wide-ranging structural
reforms and has made significant economic progress
over the past two decades. Indias industrial
environment has become more competitive and open,
infrastructural gaps have been sought to be bridged
through public-private initiatives with both domestic
and foreign sources of funding, current account has
become fully convertible while capital account is
virtually free for non-residents. The policy
environment has become more enabling with rulebased commitment on fiscal policy and considerable
instrument independence for operation of monetary
policy. As statutory pre-emptions were reduced and
interest rates were deregulated, banks gained
operational autonomy for commercial lending. As a
result, Indias per capita income, which had taken four
decades to double by 1991, doubled thereafter in 15
years and is likely to double again in 10 years by 201718. If India could maintain the current pace of growth,
it will lift millions out of poverty and enrich the global
economy. While India has come a long way,
maintaining the current pace would itself be
challenging and require continued reform efforts.