COMSATS INSTITUTE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY, ISLAMABAD.

DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
FINAL SEMESTER PROJECT
THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE ECONOMY OF PAKISTAN

SUBMITTED TO: MADAM SANA ASGHAR

SUBMITTED BY:
TAHREEM HASSAN (FA09-BBA-124)
ROMAH SAMUEL (FA09-BBA-077)
SAMIYA KAZMI (FA09-BBA-081)
ZAINAB UMAR REHMAN (FA09-BBA-106)
DATE OF SUBMISSION: 28TH DECEMBER, 2010

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction........................................................................................................................3
Background........................................................................................................................3
Summary............................................................................................................................4
Climatic topologies of Pakistan:.......................................................................................6
Topography of Geographical Regions of Pakistan and their economic significance:
.........................................................................................................................................7
Economic Significance of Northern Highlands:-........................................................8
Economic Significance of Indus River Plain:-............................................................8
Economic significance of rivers:-................................................................................9
Varying climate in regions of Pakistan and its economic outcomes:...............................9
Punjab:.........................................................................................................................9
Sindh:.........................................................................................................................10
Khyber Pakhtoon Khawa:..........................................................................................11
Balochistan:...............................................................................................................12
Literature review:............................................................................................................12
Robert Mendelsohn Yale University, Climate Change Impacts on Southeast Asian
Agriculture, November 24, 2005...................................................................................12
Shakeel Ahmed Ramay, The News on 2 October 2010.................................................13
Ned Haluzan, MIT, Global warming will have huge impact on worlds economy.......14
Ned Haluzan, Climate change and its global impact.....................................................14
South Asia lacks long-term climate change data, T. V. Padma, 3rd December 2010 | EN
.......................................................................................................................................15
Conclusion........................................................................................................................18
References.........................................................................................................................20

Introduction
In this report, we have highlighted the major regions of Pakistan, their climatic
situation and how their persisting climate contributes to the economic
activity of that region. Though other economic activities exist in Pakistan,
agriculture is the largest sector and majorly affected by changes in climate.
Hence through out our report, we have mainly focused on agricultural areas.
We have started off with initially describing the general topographies of
Pakistan and their economic significance, we then moved on to describing the
provinces of Pakistan and their contribution to the economy in terms of
agriculture. In our analysis we have then mentioned how these economic
contributions are being affected by the recent changes in climate and how
they will be impacted upon in the near future due to increasing diversities in
climate. Further to emphasize the significance of climate change we have
studied a few articles which we have then analyzed in relation to Pakistan.
We have then concluded our report, narrowing our findings to the impact of
climate change on Pakistan and the significant and necessary measures to be
taken in order to encourage the positive aspects of climate change along with
minimizing the drastic effects of climate change on Pakistans economy.

Background
Changes in ocean circulation, in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse
gases or haze particles, and in the ice cover, have been invoked to explain the
drastic change in weather and temperature patterns over the years. Like all over
the world, in Pakistan too, these changes have resulted from the effects of human
activities and the destruction of the earth's protective ozone layer. Although human

induced warming is among the most pervasive threats to the web of life, the
burning of fossil fuels, coal, gas and oil, is dangerous too. This carbon blankets the
earth, trapping its heat, and causing global warming. This global warming is
damaging Pakistan's environment, as well. Among the impacts felt and seen are
biodiversity loss, rise in the sea level, increased draught, shifts in the weather patterns,
increased flooding, changes in freshwater supply and an increase in extreme weather
events. These could also lead to alterations in forests and crop yields. Not only that,
climatic changes could also affect human health, animals and many types of ecosystems.

Summary
Over the past century, human agricultural and industrial activities have led to the
buildup of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. These gases are trapping yet
more of the earth's outgoing radiation, leading to an enhanced greenhouse
effect and a warmer earth.
Taking unified global action against climate change, however, has proven
contentious. Also due to the unpredictable nature and the limited knowledge
we have about atmospheric processes and climate change, scientists are
having difficulty coming up with precise predictions about future climate
changes.
In our report we have identified and analyzed the effect of these particular changes solely
on the economy of Pakistan.
Pakistan can be divided into four broad temperature regions:

Hot summer and mild winter: 32 C (90 F) or more in summer and 10 C

(50 F) to 21 C (70 F) in winter.

Warm summer and mild winter: 21 C (70 F) - 32 C (90 F) in summer and

10 C (50 F) to 21 C (70 F) in winter.

Warm summer and cool winter: 21 C (70 F) - 32 C (90 F) in summer and

00 C (32 F) - 10 C (50 F) in winter.

Mild summer and cool/cold winter: Summer temperature between 10 C

(50 F) and 21 C (70 F) and winter temperature between 00 C (32 F) and
10 C (50 F)

On basis of these temperature ranges, in our report we have highlighted those areas
which lie particularly in these temperature ranges and our contributors to the
economy in form of agricultural production. We have mentioned different regions and
cities and the crops most commonly produced in these areas along with the affect on
their production due to the past and the upcoming climate changes. In our report we
have further identified the sources and factors that actually lead toward the resulting
climate change, excess carbon dioxide emission being one of the most prominent of
the many reasons.
The topic concerning climate change is quite vast in terms of its causes and possible
impacts; hence in our report our major focus is aligned towards climatic effect on
agriculture as it covers the greater portion of Pakistans economy. Generally climate
does not necessary affect only agriculture however it affects agriculture the most, and
especially when it comes to Pakistan.
Furthermore in our report we have include the possible policies and measures that
Pakistan can take in order to over come the outcomes of climate change, which
mainly includes building up infrastructure to make use of the climatic calamities
like floods. Instead of treating it as a disaster, making use of the immense water
supply for irrigation and sustaining electricity shortage. Also we have mentioned
alternate possibilities of handling climate change which involves bringing about
environmental changes as well as individual contributions, things such as
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avoiding deforestation and reducing consumption of goods resulting in emission

of harmful gases.
Moreover we have brought overpopulation in focus as being one of the reasons for
the climate change and its drastic effects. Overpopulation leads to increased
consumption of harmful emitters, which leads to problems like global warming which
in turn results in agricultural activity which then hinders the economy.
Even though industrial sector results in factors causing this climate change, and also
bears consequences of the changes, but since contribution of the industrial sector is
quite low in the economy of Pakistan, hence we have not focused on this aspect as
such. However if taking this into consideration, then industrial sector is the major
contributor to the causes that eventually lead to the climate change which then affects
the economy of Pakistan.
At the end we have then categorized climate change as the factor which should be
taken into consideration when assessing a countrys economy and if Pakistan wishes
to enhance its economy it should focus its policies on climate changes along with
other factors.
Climatic topologies of Pakistan:
Like the rest of the world Pakistan is also facing a great climatic change and hence is a
victim of many disasters. The growing global warming and excess carbon production has
resulted in the melting of ice caps which have direct links with oceans and seas. Pakistan
lies in the temperate zone and hence faces all the four seasons through out the year. Due
to this geographical positioning Pakistan faces many economic challenges also. The
climatic topology implies that with the growing climatic change Pakistan has to face
various technological challenges and hence becomes unable to meet the needs of the
people dwelling in it.

Topography of Geographical Regions of Pakistan and their economic significance:

The geography of Pakistan is mainly described as one of the best geographical
composition among the world. Pakistan is not a land locked country and hence is blessed
with many physical blessings. The location of Pakistan also gives it geographical
compactness because of its natural features. The economic significance of these areas will
be described below:Pakistan is mainly divided into three major geographic areas:

The northern highlands;

The Indus River plain, with two major subdivisions corresponding roughly to the
provinces of Punjab and Sindh;

The Baluchistan Plateau.

All the Rivers of Pakistan, i.e., Sindhu, Ravi, Chenab, Jhelum, and Sutlej start
from India.

Whereas, some geographers designate additional major regions:

The mountain ranges along the western border with Afghanistan are
sometimes described separately from the Baluchistan Plateau,

On the eastern border with India, south of the Sutlej River, the Thar Desert
may be considered separately from the Indus Plain.

Economic Significance of Northern Highlands:

The economy of region is based on traditional route of trade through Silk Road.
China Trade organization is the leading economic forum through which most of
barter trade activity makes a phenomenal change in the general economical
outlook of the area. Rest of the economy is supported by mainly agriculture and
tourism.

Less than one-fifth of Pakistan's land area has the potential for intensive
agricultural use. Nearly all of the arable land is actively cultivated, but outputs are
low by world standards.

Cultivation is much less in the northern mountains, that enables Pakistan to feed
its population under usual climatic conditions.

Economic Significance of Indus River Plain:

Both upper and lower Indus plain are the most important agricultural areas in
Pakistan.

The plain areas produce the bulk of food grains, agricultural raw, material, vast
market, food products and manufactured goods.

Economic significance of rivers:Rivers of Pakistan help in the growth of the forests as well as controls the climatic
conditions. The rivers keep the temperature on the lower side by helping in the rainfall.
The rivers are also an important part of the Pakistan Tourism.

It is the back bone of the agriculture of Pakistan as it provides irrigation.

It provides whole of the Pakistan with fresh water.

The dams are being built on these rivers.

The fisheries are also a great source of income.

Varying climate in regions of Pakistan and its economic outcomes:

As Pakistan is an agriculture based country, 25% of its area is under cultivation and is
watered by the biggest irrigation system, river Indus. As Pakistan is an agricultural
country, it has 23% contribution in the GDP and it employs 44% of the labor force. If we
analyze the farm output of the Muslim countries, Pakistan stands 5 th in number and
moreover it is the 5th largest milk producer, and 2nd largest chickpea producer. The main
focus of Pakistan is on wheat, sugarcane, cotton and rice. They all account for more than
75% of the total output. The four provinces account for varying contribution to the
economy. However these contributions are at times hindered by the altering climatic
changes.
Punjab:
In Punjab side, maximum agriculture is practiced. Cotton is considered as the silver fiber
of cash crop. Fruits of Pakistan are famous all over the world. Cash crops basically earn
foreign exchange for us. The crops are grown in almost in every part of the country and
farmers grow them willingly. To save the major cash crop of Pakistan, cotton,
government provides farmers with pesticides and insecticides and moreover provides
them with large amount of water to irrigate. NWFP area of Pakistan is famous for tobacco
crops. They are mostly exported to the European countries.

The Punjab area, which constitutes 70% of the population, experiences fairly cool
winters accompanied by rainfall. Due to the climatic changes since 1970, weather
patterns have changed. They sometimes cause excess of rainfall which results in
the floods.

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Climatically Punjab has 3 main seasons as under, hot weather, rainy season, and
cold weather. Punjab has contributed 59% in Pakistans economy through
agriculture.

Sindh:

The climate of Sindh mostly constitutes of monsoon. As it lies in a subtropical

region, the climate is neither too hot nor too cold, but due to the monsoon, it
experiences heavy rainfall which affects the crops and also the citys
infrastructure. Temperatures frequently rise above 46 C between May and
August, and the minimum average temperature of 2 C occurs during December
and January. The annual rainfall averages about seven inches, falling mainly
during July and August Hence, instead of being a dividend for the economy, it
becomes a bomb for it and the province faces floods.

Sindh has the 2nd largest economy in Pakistan. Historically, Sindh's contribution
to Pakistan's GDP has been between 30% to 32.7%. Its share in the service sector
has ranged from 21% to 27.8% and in the agriculture sector from 21.4% to 27.7%.
Performance wise, its best sector is the manufacturing sector, where its share has
ranged from 36.7% to 46.5%. Since 1972, Sindh's GDP has expanded by 3.6
times. Endowed with coastal access.

Agriculture is very important in Sindh with cotton, rice, wheat, sugar cane,
bananas, and mangoes as the most important crops. Sindh is the richest province
in natural resources of gas, petrol, and coal.

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Khyber Pakhtoon Khawa:

Climate of Khyber Pakhtoon Khawa varies. It is basically a mountainous area so

it generally remains dry. Not as such agricultural activities can be carried out here
as the mountains are covered with snow and no farming can be carried out there.
It generally contributes less towards the economy.

Rainfall also varies widely. Although large parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are
typically dry, the province also contains the wettest parts of Pakistan in its eastern
fringe.

Currently, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa accounts for 10% of Pakistan's GDP, 20% of

Pakistans mining output and since 1972, it has seen its economy grow in size by
3.6 times.

Agriculture remains important and the main cash crops include wheat, maize,
Tobacco (in Swabi ), rice, sugar beets, as well as various fruits are grown in the
province.

Balochistan:

Very cold winters and hot summers characterize the climate of the upper
highlands. Summers are hot and dry, especially the arid zones of Chaghai and
Kharan districts. Winters are mild on the plains with the temperature never
falling below the freezing point. The desert climate is characterised by hot and

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very arid conditions. Occasionally strong windstorms make these areas very
inhospitable

According to provincial accounts of Pakistan, Baluchistans share of the national

economy has ranged between 3.7% to 4.9%. Since 1972, Baluchistans economy
has grown in size by 2.7 times. The economy of the province is largely based
upon the production of natural gas, coal and minerals. Outside Quetta, the
infrastructure of the province is gradually developing but still lags far behind
other parts of Pakistan. Tourism remains limited but has increased due to the
exotic appeal of the province. Limited farming in the east as well as fishing along
the Arabian Sea coastline is other form of income and sustenance for the local
populations.

Literature review:
Robert Mendelsohn Yale University, Climate Change Impacts on Southeast Asian
Agriculture, November 24, 2005
This article discusses the lack of awareness regarding climatic impacts on a country.
Despite the extensive interest in measuring the economic impacts of climate
change in general, there is very little empirical research on Asia. This study
analyzes results from India and selected experiments to the rest of Southeast Asia
in order to measure the impact of climate change on agriculture in this region. The
study examines a variety of climate change predictions and climate response
functions. The impacts could vary from a small benefit to a loss of 37% of
agricultural GDP by 2100 and extensive research is needed to refine the estimates
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of impacts in this region and to identify potential adaptation options for farmers
and governments. According the article, over the last 10 years, a great deal has
been learned about the impacts of climate change on market and nonmarket
sectors. For example, the market sectors expected to be vulnerable to climate
change are agriculture, coastal development, energy, forestry, and water and the
key nonmarket sectors are terrestrial ecosystems, human health, and undeveloped
coasts.
Shakeel Ahmed Ramay, the News on 2 October 2010
This article highlights the effect of recent floods on the economy of Pakistan. The
devastation caused by recent floods was to an alarming extent and it will take time before
the actual loss and sufferings of the people can be gauged. Along with the human
suffering, it resulted in immense affect on the agricultural sector, which will have longrun impacts. Standing crops have been washed away and millions of livestock lost.
Agriculture is the prime source of income in major parts of the flood-affected areas and
these losses have had a direct effect on the farmers. The already existent poverty in such
areas of Pakistan further increased. The losses sustained by the agricultural sector also
worsen food insecurity situation across the country. Much of the forest cover has also
been destroyed, especially in the northern areas. In Pakistan, the forest cover was already
below the international level and the floods have only worsened the situation. The article
further emphasizes that effects on the agricultural sector and forestry will continue to be
felt in the coming days. Apart from agricultural aspect, the article also mentions the
damage sustained by transportation and communication. The main reason highlighted in
this report as the cause of this flood is the heavy and abnormal rains during the monsoon,
which caused the Indus River to overflow and is already being predicted by climate
experts that abnormal rains, floods, heat waves, landslides and fires would become
inevitable in the future. Its not possible for Pakistan to overcome this climate changes
but it can devise policies for implementation of tools and infrastructure to minimize the
impact of these natural disasters. This implementation of adaptation plan and physical
interventions requires a huge amount of investment and hence Pakistan must also focus
on its abilities to invest.

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Ned Haluzan, MIT, Global warming will have huge impact on worlds economy.
This article is about global warming and how it will be affecting the worlds economy.
Global warming is characterized as one of the leading affect of climatic changes itself.
Researchers at MIT University have directed their focus on three environmental changes
and how they affect crops, pastures and forests. The article also focuses on increasing
world temperature due to high emissions of carbon dioxide and ozone depletion and all of
which links back to human activity. The results of the research were mixed showing that
increase temperature might benefit the vegetation in time to come especially in northern
temperature regions. At the same time increase in ozone will lead to adverse effects on
crops. According to their findings, if nothing is done now by 2100, the value of the world
crop production will be 10% to 12% less. The article suggest that the changing climate is
not only the result of human activity but also natural events and these changes will
eventually be having a negative world wide effect.

Ned Haluzan, Climate change and its global impact.

This article mainly focuses on the contribution of the entire world toward the climate
change. For some people, global climatic change is not a significant issue but is merely
there to put more emphasis on health of our planet, according to Algore invention.
However there are some that argue otherwise. According to them the melting of ice in the
Polar Regions, high temperatures in Africa, extreme weather events and endangered
animals remain the hanging questions to climatic dispute. These are the few reasons why
the worlds leading nations are coming together to combat against this magnitude of
climatic turbulence. Alongside they can help poor countries to adapt to severe weather
changes if they are willing, by reducing the CO2 emissions.

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South Asia lacks long-term climate change data, T. V. Padma, 3rd December 2010 | EN
This article highlights the urgency of long term data needed for the study of climate
change and impact on South Asia. The main focus of this article is that South Asian
countries lack long term data that is needed to ascertain climate change impacts. Which
can be helpful in corroborating future trends but unfortunately that data dont exist?
According to Sunita Narain, director of the New Delhi-based Centre for Science and
Environment, South Asia has to face extreme weather events like for example, fewer
rainy days but more rain on the days when it does rain; cloud bursts; and unseasonable
heavy rain. Indias city Bombay is the example of it and also beginning to see some
intensification of tropical cyclones in the region but fortunately now, the Centre for
Climate Change Research (CCCR) at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology is
among institutions that have started working on bridging the data gap and, rise in the sea
level is one of the major concerns along the four sectors of the Indian economy
agriculture, water, natural ecosystems and biodiversity. This article mainly focuses on
Indias undergoing research on the climate change and how their Ministry of environment
and forests is working to remove the data gap, predicting and assessing the future trends
of climate change on its economy.
Analysis

There are several factors that affect the economy of Pakistan. In our report we have
directed our focus on the changes in climate and their impact on the economy of Pakistan.
As mentioned earlier, Pakistan is an agro-based country and so agriculture is mainly
affected by this changing factor. According to the articles mentioned above, climate
change has had a global impact and South Asian region is comparatively more vulnerable
to it. Pakistan being included in this particular region is one of the countries, which has to
face worse results of climate change, yet to come.

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Pakistan has been bearing the impact of climate change without being aware of it. Long
spells of drought, floods in non-flood prone areas in 2007-08 and changing
rainfall patterns are trends that are visible representations of change in the
climate. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007) had clearly mentioned that in the
coming years, rains would intensify in the northern region of the country.
According to this study, the major impact of climate change is on Southeast Asian
agriculture, and Pakistan being part of this has suffered and will continue to suffer
in terms of agriculture contribution to the economy.
Moreover in the article by Robert Mendelsohn on Climate Change Impacts on Southeast
Asian Agriculture, mentioned above, locations that are cool will likely benefit from
warming, locations that are temperate will have modest effects, but locations that are
already hot will be damaged. Low latitude regions of the world will be vulnerable to
climate change because they have large agricultural sectors and because they are already
hot. Southeast Asian agriculture is especially important amounting to over 50% of all low
latitude agriculture. Potentially, a large fraction of the global damages from climate
change could fall on this sector in this region. Based on this study, the areas of Pakistan,
like Sindh and Baluchistan that mainly have long periods of high temperatures, will be
affected most by these changes, and hence they are the major contributors to the GDP of
Pakistan, as mentioned above, simultaneously the economy of Pakistan will be
automatically affected.
The 1992 floods in Pakistan, pointed out that an increased reduction of the forest cover
had made the floods even more devastating. Forests cannot control or mitigate floods
entirely but they can play a significant role in reducing severity of flood. They can also
help to reduce soil erosion caused by heavy rains and floods, which can diffuse the
impact of intense flooding. Pakistan being unable to meet the forest cover requirement, it
is highly vulnerable to impact of floods, example of which is the recent flood that
resulted in immense destruction of crops, infrastructure and livelihood of around 10 lakh
people.

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Moreover, the Fourth Assessment report of IPCC came out with clear predication of
abnormal rains, floods, and heat waves in certain areas of the world, including South
Asia. Hence Pakistan needs to be well prepared for these upcoming changes. However,
changing rainfall patterns will not be the only source of floods in the coming years. The
recent cyclone in the Arabian Sea; Cyclone Phet, signaled warnings across the coastal
areas of Pakistan as tens of thousand of people were evacuated from vulnerable areas
along the coastal regions of Sindh and Balochistan.
However, these future prospects of changing climate are due to many factors. The most
important of which is, overpopulation. The over population of a country itself contributes
towards these drastic outcomes. In Pakistan, the increasing population is resulting in
adverse effects on the climate, and in turn is affecting the economy of the country. Over
populations means more usage of fossil fuels and other Carbon dioxide emitters which
result in high temperature and consequently increased global warming which as
mentioned in our above articles is one of the reasons for climate change.
Climate changes are inevitable in time to come, its not possible to reverse these changes
but certain measures and policies can be undertaken in order to overcome the possible
outcomes.
Adaptation and pre-emptive planning are key strategic steps, which can help minimize
the impact of climate change. First, Pakistan has to develop a comprehensive Adaptation
Action Plan for the country keeping in mind the vulnerabilities of the country to climate
change, which poses multiple threats simultaneously.
Second, Pakistan has to focus on reservoir development, in particular the construction of
new reservoirs. Big dams may have their social and environmental problems, but they
can play a very crucial role in minimizing the impact of floods due to rain. Besides flood
control, these dams can also help generate cheap electricity and ensure timely availability
of water for agriculture, drinking and industry.
Third, the forest cover of the country which is already well below the international level
should be increased. In recent times, based on the existing situation, CDA took an
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initiative of planting 1.5 million trees in Islamabad, in order to meet the international
forest cover requirement. However, if such measures are to result in fruitful outcomes,
they need to be carried out throughout the country and by various sectors.
Fourth, Pakistan must also rapidly develop infrastructure to avoid or minimize impacts of
floods due to sea level rise. Physical infrastructure will have to be constructed to secure
Karachi and other low-lying coastal areas. Increasing the mangrove forest cover along the
coastal line will also serve to act as a defense against floods from predicted sea level rise
along the coasts of Sindh and Baluchistan.
Hence for such measure to be implemented, huge amount of investment is required.
Pakistan does not possess such resources and its ability to invest in the future is also
compromised as it struggles to deal with consequences of the recent floods. However,
Pakistan can secure funding to invest in these options from the international community
through places like, Clean Development Mechanisms Adaptation Fund, which are in
place to assist developing countries cope with the impact of climate change. They will
serve to minimize burden of the country. Funds by such organizations will not be loans,
thus will not entangle the country in another web of debts, and if Pakistan wishes to
benefit from these resources, then this will depend entirely on its government and state
Conclusion
Pakistan economy is affected by various factors but climate change is one of the greatest
environmental and economical sustainability challenge faced by not only Pakistan but all
over the world. It is not a new phenomenon. It has been occurring naturally for thousands
of years which have been intensified by human activities due to the rapidly expanding
world population and the growth in modern business. Since the start of the industrial
revolution 250 years ago, Pakistans economy is no doubt facing the adverse effects of
climate change mostly on the agriculture sector as Pakistan is an agro-based economy.
However, climate changes are inevitable in time to come, its not possible to reverse these
changes but certain measures and policies can be undertaken in order to overcome the
possible outcomes. Politics should be kept aside and focus should be shifted on the
construction of new dams, which have become a dire need for the country hence, even
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though government has to play a key role but it can not be possible only by efforts made
by the upper level without the involvement of the entire population.

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References

http://www.google.com.pk/imgres?
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www.eldoradocountyweather.com/climate/pakistan/pakistan-climate-listingsa-z.html -

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan

www.photius.com/countries/pakistan/climate/index.html

www.wordtravels.com/Travelguide/.../Pakistan/Climate

www.nationsencyclopedia.com Asia and Oceania Pakistan

Robert Mendelsohn Yale University , Climate Change Impacts on Southeast

Asian Agriculture, November 24, 2005

Shakeel Ahmed Ramay, The News on 2 October 2010

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/35000/35705/pakistan
_amo_2008302_lrg.jpg&imgrefurl=http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/v
iew.php&page=2&ndsp=14&ved=1t:429,r:10,s:13&biw=1259&bih=416

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