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NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll

November 2016
Arizona Questionnaire
Residents: n=1,120 MOE +/- 2.9%
Registered Voters: n=948 MOE +/- 3.2%
Likely Voters: n=719 MOE +/- 3.7%
Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Screener
<Marist Poll Introduction> Are you 18 years of age or older?
Do you consider your permanent home address to be in Arizona?
HH SELECTION LANDLINE FRAME ONLY
GENDER GUESS

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?


LIKELY VOTERS
Approve
Disapprove
Unsure
Total

November 2016
45
50
5
100

September 2016
46
50
5
100

REGISTERED VOTERS

November 2016
47
47
6
100

September 2016
47
47
6
100

RESIDENTS

November 2016
47
45
8
100

September 2016
48
44
7
100

November 2016
41

Approve
Disapprove
Unsure
Total

Approve
Disapprove
Unsure
Total
If November's presidential election were held today, whom would you support
if the candidates are [including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a
candidate or already voted]:
LIKELY VOTERS
Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, the Democrats
Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Republicans
Neither
Other
Undecided
Total

46
6
6
2
100

September 2016
41
42
10
2
4
100

REGISTERED VOTERS
Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, the Democrats

November 2016
41

September 2016
41

Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Republicans


Neither
Other
Undecided
Total

45
6
6
2
100

40
13
2
4
100

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Arizona Poll November 2016; Page 1

Would you say you strongly support <candidate>, somewhat support them, or
do you think you might vote differently on Election Day [including those who
are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or already voted]?
LIKELY VOTERS WITH A CANDIDATE PREFERENCE
Strongly support

November 2016
62

September 2016
63

36
1
1
100

30
5
1
100

November 2016
60

September 2016
58

37
2
1
100

34
7
1
100

November 2016
40

September 2016
38

45
9
3
2
1
100

40
12
3
1
6
100

November 2016
39

September 2016
37

44
10
4
2
1
100

37
13
4
2
7
100

Somewhat support
Might vote differently
Unsure
Total
REGISTERED VOTERS WITH A CANDIDATE PREFERENCE
Strongly support
Somewhat support
Might vote differently
Unsure
Total
If November's presidential election were held today, whom would you support
if the candidates are [including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a
candidate or already voted]:
LIKELY VOTERS
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat
Donald Trump, the Republican
Gary Johnson, the Libertarian
Jill Stein, of the Green Party
Other
Undecided
Total
REGISTERED VOTERS
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat
Donald Trump, the Republican
Gary Johnson, the Libertarian
Jill Stein, of the Green Party
Other
Undecided
Total

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Arizona Poll November 2016; Page 2

Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Hillary


Clinton?
LIKELY VOTERS
Favorable

November 2016
37

September 2016
34

61
3
100

61
5
100

November 2016
36

September 2016
33

62
3
100

61
6
100

November 2016
36
60
4
100

September 2016
33
60
7
100

November 2016
34
59
6
100

September 2016
35
58
7
100

REGISTERED VOTERS

November 2016
33
61
6
100

September 2016
32
60
8
100

RESIDENTS

November 2016
31
62
6
100

September 2016
31
61
8
100

Unfavorable
Unsure/Never heard
Total
REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure/Never heard
Total
RESIDENTS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure/Never heard
Total
Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Donald
Trump?
LIKELY VOTERS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure/Never heard
Total

Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure/Never heard
Total

Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure/Never heard
Total

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Arizona Poll November 2016; Page 3

If November's election for U.S. Senate in Arizona were held today, whom
would you support if the candidates are [including those who are undecided
yet leaning toward a candidate or already voted]:
LIKELY VOTERS
Ann Kirkpatrick, the Democrat
John McCain, the Republican
Other
Undecided
Total

November 2016
39
55
5
2
100

September 2016
38
57
1
4
100

November 2016
38
55
5
2
100

September 2016
38
57
1
5
100

September 2016
53

Somewhat support
Might vote differently
Unsure
Total

November 2016
47
48
3
2
100

REGISTERED VOTERS WITH A CANDIDATE PREFERENCE


Strongly support

November 2016
46

September 2016
51

48
4
2
100

38
9
2
100

REGISTERED VOTERS
Ann Kirkpatrick, the Democrat
John McCain, the Republican
Other
Undecided
Total
Would you say you strongly support <candidate>, somewhat support
<candidate>, or do you think you might vote differently on Election Day?
LIKELY VOTERS WITH A CANDIDATE PREFERENCE
Strongly support

Somewhat support
Might vote differently
Unsure
Total

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Arizona Poll November 2016; Page 4

37
8
1
100

Are you male or female?


LIKELY VOTERS

November 2016
48
52
100

September 2016
48
52
100

REGISTERED VOTERS

November 2016
49
51
100

September 2016
48
52
100

RESIDENTS

November 2016
49
51
100

September 2016
49
51
100

Male
Female
Total

Male
Female
Total

Male
Female
Total
Nature of the Sample: NBC News/WSJ/Marist Arizona Poll of 1,120 Adults

This survey of 1,120 adults was conducted October 30th through November 1st, 2016 by The Marist Poll sponsored and funded
in partnership with NBC News and The Wall Street Journal . Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of Arizona
were contacted on landline or mobile numbers and interviewed in English or Spanish by telephone using live interviewers.
Landline telephone numbers were randomly selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state of
Arizona from ASDE Survey Sampler, Inc. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in
proportion to its population. Respondents in the household were randomly selected by first asking for the youngest male. This
landline sample was combined with respondents reached through random dialing of mobile phone numbers from Survey
Sampling International. Assistance was provided by Luce Research for data collection. After the interviews were completed, the
two samples were combined and balanced to reflect the 2013 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender,
income, and region, except for race, which is from the 2010 Census. Results are statistically significant within 2.9 percentage
points. There are 948 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within 3.2 percentage points.
There are 719 likely voters defined by a probability turnout model which determines the likelihood respondents will participate in
the 2016 Presidential Election based upon their chance of vote, interest in the election, and past election participation. The
results for this subset are statistically significant within 3.7 percentage points. The error margin was not adjusted for sample
weights and increases for cross-tabulations.
For nature of the sample and additional tables, please visit The Marist Poll

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Arizona Poll November 2016; Page 5