40 492

Seeking Wisdom:
From Darwin to Munger
Peter Bevelin

492

Use notions
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What is the issue?

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Utilityapplicability
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Understand what it means

Filters and Rules

What do I specifically and measurable want to achieve

and avoid and when and why?

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What is the cause of that?

Degree of sensitivity if I change the assumptions

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Has my goal different cause short-term
and long-term

What available alternatives do I have to achieve my goal?

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What are the consequences?

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Bias

The hypothesis

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Look for evidence and judge the evidence

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hat is the quality of the
evidence

Disprove my (or others) conclusion by thinking like a

prosecutor

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What are the consequences if I am wrong?

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What is the value?

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What yardstick can be used to measure progress or to

measure things against?

How act now?

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Have I made an active decision?

Post mortem or learning from mistakes

What exactly is the problem?

WHAT ARE THE LIKELY CONSEQUENCES

CONSIDERING HUMAN BEHAVIOR?

What is causing me to do this?

What is the context?

Can I judge him?

What is in his self-interest to do?

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What are the psychological tendencies and shortcuts that
influence him and can cause misjudgment?

What are the consequences?

What system would I like to have if the roles were

reversed?

Is this the right system?

BUSINESS EVALUATION

Filter 1 - Can I understand the business - predictability?

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Filter 2 - Does it look like the business has some kind of

sustainable competitive advantage?
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10 10

Annual

cost differential against competition

Filter 3 - Able and honest management?

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Filter 4 - Is the price right?

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Filter 5 Disprove
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Filter 6 - What are the consequences if I'm wrong?

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