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Chester R.2 used the plotting of the true ultimate oil recovery against time on a semilogarithmicscale. A clear 41- year downwardlineartrend emerges.The gravity-drainage
mechanismis one of the most efficient ways of producing an oil field. Unfortunately,
most oil fields can't be produced economicallyunder free-fallgravity alone becausethe
effective oil permeability is too low, the oil viscosity is too high or the dip of the
formation is too small. An engineer must calculate gravity-drainage recovery as a
.
function of time. In 1978 Herman Dykstra3 studied and broadened the application of
Cardwell and Person's method of predicting oil recovery under free-fall gravity drainage
recovery, and he is expanded the account for residual oil saturation.
Kabir et al4 used an analytical approach for forecasting oil well's rate behavior rapidly for
a well of any orientation (vertical or horizontal) and located it in various drainage
configurations.
T.."
(.;t-r) .r..P'i,,-\,.
.4J.r,!IJ 41.,...,.s::JI
L..~I .,t.., ~I 'i)J-II 'i.rA1'}j11
conventional p/z- plot method. The (CR) model can be implemented with a simple
spreadsheet program.
A new correlation was developed that can be used to predict miscible or near-miscible
residual oil saturation6,7, (Sorrn),for a wide range of injected gases compositions, crude
oils, temperature, and pressure conditions. The correlation is based on the representation
of the chemical and physical properties of the crude oil and the injected gas through
solubility parameters (8). The advantage of this approach is that it has the characteristics
of both the injected gas and crude oil included in the correlation, in contrast to
correlations based solely on the properties of the injected gas.
This empirical correlation should have utility in screening studies as a simple means to
forecast residual oil saturations as measured in coreflood tests. The correlation can be
used to predict roughly the effects of changes in pressure, temperature, or injected gas
composition on residual oil saturation.
Instantaneous Gas-Oil Ratio (GaR):
The Produced gas-oil ratio (GOR) at any particular time is the ratio of standard cubic feet
of total gas being produced at any time to the stock-tank barrels of oil being produced at
that same time.
GOR = Rso +
f.Jo/3o
()
Krg
K,o f.Jg/3g
There are three types of gas-oil ratios, instantaneous GOR, solution GOR, (Rs), and
cumulative GOR, Rp where:
G
2
R =-L
P NP
N,
.'. Gp =
(GOR)dN
t!Gp =
J(GOR)dN
N"
Between NPI and NP2,the above equation can be approximate to:
uA G
p
t!Gp
-- GORl+GOR2 (N P I - N P2')
2
or
= (GOR)avg.t!Np
5
:. Gp = "J)GOR)avg.t!Np
P.V.
(355)
'I' . . 'I" (,J-.1"::"'-)./..PI' '\ - \ 'I" '4 J.r.!'J 4",...,s:J\ ~J.:J,\ <J
NPoi
I-S,.;
7
Sg =1-So -S,.;
From Equation (1)
K
And then plotting the -..!! versus Sg on a semi-log paper to find slope (a) and the
Kro
intercept (b).
Kg = a * e b*S,
Ko
The equation gives a straight line on a semilog plot has a slope (b) and an intercept (a).
The reservoir PVT data must be available in order to predict the primary recovery
performance of a depletion-drive reservoir in terms of Npand Gp. These data are:
. Initial oil-in-place (N).
Hydrocarbon PVT.
. Initial fluid saturations.
.
.
RelativepermeabilityData.
All The techniques that are used to predict the future performance of a reservoir are based
on combining the appropriate MBE, with the instantaneous GOR using a proper
saturation equation. The calculations are repeated at a series of assumed reservoir
pressure drops. There are several techniques that were specificalIy developed to predict
the performance of the solution-gas-drive reservoirs inc1uding7,8:
.
Tracy's method,
Muskat's method,
..
..
Tamer's method,
Schilthuis's.
Tracy's method is only one, that we will study through this research.
The methodoIo!!V of Tracv's :
Tracy's suggests that the general MBE can be rearranged and expressed in terms of
two functions ofPVT variables for depletion drive reservoir without water influx:
N =N p cI>0 + Gp cI>g
where:
cI>
0
10
Po- RsPg
II
(Po-PO;}+(RSi-Rs)Pg
(356)
y . .,. (,j!.r--J.J!yS'i\ '\- \,. '4 ).r:JIJ4~1
A-.J.:.Jo\
<J 1-1
r.i).rJ1 r.i~I ) j.I.\
<I>
12
f3g
(130
- 13 . ) + (R . - R )13
01
Sf
M1
13
<I>0
+ (GOR)avg <I>g
14
Tracy suggested the following alternative technique for solving equation (13):
1- Select an average reservoir pressure
2- Calculate the values of the PVT functions <I>
0 and <I>g.
3- Estimate the GOR at assumed reservoir pressure from PVT data.
4- Calculate the average instantaneous GOR
GOR = GORassum.+ Rso) .
2
15
Np =N; +D.Np
16
7- Calculate the oil and gas saturations at selected average reservoir pressure by using
equations (6, and 7).
K
8- Obtain relative permeability ratio --'!.. at Sg.
Kro
9- Calculate the instantaneous GOR from equation (1).
10- Compare the estimated GOR in step (3) with the calculated GOR in step (9). If the
values are within acceptable tolerance, proceed to next step. If not within the
tolerance, set the estimated GOR equal to the calculated GOR and repeat the
calculation from step (2).
11- Calculate the cumulative gas production.
--17
----
Gp =G;+D.Np(GOR)ovg
12- Since results of the calculations are based on 1 STB of oil initially in place, a final
check on the accuracy of the prediction should be made on the MBE, or:
(357)
T . .,. (.Y-.r-)./..Pi" - ,,. '4 J~'J 1,o",.,s:J,
~,
N p ct> 0 + Gp ct>g
=1:t tolerance
18
Qornax[
Qrnax=.
19
( P, ) ]
KohP 0.472r
1. 8* 141.2 /3oPo[In
!..+S]
rw
20
The following methodology can be employed to correlate the predicted cumulative field
production with time (t):
1- Plot the predicted cumulative oil production Np as a function of average reservoir
pressure (P).
2- Construct the IPR curve for each well in the field at the initial average reservoir
pressure pO.Calculate the oil flow rate of the entire field by taking the summation
of the flow rates (composite IPR).
3- Using the minimum bottom-hole flowing pressure (Pwf)min,determine the total
field flow rate (Qoh.
4- Select a future average reservoir pressure (P) and determine the future IPR for
each well in field.
5- Using the minimum (Pwf),determine the field total oil flow rate (Qoh.
6- Calculate the time (~t) required for the incremental oil production ~Np during the
first pressure drop interval, Le. from (po) to (P), by:
M= ~
21
(Qo)T
7- Repeat the above steps and calculate the total time to reach an average reservoir
pressure (P) by:
~
t=LM
22
Spreadsheet Program
(358)
y . .,.
(.:r..r->i.r.pi
'i.roll
} j!.1
The spreadsheet program consists of three files: a data file, a program file, and a output
file.
I-Data in File
The data file contains PVT properties such as oil formation volume factor, gas formation
volume factor, solution gas oil ratio, and oil and gas viscosity as function in reservoir
pressure. Also oil and gas relative permeability data, reservoir permeability for oil,
reservoir thickness, reservoir drainage radius, well bore radius are available for reservoir.
All these data are shown in appendices (A, B, and C)
2-Program File
The program file includes all calculations. These calculations include <poand <pgat each
pressure value from equations 11 and 12. Increment oil and gas production are found
from equations 13 and 14 and its cumulative, (Np and Gp) are calculated by using
equation 16 and 17. Calculate the oil saturation from equation 6 and also gas saturation
from equation 7. The relative permeability for oil and gas is calculated as a straight line
to determine the slope and intercept. Calculate the Ravfrom equation 1. The final check
on the accuracy of the prediction is calculated by using equation 18. We use an alteration
method to find the right assuming gas oil ratio. It can be made easy in our program.
3-Data output
The data comes out from our program. Can be summarized in many relations as:
The oil and gas relative permeability,
The average gas oil ratio (Rav)and solution gas oil ratio (R.),
The oil and gas produce (Npand Gp) for each reservoir forecasting pressure,
Inflow relationship (IPR) at future reservoir pressure,
The rate of oil production (Qo) and oil produced (Np) at future times are available in our
program also.
A table for all the results is also available in our program. Our program is easy for
forecasting the future production performance of a depleted reservoir.
Table (1) The Results of The Program.
GORass.
SCF{STB
PSI
BBljSTB
BBljSCF SCF{STB
840
4350
1.43
0.00069 840
840
840
4150
1.42
0.00071 820
0.002943031
0.002943
770
3950
1.395
0.00074 770
0.009006309
0.0119493
4153
3750
1.38
0.00078 730
0.006924333
0.0188737
5367
3550
1.36
0.00081 680
0.007070887
0.0259446
6672
3352
1.345
0.00085 640
9.4235294 0.01
3656
0;0060654
0.03201
1101119 GOR".L
<iGp
Gp
Np'<I>o+Gp'C1>9
5CF
SCF{STB STB
<1>0
<1>g
dimensionless
GOR"...
<iNp
S9
Fraction
Fraction
Ratio
Ratio
SCF{STB SCF
840
(359)
T . . T' (.:1-.)'';'.1)
f,pi \' - \ T''4 J.r:JIJ;.,;1"..,SJ1
~.u.1 .J
Np
*N, STB
840
0.6930592 0.0069408 0.0089032 53
830
2.442716
830
770
2.442716
(360)
y . .,. (.:tr).;!pI
L...I:AI
~ ..,...~I <,?
).rJ1 <,?
~\
.} j11
After the forecasting of the gross flow rate becomes known, and water cut is available,
then the forecasting oil flow rate becomes known. See Fig. (4).
Forecastin!! oroduction and recoverv at any future reservoir time
The time required (~T) for the increment oil recovery (~p) during the first pressure drop
interval from 4350 to 4150 is equal to (10 day).Repeat the above steps and calculate the
total time(t)to reach an average reservoir pressure equal to 3352 psia, we found that it is
equal to (335.23 day), see fig. (5).
Conclusions
I-We designed a spreadsheet computer program to calculate the forecasting oil
production by Tracy method.
2- Our program can work easily, fast, and accurately.
3- Our program can easily respond to the changes in all data as in appendices (A, B,
andC), like the relative permeability data, formation volume factors for oil and gas,
solution gas, and reservoir properties, for producing tables and charts, which can be used
to forecast oil production for any data to depletion drive reservoir by Tracy method.
4- Combination between material balance equation (Tracy method) and the two phase
flow through porous medium (Vogel equation), we can easily to find the right
forecasting oil production rate.
References:
1 - Kenneth W., Saad A. Turaiki, and Abraham S. AI-Mishari :(A Computer Model for
Production Forecasting of Oil and Gas) SPE paper 12230.
2 - Chester R. :(Forecasting Ultimate Oil Recovery) SPE paper 4261.
Techniques to Decline Analysis and Forecasting of Gas Wells) SPE paper 16936.
3 - Herman Dykstra: (The prediction of Oil Recovery by Gravity Drainage) SPE
paper 6548.
4 - Kabir,C.S., Ainley, C.M., and Brown, DR :(An Analytic Simulator for Rapid
Forecasting Rate Behavior of Oil Wells) SPE Paper 36725.
5 - David A. Payne: (Material-Balance Calculations in Tight-Gas Reservoirs: The Pitfalls
of P/zPlots and a More Accurate Technique) SPE Paper 38702.
6 - Lange, E.A. :(Correlation and Prediction of Residual Oil Saturation for Gas-InjectedEnhanced Oil-Recovery Processes) SPE paper 35425.
7- Tarek Ahmed :(Reservoir Engineering Handbook) Gulf Publishing Company,
Houston, Texas, 2000
8 - MJ. Economides,A. D. Hill, and C.E.-Economides:(petroleum Production System),
1994.
Appendix (A)
PVT Data
P, psia
4350
4150
3950
60, BBUSTB
1.43
1.42
1.395
6e. BBUSCF
0.00069
0.00071
0.00074
Rs, SCF/STB
840
820
770
(361)
T. .,. (,j!.r-J./.P! "-,,.
'4h.r.lIJ",~I
4..~\ ~ ..,...~\'iJrI'
roll .}j1\
3750
3550
3352
1.38
1.36
1.345
0.00078
0.00081
0.00085
730
680
640
Appendix (B)
Relative permeability Data
s?;
KIK,
0.1
19000
0.15
340.1
0.20
50.71
0.25
13.0245
0.30
4.2507
0.35
1.5665
0.40
0.6104
0.45
0.2406
0.50
0.0928
0.55
0.0333
0.60
0.0105
0.65
0.00266
0.70
0.000428
0.75
0.00002224
0.80
Appendix (C)
Reservoir Data
13
115
1490
0.328
1.7
4 *10"
0
K.,md
h,ft
R.,ft
R,.,ft
o, cp
N,STB
Skin, (S)
(362)
T. . r (.:I-.r-)f.yS'i"-H' ,.i,hr.J'J4~1
t...J.:..!'
<J \j.,,:?J J' ':?.rU'} j!.1
100000
10000
...
Ii...
.". ~. -.
1000
i!
...
..,'
100
1- I-~tt
-~ ~~:.
10
I-dd
C,
~,
II
0
..
--
Id
'-
'I
'
...
..,.
," ...
...
""'
0.0001
'
'..
.
.
I
. .
1
,.jI i!
:i
r Iii
, I . I
..,
...
...
.".
..',
.d...'
.d.
. '
,...'d
..d
....
""1>.:
d.
..'".,..,dd.".',
0'2
K'R
, :.j;j=
...I~,!r=:-:
/ 7
~
....
''1.,
.,
..~.0 0:di
:dd
dV
;/
dd
---
d..J,,-..
'I'" ,".,''...'...'..~~((
'
,
...
;;dd
"'c...
";;
..It d..
11>11"
..
~.v:r
d'"
dd.
d..
..
'd
"",dd..'
. .
..:..:
..
..
1,
.,
'VI
",
.'..'.",d
...
>
..,
...
,:
/'
""'..
'...
..
dd.
Id
I
d..
..., "d'dd
=-
...
v..
' ...
"dd
'.d. ..:' :.: ..
'
"""
=<"
=<C.
,d'.
',..
,1
.,
d..
.,...,'" '. .
,...'d ':
'
' '
' '
~
~
\
. ..
..
1.
--:),
::;
,J
"
.d"
'd..
dd
ddd
"d,d
..
..d. d
d""'"''
.. .
.:
'7 .""Te"
!-..
018
,0
'1d '-1"-:1-'-1"[I'
I " : , i
...,
..,.
'.
I
I
I
'
". .'..:.'Ij"..",
. dlld
"
l,"
I-r.."',
..
~"
'.,.
..,
.'..
bt-H
i.
...
..:..
.LI.I
'..'
.,
Gas Saturation
..
r-,
G
M
'1,
J'
.'J'
-='
~
....
~'
SI
...
~'"
11 I
f
j1:,
"
'," J..I,
'
"
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." . .. ..,"
.:.'
J ..
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.. I.
,_d..
. "'
"",'...
'.11
'd'
..,
.,
'd"d
.'~..'~i,:":"
...
: ."..d..d',' '...:.'..
,"
""'''d
...,:
d'"
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,..
...,
...i_[_~
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:::
,..,..'
.
.
':"'j
., 'f0,3 hi
,~,..j-~li"'h+-f~i"--'T'''''Tr:VO
4 ...
:lo t'5 i 1061d
'.."
d...
'
...
. ...'
..d...
- . -d...!~..f=..
"" ""
,. ,
d.
...,.,..
.,...
;'I
. ..
fJ! )/~:,-..
r~ ~.. J
I .11'lli,
,
,.
0.00001
'
.i
"
"
,.
..'..
."..
"'''''/;;-V
. ...".H
t...." ,
- ..
'
..1 m
.. ...mm- cc~'2"
. d'.'.
tU
0.001
I i 11-! . 0'i.1
0.1
0.01
"'
."
,
Jj
!'!
.',
I.. .
.. ..
'
...
, ..
...'....'
!\
3
s....
---.._-
4000
-II- Rav
a,
''1-,
--+- Rso
3500
3000
1-...,
'1'
~
\
").
to
l-
V)
2500.
r---
u.
U
V)
r:i
~
,J
.I
2000
0
~
I
I
1500
~
~
---.---
1000
1:
."J'
-='
~...,
~'
S--
I
"..
500
~""
+
I
0
4600
,---,-
4400
4200
4000
3800
3600
3400
3200
and Solution
300JI
~
?3
S-.
>-
.._-------
0.04
----.-------
80
-.- Np
-GP
0.03
~
"1.,
70
1
60
1
u..
~,
U
VI
*
\
50 z
~
'-:I'
e:
~
~
,J
40 ~
<II
q,
> r;)J'
8 ~ .J'
0.03
.......
Co
Z
"-'
0.02
-,.-- ---------
+----
~IO
~t;
0 *
vz
.-
0.02
.-----
(5
0.01
30 ~ I
&
I
20
1-
"
-- -- ---
i
~'
s-
..I
----
0.01
0.00
3000
3200
3400
3600
,--
10
--1---
1\
3800
4000
4200
4400
4600
""
3
s.
.
...
5000
4500
--.---.--
-+-
-8-4150
-6- 3950
.-..-----.
' .-
..._---_.
4000
4350
'1'
3750
--,)IE- 3352
-e-
l 3500
1,....
'10
3352
...-.--
").
::s
m
.. 3000
DC!
C
oJ
$ q,
'"
J.
r') oJ'
-='
un._..
.~
2500
0
ii:
cu
~....
~ 2000
~'
E
0
t:
,
.;::;,
''1.,
..
~--.:,
I
1500
1000
:f,
;)
~.._----
500
...
0'0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Fig. (4) The Relation Between Flow Rate and Bottom Hole Flowing Pressure for
different forecasting Pressures
1600
1400
0.09
-.. ..---.----.
-a,
''1,
-c-0.08
-----
1200
--
1,
':'j'
--------
...n-.----...
l ..,
~,
~
\
-':>'
-
- 0.07
.....
>
-~:is
c
0
----.--.-
1000
0.06
.c
.....
11:
800
600
.....
CII
....
fa
IX
:e
U'--
,...:;
0.05
- 0.04
::J
"C
0
Ir.
400
-..-----..
---
~:
0.03
0.02
(5
200
1: ..~- -- J
.~~--~--
Np!N
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Fig. (5) The Oil Recovery Factor and Oil Production Rate vs. Forecasting
Time
0.01
--1- 0
400
:1
,J
~--. l ~,
t-- J.
. .~ '~
"\...,
u~
!
0
~'
==
~..,
ff
~
S>-