June 16, 2011

Technical Analysis Vista

International Markets Analysis
FINANCIAL PRODUCTS SALES DIVISION

EUR/USD:
Euro declined to a 3 week low ($1.4071) against dollar, as the Eurozone credit crisis is worsening
and the global risk aversion is rising. The scheduled meetings ahead namely German
Chancellor/French President meeting (June 17), Eurogroup meeting (June 19-20), Fed meeting
(June 22) and EU leaders summit (June 23-24) will significantly affect EUR/USD during the
following days.
EUR/USD is in downward move in the short term, as indicated by the downwards cut of 21 days
MA by the 5 days MA on June 15. Support levels are found at $1.4065 (26/5/11 low) and $1.3968
(23/5/11 low). Resistance levels are placed at $1.4340 (21 DMA), at $1.4400 (55 DMA) and at
$1.4500 (14/6/11 high).
Hourly QEUR=

12:00 AM 4/27/2011 - 6:00 AM 6/20/2011 (GMT)

BarOHLC, QEUR=, Bid
10:00 AM 6/16/2011, 1.4136, 1.4139, 1.4071, 1.4103
SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 55
10:00 AM 6/16/2011, 1.4325
SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 21
10:00 AM 6/16/2011, 1.4178

100.0% 1.4939

76.4% 1.471

Price
USD
1.48
1.47
1.46

61.8% 1.4568

1.45

50.0% 1.4454
1.44

38.2% 1.4339

1.43
1.42

23.6% 1.4197

1.41

0.0%

1.4

1.3968

.1234
RSI, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing
10:00 AM 6/16/2011, 22.331

Value
USD
60
40
20
.123

27 28 29 01

03 04 05 06 08

10 11 12 13 15

April 2011

17 18 19 20 22

May 2011

24 25 26 27 29

31 01 02 03 05

07 08 09 10 12

14 15 16 17 19

June 2011

Source: International Markets Analysis, Reuters.

The medium term uptrend remains in place, however the momentum has weakened. The break
downwards of the 55 days MA from the 21 days MA on 30/5/11 provide initial signal of fatigue for
EUR/USD.

International Markets Analysis

t.+30 210 326 8265, marketanalysis@alpha.gr

For the 1 month horizon: Support at $1.3968 (23/5/11 low) and at the area of $1.3770-1.3815
(38.2% Fibonacci retracement level: 1.1875 1.4939 and 200 DMA). Resistance at $1.4711
(76.4% Fibonacci retracement level: $1.4939-$1.3968) and at the area of $1.4900-39 (4-5/5/11
high).
Daily QEUR=

10/2/2009 - 7/13/2011 (GMT)

Price
USD

0.0%

1.4939

1.48
1.44

23.6% 1.4216
1.4

38.2% 1.3769
1.36

50.0% 1.3407
1.32

1.28

1.24

1.2

61.8% 1.3046
Cndl, QEUR=, Bid
6/16/2011, 1.4162, 1.4201, 1.4071, 1.4105
SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 200
76.4% 1.2598
6/16/2011, 1.3816
SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 55
6/16/2011, 1.4404
SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 21
6/16/2011, 1.4337
100.0% 1.1875

.1234
MACD, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential
6/16/2011, -0.0012, 0.0018

Value
USD
.1234

RSI, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing

6/16/2011, 34.875

Value
USD
30
.123

Nov

Dec

Q4 2009

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

Q1 2010

May

Jun

Q2 2010

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Q3 2010

Nov

Dec

Q4 2010

Jan

Feb

Mar

Q1 2011

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Q2 2011

Source: International Markets Analysis, Reuters.

International Markets Analysis

www.alpha.gr

Panos Remoundos
Maria Koutouzi
Ioannis Kouravelos, CFA
Kostas Anathreptakis

Disclaimer:

+30 210 326 8265

marketanalysis@alpha.gr

premoundos@alpha.gr
mkoutouzi@alpha.gr
ikouravelos@alpha.gr
kanathreptakis@alpha.gr

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