Mughal CR 13-04-16

Company Report
Catalysts to our investment thesis:

Prime impetuses that drive our investment case are:
Installation of 7.5 MW induction furnace along with BMR of re-rolling mill would
result in capacity enhancement and efficiency gains. We believe that after the
completion of projects, the company would be able to realize higher billet yield
and lower scale loss, resulting in lower conversion costs and margin accretion.
Moreover, according to recent company filings, the work on on-going projects is
as per schedule stipulated in IPO prospectus.
Hike in disbursement of PSDP funds for infrastructural projects, the government has already disbursed PKR ~388 bn against ~250 bn in the corresponding
period, up 55.2% YoY. Moreover, according to latest quarterly review by SBP,
credit take-off in private sector for construction industry soured by whopping
~76%.
The steel sector is expected to get push from the upbeat construction and
power sectors as more projects are anticipated to be materialized under CPEC.
As per international standards, every five tons of cement used in infrastructure
projects requires one ton of steel. This means, during 9MFY16 ~24 million ton of
cement has been consumed has creating a demand for ~4.8 million ton of
steel . Furthermore, the government has already disbursed PKR ~10.3 bn in lieu
of CPEC.
REP-092
April 13, 2016
Mughal Iron & Steel Ind Ltd

Target Price
Current Price
Upside
Positive
Key Stats
KATS Code
52 Week High (PKR)
52 Week Low (PKR)
Avg. daily volume ('000)
Market Cap (PKR Bln)
Market Cap (USD, mln)
O/S Shares (Mln)
Technical
RSI
1 Month moving average
3 Month moving average
1 Year moving average
Performance
1M
Absolute
(8.7)%
*Relative
(2.8)%
106
73
44%
MUGHAL
86.03
35.70
988.87
144.67
1,377.76
1,971.72
25.15
122.88
126.70
156.76
3M
(7.3)%
(3.5)%
1 Yr
(36.2)%
(38.0)%
* KSE-100 Index
One year price performance
Volume
MUGHAL
100
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
80
60
40
20
0
Million Shares
We re-initiate our coverage on MUGHAL with a buy call on the scrip, having an upside of 44% to our target price of PKR106 per share till Dec-16. We expect Sales/
Earnings to grow at a 4-year CAGR of 18%/40% on account of i) increased construction activity largely due to surge in PSDP disbursements and ramp up of CPEC activity ii) Increased capacity utilization leading to volumetric growth in dispatches iii)
30% enhancement of existing capacity through BMR of existing plants and iv) induction of new furnace that would increase the energy efficiency of the plant, resulting
in margin accretion. Further, we have tweaked our model to incorporate efficiency
gains that would arise from BMR of re-rolling mills coupled with installation of induction furnace to drive expansion in operating margins.
Rs.
MUGHAL: Topline to shore up earnings
Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
Mughal Steel is operating at lower utilization levels, given its intention to produce in-house electricity coupled with KV grid expansion. The company is
poised to benefit from higher volumetric growth by realizing higher economies
of scale.
Contracts
EPS impact
Status
Orange line Project
0.83
on-going
Sahiwal coal power plant
0.78
on-going
Contract for supply of steel bars for

FWO projects
Contract for supply of material for
1223 MW RLNG based Bhikki
Power plant project
Contract for supply of steel bars for
FWO projects 1180 MW RLNG
based Baloki power plant project
Yet to commence
Yet to commence
Yet to commence
Source: IISPL Research
Bader Al Hussain
bader.alhussain@ismailiqbal.com
Research is also available on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, S&P Capital IQ & www.JamaPunji.pk
Page 1 of 8
DISCLAIMER: Ismail Iqbal Securities (Pvt.) Limited does not warrant the timeliness, sequence, accuracy or completeness of this information. In no event will Ismail Iqbal Securities
(Pvt.) Limited be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages without limitation which includes lost revenues, lost profits, or loss of prospective economic
advantage resulting from the use of the information or for any omission or inaccuracies resulting from the use of information from this market report. Copyright Ismail Iqbal Securities (Pvt). Limited.
Company Report
Industrial Analysis
Capacity Utilization of Industry
Steel sector, which has grown by 36% in last fiscal year, is continuously expanding
due to robust demand of construction materials needed to sustain the economic 70%
growth. Dominated by small and medium players that are engaged in re-rolling, forg- 60%
ing and melting of long, flat and raw products; the current production of Pakistan
50%
stands at six million metric tons of steel per year.
40%
Pakistani re-bar market is bifurcated into three segments: Grade-60 rebar, Commercial grade re-bar and ship plates bar. Grade-60, a quality re-bar, is producer by few 30%
(approximately 10) major players of the market. Whereas other types of re-bars are 20%
also manufactured by small fragmented re-rolling plants in Pakistan.
10%
Steel production is highly energy intensive in which fuel and energy cost comprises of
~20%-40% of the total cost of production. However, units in Pakistan are utilizing
obsolete technology that are half as efficient, when compared to international
benchmarks. Thus, they are unable compete with their international peers. Hence, in
order to protect the domestic steel producers, the government has enacted regulatory and custom duties.
0%
FY11
FY13
Re-rolled Products
FY14
FY15
Ignots & billets
Source: PSM, PSMA
Steel Production by Peers
During the period of July15 to Jan16, production of billets/ingots has been expanded
by 14.24% YoY against the corresponding period predominately due to better capacity utilization of industry, which stands at 60% .
300,000
However, according to the latest data published by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics,

manufacturing of billets/ingots swelled to 250,000 tonnes up 24.43% YoY.
200,000
250,000
150,000
In Pakistan, ~94% of the crude steel is produced by electric furnace (EF) whereas remaining ~6% is manufactured through oxygen blown converter (OBC) compared to
the regional average of 16% and 84% respectively. Pakistani re-bar producers use
electric furnace to produce billets from scrap iron.
100,000
50,000
However, the only impediment in the growth of steel sector would include: electricity
and gas load shedding and the dumping of imported steel products especially from
China.
China contributes about ~50% to the worlds steel production and as Pakistan has
FTA with China, therefore, goods can be imported from China at a concessionary
rates, without custom duty. Thus, in 1HFY16, Pakistan witnessed a mushroom growth
of 22% in steels imports from China.
FY12
Agha Steel
Amreli Steel
Mughal Steel
FY15
Source: SBP
400,000
350,000
On the other hand, the imposition of duties on the import of raw steel items would
also increase cost of production for dmoestic steel manufacturers.
300,000
Among peers, Mughal steel, which operates electrical furnaces, has ~22% market
share for long-rolled residential section products and 18% market share for long
rolled reinforcement bar products.
200,000
250,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
Current Duty Structure
CD
RD
Scrap
2%
5%
Billets
6%
15%
Rebar
6%
15%
Amreli
Steel
Agha
Mughal Dost Steel A.S.

Limited Group of
Steel
Industries
Production Capacity of Re-bar
Page 2 of 8
Company Report
Company
MUGHAL is one of the largest manufacturers of structured steel in Pakistan, having
iron and Steel melting capacity of 384,000 tons with re-rolling mills capable of processing up to 688,000 tons of molten Iron and Steel.
Located in the industrial area of Lahore, the company currently operates 5 induction
furnaces, 6 re-rolling mills, 1 Arc Furnace, and A coal gasification plant. The company
has 100% reliance on electricity grid because of which it is suffering from capacity
constraints, following unavailability of electricity. MUGHALs in house 9.3W power
plant is not operational due to shortage of gas supply. However, the company is negotiating with LESCO to enhance its grids load capacity to 60 MW from 20 MW.
Sales Volume Composition

4%
48%
46%
Mughal Steel, also a manufacturer to Grade-60 rebar, sale 90% of its re-bar steel to
corporate clients while girders and Tee iron is predominately sold in villages where
girder is used to build ceiling of the houses.
MUGHAL manufactures product in the following three categories:
1. Billet
2. Bars
3. Beams
1HFY16 snapshot:
Top-line for 1HFY16 expanded by ~78% YoY, primarily on account of stellar local volumetric growth in dispatches and better sale prices. Local sales revenue was increased
by 110% YoY, which was partially off-set by subdued performance of exports, dipping
by 65% YoY due to less demand of Girder and Tee iron in Afghanistan.
During the period under review, Re-bar steel, Girder and Tee iron registered the highest growth in local market. Gross margin remained the same; however, muted margin
accretion has been witnessed in net profit margin largely due to 10.34x surge in net
income. SG&A as a percentage of sales stayed the same, which clocked in at 2%, leading to consistent operating profit margin at 9%.
Further, finance cost inched up by 4% with effective tax rate turning out to be 23%.
Thus, the company earned a PAT of PKR 482 million against PKR 245 million in the
same period last year, up 97% YoY.
Girder
Rebar
T-Iron & Girder Rolling
T-Iron own
Sub standard bar & girder
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
FY11
FY12
Local
FY13
FY14
FY15
Exports
Page 3 of 8
Company Report
Past performance:
25
16%
Mughal Steel has shown stellar performance since FY11. Its topline boosted by 5-year 20
CAGR of 42% largely due to surge in volumetric dispatches, which swelled by 38% at 5
-year CAGR against the capacity enhancement of 62% (5-year CAGR). However, aver- 15
age retention prices soured by ~4% during the same period.
14%
Local sales have been growing at an average growth rate of ~94% against an average
decline of ~1.64% in exports, changing the geographical composition of companys
revenue mix in favor of local sales. It is worth noting that plummeting exports are due
to penetration of lower priced steel products from China and Iran coupled with
planned draw down of American troops from Afghanistan.
12%
10%
8%
10
Raw materials along with fuel and power costs contribute on average ~88% of the
total cost of goods manufactured. But, due to efficiency gains, which started to give
dividends in FY14, the raw material coupled with fuel and power component has
dwindled to 84.62% of sales in FY15, assisting in jacking up of gross margins from
9.34% in FY13 to 10.5% in FY15, up 115 bps.
Operating profit margin also expanded by 234 bps in 5 years on back of falling SG&A
expenses as a percentage of sales due to lower administrative expenses. However,
rising distribution costs can be attributed to increasing share of domestic sales in the
overall sales revenue mix.
6%
4%
2%
0
0%
Earnings Per Share (PKR)

Gross Margin
Net Margin
Utilization based on full capacity availabe

120%
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
-
100%
80%
MUGHALs net profit margin expanded by massive ~451 bps since FY11 on account of
lower effective tax rate and financial charges. Hence, in FY15 the company earned a
profit of PKR 721 million, up 104% YoY from the same period last year.
Future Outlook:
Mughal steel is superbly position to fully take advantage of the infrastructural spending undertaken by the government. Having diversified portfolio of steel products,
Mughal steel is capable of catering for the future demand of steel products, given its
potential to increase the utilization level.
We expect the companys sales/earnings to grow at a 4-year CAGR of 18%/40% primarily led by i) surge in volumetric growth following robust construction activity together with potential penetration into retail sector through Mughal Supreme product, which is a at its launching stage.
Further, we expect sales composition to change in favor of re-bar due to its robust
demand in the wake of on-going construction activity. Moreover, we believe local
sales dispatches would continue to dominate overall sales volumes amidst subdue
export activity.
60%
40%
20%
0%
Melting
Rolling
Melting Capacity
Re-Rolling Capacity
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Return on Assets
Return on Equity
Page 4 of 8
Company Report
As far as international steel prices are concerned, we expect slight increase of 2%

over the span of next three years mainly on account of the existence of idle capacity
in China together with lower cost of production of iron ore in Brazil and Australia.
Further we expect gross margin expansion to reach at ~14% in FY17 mainly on the
back of higher spread (i.e. Selling priceinput cost of raw material) and economies of
scale due to high utilization level. However, in the longer period, we expect margins
to stabilize at ~12% level primarily due to rebound in input prices.
London Metal Exchange

450
400
350
300
Scrap prices have already bottomed out in the global market. We believe moderate
uptrend in the prices of scrap, billet and re-bar steel.
250
Further, according company sources, in 1HFY16, the company was producing 5,000 to
6,000 tons of steel per month with 12 hours of available electricity, but now due to
increase in availability of electricity in 3QFY16 to 18 hours, current production stands
at 8,000 to 10,000 tons of steel per month. Hence we expect significant increase in
YoY sales of 3QFY16. Going forward, we assume improvement in the availability of
electricity, given the government lives up to the promise of ending load shedding in
FY18.
150
200
100
50
0
42467 42445 42425 42405 42387 42362 42342
Scrap prices
Further, owing to successful negotiations with LESCO on grid capacity expansion, the
company can significantly increase its production by utilizing idle capacities. Additionally, MUGHAL is at an early state of conducting feasibility study of coal power plant.
Given the companys electricity requirement of 50MW-60MW, coal power plant
would bring down electricity cost by 25%-30%, substantially reducing the cost of production.
Rebar prices
Source: IISPL Research, Bloomberg
We expect companys effective tax rate to converge to marginal tax rate of 33%. Currently, due to availability of tax credit, owing to Article 65-B of Income tax ordinance,
companys is realizing tax asset, lowering its effective tax rate.
Melting capacity
Induction Furnace
Unit Origin
Installation Year Annual Capacity (Tonnes) Current Status
Output
Induction Furnace 7.5 MW
1 Electotherm, India
2014-2015
90,000
In progress
Girder
2 EMT Megatherm, India
2013-2014
144,000
Operational
Rebar
1 Electrotherm, India
1999
60,000
Operational
Rebar
1 Electrotherm, India
1995
48,000
Idle
Rebar/Girder
Submerged Arc Furnace
1 China
42,000
Idle
Ferro
Total No. of units
2007
Total Capacity
384,000
Source: IISPL Research, Company accounts
Re-Rolling Capacity
Re-Rolling Mills
Unit Origin
Installation Year Annual Capacity (Tonnes) Current Staus Output
Tandem Section Mill
1 Italy/Turkey
2013
300,000
Operational Girder
Bar Rolling Mill
1 Italy/Turkey
2010
150,000
Operational Rebar & Tee Iron
Small Section Mills
2 Pakistan
2008
72,000
Operational Rebar
Sheet Re-Rolling SS Blacks
1 India
2003
13,000
Idle
Sheets
Medium Section Re-Rolling Mill
1 India
1994
140,000
Idle
Tee Iron
Total No. of units
Total Capacity
675,000
Source: IISPL Research, Company accounts
Page 5 of 8
Company Report
Financial Summary - MUGHAL

Revenue
CY12A
3,007
CY13A
3,657
CY14A
3,929
CY15A
5,857
CY16E
13,481
CY17E
15,829
CY18E
18,665
CY19E
22,084
Cost of Sales
2,740
3,354
3,561
5,132
12,067
13,557
15,993
18,909
Gross Profit
267
303
367
725
1,414
2,272
2,672
3,175
Operating Profit
238
270
633
1,105
1,242
2,082
2,465
2,939
(135)
(152)
(218)
(350)
(282)
113
120
391
721
938
1,742
2,113
2,578
Stock-in-trade
434
473
2,683
4,812
3,364
3,684
4,489
5,276
Trade Debt
563
231
321
473
835
854
986
1,157
525
308
454
551
563
733
797
Income Statement Items (PKR mn)
Finance Cost
Net Profit
(301)
(346)
(401)
Balance Sheet Items (PKR mn)
Short-Term Investments
22
Loans, Adv., Prepayments
350
86
Total Current Assets
2,182
1,525
4,188
Property, Plant, Equipment
1,835
2,424
2,865
3,286
3,483
3,406
3,523
3,639
Total Assets
4,034
3,969
7,073
11,574
11,252
13,109
15,649
19,316
917
1,322
1,834
837
917
459
Borrowings/LT Debt
8,268
7,750
9,684
12,108
15,659
Trade Payables
647
266
586
4,250
1,177
1,490
1,725
2,008
Total Liabilities
3,300
3,021
5,747
7,495
6,235
6,350
6,777
7,866
Common Stock
74
73
82
89
126
126
126
126
149
129
505
1,229
2,167
3,909
6,022
8,600
Total Equity
4,034
3,969
7,073
9,906
9,584
11,441
13,981
17,648
Total Liabilities and Equity
7,334
6,990
12,820
17,401
15,819
17,790
20,758
25,514
13.85
16.79
20.49
Unappropriated Profit
Key Ratios
1.55
1.62
4.76
8.12
9.88
Book Value Per Share (PKR)
12.52
11.56
16.15
20.40
26.62
40.47
57.26
77.76
Operating Cycle (# of Days)
117
45
43
30
48
43
42
41
Earnings Per Share (PKR)
Current Ratio (x)
1.03
Gross Margin
1.00
1.16
1.28
1.49
1.64
1.79
1.99
8%
10%
12%
10%
10%
14%
14%
14%
2.92%
3.25%
6.66%
5.92%
6.96%
11.01%
11.32%
11.67%
Return on Assets
3%
3%
6%
6%
8%
13%
14%
13%
Return on Equity
15%
13%
29%
30%
28%
34%
29%
26%
Debt/Equity (x)
70%
59%
71%
49%
55%
46%
41%
37%
1.5
2.8
3.4
4.1
Price/Earnings (x)
7.43
5.30
4.37
3.58
Price/Book (x)
2.76
1.81
1.28
0.94
70,950
56,288
Net Margin
0.5
DPS
Operations Figures
Total Production (tonnes)
Total Capacity Utilization
45%
7%
159,503
16%
239,787
23%
275,755
26%
317,118
28%
332,974
29%
349,623
31%
Source: Company Reports, IISPL Research
Page 6 of 8
Company Report
Valuation
MUGHAL is trading at ~7.6x, ~24% discount to the sector average of 10x and 15% discount to its
closest peer ASTL. We have used discounted cash flow method to determine the target price of
PKR 106, giving a considerable upside of 44% along with an expected dividend yield of mere
2%, giving a total return of whopping 46%.
We have used WACC of 11% to value Mughal steel with a cost of equity of 17.5%.
Terminal Value
Terminal Growth Rate
Terminal WACC
Estimated Terminal Free Cash Flow
Terminal Value (FY 2018)
Terminal Value (as of now)
DCF Valuation
NPV of Forecasts
NPV of Terminal Value
Enterprise Value/ cashflow generated by the company
Less: Net Debt
Equity Value
Total Valuation
No. Shares (millions)
Per Share Equity Value
2%
11%
21,337,920,041
236,072,472,059
155,246,935,952
3,878,378,005
12,633,705,669
16,512,083,674
3,246,157,215
13,265,926,459
13,265,926,459
125,800,000
105
Downside Risks
Following are the downside risk to our investment case:
Reduction of gap between the prices of domestic and Chinese steel re-bar products
Rebound in international scrap prices.
Imposition of duties on scrap steel products by the government
Material delay in the enhancement of 132-Kv grid load from 20MW to 60 MW
Dilution of EPS due to conversion of interest-free loan of PKR 1.8 bn from sponsors.
Page 7 of 8
Company Report
Disclaimer
Ismail Iqbal Securities (Pvt.) Limited does not warrant the timeliness, sequence, accuracy or completeness of this information. In no event will Ismail Iqbal Securities
(Pvt.) Limited be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages without limitation which includes lost revenues, lost profits, or loss of
prospective economic advantage resulting from the use of the information or for any omission or inaccuracies resulting from the use of information from this market
Disclosures
Ismail Iqbal Securities (Pvt) Limited, hereinafter referred to as IISPL, acts as a market maker in the security(ies) mentioned in this report. IISPL, its officers, directors,
associates or their close relatives might have financial interests in the security(ies) mentioned in this report, including a significant financial interest (1% of the value
of the securities of the subject company). IISPL is doing business, or seeking to to do business, with the company(ies) mentioned in this report, and therefore
receives/has received/intending to receive compensation from these company(ies) in a non-research capacity.
IISPL has previously or might in the future trade or deal in the subject company in a manner contrary to the recommendation in this report, due to differences of
opinion between the research department and sales desk or traders, and investment time period differences.
The analyst associated with the writing of this report either reports directly to the research department head or is the department head. The department head in
turn reports directly to the Chief Executive Officer of IISPL. The analyst's compensation is not determined by nor based on other business activities of IISPL.
Research reports are disseminated through email or mail/courier to all clients at the same time. No class of client or internal trading person gets this report in
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influenced nor controlled by anyone belonging to a non-research department. Further, the research analysts are headed by the Head of Research, who reports
Recommendations are based on the following conditions:
Rating criteria
Stance
(Target Price/Current Price - 1) > 10%
Positive
(Target Price/Current Price - 1) < -10%
Negative
9% > (Target Price/Current Price -1) > -9%
Neutral
Investors should carefully read the definitions of all rating used within every research reports. In addition, research reports carry an analysts independent view and
investors should ensure careful reading of the entire research reports and not infer its contents from the rating ascribed by the analyst. Ratings should not be used or
relied upon as investment advice. An investors decision to buy, hold or sell a stock should depend on said individuals circumstances and other considerations.
Valuation Methodology
To arrive at our period end target prices, IISPL uses different valuation methadologies including
Discounted cash flow (DCF, DDM)
Relative Valuation (P/E, P/B, P/S etc.)
Equity & Asset return based methadologies (EVA, Residual Income etc.)
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The author(s) of this report hereby certifiies that this report accurately reflects her/his/their own independent opinions and views as of the time this report went into
publication and that no part of her/his/their compensation was, is or will be affected by the recommendation(s) in this report.
The research analyst or any of her/his/their close relatives do not have a financial interest in the securities of the subject company aggregating more than 1% of the
value of the company and the research analyst or their close relatives have neither served as a director/officer in the past 3 years nor received any compensation
from the subject company in the past 12 months. The Research analyst or her/his/their close relatives have not traded in the subject security in the past 7 days and
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Company Report

Catalysts to our investment thesis:

April 13, 2016

Mughal Iron & Steel Ind Ltd

One year price performance

MUGHAL: Topline to shore up earnings

Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

Orange line Project

Sahiwal coal power plant

Contract for supply of steel bars for

Source: IISPL Research

Capacity Utilization of Industry

Ignots & billets

Source: PSM, PSMA

Steel Production by Peers

However, according to the latest data published by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics,

Current Duty Structure

Mughal Dost Steel A.S.

Source: IISPL Research

Source: IISPL Research

Sales Volume Composition

Source: IISPL Research

Earnings Per Share (PKR)

Utilization based on full capacity availabe

Source: IISPL Research

Source: IISPL Research

As far as international steel prices are concerned, we expect slight increase of 2%

London Metal Exchange

Source: IISPL Research, Bloomberg

Installation Year Annual Capacity (Tonnes) Current Status

Induction Furnace 7.5 MW

Induction Furnace 6.0 MW

2 EMT Megatherm, India

Induction Furnace 5.0 MW

Induction Furnace 4.0 MW

Submerged Arc Furnace

Total No. of units

Source: IISPL Research, Company accounts

Installation Year Annual Capacity (Tonnes) Current Staus Output

Tandem Section Mill

Bar Rolling Mill

Operational Rebar & Tee Iron

Small Section Mills

Sheet Re-Rolling SS Blacks

Medium Section Re-Rolling Mill

Total No. of units

Source: IISPL Research, Company accounts

Financial Summary - MUGHAL

Income Statement Items (PKR mn)

Balance Sheet Items (PKR mn)

Loans, Adv., Prepayments

Total Current Assets

Property, Plant, Equipment

Total Liabilities and Equity

Book Value Per Share (PKR)

Operating Cycle (# of Days)

Earnings Per Share (PKR)

Current Ratio (x)

Source: Company Reports, IISPL Research

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