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1. Executive summary
Scotland has a rich history of innovation and has been at the forefront of many global technology breakthroughs over
the last century. Looking to the future, climate change remains one of the most significant global challenges and the
Scottish Government has embraced this challenge with ambitious targets for reducing the countrys carbon emissions.
Whilst Scotland is well on its way to meeting its electricity demand target, progress on heat and transport needs to
accelerate significantly over the next five years. This paper highlights Scotlands distinctive characteristics including
its abundant renewable energy resources, limited power interconnection, high heat demand and urban population
density that present opportunities.
We believe now is the right time for Scotland to move towards an integrated smart energy system that would put
Scotland in a leadership position internationally. Such a vision would see Scotland generating significantly more
power from renewable resources and see power, heat and transport sectors more deeply connected. We draw on the
fact that Denmark has proven an integrated energy system can work and that smart energy technologies are
becoming more available. Clearly Scotland has made a good start, but to accelerate progress we see the need for the
following approach:
A fully integrated approach to Scotlands future energy strategy. The development of this strategy to
be grounded by the principle of integrating the energy vectors of power, heat and transportation.
A comprehensive economic evaluation of the costs and benefits of integrated solutions against todays
energy strategy that will drive new policy solutions and define areas where innovation is needed.
The strategy would include a more holistic approach to infrastructure planning considering the
opportunity for local power, heat and transport demand and generation solutions.
The strategy would also drive new policy and market mechanisms to properly reward the benefits
and efficiencies of decentralised and smart solutions compared to todays energy system.
The strategy would include investment in innovation to develop and test the new solutions before
their full-scale roll-out. An appraisal of the supply chain benefits nationally and export opportunities
internationally would further reinforce the economic value generated.
Key to unlocking Scotlands integrated energy future is targeted innovation and in particular we see the need for:
Further targeted innovation to drive down cost and develop the supply chain to realise Scotlands
renewable potential in offshore wind, wave, tidal and bio-energy.
Innovation in energy storage, which is critical to facilitating further investment in wind and will be a
key enabler in local decentralised energy systems.
Further innovation in technology, business models and installation techniques to facilitate the uptake
of district heating, with a focus on integrating renewable energy and thermal storage.
Innovation in energy management software solutions for buildings, home and the transport sector,
which will be critical to a dynamic, smart and efficient energy system.
More innovative solutions to engage end consumers to make their energy usage and costs more
tangible. The opportunity to innovate on the back of smart meter roll-out is critical.
2. Introduction
Scotland has a rich history of innovation and has been at the forefront of many global technology breakthroughs over
the last century. Scotland also has a rich heritage in energy, being the vanguard of developing North Sea oil and gas
resources, which have benefited the country and led the rest of the world with its skills, experience and capability.
Looking to the future, climate change remains one of the most significant global challenges for society and the planet.
The Scottish Government has embraced this challenge with ambitious and legally-binding targets for reducing the
countrys carbon emissions. These ambitious targets are for Scotland to meet 30 per cent of its overall energy demand
from renewables by 2020 and, within that target, 100 per cent of electricity demand, 11 per cent of non-electrical heat
demand and 10 per cent of transport energy to be supplied from renewable sources. Whilst we recognise the carbon
reduction potential from Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology, this paper considers only the renewable
resources available to Scotland to meet its renewable energy targets.
To date progress against the carbon emission reduction targets has been mixed. Whilst Scotland is well on its way to
meeting its electricity demand target, progress on heat and transport needs to accelerate significantly over the next
five years in order to deliver on existing targets. This challenge is compounded when we consider that heat and
transport accounts for over 70 per cent of total energy consumption.
Electricity
Heat
Transport
Achieved so far
Gap to target
Scotland, relative to other countries in Europe, has a number of unique characteristics that present both challenges
and opportunities. For example, Scotland has the highest heating demand per household in the UK and highest levels
of fuel poverty, yet the country has the highest offshore renewable energy resource in Europe. Scotlands electricity
system is one of the least interconnected in Europe, however despite the countrys low overall population density,
Scotlands urban population density is no different to other countries.
We believe now is the right time for Scotland to move towards an integrated smart energy system and put Scotland in a
leadership position internationally. We know that Denmark has proven an integrated energy system can work. Smart
energy technologies are becoming more available. Our vision for Scotland is driven by the exploitation of abundant
natural renewable resource combined with strong innovation in enabling smart energy system technologies.
Such a vision would see Scotland generating significantly more power from renewable resources. Rather than
curtailing renewable generation, which is when renewable power generators are actively managed to reduce their
generation to help balance the grid, we believe targets should exceed electricity demand and transfer that excess
across the energy vectors of heat and transport. Such transfer of excess electricity can be either direct or through
using hydrogen as an energy carrier.
In a future Scotland, we see power, heat and transport sectors being deeply connected. Energy storage is
commonplace as a key enabling asset to optimise and maximise the contribution from renewable generation.
Residential and commercial buildings are active energy assets meaning their energy demand can be controlled and
optimised against prevailing weather and energy prices. The roll-out of district heating further increases the active
role of residential homes in the energy system. Fuel poverty is eradicated through the adoption of both physical
energy efficiency measures and energy management software that can reduce demand whilst maintaining an
acceptable level of comfort.
In a future Scotland, electric vehicles are widely adopted as homes and businesses have charging infrastructure
that is smart and offers optimal charging and storage services based on personal usage and energy system
balancing requirements.
To realise this new vision, we have an enormous opportunity to propel Scotland into a world leading position by
reimagining its approach to energy through the creation of a joined up integrated energy strategy. Rather than
considering each constituent as a separate entity: electricity, heat and transport energy strategies, we advocate a
new much more integrated approach.
Clearly Scotland has made a good start, but to accelerate progress we see the need for the following approach:
A fully integrated approach to Scotlands future energy strategy.
The development of this strategy to be grounded by the principle of integrating the energy vectors of
power, heat and transportation.
A comprehensive economic evaluation of the costs and benefits of integrated solutions against today
energy strategy that will drive new policy solutions and define areas where innovation is needed.
The strategy would include a more holistic approach to infrastructure planning considering the
opportunity for local power, heat and transport demand and generation solutions.
The strategy would also drive new policy and market mechanisms to properly reward the benefits
and efficiencies of decentralised and smart solutions compared to todays energy system.
The strategy would include investment in innovation to develop and test the new solutions before
their full-scale roll-out. An appraisal of the supply chain benefits nationally and export opportunities
internationally would further reinforce the economic value generated.
Key to unlocking Scotlands integrated energy future is targeted innovation and in particular we see the need for:
Further targeted innovation to drive down cost and develop the supply chain to realise Scotlands
renewable potential in offshore wind, wave, tidal and bio-energy.
Innovation in energy storage, which is critical to facilitating further investment in wind and will be a
key enabler in local decentralised energy systems.
Further innovation in technology, business models and installation techniques to facilitate the uptake
of district heating, with a focus on integrating renewable energy and thermal storage.
Innovation in energy management software solutions for buildings, home and the transport sector,
which will be critical to a dynamic, smart and efficient energy system.
More innovative solutions to engage end consumers to make their energy usage and costs more
tangible. The opportunity to innovate on the back of smart meter roll-out is critical.
We believe Scotland has a significant opportunity to maximise its renewable energy resources and unique
characteristics to meet its climate change targets in a way that delivers significant value to Scotland. A new
integrated energy strategy and a targeted innovation approach will be key to unlocking Scotlands low carbon
innovation potential.
Scotland has unique characteristics that lead to particular challenges and opportunities. These are explored in turn
in more detail in the following sections and can be summarised in the following way:
Significant natural resources for renewable energy It is clear that relative to the size of the
country, Scotland has significant natural resources which can be harnessed for renewable energy.
This is most pronounced in the electrical power generation sector, however significant bio-energy
resource is also present.
Limited interconnection Another major characteristic of Scotland is that, along with the rest of the
UK, it is an island, sitting at the geographic periphery of Europe. As such, interconnections of energy
systems with the rest of Europe are a notable challenge. This means that opportunities to export and
import power into continental Europe are limited, suggesting that alternative national solutions are
required and of greater importance than would be the case of a continental country.
High heat demand and fuel poverty Scottish households have the highest gas demand in the UK
and the highest levels of fuel poverty1. Despite progress in improving levels of insulation, particularly
in social housing, there remain significant challenges in providing homes with affordable heating.
High urban population density Scotland is a small country yet despite having a significantly lower
overall population density than the rest of the UK, a very high proportion of the population lives in
urban areas and within the Central Lowland area in particular. This area of high urban density
provides opportunities for lower carbon and more efficient heating and transport solutions.
Academic and industrial capability Scotland has a significant indigenous offshore energy industry
and associated technical capabilities; it also has leading academic capabilities in particular in the
areas of offshore energy, oil and gas and renewables.
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With this significant renewable electricity generation comes the challenge of integrating such a sizeable intermittent
generation asset into the electricity system. This point can be illustrated using two international comparisons: Last
year, Ireland generated 19 per cent of its electricity from wind but at the same time it experienced curtailment (i.e.
when supply exceeds demand and renewable generation has to be switched off in order to balance the system).
By contrast, Denmark generated 40 per cent of its electricity from wind alone in 2014 (a new world record) and has
regularly exceeded 100 per cent on certain days, with no curtailment. Later in this paper we explore the lessons from
Denmark on how it manages the challenge of intermittent wind generation.
In addition to wind, hydropower, waves and tides, Scotland also has 65 per cent of the UKs forestry resources 4.
Currently 40 per cent of renewable heat is met from biomass5 (heat pumps currently contribute 40 per cent and solar
thermal 20 per cent) and biomass is by far the most common fuel type used in RHI applications in Scotland.6
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3.2 Interconnectedness
As an island nation on the geographic periphery of Europe, Scotland, along with the rest of the UK, has significantly
less interconnectedness with Europe than other countries in continental Europe. By illustration, Demark, with a
population of 5.6 million people, has 5.9GW of interconnection capacity, compared with the UK with a population of
64.3 million people and an interconnection capacity of just 3.7GW. Scotland has no direct international
interconnection capacity, other than to other parts of the UK (2.2GW in total with England and Northern Ireland).
Denmark, because of its close location to neighbouring countries such as Norway and Sweden, has little need for its
own electricity storage capacity. Ireland, on the other hand, has exceptionally low interconnector capacity and
domestic grid capacity, making its current system insufficient to absorb a high level of wind energy. This has led to
regular wind energy curtailment, creating an exceptional challenge for Ireland to reach its target of a 40 per cent
share of renewable electricity by 2020. Scotland, like Ireland, is similarly limited in overseas connection capacity,
and so alternative solutions must be explored nationally to avoid renewable energy curtailment.
Energy storage is one solution that can alleviate curtailment and add additional value to wind generation assets and
the broader energy system. Reducing the intermittency of generation output, which effectively increases the control
over exported generation to the grid would bring significant benefits. These benefits are realised by wind generation
operators, grid operators and ultimately end consumers as the value and cost benefits of a more efficient energy
system are realised.
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TransportScotland (www.transportscotland.gov.uk)
UK Government (www.gov.uk)
2020 Climate Group News (2015) Scottish councils leading way on electric vehicles adoption
http://www.2020climategroup.org.uk/news/scottish-councils-leading-way-electric-vehicle-adoption/
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Energy systems are best considered through the three key vectors of electricity, heating and transport. This report
emphasises the role of integrative approaches to renewable energy across these three energy vectors. Smart energy
technologies are key to facilitating these integrative approaches.
Distributed
energy resources
Smart energy
system control
H2 vehicle
Surplus
heat
Electric vehicle
Scotlands unique characteristics and significant renewable energy resource mean there are real opportunities to
transfer renewable energy across vectors. We believe through adopting a more integrative approach to the energy
system, Scotland can meet is carbon reduction targets and generate significant value.
We believe now is the right time to act because:
Denmark has proven that an integrated energy system can work,
New technology innovations in smart energy systems are becoming more available, and
This represents an opportunity for Scotland to become a leader in new energy systems.
In this section we consider the main technology and innovation trends across Europe and beyond. We consider and
compare Denmark as one country that is a similar size to Scotland and has high levels of generation of renewable energy.
We also explore more broadly the smart energy technologies that form part of the emerging new energy system.
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4.2 Transport
Twenty one per cent of carbon emissions in Scotland currently come from transportation, a proportion which
is broadly in line with the UK as a whole. With the need to decarbonise the transport sector to help meet
climate change targets, there has been extensive discussion and exploration of the use of vehicles fuelled by
non-fossil sources.
The Scottish Government has set a target of almost complete decarbonisation of transport in Scotland by 2050.
The move towards greater renewable generation of electricity can accelerate this carbon reduction by a switch to
greater use of alternative fuelled vehicles.
Electric, hydrogen and bioenergy fuelled vehicles are all potential alternatives to todays combustion engine.
The active management of electric vehicles could be matched to intermittent renewables generation, therefore
further optimising and balancing the overall energy system. Intelligent charging can go further by utilising the
vehicle battery as an energy storage device. An energy system which embeds electric vehicles as a core form of
decentralised energy could benefit from balancing services and offer a form of localised demand management
for homes and businesses. The relatively small energy storage capacity of vehicle batteries and issues related
to battery degradation with added charging and discharging means that the benefits only become tangible
when a significant volume of electric vehicles are plugged in to the system and battery lifecycle issues are
further addressed.
Hydrogen has potential across the electricity, heating and transport sectors as an energy carrier that can provide
the means for coping with fluctuating renewable energy input. Hydrogen produced by the electrolysis of water
powered by renewable energy can be used to integrate electricity with heat and transport through: generating fuel
cell powered grid electricity; blending hydrogen into standard heating gas; producing synthetic hydrocarbon fuels
for transport; as well as the commercialisation of fuel cell electric vehicles.
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Liquid transport fuel options may be well served by the increased development of the biofuel sector. The
utilisation of waste feedstock comprising of agricultural, commercial, industrial and residential bio-waste provides a
compelling low carbon fuel source and where significant advancement in technology development is underway.
There are associated economic and environmental benefits from additional products in the form of bio-chemicals
and materials. It is expected that the heavy duty road vehicle fleet in Europe (trucks and buses) and a significant
proportion of marine transportation, will be best powered by liquid transport fuels rather than alternative renewable
sources. This and the longer term potential for airline fuel provides a clear market opportunity to pursue.
4.3 Demand
Most of todays energy system remains relatively centralised, in that power and fuel for heat is generated centrally
and is distributed in a one-way flow to end consumers in businesses and households.
The emergence and success of the new energy system will require intelligent control and management, which will be
driven by the availability, collection and correct interpretation of large volumes of data. Here are a few examples:
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Scotland has a unique opportunity to maximise its significant renewable resources, making these the foundation for
a new integrated energy system. The following section paints a picture of how a future Scotland might look:
The combination of onshore and offshore renewables, including wave, tidal and wind mean that
Scotland will be generating more renewable energy that powers demand and therefore exceeds its
100 per cent target.
The economics of on shore wind are further improved through the addition of energy storage,
reinforcing it as a major part of the energy mix. Floating wind provides a cost effective solution to
unlocking Scotlands offshore generation.
The countrys island geography means that rather than exporting renewable power to neighbouring
countries, Scotland will be able to transfer power generated across the energy vectors of heat and
transport.
Energy storage plays a key role in the energy system, facilitating the integration of renewable power
into the grid with no curtailment of wind power generation. Many local communities are selfsufficient in energy and the transmission and distribution grid is operating efficiently.
Scotlands scale and high urban density means that low carbon transportation solutions and
community / district heating systems are commonplace in the Central Lowlands. Integrated public
transport is commonplace and alternative fuelled vehicles have been adopted ahead of the rest of the
UK as typical car journeys are shorter thereby not affected by current anxieties over range.
Many of Scotlands urban areas have district heating systems powered initially by gas-fired CHP systems
and optimised with local wind power generation. Over time, gas will be replaced by sustainablysourced biomass to further reduce carbon emissions and mitigate fossil fuel price volatility.
Many of Scotlands public and commercial buildings will be managed to optimise their energy
consumption against their occupancy, prevailing weather and energy market prices.
Fuel poverty has been eliminated as energy consumption in households and businesses is reduced
through intelligent energy management software solutions and the roll-out of energy efficiency
measures. New energy efficiency providers are offering targeted and bespoke solutions to
consumers based on the additional insights gained from smart meter data.
An active new supply chain is providing services in high technology integrated solutions. Both
academia and industry are exporting new services to other countries as Scotland is seen as the
leader in developing new integrated energy system solutions.
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To realise this new vision, we have an enormous opportunity to propel Scotland into a world leading position by
reimagining its approach to energy through the creation of a joined up integrated energy strategy. Rather than
considering separate electricity, heat and transport energy strategies, we see significant value coming for a
new approach.
A fully integrated approach to Scotlands future energy strategy.
The development of this strategy to be grounded by the principle of integrating the energy vectors of
power, heat and transportation.
A comprehensive economic evaluation of the costs and benefits of integrated solutions against today
energy strategy that will drive new policy solutions and define areas where innovation is needed.
The strategy would include a more holistic approach to infrastructure planning considering the
opportunity for local power, heat and transport demand and generation solutions.
The strategy would also drive new policy and market mechanisms to properly reward the benefits and
efficiencies of decentralised and smart solutions compared to todays relatively dumb energy system.
The strategy would include investment in innovation to develop and test the new solutions before
their full-scale roll-out. An appraisal of the supply chain benefits nationally and export opportunities
internationally would further reinforce the economic value generated.
Key to unlocking Scotlands integrated energy future Scotland is targeted innovation, which we believe should contain
the following building blocks:
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Published in the UK: September 2015
The Carbon Trust 2015. All rights reserved. CTC842