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CVEN2002/2702

Week 8

This lecture

7.6 Confidence interval on the mean of a distribution, variance

unknown

7.7 Prediction intervals

7.8 Confidence interval on a proportion

Additional reading: Sections 5.6 (pp. 234-235), 7.2, 7.3 (pp. 303-306),

7.4 in the textbook

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

2 / 36

variance unknown

Previously we showed how to build confidence intervals for the mean

of a distribution, assuming that the population variance 2 was known

; this is probably not very realistic!

Suppose now that the population variance 2 is not known

; we can no longer make practical use of the core result

(a)

N (0, 1)

Z = n X

estimator of the unknown 2 : the sample variance (Slide 38, Week 2)

n

S2 =

1 X

2,

Xi X

n1

i=1

upon observation of a sample x1 , x2 , . . . , xn

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

1

n1

i (xi

x )2

3 / 36

distribution, variance unknown

A natural procedure is thus to replace with the sample standard

deviation S, and to work with the random variable

X

T = n

S

In the case of a normal population, Z was just a standardised version

and was therefore N (0, 1)-distributed

of a normal r.v. X

and S)

However, T is now a ratio of two random variables (X

; T is not N (0, 1)-distributed !

Indeed, T cannot have exactly the same distribution as Z , as the

approximation of the constant by a random variable S introduces

some extra variability

; the random variable T varies more in value from sample to sample

than Z (i.e. Var(T ) > Var(Z ))

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

4 / 36

The first person who realised that replacing with an estimation did

affect the distribution of Z was William Gosset (1876-1937), a British

chemist and mathematician who, in the early 20th century, worked at

the Guinness Brewery in Dublin

As the story goes, another researcher at Guinness had previously

published a paper containing trade secrets of the Guinness brewery,

so that Guinness prohibited its employees from publishing any

scientific papers regardless of the contained information

; Gosset used the pseudonym Student for his publications to avoid

their detection by his employer

He showed that, in a normal population, the exact distribution of T is

the so-called t-distribution with n 1 degrees of freedom:

T tn1

This distribution is now referred to as Students t-distribution (which

might otherwise have been Gossets t-distribution)

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

5 / 36

A random variable, say T , is said to follow the Students t-distribution

with degrees of freedom, i.e.

T t

Its probability density function is given by

+1

2

+1

t2

2

f (t) =

1

+

; ST = R

Note: the Gamma function is given by

Z +

(y ) =

x y 1 ex dx,

for y > 0

integer n,

(n) = (n 1)!

There is no simple expression for the Students t-cdf

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

6 / 36

0.4

f(t)

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.4

0.2

F(t)

0.6

0.3

0.8

1.0

cdf F (t)

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

7 / 36

0.4

f(t)

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

t1

t2

t5

t10

t50

N(0,1)

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

8 / 36

It can be shown that the mean and the variance of the t -distribution

are

(for > 2)

E(T ) = 0

and

Var(T ) =

2

The Students t distribution is similar in shape to the standard normal

distribution in that both densities are symmetric, unimodal and

bell-shaped, and the maximum value is reached at 0

However, the Students t distribution has heavier tails than the normal

; there is more probability to find the random variable T far away

from 0 than there is for Z

This is more marked for small values of

As the number of degrees of freedom increases, t -distributions look

more and more like the standard normal distribution

In fact, it can be shown that the Students t distribution with degrees

of freedom approaches the standard normal distribution as

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

9 / 36

Similarly to what we did for the Normal distribution, we can define the

quantiles of any Students t-distribution:

tdistribution

0.4

0.3

P(T > t; ) = 1

f(t)

1

0.0

t;1 = t;

0.1

distribution, the symmetry of any

t -distribution implies that

0.2

for T t

t, 4

t-distribution critical values tables

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

10 / 36

distribution, variance unknown

So we have, for any n 2,

X

n

tn1

S

Note: the number of degrees of freedom for the t-distribution is the

number of degrees of freedom associated with the estimated variance

S 2 (Slide 38, Week 2)

T =

proceeding essentially as we did when 2 was known

We may write

X

P tn1;1/2 n

tn1;1/2 = 1

S

or

S

S

P X tn1;1/2 X + tn1;1/2

=1

n

n

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

11 / 36

distribution

; if x and s are the sample mean and sample standard deviation of

an observed random sample of size n from a normal distribution, a

confidence interval of level 100 (1 )% for is given by

s

s

x tn1;1/2 , x + tn1;1/2

n

n

This confidence

interval is sometimes called

h

i t-confidence interval, as

Because tn1 has heavier tails than N (0, 1), tn1;1/2 > z1/2 , n

; this reflects the extra variability introduced by the estimation of

(less accuracy)

Note: One can also define one-sided 100 (1 )% t-confidence

i

h

intervals

, x + tn1;1 sn and x tn1;1 sn , +

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

12 / 36

Example

An article in Materials Engineering describes the results of tensile adhesion

test on 22 U 700 alloy specimens. The load at specimen failure is as

follows (in megapascals):

7.6, 8.1, 11.7, 14.3, 14.3, 14.1, 8.3, 12.3, 15.9, 16.4,

11.3, 12.0, 12.9, 15.0, 13.2, 14.6, 13.5, 10.4, 13.8,

15.6, 12.2, 11.2

Construct a 99% confidence interval for the true average load at failure for

this type of alloy

Elementary computations give

x = 12.67 MPa

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

13 / 36

Normal QQ Plot

2

Theoretical Quantiles

support for the assumption that the

population is normally distributed

10

12

14

16

Sample Quantiles

find t21;0.995 = 2.831. The resulting CI is

2.47

s

s

x tn1;1/2 , x + tn1;1/2 = 12.67 2.831

n

n

22

= [11.18, 14.16]

; we are 99% confident that the true average load at failure for this type of

alloy lies between 11.18 MPa and 14.16 MPa

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

14 / 36

distribution, variance unknown

What if the population is not normal ?

As in the case 2 known, we can rely on the Central Limit Theorem

a

which asserts that, for n large, Z = n X

N (0, 1) to deduce a

result like

a

X

tn1

T = n

S

from which we could find a CI on for n large enough

However, recall that, when is large, t is very much like N (0, 1)

; in large samples, estimating with S has very little effect on the

distribution of T , to which the approximation by the standard

normal distribution is more than enough:

a

T N (0, 1)

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

15 / 36

distribution

Consequently, if x and s are the sample mean and standard deviation

of an observed random sample of large size n from any distribution, an

approximate confidence interval of level 100 (1 )% for is

s

s

x z1/2 , x + z1/2

n

n

This expression holds regardless of the population distribution, as long

as n is large enough ; it is called a large-sample confidence interval

Generally, n should be at least 40 to use this result reliably (the CLT

usually holds for n 30, but a larger sample size is recommended

because replacing by S still results in some additional variability)

As usual, corresponding one-sided confidence intervals could be

defined: (, x + z1 sn ] and [x z1 sn , +)

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

16 / 36

distribution: example

Example

An article in Transactions of the American Fisheries Society reports the

results of a study to investigate the mercury contamination in largemouth

bass. A sample of 53 fishes was selected from some Florida lakes, and

mercury concentration in the muscle tissue was measured (in ppm):

1.23, 0.49, 1.08, . . ., 0.16, 0.27

Find a confidence interval on , the mean mercury concentration in the

muscle tissue of fish

An histogram and a quantile plot for the data are displayed below

; both plots indicate that the distribution of mercury concentration may not

be normally distributed (positively skewed)

But anyway, the sample is large enough (n = 53) to use the Central Limit

Theorem and compute an approximate confidence interval for

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

17 / 36

distribution: example

histogram

Normal QQ Plot

1.0

1

0

Theoretical Quantiles

0.6

0.4

Density

0.8

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

0.0

0.2

concentration

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Sample Quantiles

h ppm and s = 0.3486 ppm.iA large

sample confidence interval is given by x z1/2 sn , x + z1/2 sn

With z0.975 = 1.96 and the above values, we have

0.3486

0.3486

0.525 1.96

, 0.525 + 1.96

= [0.4311, 0.6189]

53

53

; we are 95% confident that the true average mercury concentration in the

muscle tissue of the fishes is between 0.4311 and 0.6189 ppm

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

18 / 36

The several situations leading to different confidence intervals for the

mean can be summarised as follows:

The first question is: Is the population normal? (check from a

histogram and a quantile plot, for instance)

if yes, is known ?

I

h

i

x z1/2 n , x + z1/2 n

if no, use an exact t-confidenceh interval:

i

x tn1;1/2 s , x + tn1;1/2 s

n

h confidence interval:

i

x z1/2 sn , x + z1/2 sn ,

(provided the sample size is large, say n 40)

What if the sample size is small and the population is not normal ?

; check on a case by case basis (beyond the scope of this course)

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

19 / 36

In some situations, we may be interested in predicting a future

observation of a variable

; different than estimating the mean of the variable !

; instead of confidence intervals, we are after

100 (1 )% prediction interval on a future observation

As an illustration, suppose that X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn is a random sample from

a normal population with mean and standard deviation

; we wish to predict the value Xn+1 , a single future observation

As Xn+1 comes from the same population as X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn ,

information contained in the sample should be used to predict Xn+1

; the predictor of Xn+1 , say X , should be a statistic

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

20 / 36

We desire the predictor to have expected prediction error equal to 0:

E(Xn+1 X ) = 0

E(X ) =

We said that an efficient unbiased estimator for was the sample

mean, so we take it as predictor:

n

X

=1

Xi

X =X

n

i=1

) = Var(Xn+1 ) + Var(X

)

Var(Xn+1 X ) = Var(Xn+1 X

2

1

2

2

= +

= 1+

n

n

)

(because Xn+1 is independent of X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn and so of X

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

21 / 36

are normally distributed (normal

Finally, because both Xn+1 and X

is also normally distributed

population), the prediction error Xn+1 X

Hence,

Z =

Xn+1 X

q

N (0, 1)

1 + n1

S yields

Xn+1 X

T = q

tn1

S 1 + n1

Manipulating Z and T as we did previously for CI leads to the

100 (1 )% z- and t-prediction intervals on the future observation:

q

q

1

1

x z1/2 1 + n , x + z1/2 1 + n

q

q

1

1

x tn1;1/2 s 1 + n , x + tn1;1/2 s 1 + n

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

22 / 36

Remark 1:

The length of a confidence interval on of level 100 (1 )% is

2 z1/2 n

(see Slide 25 Week 7)

The length of aq

prediction interval on Xn+1 of level 100 (1 )% is

2 z1/2

1+

1

n

confidence intervals for , because there is more variability associated

with one observation than with an average

Remark 2:

As n gets larger (n ), the length of the CI for decreases to 0 (we

are more and more accurate when estimating ), but this is not the

case for a prediction interval: the inherent variability of Xn+1 never

vanishes, even when we have observed many other observations

before!

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

23 / 36

Example

Reconsider the example on Slide 13. Find a 99% confidence interval for the

true average load at failure. We plan to test a 23rd specimen. Find a 99%

prediction interval on the load at failure for this specimen.

From the data (n = 22) we had found x = 12.67 MPa and s = 2.47 MPa, and

a 99% confidence interval for was [11.18, 14.16]

Now, t21;0.995 = 2.831 (from the table), so that a 99% prediction interval for the

next observation is

"

# "

#

r

r

1

1

x tn1;1/2 s 1 +

= 12.67 2.831 2.47 1 +

n

22

= [5.52, 19.82]

; we are 99% confident that the failure load for the next specimen will be

between 5.52 and 19.82 MPa

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

24 / 36

Many engineering problems deal with proportions, percentages or

probabilities:

we are concerned with the proportion of defectives in a lot, with the

percentage of certain components which will perform satisfactorily

during a stated period of time, or with the probability that a newly

produced item meets some quality standards

; qualitative information can also be included in statistical studies!

It should be clear that problems concerning proportions, percentages

or probabilities are really equivalent: a percentage is merely a

proportion multiplied by 100, and a probability is a proportion in a

(infinitely) long series of trials (Slide 13, Week 3)

We would like to learn about , the proportion of the population that

has a characteristic of interest, but as usual all we have is just a

sample of size n from that population

; inference about

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

25 / 36

Estimation of a proportion

In this situation, the random variable to study is

1 if the individual has the characteristic of interest

X =

0 if not

which is Bernoulli distributed (see Slide 9, Week 5), with parameter

being the value of interest:

X Bern()

The random sample X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn is a set of n independent Bern()

random variables

; the number Y of individuals of the sample with the characteristic is

Y =

n

X

Xi Bin(n, )

i=1

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

=Y

P

n

Dr Justin Wishart

26 / 36

Estimation of a proportion

is obviously a natural candidate for

This sample proportion P

estimating the population proportion

From the properties of the Binomial distribution, we know that

E(Y ) = n

and

Var(Y ) = n(1 )

=

so that E(P)

n

1

n2

Var(Y ) =

n(1)

n2

(1)

n

Hence, P

=

= (1 ) ( 0 as n )

E(P)

and

Var(P)

n

q

n

UponPobservation of a random sample x1 , x2 , . . . , xn , in which

y = ni=1 xi individuals have the characteristics, an estimate of is

y

=

p

n

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

27 / 36

Sampling distribution

using the Binomial

We could make inference about from p

distribution of Y . However, it is probably easier to use the Central

Limit Theorem (Slides 33-34, Week 7). Indeed:

n

X

=Y =1

Xi ,

P

n

n

i=1

so that P

guarantees that

P

a

np

N (0, 1)

(1 )

a

We also know that the quality of the approximation depends on the

symmetry of the initial distribution of the Xi s, here Bern()

(1 p

) > 5

; should not be too close to 0 or 1 ; empirical rule: np

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

28 / 36

As the sampling distribution

np

P

(1 )

N (0, 1)

a

is just a particular case of n X

N (0, 1), we can use (almost)

directly the large-sample confidence interval we derived for a mean

Specifically, we have that

P z1/2

np

z1/2

(1 )

'1

or

r

z1/2

P P

(1 )

+ z1/2

P

n

(1 )

n

!

'1

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

29 / 36

that is the factor

Unfortunately, the standard error of P,

contains the unknown

(1)

,

n

that is, to use the estimated standard error of the estimator (see Slide

r

12, Week 7)

(1 p

)

p

\

sd(P) =

n

in the expression of the confidence interval

is the sample proportion in an observed random

Consequently, if p

sample of size n, an approximate two-sided confidence interval of level

100 (1 )% for is given by

"

#

r

r

(1 p

)

(1 p

)

p

p

z1/2

+ z1/2

p

,p

n

n

As this is based on the CLT and requires n large, it is a large sample

confidence interval for

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

30 / 36

We may also find one-sided large-sample confidence intervals for the

proportion by a simple modification of the previous development

We find:

"

(1 p

)

p

n

(1 p

)

p

,1

n

r

+ z1

0, p

and

"

r

z1

p

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

31 / 36

is the estimate of , we can define the error in estimating by p

as

Since p

|. From Slide 29, we are approximately 100 (1 )% confident

e = |p

r

that this error is less than

(1 )

z1/2

n

In situations where the sample size can be selected, we may choose n to be

100 (1 )% confident that the error is less than any specified value e:

z1/2 2

n=

(1 )

(compare Slide 26, Week 7)

e

; this depends on , for which no information is available at this point

Idea: use an upper bound which holds for any value of

Actually, (1 ) 1/4, with equality for = 1/2, thus with

z1/2 2

n=

2e

we are at least 100 (1 )% confident that this error is less than e and this,

regardless of the value of (this is very conservative, though)

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

32 / 36

Example

In a random sample of 85 car engine crankshaft bearings, 10 have a surface

finish that is rougher than the specifications allow. a) Find a 95% confidence

interval on the true proportion of produced bearings that exceeds the

roughness specification; b) How large is a sample required if we want to be

95% confident that the error in estimating is less than 0.05?

= yn = 10

a) The estimate of is p

85 = 0.118. Thus, the estimated standard

error is

r

r

p

(1

p

)

0.118 (1 0.118)

\

=

sd(P)

=

= 0.035

n

85

and an approximated two-sided 95% confidence interval for is

\

= [0.118 1.96 0.035] = [0.049, 0.186]

z0.975 sd(

p

P)

; we are 95% confident that the true proportion of produced bearings

outside specifications is between 0.049 and 0.186

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

33 / 36

Example

In a random sample of 85 car engine crankshaft bearings, 10 have a surface

finish that is rougher than the specifications allow. a) Find a 95% confidence

interval on the true proportion of produced bearings that exceeds the

roughness specification; b) How large is a sample required if we want to be

95% confident that the error in estimating is less than 0.05?

b) the previous CI has width 0.137, which is quite large for a CI for . If we

want a CI of width at most 2 0.05, we need

2

z1/2 2

1.96

n=

=

= 384.16

2e

2 0.05

; we need at least 385 observations

Note that this number would guarantee the required accuracy, regardless of

the true value of ; this is why it is so high (conservative)

= 0.118 as preliminary estimate of , we would have

(Using p

2

(1 p

) = (1.96/0.05)2 0.118 0.882 = 159.93)

n ' z1/2 /e p

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

34 / 36

The previous confidence does not work well near the boundary, i.e.,

near 0 or 1. Recall the probability statement

!

P

P z1/2 n p

z1/2 ' 1

(1 )

The three-way inequality is a quadratic function of , solving that

equation gives the following confidence interval

s

(1 p

)

1

p

1

+ w z1/2 (1 w)

(1 w)p

+w

2

2

2

n + z1/2

4(n + z1/2

)

where

w=

2

z1/2

2

n + z1/2

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

35 / 36

Objectives

Now you should be able to:

Construct z- and t-confidence intervals on the mean of a normal

distribution, advisedly using either the normal distribution or the

Students t distribution

Construct large sample confidence intervals on a mean of an

arbitrary distribution with unknown variance

Explain the difference between a confidence interval and a

prediction interval

Construct prediction intervals for a future observation in a normal

population

Construct confidence intervals on a population proportion

Recommended exercises: ; Q7, Q9, p.301, Q13, Q15 p.302, Q20

p.303, Q35 p.319, Q39 p.320, Q43(a-b) p.320, Q55 p.328, (optional)

Q71, Q73 p.340, Q55 p.238

CVEN2002/2702 (Statistics)

Dr Justin Wishart

36 / 36

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