Taiwans Lost Decade

RoCAF Fighter Dilemma and the Future Prospects for a Next Generation Fighter

Introduction:

aiwan and China has always been neck in neck race for a better fighter to counter each other
since the ending of the Chinese Civil War in 1949. Although by early-1990s, RoCAF started to
get advantage over the PLAAF with new indigenous made fighter called the AIDC F-CK-1
Ching Kuo IDF which they ordered 250 of them for light
multirole missions. In 1992, U.S government authorized
the sale of 150 General Dynamics F-16A/B Fighting Falcon
Block 20 models which were more advanced than most of
the newer F-16C/D Fighting Falcons and also the same
year they ordered 48 Mirage 2000-5EI and 12 Mirage
2000-5DI from France for interception and air superiority
roles. China reacted to these purchases from Taiwan with
their introduction of the Shenyang J-8II Finback and later
Figure 1: AIDC F-CK-1A Ching Kuo of the
the Su-27 Flanker air superiority fighter from Russia in
Republic of China Air Force (RoCAF). (Photo &
which they also gotten a license deal to make them under
Credit goes to Toshiro Aoki via Wikimedia
the name as the J-11. PLAAF have gotten the new Flankers
Commons)
and Finbacks that they have acquired, but Taiwan had more of advantage or betters them in numbers.
Edge was Slowly Slipping:
By the late 1990s, Taiwan was retiring their remaining older fighter such as the Lockheed F-104
Starfighters and started to upgrade their younger F-5E/F Tiger IIs with newer systems and avionics.
Plans for massive upgrades for their F-5E/F fleet such as the Tiger 2000 and F-5E-SX never went
anywhere since they considered them as a waste of money and the aircraft were going to be replaced in a
few years anyway. In addition, the RoCAF decided to cut back on the Ching Kuo IDF fighter from 250
airframes to 130 due to funding issues. Despite the cutbacks on the Tiger upgrades and the reduced IDF
order, Taiwan was looking to purchase additional 60 Mirage 2000s from France and was also looking at
other next-generation fighters such as the new Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter 2000 Typhoon, and even the
Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor as a replacement for their remaining F-5E/F Tiger IIs.

info@defenceaviation.com

This was also becoming important issue after the Sino-Taiwanese Crisis in 1995/1996 during Lees visit
to the U.S and Taiwanese election and growing threat from PLAAF newer and next-generation fighters
such as the Sukhoi Su-30MKK Flanker, Chengdu FC-1, Chengdu J-10, and the new 5th generation XXJ or
J-12 (later the J-20) that was under development at the time. This right here put Taiwanese fighter edge
slowly slipping away and it was getting worst as time progress.

Fighter Proposals that Never Went Nowhere:

By the late-1990s, the major defense suppliers like France and U.S for example supplied Taiwan
back in the early-1990s started to shift away from
them due to Chinas opposition or wanted to better
their relations with China instead. RoCAF plans to
buy additional 60 Mirage 2000-5EI/DIs and
interest in the Dassault Rafale fighters fell through
when the new French Prime Minister Jacques
Chirac wanted to improve relations with China
along with Kang Ding frigate corruption scandal
which made relations between France and Taiwan
much worst. This was becoming true with most
Western European nations, which also declined
arms deals with Taiwan due to Chinese opposition
Figure 2: Dassault Mirage 2000-5EI (se 2014) of the RoCAF
at the CCK airshow in 2014 is one of the 48 single-seat
in which both the Eurofighter Typhoon and the
Mirage 2000-5EI's delivered to Taiwan along with 12 Mirage
JAS-39 Gripen along with other defense deals seem 2000-5DI's in 1997. Credits and photo goes to Solo Wing
very doubtful. While not as bad France and other
European nations, the U.S also started to slow down on arms deals with Taiwan even despite U.S
President Bill Clinton sort of anti-Chinese policies during his first term.
However, after his re-election, President Clinton decided to seek better relationship with China in
which in which arm sales to Taiwan was cut by 50%. Nevertheless, arms deals from the U.S continued on
definitely after the 1995/1996 Taiwan Straits Crisis, but most of these were helicopters and SAMs such
as OH-58D, AH-1W, Patriot PAC-2 SAM/ABM systems, E-2 Hawkeyes, and other equipment. By the
start of the 21st Century, Taiwan started to look elsewhere for new fighters to counter PLAAF and PLAN
ever-growing fighter and strike fleet. Taiwan started too looked at both Russia and Ukraine for both new
and used fighters such as the Su-27 or Su-30 series multirole strike aircraft. While this wasnt the first
time that Taiwan looked to Russia for new fighters since they were looking to buy some MiG-29
Fulcrums from them in 1992 and later some Su-27 Flankers in the early-1990s, but both deals were
killed off by political issues from either Russian government or U.S political interference. Still, this was
not going to happen since Russia wanted to have better ties with China instead. Regardless of these
setbacks, Taiwan looked to Ukraine, which was more willing to supply Taiwan with combat weaponry
like fighters, and was planning to send their MiG-29 and Su-27 to a Taiwanese Airshow in 2003. Despite
these generous plans to send them, none of those fighters from Ukraine did not show up at the Taipei
Airshow due to political issues.

info@defenceaviation.com

Fighter Proposals that Never Were:

When President George W. Bush came into office in 2001, relations with Taiwan have gotten
warmer and better. Bush announced a massive multi-billion dollar arms deal with Taiwan, which included
twelve P-3C Orions, Kidd class destroyers, Patriot PAC-2/3 SAM/ABM systems, 8 diesel submarines,
and other major military equipment. Even though this deal did not include any new fighters, but it was a
new start in the right direction between the U.S and Taiwans relationship. Later that year, RoCAF started
to show some serious interest in the Boeing (formally McDonnell Douglas) AV-8B Harrier II+ STOVL
multirole fighters in which they wanted between 60-100 of them because of the growing threats against
their airfields from Chinese ballistic and cruise missiles. Despite the Harrier II+ was out of production,
Boeing did approved to bring the aircraft back into production and even planned sending the tooling
equipment to Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation (or AIDC) if Taiwan agreed to the deal.

Be that may as it be, the RoCAF and Taiwanese

government officials had other plans and later dropped
the Harrier deal and decided to focus on the nextgeneration F-35B Lightning II STOVL as there nextgeneration fighter instead. Despite that, it would be more
of a decade before it could operation and that if the U.S
was going to sell the advanced fighter. RoCAF plans to
get the F-22 Raptor pretty much became wishful thinking
after the U.S government banned the sale of the advanced
fighter to foreign nations even to their closer allies like
Figure 3. Figure 3. RoCAF F-16A Block 20 Fighting
Israel and Japan due to sensitive equipment in the
Falcon of the 21st TFG. The F-16 Block 20/25's are
due to be upgraded similar to the Block 50/52+. Photo Raptor. In 2006, Taiwan was interested in buying forty
and credit goes to Solo Wing.
ex-USAF F-15C/D Eagles for air defense roles since the
Mirage 2000s were mostly grounded due to lack of spare parts. There was some reports that Taiwan were
also interested in the F-15E Strike Eagle for multirole strike roles, but later those reports came to nothing
and the F-15C/D proposal was denied by the U.S government.

New F-16, the Ongoing Drama:

While Taiwan were still having a hard time getting new fighters, in which it was due to the
political disputes between U.S and Taiwan along with other countries not willing to sell military aircraft
because the fear of political and economic backlash from China. Finally, the U.S and Taiwan along with
the KMT DPP finally agreeing and accepted the deal to purchase 66 F-16C/D Block 50/52+ in 2007. A
number of defense officials on both sides of the ocean thought this deal would be finalized finally after
years in limbo due to diplomatic fighting mostly with Taiwanese politicians, but this deal was not to be. A
few months before the 2008 Summer Olympics in China, Bush Administration put a halt to the F-16 deal
along with putting an arms freeze on all arms deals as a punishment to the long delays from Taiwanese
government officials. However, a lot of defense officials and the media was thinking this arms freeze was
to keep China happy during the Olympics.

info@defenceaviation.com

Later that year, the arm freeze was removed, but the Bush Administration was still delaying the arms
deals due to ongoing issues politically. It was not until a few years later the arms deals were back on track
like Patriot PAC-3 SAMs, AH-64D Longbow Apaches, P-3C Orions, and other military equipment that
would be given to Taiwan, but still, the U.S government was still reluctant to sell the 66 F-16C/D to them.
The ongoing drama over the F-16s has become a massive issue between Taiwanese and U.S relationship
over this political rife. Nonetheless, the Obama Administration came up with a solution to keep everyone
happy and instead of selling them 66 brand new F-16C/Ds, they would proposed to have the remaining
F-16A/B Block 20s to Block 50/52+ standard instead for over $5 billion. Therefore, the deal would
include either Northrop Grumman SABR AESA radars, AIM-120C-7 AMRAAMS, AIM-9X
Sidewinders, JDAMs, new avionics, ECM, and other things. However, the deal was 50/50 because a
number of Taiwanese politicians, defense officials and even the media seen this deal as massive rip off
while some Taiwanese politicians and U.S government were happy about the deal. Nevertheless, the F-16
upgrade could not fixed the depleting fighter numbers that the RoCAF was suffering from. Their F-5E/F
Tiger II fleet is desperately needing a replacement, and the Mirage 2000 fleet was scheduled to be retired
later this decade due to high maintenance cost and lack of spare parts. The IDF F-1-CK Ching Kuo
fighters that were recently upgraded to also supplanted the Tiger fleet.
The Brave Hawk:
With the F-16s becoming ongoing dilemma, Republic of the China Air Force and the Taiwanese
government decided to upgrade their IDF fighters right away to replace their F-5 and the AT-3
trainers/attack aircraft. AIDC decided to revived the LIFT variant of the Ching Kuo fighter which was
originally planned for both RoCAF and export market like the Philippines back in the late 1990s and
early 2000s. Another proposal was to upgrade vast majority of the Ching Kuos up to the C/D standard,
which features conformal fuel tanks (CFT), advanced avionics, lower radar cross section, (RCS) and more
enhanced ground attack capability compared to the older A/B models. AIDC tested two prototypes of the
F-CK-1C/D in the mid-2000s, but it wasnt until 2006 that
Taiwanese government approved the new upgrade for the Ching
Kuo. The new given name for the F-CK-1C/D is called the
Hsiung Ying or Brave Hawk in 2007 by former Taiwanese
president Chen Shui-Bian.
Under the new $500 million upgrade, Phase 1 of the plan
included 71 Ching Kuos being brought up to Brave Hawk
standards till 2014 while the remaining 56 being completed in
2017. The F-CK-1C/D prototypes did fly with small conformal Figure 4. Two AIDCF-CK-1C/D Hsiung
fuel tanks for added fuel, but were later dropped due to causing Ying or Brave Hawk prototypes with
and Sky Sword 1. Photo & Credit
drag to the aircraft. However, the Brave Hawk weapon systems CFTs
goes to Chang-Song Wang via Wikimedia
were also updated and are now able to carry the new TC-2A
Commons
anti-radiation missile and the Wan Chien long-range air surface
missile fitted with cluster munitions. Phase 1 of newly upgraded F-CK-1C/D Brave Hawks entered
service in January of 2014 with the 443rd Tactical Fighter Wing, while Phase 2 will with the 427th Tactical
Fighter Wing in 2017.

info@defenceaviation.com

Future:
With both the F-CK-1C/D and F-16 upgrade programs is underway or almost complete, but other
problems remains since the Mirage 2000-5EIs and F-5E/F will be on their way out later this decade due
spare shortages and obsolescence. With this in hand, RoCAF will be left with over 200 fighters in service
by 2020 which would not be efficient at all. A top of that, getting new fighters are getting a lot tougher
year by year since the U.S is moving closer towards for a better relationship with China.
Because of those issues, Taiwan have been looking to develop a next-generation fighter dating back since
the mid-2000s. AIDC has been leading the charge for a next-generation indigenous multirole fighter. In
2007, AIDC announced the Advanced Defense Fighter program also known as ADF or F-CK-X which
was a (possibly is) a multirole fighter to supplement or even
replace the older fighters such as the F-CK-1, F-16, Mirage
2000, and the F-5. However, the project was reported to be
canceled after the announcement of getting the new F16C/Ds instead. In an AIDCs F-CK-1 IDF video
documentary that was released in 2007, a model of an
unknown new fighter or LIFT design which is seen next to
AIDC executive.
Around 2009, China Times reported on that AIDC
and Russian aerospace companies were looking to work
together on a new next-generation STOL fighter the RoCAF.
Few years later, Taiwan announced a new request for a
Figure 5. A photo of an unknown AIDC fighter or
new light advanced trainer/fighter to replace the AT-3 and
LIFT shown on the left side next to an AIDC official.
The aircraft is reported to be the AT-5 by some in the
the F-5s. Some in the Taiwanese defense media and
defense industry in Taiwan. There are some reports
industry has dubbed it the AT-5 which is reported to be
that AT-5 may had from Russian defense contractors.
Photo and credit goes to AIDC.
similar to the F-CK-1 Ching Kuo, but with being singleengine design instead. In March of 2013, Taiwanese
Ministry of Defense came out and announced almost a $17 billion spending proposal for new diesel
submarines and a 5th generation stealth fighter since plans on getting those two systems were becoming
nearly impossible to buy from other nations due to fears that those will anger China if they were sold to
Taiwan.
In the mid-2014, Defense News released a report about the stalled talks of Russia selling
the Su-35 Flanker to China along with S-400s SAMs. However, in the report, it also mentions the
Taiwanese new fighter proposal called the Super IDF. The report also mentions about the possible sale of
new engines like the General Electric F404 or F414 engines for the new Taiwanese fighter. So the
possibly of a new fighter coming out Taiwan this decade could be great and needed at this moment since I
liked I said earlier, the Mirage 2000 and the F-5E/F will be gone by early-2020s. Additional reports
started too surfaced about the new domestic next-generation fighter and proposals to buy the Lockheed
Martin F-35B Lightning II in the April edition of Air Force Monthly by both Gert Kromhout and Stephan
De Bruijn. According to them, RoCAF dropped the proposal to buy 66 F-16C/D Block 50/52+ Fighting
Falcons for both the F-35B and a new indigenous long-range stealth fighter with inflight refueling
capability (Kromhout & Bruijn, 2015).

info@defenceaviation.com

These new fighters would be used to replace the older F-5E/F and Mirage 2000 which are due to retire in
2019/2020. Despite these proposals, the problem remains if the U.S willing to sell the F-35B or not in the
near future since they have been denying them F-16C/Ds for almost a decade. Also problems remain if
Taiwan can build their own next-generation fighter because some equipment such as engines and certain
systems such as radar would have to be imported from other nations making the issue due to political
situations.
During the TADTE 2015, Taiwan revealed a lot of new military equipment to world which included one
of them being called the XAT-5. The AIDC XAT-5 is based off their F-CK-1 IDF aircraft which will be
used for advanced training and more likely secondary attack/fighter role to. However, Taiwan on the
other hand prefers the KAI T-50 Golden Eagle instead bringing the XAT-5 into doubt. But this doesnt
mean that South Korea will allow the sale to go through definitely since South Korean government has
better ties with China in the last few
years. Along with the news of F-16V
upgrade going through and with
orders of the Sniper IV guidance pods
have been going through smoothly.
Even though, a lot of domestically
made Taiwanese defense systems
were shown during TADTE 2015,
nothing was ever showed or
mentioned about their newly
indigenous fighter at the expo. Yet
though, Taiwan is known keep a lot of
their defense systems underwraps in
recent years making the possiblty that
Figure 6. Model of the AIDC XAT-5 Advanced Trainer aircraft which was
the new fighter will be revealed to the
first revealed at TADTE 2015. (Picture & Credits goes to Henry Existence)
world sometime in the near future.

Conclusion:
Just like the diesel submarines, the deal on getting new fighters has turned into massive merry go
round for the Taiwanese government and Ministry of Defense. While there are many next-generation
fighters like the Rafale, Eurofighter, Gripen, and even Russian aircraft, but the main problem is a lot of
nations selling these said fighters are going to sell them fearing backlash from China. Even the Taiwans
main buyer of defense weapon systems, the United States have been backing off and refusing to sell them
new fighters such as the F-16 to keep China happy in recent years.
This has put Taiwan in a quagmire situation in which they have to become mostly self-reliant on
itself for its own defense. Since 2005, Taiwan have been boosting their domestic arms market which
includes new warships, new armored vehicles and artillery such as the CM-32 Clouded Leopard and
Lightning Bolt 2000 MLRS, and missile production such as the HF-3 supersonic AShM and the Sky Bow
III SAM. However, the problem reminds for some of their defense needs like diesel submarines and
fighter planes.

info@defenceaviation.com

The biggest problem for a new indigenous fighter are the engines since no nations want to
provide them advanced engines because the issues with China or fearing that the engine technology will
fall into Chinese hands due espionage or traitors who are selling them plans.
Nonetheless, the U.S is probably the only nation to sell them advanced engines to them or make
sell them the license to make them like the Honeywell/ITEC/AIDC F125-70 engines that power the
indigenous Ching Kuo fighter. Since Taiwan does has the history and technology to make the jet engines,
the full indigenous route is another way to go for their development of a new indigenous fighter. Radar
technology is another issue, but Taiwanese radar development have been improving in the last decade
definitely with SAMs and ABM radar systems. Despite that, Taiwan have not never ever built a radar
system for aircraft or a fighter for that matter. So making an AESA or even PESA for an aircraft could be
a challenge for them, but still not an impossible task.
Either way, with allies and support dwindling for Taiwan as years pass by, its best for them to
support and defend themselves definitely as the Chinese forces are getting more powerful as years goes
by.

info@defenceaviation.com

Reference
AFP. (2003, August 1). Su-27, MiG-29 fighters likely to be Exhibited in Taiwan Air Show.
Cheng, Dean. "F-16C/D Fills Taiwans Fighter Need." The Heritage Foundation. N.p., 5 June 2013. Web.
24 Jan. 2015.
Doyle, Andrew. "Taiwan STOVL need could Extend Harrier production." Flight Global. N.p., 21 Aug.
2001. Web. 24 Jan. 2015.
Hannon, Brent. "AIDC seeks $200m for new indigenous fighter." Flight Global. N.p., 21 Aug. 2001.
Web.
24 Jan. 2015.
Hannon, B., & Lewis, P. (1997, August 13). Taiwan Starts to Consider Fifth-Generation Fighters.
Flight International, 17.
Hannon, B. (1997, August 13). On the Defensive: The Threat from Mainland China is taken
Seriously by Taiwan's Air Force. Flight International, 45-46.
Keller, John, ed. "Lockheed Martin wins $308.3 million contract modification to upgrade radars on
Taiwan F-16 jet fighters." Military & Aerospace Electronics. N.p., 22 Dec. 2014. Web. 16 Jan.
2015.
Kromhout, Gert, and Stephan De Burijn. "Republic of China Air Force: Playing Catch Up." Air Force
Monthly Apr. 2015: 50-55. Print.
Malenic, Marina, and James Hardy. "F-16V radar integration clears way for Taiwan upgrade." Jane's
IHS. N.p., 21 Aug. 2014. Web. 16 Jan. 2015.
Minnick, Wendell. "Russian Fighters for China Still On Hold." DefenseNews. N.p., 31 May 2014. Web.
16 Jan. 2015.
Willis, David, ed. Aerospace Encyclopedia of World Air Forces. N.p.: Aerospace Publishing, 1999.
Print.

info@defenceaviation.com

Work Cited
Aoki, Toshiro. "Republic of China Air Force AIDC F-CK-1A Ching Kuo." Wikimedia Commons. N.p., 2
June
2012. Web. 24 Jan. 2015.
Kromhout, Gert, and Stephan De Burijn. "Republic of China Air Force: Playing Catch Up." Air Force
Monthly Apr. 2015: 54. Print.
Wang, Chang-Song. "The two-seat F-CK-1D ('Brave Hawk'), with the single-seater F-CK-1C in the
background, at their public demo." Wikimedia Commons. N.p., 27 Mar. 2007. Web. 24 Jan. 2015.
http://www.hmhfp.info/dcm/IDF_Aniv.html
Also, I give a massive shoutout to Henry Existence and Solo Wing for let me use their pictures!

Additional Links
http://imgur.com/a/JVErj#0 Website from Zuilon Rau
http://www.taiwanairpower.org/ History and background of the RoCAF, RoCA, and RoCN by Wei-bin
Chang

info@defenceaviation.com