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MAP
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Content
Edito A joke too much (p.3) Governance Nation-States, Europe, Regions and...
Macro-Regions (p.5) FuturHebdo 26/03/2063 : Is humanity ready for a new Abu
Simbel ? (p.9) - Society The inevitable counter-revolution of the American people (p.11) Euro-BRICS Towards the conclusion of Schengen type agreements between the EuroBRICS (p.18) - Geopolitics 2015 : Will the new route to the Indies be via Nicaragua ? (p.21)
Political Anticipation Magazine
EDITO
Its a well-known technique in the comedy world. Making the public laugh makes it drop its guard
and plunge it even deeper in the storys drama. With last months Italian elections, something a
bit like this happened
On February 26th, the Italian election results were announced. Beppe Grillo, a former comedian, appears to be the
big winner. Berlusconi, with his coalition winning 30% of the votes, still hasnt disappeared. The newspapers have announced that the Eurozones third largest economy is in the hands of clowns and Eurosceptics. The European leaders,
disowned by their protg Mario Montis scathing defeat, are trembling. The markets plunged.
According to the mainstream media, its a total rout1. Italy is deadlocked. However this has to be qualified. Standing as a Eurosceptic, The Five
Star Movement, lead by Beppe Grillo, doesnt basically question the Euro and the European Union even less. Besides it should be noted that
the partys programme makes reference to European and other Member States directives on several occasions2. In his speeches Beppe Grillo
talks of organizing a referendum on the Euro but not pulling out. If the preceding public consultations organized by the EU didnt actually in fact
proceed as Brussels would have wished, it shouldnt necessarily be considered that asking the publics opinion on important matters is a sign
of rejection. This party, which doesnt wish to align itself on the traditional left-right divide, is trying to reinvent the way politics happen and once
again giving Italians a place in their countrys affairs3.
Throughout history, the Italians have opened up the way subsequently taken by the rest of the continent. Without going back to Antiquity and the Romans, the country was the first to move forward in
Fascisms half-light. More recently, with a policy centred on emotion
as well as the fusion of political and private lives, Berlusconism
preceded Sarkozyism.
ORGANISATION
1. Efforts to protect the Alps are older than political integration and lead, in 1952 directly after the war, to CIPRA, a NGO with about 100 member
organizations that works for the protection and sustainable development of the Alps and was the main force to create the Alpine Convention.
2. During the first phase of European Integration, Arge Alp was founded in 1972
through the initiative of the leaders of the Tyrol, South Tyrol and Bavaria. It was
the first association of state units at a level below nation-states within Europe
and its foundation marked the conclusion of the friction in the South Tyrol conflict.
3. The first European renaissance of 1985-1992 at the time of the iron curtains dissolution
also saw the establishment of the Tyrol-South Tyrol-Trentino Europaregion, in1989, a transnational region created from those parts of the Tyrol that had been annexed after the First
World War. The Europaregion is the nucleus of alpine integration just as France/Germany
is the nucleus of European integration.
4. In the same period, during which the European Union was created through the Treaty of
Maastricht, the major alpine states signed the Alpine Convention, in 1991, an international
treaty promoting the comprehensive protection and sustainable development in the Alpine
area.
Source : Alpine Convention
5 MAP March 2013 - A four-monthly publication by LEAP
5. The EU has given the Alps the Alpine Space Programme. It is a European transnational cooperation programme in the framework of the EU
cohesion policy (a policy aimed at reducing the disparities between the European regions)2, and its partner states are those of the Alpine Convention. Whereas the Alpine Convention covers only the core alpine area, the Alpine Space Programme also includes a number of significant
metropolitan regions.
6. Now the expanded EU is trying to consolidate the combined alpine regions into Euroland to establish a Macro-Regional Strategy for the Alps
(following its strategies for the Baltic Sea and the Danube). Work to develop this macro-regional strategy for the Alps has been ongoing since
2009 through the Arge Alp, the Alpine Convention and the Alpine Space Programme and aims at incorporating 40 regions of seven states with
a population of 50 million.
A macro-regional strategy for the Alps is seen as a framework for multi-level governance, which is actually already happening in the current
process3.
Trends
The need to balance the ecology in turbulent times
The continuous need to balance the fragile eco-systems of the Alps is one of the strongest motives for regional cooperation. The current global
systemic crisis is actually a period of major turbulence (political, economical and climatic) and thus intensifies the need for balance. In the world
which emerges from the crisis its not enough to rely on existing courses of action and we see a necessity for completely new methods and
solutions originating from heightened awareness.
The Alps is a group of prosperous European regions with a relatively homogenous economic structure of networks of medium-size industries
and universities. Many factors have contributed to its prosperity: political stability and the resulting influx of capital, the strength that results from
overcoming natural challenges, the location at the centre of Europe and distinct historical and political conditions.
Amongst citizens we see a growing distrust of all officialdom but, on the other hand, a historically strong
identification with their own regions.5
Promotion of innovation and competitiveness in
this prosperous area
FUTURHEBDO
The ancient site of Damas, the cities of New Orleans and Venice, the Easter Island statues, the town of Salzburg and that of Hoi An in Vietnam the list of the sites belonging
to humanitys patrimony and threatened by climate change doesnt stop getting longer. A
question increasingly arises here: are nations ready to commit the means necessary to
safeguard this group which constitute the cultural wealth of our history by its diversity ?
What was achieved in 1958 to save the site of Abu Simbel on the Nile in Egypt, because of
the unavoidable flooding as a result of the Aswan High Dams construction was amazing
feat: 60 thousand of tons of stone removed one by one, identified, numbered from one to
1600, and then re-assembled so that future generations could continue to enjoy this jewel
of Paranoiac architecture.
Today, we arent talking about one site but dozens. More often, we talk of thousands of tonnes or millions of cubic metres were no longer
expecting the help of a few nations but all the nations of the planet which must create a huge plan to conserve these legacies of the past.
In the face of such an undertakings size, realism and idealism oppose each other once again. And the same groups which stated their opposition to projects such as the space elevator openly state their objection to this conservation project for a heritage which they themselves dont recognize. These masterpieces in danger are the
manifestation of a world from which they appear to be totally separated: As the loss of the Bamiyan Buddhas contributed to crystallize the extent of the Talibans extremism in Afghanistan with
the public at large at the beginning of the 21st century, these sites, buried and lost forever, will be
other milestones along the long road of realization which humanity must travel to save itself from
its own excesses ! Clearly, the projects costs are taken into account in the opponents approach
to this major project, already called the NAS Project (New Abu Simbel Project).
For all that, the NAS doesnt lack support. Whether from industrial or transnational patronage,
cultural foundations, or quite simply via state aid of all sizes, this support has been organized beginning with the constitution of a scientific committee of experts. The latter, via its spokesperson,
emphasizes that the current climate isnt the same as at the time of the first Abu Simbel. What,
9 MAP March 2013 - A four-monthly publication by LEAP
at the time, constituted a Paranoiac work for the teams in the true sense of the word, could be carried out much more effectively thanks to the
use of new technologies: foremost among which are robotics and artificial intelligence. Its not out of the question to entrust a sites conservation project (analysis, selection of a new location, transfer, adaptation of the new site layout and reconstruction) to an Artificial Intelligence
which would be structured around all the elements which constitute the site to be transferred (physical just as much as cultural or aesthetic
constituents).
Its artificial instinct of survival will supervise a myriad of robots, all controlled by this Artificial Intelligence. We can be sure that the new site which
is chosen, just like the means to get it up and running and, in addition slotting it into the framework of the laws of robotics, will respect the wealth
of these unique and essential sites in mankinds memory much better than humans !
The NAS scientific committee will shortly submit a programme of work to be undertaken to the UN General Assembly. The two camps are honing their weapons for this verbal battle with global implications.
World crisis
The Path to the World Afterwards
Europe and the World in the decade from 2010 to 2020
Order On-Line
by Franck Biancheri
In this uncompromising book, Franck Biancheri (born in 1961, Director of Studies at the Laboratoire
Europen dAnticipation Politique) attempts to address the lack of anticipation of European leaders and
elites when it comes to the crisis and presents a concrete vision of the future in France, Europe and the
world by 2020.
Because this crisis we are experiencing is not only the end of the world before, it is also an unprecedented opportunity to rebuild a
world after, provided not to be mistaken about the dangers, challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.
SOCIETY
The American Republic has seen extraordinary and continuous changes since September
2001. We must call these changes a revolution, or a permanent coup detat, which has gradually rolled back the US Republics institutions to the level of simple charades. This revolution
is a Great Decline, i.e. a movement which will only be reversed with the victory of a counterrevolution led by the American people, the first signs of existence of which are seeing the light
of day. At the end of this long fight, none of the current federal institutions will survive without
being, at best, deeply changed.1,2
The global systemic crisis is, above all, reflected as a crisis of the status quo, which characterizes an era when changes, although present and
deep-seated, are very few and far from perceptible on the surface or in the
mainstream media. The crisis therefore acts as an unmasking, together
with acceleration in the dynamics of change, while preserving the major
trends. This is why its essential to examine the American Republics progression from a dynamic angle, instead of a frozen image usually limited
to a snapshot of the situation.
1. This text is an extract. The whole document, available on Conscience-Sociale.org has other sections and, in particular, on the coming order of events.
2. We will use the parrsia technique allied to the method of political anticipation. This text is intended to be a decision-making tool for
each individual involved, as the consequence of a strong empathy for
the American people.
We identify four principal forces, often opposing, of time-varying intensity and the result of which at each instant explains the situation in the
past, present and future:
l
l the social dynamic of exchanges between individuals, produced by the dominant ideology (which includes, amongst others, all the elements
of classic economic analysis) ;
l the external dynamic, that put to work by other countries through relations (trade, financial, monetary, military, political etc.) between governments and organizations; foreign policy aiming at influencing these relations to obtain effects favourable to the country ;
l the internal political dynamic, produced by the relationship between citizens, organizations and the federal government, and of which justice
is an essential part.
11 MAP March 2013 - A four-monthly publication by LEAP
6. After the looting and destruction of Baghdads archeological treasures, civilizations cultural patrimony, Rumsfield
said: Freedoms untidy Free people are free to make
mistakes and commit crimes. Source : ItUS policy thats
untidy, 17.04.13, Los Angeles Times
7. From the US to the UK, industrial decline creates anxious
class, 04.02.13, GlobalPost
8. Gold, the renminbi and the multiple-currency reserve
system, 01.2013, OMFIF ; Conscience Sociale
On September 12th, 2002, in front of the United Nations, G.W. Bush announced the United States presidencys intention to make a pre-emptive attack on Iraq, against current international law.9 No delegate opposed it and the invasion began on March 20th 2003. On this day the
multilateral framework of international law was, in practice, reduced to the law of the jungle because this international law was not practised
and guaranteed. This day is noteworthy for the imprint of American imperialism on the whole of international relations. This ideology is a basic
trend which has continuously determined US foreign policy since the genocide of the Indian wars, and that in the Philippines. This long expansionism which has been the source of its growth has henceforth gone into reverse. The US has withdrawn from Iraq, from Afghanistan soon
and there are also the 88,000 soldiers based in Europe10 who will be repatriated to the USA or sent to Asia. But recycling a military-industrial
complex back into civilian life is very difficult, as the US found out in 1946-47.
9. The mantra that means this time its serious, 14.09.02, The Independent
(reprinted by Daily Times)
10. Source : 30.09.12, Military personnel statistics, DoD
11. This evolution has been remarkably explained in a multidisciplinary approach by the Blowback trilogy by Pr. Chalmers Johnson, and particularly
in his last volume : Nemesis The last days of the American Republic, Metropolitan Books, 2006; See also The military Keynesianism of the U.S. and
the Road to Tyranny, Conscience Sociale.
12. On presidential records, 04.2002, Federation of American Scientists ;
Uncle Sams Iron Curtain of Secrecy, 08.2005, James Bovard ; 13.03.06,
The Guardian ; 2 U.S. Supreme Court Justices And Numerous Other Top
Government Officials Warn of Dictatorship, 18.09.12, Washingtons blog
I arrest you !
The death of Aaron Swartz on January 11th13 reminds us of Mohamed
Bouazizis, who also committed suicide at the age of 26 as the ultimate
mark of protest against his governments policies. His gesture will be
a symbol for a whole generation of young people who will recognize
themselves in him. Similarly, Aaron Swartzs death is also a political
gesture; that of a man persecuted by a legal system which betrays its
citizens instead of protecting them14. Two years of Kafkaesque proceedings15in which the prosecutor overstepped the spirit and the letter
of the law without any control16with the only objective in this threat of
forcing Aaron Swartz to plead guilty17 reminds us of nothing other than
The Trial18, in which a 30 year old man is suddenly dragged into an arbitrary, inhuman, absurd and deadly legal system.
Here its about a media-targeted, but above all, libertarian act, which takes place exclusively
on the Internet and outside the ambit of current legislation, unlike the Occupy movement. The
message sent20on this occasion by OpLastResort very clearly expresses several motives
which are not limited to the denunciation of practices or projects of freedom-threatening legislation:
l That its about a long-term, well-prepared operation in answer to the hacker activists arrests in 2012; That its triggering is the consequence of Aaron Swartzs death, directly caused
by the States persecution of which he was the object
l That justices common sense is above the law as expressed by the State,
when this is perceived as a betrayal of citizens interests or freedoms; Here one
must highlight the governments judicial persecution of other alarm bell ringers21;
l That there is no desire to negotiate; its an ultimatum delivered to the government to launch an in-depth reform of the many freedom-threatening laws;
That there can be only one way out: by the government enacting the reforms
demanded. The combat will not stop before that;
l That the message is addressed to all the worlds citizens, and not only Americans even if its only aimed at the latter; its this protest movements indispensable characteristic, which recruits active members beyond frontiers, even for causes which one could naively think only concern Americans.
Order On-Line
On many occasions during the last 25 years, the sphere of influence focused around the personage of Franck Biancheri has, de
facto, provided fertile ground for the correct anticipation of major historic events: the fall of the Iron Curtain, the crisis of the European
Commission, the collapse of the Dollar and the global systemic crisis are some of the most striking predictions in the story (which
is still unfolding) of this sphere of influence whose very diverse features (European context, network organisation, political objectives,
independent state of mind) allows one to suppose that they play some role, without doubt, in this ability.
Indeed, if ones correct anticipation is the result of chance, the second can be good luck, but by a third, it becomes possible to hope that some rules
and a rational approach are at play.
The work done within this sphere of influence, among which the most illustrative is that conducted by LEAP (Laboratoire Europen dAnticipation Politique) through its monthly publication, the GEAB (GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin), has even forced the respect of academics, giving rise to a need
for a contemporary approach, which is the purpose of this manual: What is political anticipation (and what it isnt)? What is its use? What are the tools,
principles and rules which shape it? What are its limits?
These are the questions which this small manual will try and answer.
Euro-BRICS
The Schengen agreement guarantees the right of free movement for people within the Schengen Area by the absence of internal border checks, counterbalanced by reinforced external
border checks according to a common standard agreed upon by all countries signatory to the
agreement.
This standard includes four sections :
l
l
l
l
reinforcement of external border checks (obligation to verify anyone crossing the border-prohibition against organizing only spot-checks)
common visa policy
common asylum policy
reinforced police, legal and customs cooperation.
The European Unions Member States are currently parties to the Schengen agreement; except for the United Kingdom and Ireland, plus Norway, Iceland and Switzerland.
Thus one can see that the participation in the Schengen agreement by no means requires European Union membership.
The agreement was not made to grant more freedom to the signatory states nationals, but as a reaction to enormous tourist flows between
the first five signatories (Germany, France, Luxembourg, Belgium, and the Netherlands) which made effective border controls between these
countries impossible. The governments made the choice to substitute reinforcement of external border checks accompanied by police, customs
and legal cooperation, reinforced with occasional random checks and thus ineffective on internal borders. Thus one could say that the rationale
behind Schengen is the concentration of resources on external checks.
The Schengen Area is, then, the consequence of the increase in travellers numbers to the extent of making traditional border controls unworkable. Thus Switzerland was almost forced to participate, because it could no longer, as a transit country hemmed in by the European Union,
claim to control its borders effectively.
18 MAP March 2013 - A four-monthly publication by LEAP
The process should follow a rationale of granting privilege and evaluation at several stages :
Initially, people in the Kaliningrad enclave would be granted multiple and unlimited Schengen visas. After a few years, the Schengen states
would evaluate the recipients compliance with the rules. If there is little abuse, the next step follows:
The Schengen states would lift the visa requirement for people in the enclave.
Several years after further evaluation, if there is still little abuse the next steps follow, always at a cadence of grant and
evaluation:
l
l
l
security and controls, but simply adapts control methods to respond to the new situation of traveller flows so large that traditional controls have
become unworkable. There are even some who say that the measures envisaged by the Schengen Agreement increase the level of controls to
which travellers and also all people in the Schengen Area are subjected.
That, in addition, they create a feeling of belonging to the same area, sharing a common destiny, that the signatory countries are friendly states
isnt the sought-after goal, but a very good side-result.
Editions Anticipolis
Order On-Line
GEOPOLITICS
With the discovery of America the idea of a dry canal1 to shorten and facilitate the route
to the Indies from Europe appeared. It was only at the end of the 19th century that such a
project became feasible. Two options were then considered in depth: to build a waterway
across either Panama or Nicaragua2, where in 1888, the millionaire J.P. Morgan undertook
the project3, quickly brought to a halt by a lack of finance following a stock exchange panic.
Finally, US president Theodore Roosevelt decided continue the unfinished French project
in Panama, officially for cost and seismic risk reasons, but especially for geostrategic interests. Panamanian territory was snatched from Colombia to place it under American control,
whilst Nicaragua, rebelling against the attacks of the freebooter Yankee William Walker a
few decades earlier, was punished in the long-term.
Thus, since 1914 the Panama Canal has been a very profitable American Gibraltar and bound to happen for growing international trade.
During this time, the United States constantly mistreated Nicaragua4 by military and political manoeuvring which caused violent grassroots reactions. The civil war from 1972 to 1990 had serious consequences, human with
more than 70,000 victims, but also economic, with today Nicaragua being the con1. Source : 10.1996, Peter Constantini
tinents second poorest country. As an irony of history, Daniel Ortega, a historical
figure at the head of the anti-US Sandinista movement during these bloody years,
2. Nicaragua Canal project steps up to rival Panama,
15.06.12, The Voice of Russia
is president of the country today. If he has adapted to new times by giving up the
revolutionary struggle, his anti-US imperialism fervour remains intact. This year,
3. Le rve du grand canal du Nicaragua refait surface,
he has met the highest ranking authorities of Venezuela, Cuba, China, Russia and
07.06.12, Le Monde
Iran, making Nicaragua an unconditional ally in this other axis.
Nicaragua is a politically unstable country, institutionally fragile, where the rule of law is interpreted according to the leaders goodwill. But with
such advantages, the project is guaranteed international long term support.
Further, the green light wont be given without its investors guaranteed management control. Moreover, to get to its 51% capital share, Nicaragua will still depend on these investors, 30 billion dollars representing four times the countrys annual GDP. But this amount over 10 years, even
if its inevitably re-evaluated, isnt ridiculous: in 2012 alone, China invested 70 billion10 dollars overseas. The emerging countries are seeking to
quickly invest their surpluses in projects of the future, and here we find three of the BRICs.
l
The first presentation in 2004 proposed six routes11. In July 2012, two Dutch companies were appointed to carry out a pre-feasibility study relating to the technical aspects12, the results of which will be known in about six months. Last September a memorandum of understanding was
22 MAP March 2013 - A four-monthly publication by LEAP
signed committing a newly formed Chinese company13 and headed by the president of
the Xinwei Telecom Enterprise Group conducts a feasibility study14, but is also responsible for developing, financing and executing the project. (One notes the lack of detail on
other investors involvement.) It is also envisaged that the project will have a traditional waterway and a complementary dry canal.
l
40% of ships currently sailing or ordered already exceed the Panama Canals future size15,
currently undergoing widening until 2014. Only the Nicaragua canal will accommodate ships
of 248,000 tonnes or more, twice as large as those which can transit the Panama Canal.
The Great Canal works commission already forecasts that 4.5% of the worlds transport of
goods by sea will pass via Nicaragua whilst, according to it, the Panama Canal currently
attracts 3%. It would have also the significant advantage shortening the sea route between
New York and Los Angeles by 800 kilometres - even if it would be 280 km long instead of
the Panama Canals 80 km.
In addition, world sea traffic is continuously rising in spite of the crisis.
13. Nicaragua taps China for canal project, 11.09.12, Nicaragua
Dispatch
As for a hypothetical peak everything which would mark the collapse of international trade, it wont happen tomorrow16.
l
As well as the canal the project envisages Venezuela constructing a refinery in 2013, close to the town of Len in the North-West of the country,
which will follow the construction of an interoceanic pipeline17.
Since 2008, Nicaragua has actively been exploring offshore. A spillage in April 2012 even led one to think that it already exports oil discreetly18.
At the end of November 2012, the International Court of Justice recognized Nicaragua as the owner of a maritime zone of 70,000 km219 around
the tourist island of San Andrs located off its coasts but belonging to Colombia. Furious, the latter reacted by refusing to recognize this courts
authority, causing international unease. These waters are clearly highly valued.
co-finance the refinery of Len28. The Chinese business Xinwei will expect its license as a mobile network operator29, without little consideration
for the already anxious existing operators30.
This organization of affairs breaks with the well-worn business practices: no sensational statements, barely hidden favours when politics run
the economy, corruption not only complicit but even a driver: Pastora, the Commander, the Nicaraguan heading the project, has received land
confiscated from its owners31, to enrich himself later when compulsorily acquired for the canal. Even better, China will thus invest in a country
which doesnt even recognize it diplomatically32. The BRIC play differently, necessitating taking a second look their strategy.
criteria thus seem to take precedence over any geostrategic viewpoint. In fact, the Americans and Panamanians dont believe in Nicaraguas
capacity to carry out such a project in a context of a global crisis.
Only undeniable aggravation for the United States is Irans presence in this game of alliances. Despite its strong diplomatic closeness with
Managua since 2007, Teheran doesnt follow up on its promises for joint projects40. Consequently, a radical Irans role really seems really to
test the extent of American tolerance, like it does in the Middle East, successfully up to now. This barometer makes it possible to anticipate the
scope of the project in its entirety.
40. US foes unite: Nicaraguas Daniel
Ortega cozies up to Irans Ahmadinejad,
09.01.12, The Christian Science Monitor
Today, trade between the Atlantic and Pacific must pass by Panama, under the guns of the American fleet. The new axis BRIC around China
will want, by developing this alternative route, to deploy military protection for its own economic and political interests there. The recent launching of the first Chinese aircraft carrier41 raises the veil on a strategy of force projection.
Weakened militarily after repeated failures, the United States will not, in spite of their 22 bases in Latin America42, move to a head-on conflict
with the BRICs, a new superpower but also an enormous creditor capable of affecting the dollar. Particularly as the domestic tensions in view,
as a consequence of the crisis, will require a great deal of attention and energy from them.
The American sphere of influence has shaken itself free, the Monroe Doctrine is dead.
The Nicaragua channel is an element of the BRICs global strategy for taking power. Technically already launched, its transformation into a geostrategic bastion will take place in due course, without
coming up against Yankee pride, whilst waiting for the old hegemony itself to crumble and collapse.
MAP
MARCH 2013
MAP is published by the European Laboratory of Political Anticipation (LEAP) with the collaboration of Europe2020
Publishing Editor : Marie-Hlne Caillol
Editor : Michal Timmermans
Contributors : Harald Greib, Christel Hahn, Gilles Maury, Olivier Parent, Bruno Paul
Contact : map@leap2020.eu
Texts are licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter
to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. Illustrations belong to the autors mentionned in the references.