Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
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(eds)
2009 Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 978-0-415-48507-4
ABSTRACT: The recent flash flood that occurred in the South of France showed that the flooding of roads is
a major problem for two reasons: i) it is a significant source of danger for car passengers ii) emergency services
need to have a clear overview of the road conditions to be efficient. Therefore it appears important to determine
the points of a road network liable to be submerged during flash floods.
The objective of this study is to progress in the forecasting of road flooding. The Gard region has been taken
as the application case study to develop and to test the proposed method. The Gard region is frequently affected
by severe flash floods and an inventory of the road points flooded during a forty year period, the PICH, has
recently been realized in part of the region which can serve as a support for the calibration and the validation
of the method.
The proposed approach consists in three steps. First, a vulnerability rating method, taking into account the
characteristics of the road and of its upstream watershed has been calibrated and validated using the PICH
information. In a second step a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model has been developed to be able to evaluate
flood discharges produced by the upstream watershed of all the points of the road network exposed to flooding.
Finally, a method has been proposed to combine the vulnerability level of a point of the road network and the
computed discharges to be able to compute a flooding risk level at each moment of a flood event and at every
location of the road network exposed to flooding. The approach has shown promising results on five recent
events for which maps of observed road submersions were available.
1
1.1
INTRODUCTION
Objectives and methods
Study area
1209
2.1
1210
0.4
0.35
Non PICH
PICH
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0-0,1
0,1-0,3
0,3-0,5
0,5-0,7
0,7-1
1-2
>2
Flow Ratio
Qc = K Rh 2 I 2 S
(1)
(2)
Geographical indicators
i 0.5
n + 0.5 if PICH points values appears
among the highest values
(4)
Ind = 1
Combination
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%PICH/
%Non PICH class
High AND
Med. AND
Low OR
Null
0%
17%
58%
25%
0.3
0.57
0.57
20%
30%
50%
0%
100%
60%
37%
0%
3.1
1212
Rainfall
CN
Nash-calib
Nash-valid
19/09/00
27/09/00
17/10/01
08/09/02
30/09/03
15/11/03
21/11/03
29/11/03
25/10/04
100 mm
164 mm
193 mm
335 mm
98 mm
120 mm
165 mm
230 mm
161 mm
4050
4050
3040
4050
4050
5060
5060
7080
4050
0.01/1.7
0,30/0,99
0,15/0,08
0,47/0,43
0,10/0,12
0,08/0,27
0,35/0,20
0,67/0,51
0,35/0,11
0.38/1.2
0,34/0,31
0,04/0,41
0,82/0,65
0,47/0,66
0,2/0,07
1,3/2,11
0,27/0,41
0,31/0,34
Figure 5.
model.
In the model, a catchment is represented by a network of river reaches having a rectangular cross-section connected to two rectangular slopes as shown in
Figure 5. The division of the Gard Region into subcatchments and river reaches was dependent on the
location of the vulnerable road sections. The largest
sub-catchment area was 10 km2.
3.2
Calibration
Antecedent
rainfall
0100 mm
100200 mm
200300 mm
300400 mm
>400 mm
4050
4050
5060
6070
7080
4050
5060
5060
6070
7080
5060
5060
6070
7080
8090
5060
5060
6070
7080
8090
Validation
The results obtained on the four validation catchments appear very similar to the calibration results
(Table 2). The severe storm of 8th September 2002
has been modelled well with the calibrated parameters used on other catchments. This is also the case, to
a lesser extent, for the events of 27 September 2000,
30 September 2003 and 25 October 2004 events. For
other events, especially for the 29 November 2003
event, the model tends to over-estimate the flood peak
discharge. In some cases (i.e. the 19 September 2002
and 30 September 2003 flood) the calibration average results are even better than the validation results.
These validation results reflect a certain robustness of
the selected rainfallrunoff model and indicate that
it can be applied, with its limits, on ungauged catchments over the Gard Region.
3.4
Conclusion
One single parameter does not match all the calibration events. However, the variations are logical. The
CN values increase during the autumn, indicating a
1213
Low
35%
(red)
22%
(ora)
13%
(yel)
0%
(red)
4%
(ora)
1% 66%
(ora)
0%
41%
65%
(ora)
33%
(yel)
20%
1214
21/11/03
29/11/03
17/12/03
03/11/04
06/09/05
6
7
0
0
31
150 100%
180 100%
60
100
300
58%
False Chronology
alarm
93%
4% 15%
~
19% 27% 75% 80%
CONCLUSION
1215
1216