Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 15

6,000

Graphique 12.1. Les milliardaires d'aprs le classement Forbes, 1987-2013

2,400

5,000

2,000

4,000

Patrimoine total des milliardaires (en milliards de $) (chelle


de gauche)

1,600

3,000

Nombre de milliardaires en $ dans le monde (chelle de


droite)

1,200
,

2,000

800

1,000

400

Lecture. Entre 1987 et 2013, le nombre de milliardaires en $ dans le monde est pass d'aprs Forbes de 140 1400, et leur patrimoine total de 300 milliards de dollars 5 400 milliards. Sources et sries: voir piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c.

Graphique 12.2. Les milliardaires en proportion de la population et du patrimoine de la plante, 1987-2013


1.6%
1.4%
1.2%

40.0
Patrimoine total des milliardaires (en % du patrimoine priv
mondial) (chelle de gauche)

35.0
30.0

Nombre de milliardaires en $ dans le monde (pour 100


millions d'habitants adultes) (chelle de droite)

1.0%

25.0

0.8%

20.0
,

0.6%

15.0

0.4%

10.0

0.2%

5.0

0.0%

0.0

Lecture. Entre 1987 et 2013, le nombre de milliardaires pour 100 millions d'adultes est pass de 5 30, et leur part dans le patrimoine priv mondial de 0,4% 1,5%. Sources et sries: voir piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c.

Part dans lepatrimoineprivmondial

Graphique 12.3. La part des fractiles de trs hauts patrimoines dans le patrimoine priv mondial, 1987-2013

1.0%
0.9%

Part du vingt millionime suprieur

0.8%

Part du cent millionnime suprieur

0.7%
0.6%

0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%

Lecture. Entre 1987 et 2013, la part du vingt millionime suprieur est passe de 0,3% 0,9% du patrimoine total, et la part du cent millionime de 0,1% 0,4%. Sources et sries: voir piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c.

Valeur du capital priv, en % du revenu mondial

Prvisions
(scnario
central)
Sries
800%

observes
Graphique 12.4. Le rapport capital/revenu dans le monde,
1870-2100

700%
600%
500%
400%
300%
200%
100%
1870

1890

1910

1930

1950

1970

1990

2010

2030

2050

2070

2090

Lecture: d'aprs les simulations du scnario central, le rapport capital/revenu au niveau mondial pourrait s'approcher de 700% d'ici la fin du 21e sicle. Sources et sries: voir piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c.

Valeur du capital priv, en % revenu mondial

800%

Graphique 12.5. La rpartition du capital mondial 1870-2100

700%
600%
500%
400%

Asie
Afrique

300%
200%
100%

Amriqu
e
Europe

0%
Lecture: d'aprs le scnario central, les pays asiatiques devraient dtenir environ la moiti du capital mondial au 21e sicle. Sources et sries: voir piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c.

Actifs trangers nets (% production mondiale)

Actifs financiers non enregistrs dtenus


dans les paradis fiscaux (estimation
minimale)

12.0%
10.0%

Graphique 12.6. La position patrimoniale des pays riches


vis--vis du reste du monde

Japon

8.0%
6.0%
4.0%

Europe

2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%

Pays riches
(Japon + Europe + Etats-Unis)

EtatsUnis

Lecture: les actifs financiers non enregistrs dtenus dans les paradis fiscaux sont plus levs que la dette trangre nette officielle des pays riches. Sources et sries: voir piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c.

Tableau 12.1. Le taux de croissance des plus hauts patrimoines mondiaux,


1987-2013

Taux de croissance
moyen annuel

rel
(aprs

Priode 1987-2013

dduction de l'inflation)

Les un cent millionimes les plus riches


(environ 30 personnes adultes sur 3 milliards dans les
annes 1980, 45 personnes sur 4,5 milliards dans les
annes 2010)

6.8%

Les un vingt millionimes les plus riches


(environ 150 personnes adultes sur 3 milliards dans les
annes 1980, 225 personnes sur 4,5 milliards dans les
annes 2010)

6.4%

Patrimoine moyen mondial par habitant


adulte

2.1%

Revenu moyen mondial par habitant adulte

1.4%

Population adulte mondiale

1.9%

PIB mondial

3.3%

Lecture: de 1987 2013, les plus hauts patrimoines mondiaux ont progress de 6%-7% par
an, contre 2,1% par an pour le patrimoine moyen mondial et 1,4% par an pour le revenu
moyen mondial. Tous ces taux de croissance sont nets de l'inflation (soit 2,3% par an de 1987
2013). Sources: voir piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c.

Tableau 12.2. Le rendement des dotations en capital des universits


amricaines, 1980-2010

Taux de rendement rel


moyen
annuel
(aprs dduction des

Priode 1980-2010

frais de gestion et de l'inflation)

Toutes universits confondues (850)

8.2%

dont: Harvard-Yale-Princeton

10.2%

dont: dotations suprieures 1 milliard $


(60)

8.8%

dont: dotations comprises entre 500


millions et 1 milliard $ (66)

7.8%

dont: dotations comprises entre 100 et 500


millions de $ (226)

7.1%

dont: dotations infrieures 100 millions


de $ (498)

6.2%

Lecture: de 1980 2010, les universits amricaines ont obtenu un rendement rel moyen de
8,2% sur leur dotation en capital, d'autant plus lev que leur dotation initiale tait importante.
Les rendements indiqus sont nets de tous les frais de gestion, et nets de l'inflation (2,4% par
an de 1980 2010). Sources: voir piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c.

Tableau S12.1. Le taux de croissance des plus hauts patrimoines mondiaux, 1987-2013

Taux de croissance
moyen annuel

rel

Priode 1987-2013

Priode 1990-2010

6.8%

4.1%

6.4%

3.8%

Patrimoine moyen mondial par habitant


adulte

2.1%

2.0%

Revenu moyen mondial par habitant adulte

1.4%

1.5%

Population adulte mondiale

1.9%

1.9%

PIB mondial

3.3%

3.4%

(aprs

dduction de l'inflation)

Les un cent millionimes les plus riches


(environ 30 personnes adultes sur 3 milliards dans les
annes 1980, 45 personnes sur 4,5 milliards dans les
annes 2010)

Les un vingt millionimes les plus riches


(environ 150 personnes adultes sur 3 milliards dans les
annes 1980, 225 personnes sur 4,5 milliards dans les
annes 2010)

Lecture: de 1987 2013, les plus hauts patrimoines mondiaux ont progress de 6%-7% par an, contre 2,1% par an pour le
patrimoine moyen mondial et 1,4% par an pour le revenu moyen mondial. Tous ces taux de croissance sont nets de
l'inflation (soit 2,3% par an de 1987 2013). Sources: voir piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c.

Tableau S12.2. Le rendement des dotations en capital des universits amricaines, 1980-2010

Taux de rendement rel


moyen
annuel
(aprs dduction des

Priode 1980-2010

Priode 1990-2010

8.2%

7.2%

dont: Harvard-Yale-Princeton

10.2%

10.0%

dont: dotations suprieures 1 milliard $


(60)

8.8%

7.8%

dont: dotations comprises entre 500


millions et 1 milliard $ (66)

7.8%

6.3%

dont: dotations comprises entre 100 et 500


millions de $ (226)

7.1%

5.9%

dont: dotations infrieures 100 millions


de $ (498)

6.2%

5.1%

frais de gestion et de l'inflation)

Toutes universits confondues (850)

Lecture: de 1980 2010, les universits amricaines ont obtenu un rendement rel moyen de 7,7% sur leur dotation en
capital, d'autant plus lev que leur dotation initiale tait de 1980 2010, les universits amricaines ont obtenu un
rendement rel moyen de 8,2% sur leur dotation en capital, d'autant plus lev que leur dotation initiale tait importante. Les
rendements indiqus sont nets de tous les frais de gestion, et nets de l'inflation (2,4% par an de 1980 2010). Sources: voir
piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c.

Tableau S12.3. La croissance des plus hauts patrimoines mondiaux d'aprs les classements Forbes, 1987-2013
(sries utilises pour les graphiques 12.1-12.3)

Nombre total de
milliardaires en
dollars

Patrimoine total en
milliards de dollars

1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

140
191
220
265
260
275
192
342
366
422
323
308
336
360
538
497
476
587
691
793
946
1,125
793
1,011
1,206
1,226
1,426

295
338
460
570
592
601
399
765
885
1,049
1,205
1,289
1,351
1,473
1,729
1,544
1,403
1,917
2,236
2,646
3,452
4,381
2,415
3,568
4,500
4,600
5,400

2013/1987

10.2
9.3%

2010/1990

3.8
6.9%

Detailed computations using Forbes rankings 1987-2013 (source: Forbes website and Daniel Waldestrom 1988-2010 database)

Part du un vingt
Patrimoine total en %
Nombre de
millionime dans le
du patrimoine priv milliardaires pour 100
patrimoine priv
mondial
millions d'habitants
mondial
0.4%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.4%
0.7%
0.7%
0.8%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
1.0%
0.8%
0.7%
0.9%
0.9%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
0.9%
1.2%
1.4%
1.4%
1.5%

4.9
6.5
7.4
8.7
8.3
8.6
5.9
10.3
10.8
12.2
9.2
8.6
9.2
9.7
14.3
12.9
12.2
14.7
17.0
19.2
22.5
26.2
18.2
22.8
26.7
26.7
30.5

Part du un cent
millionime dans le
patrimoine priv
mondial

meanage

minwealth

maxwealth

meanwealth

Top 100
minwealth

Top 100
meanwealth

Ratio

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

20
19
15
16
15
13
9
9
13
19
38
51
90
60
59
53
41
47
47
50
56
62
40
54
74
69
73

2.1
1.8
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.4
2.5
3.7
4.2
4.0
4.1
3.2
3.1
2.9
3.3
3.2
3.3
3.6
3.9
3.0
3.5
3.7
3.8
3.8

1.3
1.4
1.6
1.9
2.0
2.0
1.6
2.4
2.6
3.0
3.1
3.5
4.1
4.3
4.0
3.8
3.4
4.5
5.0
6.0
7.3
8.9
5.0
7.2
8.8
9.0
10.6

2.7
2.8
3.2
3.5
3.7
3.6
2.9
4.1
4.6
5.1
7.5
8.2
8.4
8.9
9.2
8.5
7.7
9.7
10.4
11.5
14.3
17.2
10.5
14.4
18.5
19.8
24.4

2.1
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.7
2.4
2.3
2.1
2.1
2.3
2.2
2.3
2.1
2.1
1.9
2.0
1.9
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3

Population
mondiale
(UN official
population
series)
5,039
5,129
5,218
5,306
5,393
5,478
5,562
5,644
5,726
5,807
5,887
5,966
6,045
6,123
6,200
6,277
6,353
6,430
6,507
6,584
6,662
6,740
6,818
6,896
6,974
7,052
7,130

%Pop Adulte
(UN official
series)

Top 1/20M

Min top
1/20M

Mean top
1/20M

Ratio

Top 1/100M

Min top
1/100M

Mean top
1/20M

Ratio

143
146
149
152
156
159
163
166
169
172
176
179
182
185
189
192
196
199
203
207
211
214
218
222
226
230
234

0.8
1.0
1.2
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.7
2.0
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.3
2.5
2.2
2.1
2.6
2.9
3.3
4.1
4.7
3.0
4.0
4.6
4.7
5.2

1.6
2.1
2.6
2.9
3.0
2.9
2.3
3.3
3.6
4.0
5.3
5.7
6.0
6.4
6.4
5.8
5.2
6.5
7.0
7.8
9.5
11.5
6.8
9.3
11.5
12.2
14.0

2.1
2.1
2.1
1.9
2.0
1.9
2.3
1.9
1.8
1.9
2.4
2.5
2.7
2.8
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.5
2.6
2.7

29
29
30
30
31
32
33
33
34
34
35
36
36
37
38
38
39
40
41
41
42
43
44
44
45
46
47

2.0
2.6
3.2
3.6
4.0
3.7
3.1
4.5
4.7
5.0
7.0
6.6
7.1
7.4
8.3
6.7
6.9
8.4
9.0
10.7
13.0
16.0
9.0
12.2
13.6
13.8
15.4

3.4
4.3
5.5
6.1
6.0
5.5
4.5
6.1
6.7
7.8
13.0
14.3
14.3
15.0
15.9
14.7
12.7
15.4
16.3
17.1
20.8
25.4
15.5
20.9
25.8
27.6
32.3

1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.6
1.9
2.2
2.0
2.0
1.9
2.2
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.9
2.0
2.1

8.8
8.7%
6.4%
3.2
6.0%
3.8%

1.6
1.9%

7.8
8.2%

1.5
1.9%

3.4
6.3%

9.6
9.1%
6.8%
3.4
6.4%
4.1%

0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.5%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
0.5%
0.7%
0.8%
0.8%
0.9%

0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%

18.3
11.8%

3.0
4.3%

3.3
4.7%

1.8
2.3%

8.2
8.4%

8.9
8.8%

1.1
0.4%

1.4
1.3%

1.6
1.9%

1.6
1.9%

6.9
7.7%

6.3
9.6%

1.4
1.7%

1.5
2.0%

1.6
2.5%

3.8
6.9%

4.1
7.3%

1.1
0.4%

1.3
1.3%

1.5
1.9%

1.5
1.9%

2.7
5.0%

64
64
65
65
64
65
65
64
65
62
64
62
61
62
63
64
64
64
63
62
61
64
63

2050
2100
7.2%
59.6%

57%
57%
57%
57%
58%
58%
58%
59%
59%
59%
60%
60%
60%
61%
61%
61%
62%
62%
62%
63%
63%
64%
64%
64%
65%
65%
66%

Population
adulte
mondiale
(UN official
population
series)
2,851
2,917
2,983
3,050
3,117
3,184
3,252
3,318
3,384
3,448
3,512
3,575
3,639
3,705
3,772
3,842
3,912
3,985
4,059
4,134
4,211
4,289
4,367
4,443
4,520
4,598
4,676

World GDP
(current $,
market
exchange
rate, W1)
18,288
19,435
20,654
21,949
23,024
24,627
24,966
26,810
29,750
30,357
30,297
30,191
31,317
32,331
32,136
33,393
37,565
42,268
45,673
49,485
55,794
61,199
57,860
63,141
70,067
73,478
77,055
4.2
5.7%
2.9
5.4%

World GDP
(current $,
PPP, W2)
22,119
23,185
24,304
25,476
26,742
27,849
28,990
30,540
32,241
34,064
36,137
37,684
39,566
42,480
44,511
46,603
49,242
53,073
57,257
62,679
67,882
71,816
72,084
76,431
81,297
85,404
89,719
4.1
5.5%
3.3%
3.0
5.6%
3.4%

World GDP
(constant
2012 $,
market
exchange
rate, W4)
31,506
32,694
33,926
35,205
35,716
37,414
37,115
39,062
42,360
42,472
41,586
40,866
41,779
42,217
41,033
41,957
46,224
50,589
52,909
55,533
60,849
65,299
61,087
65,903
71,188
73,478
75,841

Wealth/Inco Be careful: net product = 90% gross product


me Ratio
World wealth
World
World GDP World wealth
World GDP (Table S12.1
World GDP World wealth World wealth
(current $,
Wealth
per capita
per capita
(constant
for 1990per capita
per capita
(constant
market
(current
(constant
(constant
2012 , PPP, 2000-2010 +
(current PPP (current PPP 2012 , PPP,
exchange
millions $,
2012 , PPP, 2012 , PPP,
W7)
linear
$)
$)
W7)
rate, W1)
PPP)
W7)
W7)
interpolation
373%
31,754
61,438
74,307
7,759
26,065
106,678
11,139
37,420
s)
380%
32,502
66,465
79,291
7,950
27,187
111,155
11,144
38,112
387%
33,268
71,881
84,584
8,147
28,355
115,783
11,152
38,814
34,052
393%
77,715
90,203
8,353
29,576
120,568
11,165
39,532
397%
34,569
82,219
95,493
8,579
30,637
123,444
11,090
39,604
400%
35,258
88,686
100,289
8,746
31,495
126,969
11,072
39,873
403%
35,915
90,661
105,275
8,916
32,377
130,422
11,046
40,111
407%
37,080
98,168
111,824
9,204
33,702
135,772
11,175
40,919
410%
38,256
109,832
119,028
9,528
35,177
141,233
11,306
41,739
414%
39,716
112,989
126,789
9,879
36,770
147,824
11,518
42,871
417%
41,335
113,681
135,595
10,291
38,613
155,101
11,771
44,167
420%
42,508
114,196
142,540
10,541
39,871
160,786
11,890
44,975
424%
43,986
119,403
150,852
10,872
41,452
167,703
12,087
46,082
46,225
427%
124,244
163,245
11,466
44,061
177,637
12,476
47,945
434%
47,361
125,413
173,705
11,799
46,045
184,829
12,554
48,994
440%
48,795
132,311
184,651
12,131
48,067
193,336
12,702
50,328
447%
50,494
151,079
198,042
12,587
50,621
203,079
12,907
51,908
453%
52,935
172,515
216,617
13,320
54,363
216,052
13,285
54,221
460%
55,273
189,136
237,108
14,108
58,421
228,892
13,619
56,397
467%
58,616
207,872
263,297
15,161
63,688
246,230
14,178
59,560
473%
61,694
237,702
289,203
16,119
68,674
262,838
14,650
62,413
480%
63,857
264,378
310,245
16,744
72,335
275,861
14,888
64,318
430%
63,420
223,918
278,964
16,508
63,886
245,436
14,524
56,208
66,479
440%
249,970
302,583
17,202
68,102
263,185
14,962
59,235
441%
68,831
278,201
322,791
17,985
71,411
273,296
15,228
60,461
442%
71,170
292,597
340,090
18,575
73,967
283,408
15,479
61,639
444%
73,588
307,735
358,313
19,187
76,628
293,892
15,737
62,851

World GDP
(constant
2012 $, PPP,
W5)

Price index
PPP

Price index
MER

38,105
39,003
39,922
40,862
41,483
42,309
43,098
44,496
45,907
47,659
49,602
51,010
52,783
55,470
56,833
58,555
60,593
63,522
66,328
70,339
74,033
76,628
76,104
79,775
82,598
85,404
88,306

58
59
61
62
64
66
67
69
70
71
73
74
75
77
78
80
81
84
86
89
92
94
95
96
98
100
102

58
59
61
62
64
66
67
69
70
71
73
74
75
77
78
80
81
84
86
89
92
94
95
96
98
100
102

World GDP
(current ,
market
exchange
rate, W6)
16,116
16,776
17,462
18,176
19,669
19,769
21,327
22,466
22,211
23,514
26,910
27,158
29,395
35,092
35,913
35,482
33,284
34,041
36,727
39,446
40,765
41,779
41,650
47,674
50,403
56,521
63,382

2.4
3.4%

2.3
3.3%

1.8
2.2%

1.8
2.2%

3.9
5.4%

2.3
3.3%

1.9
3.2%

2.0
3.4%

1.5
2.2%

1.5
2.2%

2.6
4.9%

2.0
3.4%

5.0
6.4%
4.1%
3.2
6.0%
3.8%

4.8
6.2%
4.0%
3.4
6.2%
4.0%

2.5
3.5%
1.3%
2.1
3.7%
1.5%

2.9
4.2%
2.0%
2.3
4.3%
2.0%

2.8
4.0%
1.8%
2.2
4.0%
1.8%

1.4
1.3%

1.7
2.0%

1.3
1.5%

1.5
2.0%

Tableau S12.4a. Le rapport (capital priv)/(revenu national) au niveau mondial, 1870-2100 (estimations)
(sries utilises pour le graphique 12.4)

Capital priv
/revenu national

Monde

Europe

Amrique

Afrique

Asie

Total

Europe de l'Ouest

Europe de l'Est

Russie (+Ukraine/
Bilorussie/
Moldavie)

Amrique du Nord

Amrique Latine

Afrique du Nord

Afrique Subsaharienne

Chine

Inde

Japon

Australie/NZ

Moyen Orient (y.c.


Turquie)

Asie Centrale

Autres pays d'Asie

1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100

447%
464%
473%
489%
502%
358%
361%
301%
261%
275%
303%
340%
393%
427%
440%
450%
502%
513%
557%
605%
614%
627%
643%
667%

584%
581%
566%
587%
589%
285%
315%
273%
192%
216%
229%
264%
347%
437%
503%
493%
540%
529%
576%
608%
658%
670%
693%
725%

416%
416%
454%
434%
433%
406%
449%
322%
345%
347%
349%
368%
394%
434%
407%
423%
478%
490%
545%
582%
588%
597%
616%
641%

222%
268%
312%
356%
400%
400%
300%
300%
300%
300%
400%
400%
400%
400%
400%
348%
367%
353%
384%
448%
460%
486%
483%
490%

318%
346%
369%
392%
421%
425%
342%
325%
240%
265%
348%
401%
445%
416%
429%
457%
519%
548%
594%
652%
660%
675%
701%
736%

447%
464%
473%
489%
502%
358%
361%
301%
261%
275%
303%
340%
393%
427%
440%
450%
502%
513%
557%
605%
614%
627%
643%
667%

680%
671%
643%
662%
659%
343%
386%
328%
232%
267%
285%
331%
403%
490%
545%
541%
605%
596%
656%
672%
707%
708%
721%
744%

300%
325%
350%
375%
400%
200%
200%
200%
100%
100%
100%
100%
200%
300%
400%
383%
404%
401%
435%
492%
565%
599%
643%
693%

300%
325%
350%
375%
400%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
200%
300%
400%
388%
414%
411%
445%
501%
571%
600%
638%
683%

446%
437%
478%
448%
440%
407%
485%
328%
356%
361%
332%
357%
392%
447%
410%
414%
463%
459%
502%
513%
537%
548%
567%
592%

300%
325%
350%
375%
400%
400%
300%
300%
300%
300%
400%
400%
400%
400%
400%
438%
502%
534%
601%
669%
651%
659%
678%
706%

300%
325%
350%
375%
400%
400%
300%
300%
300%
300%
400%
400%
400%
400%
400%
371%
396%
401%
439%
534%
535%
557%
587%
623%

200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
400%
300%
300%
300%
300%
400%
400%
400%
400%
400%
337%
354%
335%
365%
423%
441%
471%
462%
466%

300%
325%
350%
375%
400%
400%
300%
300%
100%
100%
100%
100%
200%
300%
400%
480%
574%
634%
682%
761%
815%
846%
895%
961%

300%
325%
350%
375%
400%
400%
300%
300%
300%
300%
400%
400%
400%
400%
400%
372%
398%
402%
440%
489%
497%
528%
565%
607%

600%
600%
600%
600%
600%
600%
600%
500%
200%
300%
372%
531%
616%
586%
601%
607%
702%
704%
806%
833%
891%
889%
905%
934%

300%
325%
350%
375%
400%
400%
400%
300%
300%
300%
343%
351%
407%
500%
518%
490%
517%
500%
536%
545%
569%
578%
596%
621%

300%
325%
350%
375%
400%
400%
300%
300%
300%
300%
400%
400%
400%
400%
400%
421%
470%
489%
540%
594%
565%
562%
570%
586%

300%
325%
350%
375%
400%
400%
300%
300%
300%
300%
400%
400%
400%
400%
400%
439%
502%
532%
596%
659%
638%
638%
650%
670%

300%
325%
350%
375%
400%
400%
300%
300%
300%
300%
400%
400%
400%
400%
400%
434%
493%
523%
585%
651%
632%
641%
660%
687%

Tableau S12.4b. La rpartition du PIB mondial, 1870-2100 (estimations)

Rpartition du
PIB mondial
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100

Monde

Europe

Amrique

Afrique

Asie

Total

Europe de l'Ouest

Europe de l'Est

Russie (+Ukraine/
Bilorussie/
Moldavie)

Amrique du Nord

Amrique Latine

Afrique du Nord

Afrique Subsaharienne

Chine

Inde

Japon

Australie/NZ

Moyen Orient (y.c.


Turquie)

Asie Centrale

Autres pays d'Asie

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

46%
46%
46%
46%
47%
43%
43%
43%
39%
39%
40%
37%
34%
29%
25%
22%
19%
16%
14%
13%
12%
12%
11%
11%

12%
18%
18%
18%
24%
30%
30%
30%
36%
34%
32%
33%
33%
31%
29%
27%
25%
23%
21%
21%
21%
21%
21%
21%

4%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
6%
7%
9%
12%
13%
15%
17%
18%
19%

39%
32%
32%
32%
26%
23%
23%
23%
21%
23%
24%
27%
29%
36%
42%
46%
50%
52%
54%
53%
52%
51%
50%
48%

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

34%
34%
34%
34%
34%
31%
31%
31%
27%
27%
28%
26%
25%
21%
18%
15%
12%
10%
9%
8%
8%
8%
7%
7%

5%
5%
5%
5%
6%
5%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%

6%
7%
7%
7%
7%
8%
8%
8%
8%
8%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%

9%
14%
14%
14%
20%
24%
24%
24%
29%
26%
24%
24%
25%
22%
20%
18%
15%
14%
12%
12%
11%
12%
12%
12%

2%
3%
3%
3%
4%
6%
6%
6%
8%
8%
8%
8%
9%
9%
9%
9%
9%
9%
9%
9%
9%
9%
9%
9%

1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%

3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
3%
4%
5%
7%
9%
10%
12%
14%
15%
16%

17%
13%
13%
13%
9%
7%
7%
7%
5%
4%
3%
3%
4%
9%
15%
17%
19%
20%
22%
20%
18%
17%
16%
14%

12%
9%
9%
9%
7%
6%
6%
6%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
4%
6%
7%
9%
10%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%

2%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
5%
8%
9%
9%
7%
5%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%

1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%

2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
3%
4%
4%
4%
5%
6%
6%
7%
7%
7%
8%
8%
8%
9%
9%

1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%

4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
5%
7%
8%
9%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%

10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%

10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%

10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%

10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%

20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
10%
10%
10%
10%

20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
10%
10%
10%
10%

20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
15%
15%
10%
10%

30%
30%
30%
25%
15%
10%
10%
10%
10%

20%
20%
20%
20%
15%
10%
10%
10%
10%

10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%

10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%

20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
10%
10%
10%
10%

20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
10%
10%
10%
10%

20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
10%
10%
10%
10%

15%
17%
19%
20%
22%
10%
10%
10%
4%
4%
4%
4%
6%
9%
11%
10%
10%
9%
9%
9%
10%
10%
10%
10%

19%
22%
24%
25%
29%
8%
8%
8%
8%
8%
8%
7%
12%
16%
17%
16%
15%
14%
14%
14%
14%
15%
15%
16%

41%
63%
69%
65%
87%
99%
118%
79%
102%
96%
80%
87%
97%
100%
82%
73%
70%
62%
59%
60%
62%
64%
67%
71%

7%
11%
12%
12%
17%
24%
18%
18%
23%
23%
32%
33%
34%
35%
35%
40%
47%
49%
54%
62%
61%
61%
62%
64%

3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
4%
4%
5%
5%
6%
7%
9%
10%
13%
16%
16%
17%
18%
19%

6%
7%
8%
9%
8%
10%
8%
8%
9%
8%
11%
10%
9%
10%
10%
13%
18%
23%
32%
44%
53%
64%
69%
77%

51%
42%
45%
48%
35%
27%
20%
20%
5%
4%
3%
3%
7%
27%
58%
81%
111%
130%
147%
150%
146%
141%
139%
138%

35%
31%
33%
36%
29%
23%
17%
17%
12%
10%
11%
12%
12%
17%
23%
27%
35%
41%
52%
59%
62%
65%
68%
72%

14%
15%
15%
15%
16%
17%
17%
15%
6%
16%
29%
45%
57%
43%
32%
26%
24%
19%
17%
16%
15%
15%
14%
14%

2%
2%
3%
3%
4%
4%
4%
3%
4%
4%
4%
4%
5%
6%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%

7%
7%
7%
8%
7%
8%
6%
6%
7%
9%
15%
16%
17%
20%
23%
26%
31%
34%
39%
45%
46%
47%
50%
53%

3%
4%
4%
4%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
5%
8%
7%
6%
4%
3%
3%
4%
4%
4%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%

11%
12%
13%
14%
14%
15%
11%
11%
11%
12%
15%
21%
27%
32%
36%
41%
49%
51%
57%
66%
66%
66%
67%
70%

World GDP
(billions 2012
PPP)
71,170
102,088
133,005
187,795
242,585
292,641
342,697
398,852
455,006
511,161

Taux d'pargne
2010-2100
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2040-2050
2050-2060
2060-2070
2070-2080
2080-2090
2090-2100

Wealth/income ratios: Europe et Amrique du Nord 1870-2010: Table S4.5; Japon et Australie 1970-2010: Table S5.1 (moyennes dcennales); liens casss le 8-2-2013
Rpartition du PIB mondial: Tableau S1.1 (1870-2010); Tableau CTS1.3 (2030-2100); liens casss le 7-4-2013
Tableau S12.4c. La rpartition du capital priv mondial, 1870-2100 (estimations) (sries utilises pour le
graphique 12.5)

Capital priv
/revenu mondial

Total

Europe

Amrique

Afrique

Asie

1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100

447%
464%
473%
489%
502%
358%
361%
301%
261%
275%
303%
340%
393%
427%
440%
450%
502%
513%
557%
605%
614%
627%
643%
667%

267%
269%
262%
272%
277%
123%
136%
118%
76%
85%
91%
97%
117%
128%
126%
107%
100%
85%
79%
78%
78%
78%
79%
81%

48%
74%
81%
77%
104%
122%
135%
97%
125%
119%
113%
121%
131%
135%
117%
113%
117%
111%
113%
121%
123%
125%
129%
135%

9%
9%
11%
13%
12%
14%
10%
10%
12%
11%
15%
15%
14%
15%
16%
19%
26%
33%
45%
60%
70%
81%
87%
95%

123%
112%
120%
127%
110%
99%
80%
76%
49%
60%
85%
108%
131%
149%
181%
210%
258%
284%
320%
346%
344%
343%
348%
356%

447%
464%
473%
489%
502%
358%
361%
301%
261%
275%
303%
340%
393%
427%
440%
450%
502%
513%
557%
605%
614%
627%
643%
667%

1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010

Private wealth (% Y)
USA
Europe
446%
680%
437%
671%
478%
643%
448%
662%
440%
659%
407%
343%
485%
386%
328%
328%
356%
232%
361%
267%
332%
285%
357%
331%
392%
403%
447%
490%
410%
545%

Govt wealth (% Y)
USA
Europe
-3%
21%
15%
17%
28%
23%
27%
11%
35%
5%
27%
-32%
51%
-11%
22%
-50%
28%
16%
48%
33%
68%
37%
60%
40%
27%
26%
45%
9%
21%
9%

Govt wealth (% W)
USA
Europe
-1%
3%
3%
2%
5%
3%
6%
2%
7%
1%
6%
-10%
10%
-3%
6%
-18%
7%
7%
12%
11%
17%
12%
14%
11%
6%
6%
9%
2%
5%
2%

Nationa wealth (% Y)
USA
Europe
443%
701%
452%
688%
505%
665%
475%
673%
475%
664%
434%
311%
537%
375%
350%
277%
384%
249%
409%
301%
400%
322%
418%
371%
419%
428%
492%
499%
431%
553%

232%
229%
220%
226%
226%
106%
119%
101%
63%
73%
79%
86%
99%
104%
97%
81%
74%
62%
57%
55%
54%
53%
54%
55%

Tableau S12.5. Actifs trangers nets dtenus par les pays riches et les paradis fiscaux (sries utilises pour
le graphique 12.6)

Actifs trangers
nets (en % du PIB
mondial)

Europe

Etats-Unis

Japon

Pays riches
(Europe + EtatsUnis + Japon)

1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

-1.2%
-1.0%
-0.6%
-0.7%
-1.0%
-1.5%
-1.9%
-1.9%
-2.1%
-1.9%
-2.2%
-2.1%
-1.5%
-3.1%
-2.8%
-2.3%
-1.7%
-2.9%
-3.3%
-4.0%
-2.8%
-4.0%
-4.2%
-3.8%

0.5%
-0.2%
-0.4%
-0.9%
-1.3%
-1.1%
-1.3%
-1.7%
-1.1%
-1.1%
-1.4%
-1.5%
-2.6%
-2.9%
-2.3%
-4.2%
-5.9%
-6.1%
-5.6%
-5.3%
-4.2%
-4.4%
-3.2%
-5.3%

1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.5%
1.5%
1.7%
2.1%
2.5%
2.6%
2.8%
2.9%
3.2%
3.8%
2.7%
3.6%
4.2%
4.4%
4.3%
4.2%
3.4%
3.7%
3.9%
4.0%

0.3%
0.0%
0.4%
0.0%
-0.7%
-1.0%
-1.5%
-1.5%
-0.8%
-0.5%
-0.9%
-0.7%
-1.0%
-2.1%
-2.5%
-2.9%
-3.3%
-4.6%
-4.6%
-5.1%
-3.7%
-4.8%
-3.5%
-5.0%

Source: Zucman 2013, Figure 1 andAppendix Table A27

Paradis fiscaux

7.9%
7.2%
7.6%
7.9%
8.1%
7.6%
9.2%
7.3%

Detailed computations based upon NACUBO All-US-Universities endowment statistics (www.nabuco.org)


Published NABUCO data
see pdf files and printed copies

Own computations

Nominal return ($
Nominal return (e
CPI
Real return ($ we
Real return (equa

2000-2010
4.4%
3.4%
2.3%
2.1%
1.1%

1990-2000
15.0%
13.2%
2.1%
12.6%
10.9%

1980-1990
14.8%
13.4%
4.2%
10.2%
8.8%

1980-2010
11.3%
9.9%
2.9%
8.2%
6.8%

1990-2010
9.6%
8.2%
2.2%
7.2%
5.9%

Nominal:
Over 1 bil. $
500m-1b$
100m-500m$
0-100m$

5.0%
3.6%
3.3%
2.9%

15.6%
14.0%
13.3%
12.2%

15.6%
15.3%
14.1%
12.8%

12.0%
10.8%
10.1%
9.2%

10.2%
8.7%
8.2%
7.4%

Real:
Over 1 bil. $
500m-1b$
100m-500m$
0-100m$

2.6%
1.3%
1.0%
0.6%

13.2%
11.7%
11.0%
9.9%

10.9%
10.7%
9.5%
8.3%

8.8%
7.8%
7.1%
6.2%

7.8%
6.3%
5.9%
5.1%

Nominal:
Harvard
Yale
Princeton

7.1%
8.9%
7.9%

17.0%
17.5%
16.8%

14.7%
15.6%
15.6%

12.8%
13.9%
13.4%

11.9%
13.1%
12.3%

Real:
Harvard
Yale
Princeton

4.7%
6.5%
5.5%

14.6%
15.1%
14.4%

10.0%
10.9%
10.9%

9.7%
10.8%
10.2%

9.5%
10.7%
9.8%

Harvard: see official Harvard reports


Yale: see Yale Report 2010 p.3; Yale Report 2000 p.4
Princeton: see Princeton Report 2010 pp.18-19;
(2-4-13) Be careful: to be consistent with GDP series, I have replaced CPI by GDP deflator on this table
2000-2010
1990-2000
1980-1990
CPI
2.8%
2.9%
4.4%
GDP deflator
2.3%
2.1%
4.2%

www.nabuco.org)

computations

or on this table

1980-2000
14.9%
13.3%
3.1%
11.4%
9.8%

15.6%
14.6%
13.7%
12.5%

12.1%
11.2%
10.2%
9.1%

15.8%
16.5%
16.2%

12.3%
13.0%
12.7%