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at the Earth's surface, the rate of cooling of the planet's interior, the gravitational
interactions with other objects in the Solar System, and a steady increase in the
Sun's luminosity. An uncertain factor in this extrapolation is the ongoing influence of
technology introduced by humans, such as climate engineering, which could cause
significant changes to the planet. The current Holocene extinction is being caused
by technology and the effects may last for up to five million years. In turn,
technology may result in the extinction of humanity, leaving the planet to gradually
return to a slower evolutionary pace resulting solely from long-term natural
processes.
Over time intervals of hundreds of millions of years, random celestial events pose a
global risk to the biosphere, which can result in mass extinctions. These include
impacts by comets or asteroids with diameters of 510 km (3.16.2 mi) or more,
and the possibility of a massive stellar explosion, called a supernova, within a 100light-year radius of the Sun, called a Near-Earth supernova. Other large-scale
geological events are more predictable. If the long-term effects of global warming
are disregarded, Milankovitch theory predicts that the planet will continue to
undergo glacial periods at least until the quaternary glaciation comes to an end.
These periods are caused by eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession of the Earth's
orbit. As part of the ongoing supercontinent cycle, plate tectonics will probably
result in a supercontinent in 250350 million years. Some time in the next 1.5
4.5 billion years, the axial tilt of the Earth may begin to undergo chaotic variations,
with changes in the axial tilt of up to 90.
During the next four billion years, the luminosity of the Sun will steadily increase,
resulting in a rise in the solar radiation reaching the Earth. This will cause a higher
rate of weathering of silicate minerals, which will cause a decrease in the level of
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. In about 600 million years, the level of CO2 will
fall below the level needed to sustain C3 carbon fixation photosynthesis used by
trees. Some plants use the C4 carbon fixation method, allowing them to persist
at CO2 concentrations as low as 10 parts per million. However, the long-term trend
is for plant life to die off altogether. The extinction of plants will be the demise of
almost all animal life, since plants are the base of the food chain on Earth.
In about 1.1 billion years, the solar luminosity will be 10% higher than at present.
This will cause the atmosphere to become a "moist greenhouse", resulting in a
runaway evaporation of the oceans. As a likely consequence, plate tectonics will
come to an end, and with them the entire carbon cycle. Following this event, the
planet's magnetic dynamo may come to an end, causing the magnetosphere to
decay and leading to an accelerated loss of volatiles from the outer atmosphere.
Four billion years from now, the increase in the Earth's surface temperature will
cause a runaway greenhouse effect. By that point, most if not all the life on the
surface will be extinct. The most probable fate of the planet is absorption by the
Sun in about 7.5 billion years, after the star has entered the red giant phase and
expanded to cross the planet's current orbit.
III. The Importance of Optimism in Future-Set Movies and TV
Author: The Artifice
Website: The Artifice
URL: http://the-artifice.com/the-importance-of-optimism-in-future-set-movies-tv/
Date Posted: October 2015
Date Retrieved: November 24, 2015
"Although it was on the air for only one season, The Jetsons remains our most popular
point of reference when discussing the future." (Matt Novak, smithsonianmag.com)
Since The Jetsons "promised" us flying cars more than 50 years ago, we continue to
refer back to the show as one of the only mainstream depictions of a future with a
positive outcome. Granted, cinema in the 60s still included the larger-than-life conflicts
(literally) with movies like Mothra vs. Godzilla, 2001: A Space Odyssey and Planet of the
Apes, it seemed like the depiction of the Jetsons is the only piece that prevailed in a
technologically relevant way. But to pose the question of why The Jetsons has continued
to be arguably one of the most influential "science fantasy" cartoon depictions is to
pose the question of whether optimistic depictions of future shape the way we innovate
and live our lives.
The day Im writing this is a date that the 1989 film, Back to the Future, predicted the
sorts of technological advancements we will have made, and they were relatively close.
A CNN article, "What did Back to the Future II get right?" by Todd Leopold illuminates
what was and wasnt correct about the films predictions.
However, around the same time as Back to the Future, we were beginning to see
movies like Mad Max, depicting a sort of "post-apocalyptic" future, along with movies
like The Terminator, The Matrix and Blade Runner depicting a sort of "dystopian" future.
In a different way, these were becoming more common and more mainstream, possibly
due to the advent of affordable visual effects and digital imaging. Regardless, it seems
that the rising generations are growing up with zombies, apocalypses, and a fear of
artificial intelligence or government totalitarianism. Maybe it didnt help that The
Terminator came out the year that George Orwell warned the world could be
approaching a totalitarian system of constant war and surveillance.
In summation, assuming, for now, that the influence this media has can determine our
course of progression and innovation as a world, than should the media industries be
sharing a sort of responsibility in reenacting optimistic outcomes in future-set movies
and TV?
IV. Scientists: Disaster movie Day After Tomorrow predicts our apocalyptic future
Author: Dan Taylor
Website: Morning Ticker
URL:http://www.morningticker.com/2015/10/scientists-disaster-movie-day-aftertomorrow-predicts-our-apocalyptic-future/
Date Posted: October 10, 2015
Date Retrieved: November 24, 2015
The 2004 film contained scenes of New York City totally frozen over and a series of
storms and other natural disasters a premise that was mocked by scientists when
it was released but is now being held up as an accurate depiction of our future,
according to a TomDispatch report.
New reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) argues
that these fantastical depictions of apocalyptic conditions may be not so far from
the truth due to the growing impact of climate change and the resulting global
warming.
For years, scientists believed that the changes in climate would be linear i.e.,
gradual every single year. But now they think there may be some non-liner shifts
in climate, or tipping points, when there would be a sudden change in the climate
that would be catastrophic to humanity.
It was this fear that the 2004 film was based on, and 11 years later scientists are
starting to see such tipping points, suggesting there may be early indicators that
such catastrophes will take place.
In The Day After Tomorrow, there is a pivotal event: the disruption of the North
Atlantic Current, a deep-sea current that carries warm water from the Caribbean to
the northern parts of the Atlantic, keeping Europe relatively warm. This process
allows the Gulf Stream to bring warmer waters to the eastern United States as well.
If it were disrupted, it could suddenly create a colder Euro-Atlantic climate, and it
could lead to the formation of tremendous storms.
Could this happen? Scientists say its possible that the huge Greenland ice sheet, if
it melts significantly, could do just that by dumping lots of fresh water into the
ocean, creating a situation where the warm salty water cant sink to the bottom and
return to the Caribbean and thus stopping this global conveyer belt.
This shutdown hasnt happened yet, but scientists do see it slowing down and
should there be a rapid increase in the Greenland ice sheet melting, it could
represent a tipping point that would have big consequences for both Europe and
North America.