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BIO360H5F

NAME (PRINT):
Last/Surname

STUDENT #:

First /Given Name

SIGNATURE:

UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO MISSISSAUGA

DECEMBER 2011 FINAL EXAMINATION
BIO360H5F
Biometrics I
Helene Wagner
Duration - 2 hours
Aids: Non-Programmable Calculators
The University of Toronto Mississauga and you, as a student, share a commitment to
academic integrity. You are reminded that you may be charged with an academic
offence for possessing any unauthorized aids during the writing of an exam, including
but not limited to any electronic devices with storage, such as cell phones, pagers,
personal digital assistants (PDAs), iPods, and MP3 players. Unauthorized calculators
and notes are also not permitted. Do not have any of these items in your possession in
the area of your desk. Please turn the electronics off and put all unauthorized aids with
your belongings at the front of the room before the examination begins. If any of these
items are kept with you during the writing of your exam, you may be charged with an
academic offence. A typical penalty may cause you to fail the course.
Please note, you CANNOT petition to re-write an examination once the exam has
begun.

TEST QUESTIONS
1.
2.
2.

3.
4.
5.
6.

This exam contains 25 problems with a total of 46 questions on 11 pages.

There is additional space for notes on page 12. Pages 13 18 describe the four example
data sets used in this exam.
Question point value to a total of 100 points:
- Matching questions are worth 1 point each (28 points)
- Multiple choice questions are worth 4 points each (72 points).
Choose the best answer for each question. There is one and only one correct answer for
each question.
No marks are deducted for incorrect answers, so answer all questions.
Transfer all of your answers to the Scantron computer sheet. No answers on the test paper
will be marked.
You must hand in both your Scantron computer sheet AND your test paper.

SCANTRON computer sheet

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

Follow the instructions on the sheet.

Use PENCIL and erase any changes completely.
Write your student number in the 9 boxes and bubble in the numbers in the correct
columns.
Write your name, date, and course in the upper right in the spaces provided.
Do NOT write anything along the top or side of the Scantron sheet.
For each question bubble your answer during the time allowed.

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BIO360H5F

REFER TO EXAMPLE 1
Topic 1: Hypothesis testing
4 marks

Multiple choice: Refer to Example 1. If you wanted to test for a difference in

mean bone density measurements for the lumbar spine and for the femoral neck,
which of the following tests should you use? Select one answer and enter it under
question 1 of the Scantron form.

(A)
(B)
(C)
(D)

Independent samples t-test.

Non-parametric test for independent samples.
Paired-samples t-test.
Non-parametric test for paired samples.

Femoral neck bone density

Topic 2: Correlation
0.69

0.66

0.63
0.80

0.85

0.90

Lumbar spine bone density

Matching: Refer to Example 1. In the empty figure above, sketch the correlation
between lumbar spine bone density and femoral neck bone density. For each of the
following statements, say whether it is true (A) or false (B). Use questions 2 5 on the
Scantron form, one question per statement.
1 mark
1 mark
1 mark
1 mark

2
3
4
5

If the measurement after 79 months was omitted, the correlation would increase.
If the measurement after 92 months was omitted, the correlation would increase.
It is reasonable to expect a strong correlation between the two variables.
The relationship between the two variables is directed.

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BIO360H5F

Topic 3: Regression
4 marks

Multiple choice: Refer to Example 1, regression results. Based on this data set,
what is the estimated increase of bone density of the lumbar spine per year? Hint:
pay attention to units! Select one answer and enter it under question 6 of the
Scantron form.

(A)
(B)
(C)
(D)

0.00015 g/cm2.
0.00088 g/cm2.
0.01056 g/cm2.
0.00031 g/cm2.

Matching: Refer to Example 1, regression results. For each of the following statements,
say whether it is true (A) or false (B). Use questions 7 10 on the Scantron form, one
question per statement.
1 mark

1 mark
1 mark
1 mark

8
9
10

4 marks

11

The p-value for a two-sided hypothesis test that femoral neck bone density changed
over the treatment period is 0.104.
If more measurements were taken, the p-value would likely be lower.
We may predict lumbar spine bone density after 120 months as 0.90 g/cm2.
The correlation between bone density and time from baseline is more than twice as
strong for lumbar spine than for femoral neck.

Multiple choice: Refer to Example 1, regression results. What is the correct

interpretation of the data? Select one answer and enter it under question 11 of the
Scantron form.

(A) The treatment should be recommended to other patients with low bone density,
because the data showed that treatment was effective at increasing bone density at
least for the lumbar spine.
(B) The experiment should be repeated with more patients and with randomization and
control, because the data suggested that treatment was effective at increasing bone
density at least for the lumbar spine.
(C) The treatment should only be recommended to patients with low bone density in the
lumbar spine, because the data showed that treatment was not effective at increasing
bone density of the femoral neck.
(D) The experiment should be repeated with more patients and with randomization and
control, because the effect of treatment on femoral neck bone density will likely be
stronger if the number of subjects was increased.

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BIO360H5F

REFER TO EXAMPLE 2
Topic 4: Describing data graphically
4 marks

12

Multiple choice: Refer to Example 2. What would be the best way to graphically
display the data in Table 1? Select one answer and enter it under question 12 of the
Scantron form.

(A)
(B)
(C)
(D)

Side-by-side boxplots.
Scatterplot with groups.
Side-by-side bar charts.
Stacked (i.e., segmented) bar charts.

Topic 5: Conditional probability

4 marks

4 marks

13

Multiple choice: Refer to Example 2, Table 1 and Table 2. Based on these data,
what is the probability that a randomly selected Caucasian woman aged <50 with
breast cancer will die within five years after diagnosis? Select one answer and enter
it under question 13 of the Scantron form. Hint: draw a tree diagram.

(A)
(B)
(C)
(D)

0.107
0.893
0.728
0.273

14

Multiple choice: Refer to Example 2, Table 1 and Table 2. Based on these data,
what is the probability that a randomly selected Caucasian woman aged <50 with
breast cancer who died within five years after diagnosis was diagnosed in an early,
localized stage? Select one answer and enter it under question 14 of the Scantron
form.

(A)
(B)
(C)
(D)

0.019
0.154
0.177
0.583

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BIO360H5F

Topic 6: One-proportion z-test

Refer to Example 2. Consider the data in Table 1 as the distribution in the population of
all Caucasian or African-American women with breast cancer in the United States. You
want to design a study to compare the Canadian and US American health systems to
determine whether Caucasian breast cancer patients aged 50+ in Canada are equally
likely to be diagnosed in an early, localized stage as the same group in the US.
4 marks

15

Multiple choice: In a random sample of 100 Caucasian breast cancer patients aged
50+ from Canada, 60 were diagnosed in an early, localized stage. Perform a oneproportion z-test. Which of the following statements is the correct conclusion of this
test? Select one answer and enter it under question 15 of the Scantron form.

(A)
(B)
(C)
(D)

The assumptions for a 1-proportion z-test are not met.

The proportion is significantly different from the proportion in the US.
The proportion is significantly lower than the proportion in the US.
The proportion is not significantly different from the proportion in the US.

Topic 7: Sampling distribution

4 marks

16

Multiple choice: Refer to Example 2. Assume that among Caucasian breast cancer
patients aged 50+ from Canada, the true proportion of diagnoses in an early,
localized stage is 64 % as in the United States. What sample size would be needed
to estimate this proportion with a margin of error of 4 % or less? Select one answer
and enter it under question 16 of the Scantron form. Note: if the correct value is not
among those listed, select the nearest value.

(A)
(B)
(C)
(D)

144
288
576
1152

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BIO360H5F

Topic 8: Statistical power

4 marks

17

Multiple choice: Refer to question 15, where among 100 Caucasian breast cancer
patients aged 50+ from Canada, 60 were diagnosed in an early, localized stage.
Which of the figures A D below shows, as a shaded area, the power of a one-sided
test (alpha = 0.05) with the null hypothesis that the true proportion of diagnoses in
an early, localized stage is 64 % or higher and the alternative hypothesis that it is
lower than 64 %, when in fact the true proportion in Canada is 60 %? Select one
answer and enter it under question 17 of the Scantron form.

Topic 9: Two-way tables

Matching: Refer to Example 2, chi-square test results. For each of the following
statements, indicate whether it is true. Use questions 18 21 on the Scantron form, one
question per statement.
1 mark

18

1 mark

19

1 mark

20

1 mark

21

African-American women with breast cancer aged 50+ were more likely than any
other group diagnosed with breast cancer at a late, distant stage.
Caucasian women with breast cancer aged 50+ and older were more likely than all
other groups diagnosed at an early, localized stage.
African-American women with breast cancer aged <50 were less likely than any
other group diagnosed in an early, localized stage.
Caucasian women with breast cancer aged <50 were more likely diagnosed in a
late, distant stage than African-American women of the same age group.

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BIO360H5F

4 marks

22

Multiple choice: Refer to Example 2, chi-square test results. Which is the correct
interpretation of the results from this two-way table analysis? Select one answer and
enter it under question 22 of the Scantron form.

(A) There is an important, statistically significant association between stage of cancer at

diagnosis and groups defined by age and race.
(B) There is a statistically significant association, but it is likely too weak to be
practically relevant.
(C) The association was not statistically significant, but there is a considerable risk of a
type II error. Repeat the study with a larger sample to reach a conclusion.
(D) The association was not statistically significant and the power of the test was
reasonably large, so there probably is no strong association in the population.

REFER TO EXAMPLE 3
Topic 10: Confidence Interval
4 marks

23

Multiple choice: Refer to Example 3. Which estimate of mean wing length in

females is most precise? Select one answer and enter it under question 23 of the
Scantron form.

(A)
(B)
(C)
(D)

European females, because they have the smallest mean.

Siberian females, because they have the smallest standard deviation.
European females, because they have the largest sample size.
Siberian females, because they have the smallest standard error.

Topic 11: Random Variables

4 marks

24

Multiple choice: Refer to Example 3. What is the standard deviation of the mean
difference in wing length of a male and a female stonechat bird from the African
region? Select one answer and enter it under question 24 of the Scantron form.

(A)
(B)
(C)
(D)

1.905
0.635
1.690
0.150

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BIO360H5F

Topic 12: Testing Differences in Means

Matching: Refer to Example 3: consider testing the hypothesis that in stonechat birds
from the African region, females have shorter wing length than males. For each of the
following statements, say whether it is true (A) or false (B). Use questions 25 28 on the
Scantron form, one question per statment.
1 mark
1 mark
1 mark
1 mark

25
26
27
28

The conditions for using an independent samples t-test are met.

The conditions for using an independent samples z-test are met.
A two-sided alternative should be used.
The null hypothesis is that mean wing length is zero.

4 marks

29

Multiple choice: Refer to Example 3. Perform a t-test to test the alternative

hypothesis that in stonechat birds, males from the Irish region have shorter wing
length than males from the Siberian region. This might be expected from their
migration pattern. What is the correct conclusion from this test? Select one answer
and enter it under question 29 of the Scantron form.

(A) Males from the Irish region did have shorter mean wing length than males from the
Siberian region, but the difference is not statistically significant.
(B) Males from the Irish region did have shorter mean wing length than males from the
Siberian region, and the difference is statistically significant.
(C) The test showed that males from the Irish region did not have shorter mean wing
length than males from the Siberian region.
(D) There was not enough information given to determine whether males from the Irish
region have shorter mean wing length than males from the Siberian region.

Matching: Refer to the example in question 29. For each of the following statements, say
whether it is true (A) or false (B). Use questions 30 33 on the Scantron form, one
question per study.
1 mark
1 mark

30
31

1 mark
1 mark

32
33

If a z-test was performed, the p-value would be larger than if a t-test was performed.
If a non-parametric test had been performed, the p-value would likely be smaller
than for a parametric test.
If the sample size was doubled, we would expect the p-value to be smaller.
If the difference was larger, we would expect the p-value to be larger.

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BIO360H5F

Topic 13: Study Design

4 marks

34

Multiple choice: Refer to Example 3. What design best describes this study? Select
one answer and enter it under question 34 of the Scantron form.

(A)
(B)
(C)
(D)

Randomized experiment design.

Stratified random sample design.
Randomized block design.
This cannot be determined with the information given.

Topic 14: Normal Distribution

4 marks

35

Multiple choice: Refer to Example 3. You are given an additional male bird
specimen of unknown origin with wing length of 70.9 cm. Which is the most likely
source population for this specimen? Select one answer and enter it under question
35 of the Scantron form.

(A)
(B)
(C)
(D)

African.
European.
Irish.
Siberian.

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BIO360H5F

REFER TO EXAMPLE 4
Topic 15: Experimental Design
Matching: For each of the following statements, say whether it is true (A) or false (B).
Use questions 36 39 on the Scantron form, one question per statement.
1 mark
1 mark
1 mark
1 mark

36
37
38
39

The experiment does not use a control group.

The randomization eliminates all potential confounding variables.
The experiment has two factors and four treatments.
The experiment should use double blinding to avoid bias.

Topic 16: Interaction Plot

40

Multiple choice: Refer to Example 4. Which of the figures A D below shows a

correct interaction plot of the data? Select one answer and enter it under question 40
of the Scantron form.

10

Change in DBP

4 marks

Group1

Group2

Group3

Group4

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BIO360H5F

Topic 17: ANOVA

4 marks

41

Multiple choice: Refer to Example 4. Which is the correct interpretation of the

ANOVA table above for a one-way ANOVA of the data? Select one answer and
enter it under question 41 of the Scantron form.

(A) There is an important, statistically significant difference among populations.

(B) There is a statistically significant effect, but the differences among populations are
too small to be practically relevant.
(C) The effect was not statistically significant, but there is a considerable risk of a type
II error. Repeat the study with a larger sample to reach a conclusion.
(D) The effect was not statistically significant and the power of the test was reasonably
large, so there probably are no large differences among populations.
(E) The assumptions of the test were not met so we should not interpret the results. Use
another method that does not make these assumptions

Matching: Refer to Example 4. For each of the following statements, say whether it is
true (A) or false (B). Use questions 42 45 on the Scantron form, one question per
statement.
1 mark

42

1 mark
1 mark
1 mark

43
44
45

4 marks

46

The results show a correlation between non-pharmacologic treatment and change in

blood pressure (DBP).
The treatment factor uses four degrees of freedom.
The treatment explained 15.8 % of the variation in change in DBP.
The p-value for the treatment is smaller than = 0.05, which means that at least two
groups differ in mean change in DBP.

Multiple choice: Refer to Example 4. Based on the ANOVA results, what

conclusion should we draw regarding the counseling treatments? Select one answer
and enter it under question 46 of the Scantron form.

(A) Any type of counseling, i.e., weight loss, meditation, or both, is effective and leads
to roughly the same reduction in blood pressure.
(B) The ANOVA results show that counseling for either weight loss or meditation, but
not both, is ineffective: both need to be combined to reduce blood pressure.
(C) Additional data or analysis are needed to reliably test whether counseling for either
weight loss or meditation alone is effective at reducing blood pressure.
(D) None of the counseling methods is effective at reducing blood pressure.

Total marks = 100

BIO360H5F

Space for your notes.

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BIO360H5F

yi
y ~ N y , y

n
n

1
2
(
)

s2 =
y
y
y t * SE

i
n 1
y
s12 s22
z=
SE ( y1 y 2 ) =
+

y=

n1

y
~ t (df = n 1)
s n

t df =

p ~ N p,

p (1 p )

p z * SE

n2

( y1 y2 ) ( 1 2 )
SE ( y1 y2 )

Var ( X Y ) = var( X ) + var(Y ) 2Cov ( X , Y )

(obs exp) 2
=
exp
2

V=

2
n min(r 1, c 1)

Example 1: Change in Bone Density

A 65-year-old woman with low bone density received treatment over seven years with the
aim of increasing bone density. Bone density was measured at irregular intervals over the
treatment period. The results for change in bone density (measured in g/cm2) are shown
in the table below, separately for the lumbar spine and for the femoral neck. The next
page shows graphical and numerical Minitab output relating to this data set.
Visit
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Time from baseline

(in months)
0
8
18
48
64
66
79
92

Bone density,
lumbar spine
0.797
0.806
0.817
0.825
0.837
0.841
0.886
0.881

Bone density,
femoral neck
0.643
0.638
0.648
0.674
0.640
0.676
0.651
0.680

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BIO360H5F

Regression Analysis: Bone density lumbar spine versus Time from baseline
The regression equation is
Bone density lumbar spine = 0.795 + 0.000880 Time from baseline
(months)
Predictor
Constant
Time from baseline (months)
S = 0.0131986

R-Sq = 86.0%

Coef
0.794989
0.0008802

SE Coef
0.008250
0.0001451

T
96.37
6.07

P
0.000
0.001

R-Sq(adj) = 83.6%

Regression Analysis: Bone density femoral neck versus Time from baseline
The regression equation is
Bone density femoral neck = 0.642 + 0.000313 Time from baseline
(months)
Predictor
Constant
Time from baseline (months)
S = 0.0148642

R-Sq = 38.0%

Coef
0.641564
0.0003133

SE Coef
0.009291
0.0001634

R-Sq(adj) = 27.6%

T
69.06
1.92

P
0.000
0.104

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BIO360H5F

Example 2: Breast cancer survival rates

The following data are provided by the US National Cancer Institute based on 17 cancer
registries. Data are available for stage of disease at diagnosis (four stages: localized,
regional, distant, unstaged) for women with breast cancer by age at diagnosis (two age
classes: <50 years, and 50+ years) and race (two categories: Caucasian and AfricanAmerican).
Table 1 shows for each group defined by age and race, the percent of cases for each
stage of disease at diagnosis. I.e., in each column the percent values add to 100. The
number of subjects n in each group is indicated in the row labeled Stage.
Table 2 shows the 5-year survival rates by stage of disease, age at diagnosis, and race.
I.e., each cell shows the percent of subjects in a group (defined by age, race, and stage
of disease at diagnosis) that continued to live for at least 5 years after diagnosis.
The following page shows Minitab output for a chi-square test of independence of the
data in Table 1. Note that all patients with unstaged cancer at diagnosis were excluded
from the two-way table before performing the chi-square test!

Table 1
Topic 2: Describing distributions

Table 2

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BIO360H5F

Tabulated statistics: Stage, Group

Cell Contents:

Count
Expected count
Standardized residual

AfricanAmer.<50

AfricanAmer.50+

Caucasian
<50

Caucasian
50+

All

Localized

3685
4898
-17.34

8639
9781
-11.55

28652
32169
-19.61

111411
105539
18.08

152387
152387
*

Regional

3685
2624
20.72

5705
5239
6.43

21755
17232
34.46

50483
56533
-25.45

81628
81628
*

Distant

548
396
7.65

1467
790
24.08

1592
2599
-19.75

8704
8526
1.93

12311
12311
*

All

7918
7918
*

15811
15811
*

51999
51999
*

170598
170598
*

246326
246326
*

Pearson Chi-Square = 4482.586, DF = 6, P-Value = 0.000

Cramer's V-square 0.0090989

Example 3: Wing length

The table below shows mean (Mean) and standard deviation (sd) of wing length (in cm)
for random samples from four source populations of stonechat birds:
1. An African group that is resident year-round in equatorial Africa.
2. A European group from Austria that migrates a comparatively short distance to
Northern Africa.
3. An Irish group that winters along the coast of Britain and Ireland.
4. A Siberian group from Kazakhstan that migrates a long distance to India, China,
and Northern Africa.
Assume that, within each group of birds of the same gender from the same region, wing
length is normally distributed and that the underlying standard deviation is the same.
Region
African
European
Irish
Siberian
Overall

Mean
72.73
66.26
68.45
69.11
68.52

Male
sd
1.42
1.33
1.15
1.22

N
22
43
30
12
107

Mean
70.64
64.25
66.52
66.49
66.45

Female
sd
1.27
1.93
1.57
0.62

N
23
45
31
7
106

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BIO360H5F

Example 4: Hypertension Treatment

Some common strategies for treating patients with high blood pressure by nonpharmacologic method include (1) weight reduction and (2) trying to get the patient to
relax more by meditational techniques. Suppose these strategies are evaluated by
randomizing patients with high blood pressure to four groups who receive the following
types of therapy:

Group 1:
Group 2:
Group 3:
Group 4:

Patients receive counseling for both weight reduction and meditation.

Patients receive counseling for weight reduction but not for meditation.
Patients receive counseling for meditation but not for weight reduction.
Patients receive no counseling at all.

Suppose 20 patients are assigned at random to each of the four groups, and the change in
diastolic blood pressure (DBP) is noted in these patients after a 1-month period. The
results are given in the table below. Change in DBP refers to the observed difference in
DBP between baseline and follow-up measurements for each patient, Mean change in
DBP refers to the mean of change in DBP among the 20 patients in each group and sd
change denotes the standard deviation of change in DBP in each group.
The next page shows output from Minitab for this example.
Group
1
2
3
4

Counseling treatment
Weight loss and meditation
Weight loss
Meditation
No counseling

Mean change in DBP

8.6
5.3
4.9
1.1

sd change
6.2
5.4
7.0
6.5

N
20
20
20
20

page 18 of 18

BIO360H5F

One-way ANOVA: Group1, Group2, Group3, Group4

Source
Factor
Error
Total

DF
3
76
79

S = 6.302

Level
Group1
Group2
Group3
Group4

N
20
20
20
20

SS
565.4
3018.1
3583.5

MS
188.5
39.7

R-Sq = 15.78%

Mean
8.600
5.300
4.900
1.100

StDev
6.200
5.400
7.000
6.500

F
4.75

P
0.004

R-Sq(adj) = 12.45%

Individual 95% CIs For Mean Based on

Pooled StDev
-----+---------+---------+---------+---(-------*-------)
(-------*-------)
(-------*-------)
(-------*-------)
-----+---------+---------+---------+---0.0
3.5
7.0
10.5

Pooled StDev = 6.302

Tukey 95% Simultaneous Confidence Intervals

All Pairwise Comparisons
Individual confidence level = 98.97%

Group1 subtracted from:

Group2
Group3
Group4

Lower
-8.542
-8.942
-12.742

Center
-3.300
-3.700
-7.500

Upper
1.942
1.542
-2.258

-+---------+---------+---------+-------(--------*-------)
(--------*--------)
(--------*-------)
-+---------+---------+---------+--------12.0
-6.0
0.0
6.0

Group2 subtracted from:

Group3
Group4

Lower
-5.642
-9.442

Center
-0.400
-4.200

Upper
4.842
1.042

-+---------+---------+---------+-------(-------*--------)
(--------*--------)
-+---------+---------+---------+--------12.0
-6.0
0.0
6.0

Upper
1.442

-+---------+---------+---------+-------(--------*-------)
-+---------+---------+---------+--------12.0
-6.0
0.0
6.0

Group3 subtracted from:

Group4

Lower
-9.042

Center
-3.800