MonthsActual Sales

1
779
2
802
3
818
4
888
5
898
6
902
7
916
8
708
9
695
10
708
11
716
12
784
13
845
14
739
15
871
16
927
17
1133
18
1124
19
1056
20
889
21
857
22
772
23
751
24
820
25
857
26
881
27
937
28
1159
29
1072
30
1246
31
1198
32
922
33
798
34
879
35
945
36
990
37
917
38
956
39
1001
40
1142
41
1276
42
1356
43
1288
44
1082

Actu
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0

45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60

877
1009
1100
998
887
892
997
1118
1197
1256
1202
1170
982
1297
1163
1053

Actual Sales

Actual Sales

Time
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

Sales
3832
5032
3947
3291
4007
5903
4274
3692
4826
6492
4765
4972
5411
7678
5774
6007
6290
8332
6107
6729

Sales
9000
8000
7000
6000

5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920

14151617181920

Sales

MonthsActual SalesF (t)

E (t)
Abs (E(t)) E (t)^2
Abs (E(t))/A (t)
1
779
MSE
2
802
MAD
3
818
MAPE
4
888
799.6667 88.33333 88.33333 7802.778 0.1104626928
5
898
836
62
62
3844 0.0741626794
6
902
868
34
34
1156 0.0391705069
7
916
896
20
20
400 0.0223214286
8
708
905.3333 -197.3333 197.3333 38940.44 0.2179675994
9
695
842
-147
147
21609
0.174584323
10
708
773
-65
65
4225
0.084087969
11
716
703.6667 12.33333 12.33333 152.1111 0.0175272383
12
784
706.3333 77.66667 77.66667 6032.111 0.1099575271
13
845
736
109
109
11881 0.1480978261
14
739
781.6667 -42.66667 42.66667 1820.444 0.0545842217
15
871
789.3333 81.66667 81.66667 6669.444 0.1034628378
16
927
818.3333 108.6667 108.6667 11808.44
0.132790224
17
1133
845.6667 287.3333 287.3333 82560.44 0.3397713835
18
1124
977
147
147
21609 0.1504605937
19
1056
1061.333 -5.333333 5.333333 28.44444 0.0050251256
20
889
1104.333 -215.3333 215.3333 46368.44 0.1949894356
21
857
1023
-166
166
27556 0.1622678397
22
772
934
-162
162
26244 0.1734475375
23
751
839.3333 -88.33333 88.33333 7802.778 0.1052422558
24
820
793.3333 26.66667 26.66667 711.1111 0.0336134454
25
857
781
76
76
5776 0.0973111396
26
881
809.3333 71.66667 71.66667 5136.111 0.0885502471
27
937
852.6667 84.33333 84.33333 7112.111 0.0989053948
28
1159
891.6667 267.3333 267.3333 71467.11 0.2998130841
29
1072
992.3333 79.66667 79.66667 6346.778 0.0802821633
30
1246
1056
190
190
36100 0.1799242424
31
1198
1159
39
39
1521
0.033649698
32
922
1172
-250
250
62500 0.2133105802
33
798
1122
-324
324 104976 0.2887700535
34
879
972.6667 -93.66667 93.66667 8773.444 0.0962988348
35
945
866.3333 78.66667 78.66667 6188.444 0.0908041554
36
990
874
116
116
13456 0.1327231121
37
917
938
-21
21
441 0.0223880597
38
956
950.6667 5.333333 5.333333 28.44444 0.0056100982
39
1001
954.3333 46.66667 46.66667 2177.778 0.0488997555
40
1142
958
184
184
33856 0.1920668058
41
1276
1033
243
243
59049 0.2352371733
42
1356
1139.667 216.3333 216.3333 46800.11 0.1898215853
43
1288
1258
30
30
900 0.0238473768
44
1082
1306.667 -224.6667 224.6667 50475.11 0.1719387755

21655.22
118.8246
12.06%

45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60

877
1009
1100
998
887
892
997
1118
1197
1256
1202
1170
982
1297
1163
1053

1242
1082.333
989.3333
995.3333
1035.667
995
925.6667
925.3333
1002.333
1104
1190.333
1218.333
1209.333
1118
1149.667
1147.333

-365
-73.33333
110.6667
2.666667
-148.6667
-103
71.33333
192.6667
194.6667
152
11.66667
-48.33333
-227.3333
179
13.33333
-94.33333

365
73.33333
110.6667
2.666667
148.6667
103
71.33333
192.6667
194.6667
152
11.66667
48.33333
227.3333
179
13.33333
94.33333

133225
5377.778
12247.11
7.111111
22101.78
10609
5088.444
37120.44
37895.11
23104
136.1111
2336.111
51680.44
32041
177.7778
8898.778

0.2938808374
0.0677548506
0.1118598383
0.0026791695
0.1435468297
0.1035175879
0.0770615772
0.2082132565
0.1942135018
0.1376811594
0.0098011761
0.0396716826
0.1879823594
0.1601073345
0.0115975645
0.0822196397

Alpha

MonthsActual SalesF (t)

1
779
2
802
3
818
4
888
5
898
6
902
7
916
8
708
9
695
10
708
11
716
12
784
13
845
14
739
15
871
16
927
17
1133
18
1124
19
1056
20
889
21
857
22
772
23
751
24
820
25
857
26
881
27
937
28
1159
29
1072
30
1246
31
1198
32
922
33
798
34
879
35
945
36
990
37
917
38
956
39
1001
40
1142
41
1276
42
1356

E (t)
779
779
802
818
888
898
902
916
708
695
708
716
784
845
739
871
927
1133
1124
1056
889
857
772
751
820
857
881
937
1159
1072
1246
1198
922
798
879
945
990
917
956
1001
1142
1276

Abs (E(t)) E (t)^2

Abs (E(t))/A (t)
0
0
0
0 MSE
23
23
529 0.0295250321 MAD
16
16
256 0.0199501247 MAPE
70
70
4900 0.0855745721
10
10
100 0.0112612613
4
4
16 0.004454343
14
14
196 0.0155210643
-208
208
43264 0.2270742358
-13
13
169 0.0183615819
13
13
169 0.018705036
8
8
64
0.011299435
68
68
4624 0.094972067
61
61
3721 0.0778061224
-106
106
11236 0.125443787
132
132
17424 0.1786197564
56
56
3136 0.064293915
206
206
42436 0.2222222222
-9
9
81 0.0079435128
-68
68
4624 0.0604982206
-167
167
27889 0.1581439394
-32
32
1024 0.0359955006
-85
85
7225 0.0991831972
-21
21
441 0.0272020725
69
69
4761 0.0918774967
37
37
1369 0.0451219512
24
24
576 0.0280046674
56
56
3136 0.0635641317
222
222
49284 0.2369263607
-87
87
7569
0.075064711
174
174
30276 0.1623134328
-48
48
2304 0.0385232745
-276
276
76176 0.2303839733
-124
124
15376 0.1344902386
81
81
6561 0.1015037594
66
66
4356 0.0750853242
45
45
2025 0.0476190476
-73
73
5329 0.0737373737
39
39
1521 0.0425299891
45
45
2025 0.0470711297
141
141
19881 0.1408591409
134
134
17956 0.1173380035
80
80
6400 0.0626959248

12864.97
88.8
8.94%

43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60

1288
1082
877
1009
1100
998
887
892
997
1118
1197
1256
1202
1170
982
1297
1163
1053

1356
1288
1082
877
1009
1100
998
887
892
997
1118
1197
1256
1202
1170
982
1297
1163

-68
-206
-205
132
91
-102
-111
5
105
121
79
59
-54
-32
-188
315
-134
-110

68
206
205
132
91
102
111
5
105
121
79
59
54
32
188
315
134
110

4624
42436
42025
17424
8281
10404
12321
25
11025
14641
6241
3481
2916
1024
35344
99225
17956
12100

0.0501474926
0.1599378882
0.1894639556
0.1505131129
0.0901883053
0.0927272727
0.1112224449
0.0056369786
0.1177130045
0.1213640923
0.0706618962
0.0492898914
0.0429936306
0.0266222962
0.1606837607
0.3207739308
0.1033153431
0.0945829751

Months
Actual Sales
1
779
0.972332
2
802
1.00104
3
818
1.021011
4
888
1.108384
5
898
1.120865
6
902
1.125858
7
916
1.143333
8
708
0.883711
9
695
0.867485
10
708
0.883711
11
716
0.893697
12
784
0.978573
13
845
0.940282
14
739
0.822329
15
871
0.969214
16
927
1.031528
17
1133 1.260757
18
1124 1.250742
19
1056 1.175074
20
889
0.989243
21
857
0.953635
22
772
0.85905
23
751
0.835682
24
820
0.912463
25
857
0.865365
26
881
0.889599
27
937
0.946146
28
1159 1.170313
29
1072 1.082464
30
1246 1.258162
31
1198 1.209694
32
922
0.931
33
798
0.805789
34
879
0.88758
35
945
0.954224
36
990
0.999663
37
917
0.846331
38
956
0.882326
39
1001 0.923858
40
1142 1.053992
41
1276 1.177665
42
1356
1.2515

0.885964
0.881069
0.953126
1.075901
1.145756
1.205374
1.161682
0.973016
0.865621
0.947885
0.950997
0.953609
0.885964
0.881069
0.953126
1.075901
1.145756
1.205374
1.161682
0.973016
0.865621
0.947885
0.950997
0.953609
0.885964
0.881069
0.953126
1.075901
1.145756
1.205374
1.161682
0.973016
0.865621
0.947885
0.950997
0.953609
0.885964
0.881069
0.953126
1.075901
1.145756
1.205374

879.2683
910.2579
858.2283
825.355
783.762
748.3154
788.5118
727.6346
802.8919
746.9261
752.8942
822.1396
953.7634
838.7539
913.8347
861.6037
988.8668
932.4906
909.0267
913.6542
990.0408
814.4448
789.6977
859.8909
967.308
999.9217
983.0805
1077.237
935.6268
1033.704
1031.263
947.5693
921.8816
927.3277
993.6941
1038.161
1035.031
1085.046
1050.228
1061.436
1113.675
1124.962

43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60

1288
1082
877
1009
1100
998
887
892
997
1118
1197
1256
1202
1170
982
1297
1163
1053

1.18874
0.998616
0.809414
0.931241
1.015228
0.921089
0.805509
0.81005
0.905403
1.015287
1.087029
1.140608
1.09157
1.062509
0.891781
1.177842
1.056153
0.956259

1.161682
0.973016
0.865621
0.947885
0.950997
0.953609
0.885964
0.881069
0.953126
1.075901
1.145756
1.205374
1.161682
0.973016
0.865621
0.947885
0.950997
0.953609

1108.737
1112.007
1013.146
1064.475
1156.681
1046.55
1001.169
1012.407
1046.031
1039.129
1044.725
1042
1034.707
1202.447
1134.446
1368.31
1222.927
1104.226

Alpha

0.56154

Months
Actual Sales
F (t)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41

879.268
910.258
858.228
825.355
783.762
748.315
788.512
727.635
802.892
746.926
752.894
822.14
953.763
838.754
913.835
861.604
988.867
932.491
909.027
913.654
990.041
814.445
789.698
859.891
967.308
999.922
983.081
1077.24
935.627
1033.7
1031.26
947.569
921.882
927.328
993.694
1038.16
1035
1085
1050.23
1061.44
1113.68

879.2683
879.2683
896.6702
875.0835
847.1589
811.559
776.0452
783.0457
751.9301
780.5472
761.6676
756.741
793.4649
883.479
858.364
889.5131
873.8408
938.4326
935.0959
920.457
916.6369
957.8562
877.3249
828.1187
845.9601
914.1018
962.2932
973.9661
1031.957
977.8637
1009.22
1021.598
980.028
947.3765
936.1183
968.4495
1007.595
1023.001
1057.842
1053.566
1057.986

E (t)
0
30.98965
-38.44197
-49.7285
-63.39692
-63.2436
12.46662
-55.41109
50.96175
-33.6211
-8.773424
65.39862
160.2985
-44.72512
55.47068
-27.90937
115.0259
-5.941952
-26.06921
-6.802818
73.40383
-143.4113
-87.62725
31.77222
121.3479
85.81993
20.78735
103.2709
-96.33007
55.84033
22.04298
-74.02894
-58.14644
-20.04872
57.57582
69.7115
27.43555
62.04417
-7.613787
7.869971
55.68959

Abs (E(t)) E (t)^2

0
30.98965
38.44197
49.7285
63.39692
63.2436
12.46662
55.41109
50.96175
33.6211
8.773424
65.39862
160.2985
44.72512
55.47068
27.90937
115.0259
5.941952
26.06921
6.802818
73.40383
143.4113
87.62725
31.77222
121.3479
85.81993
20.78735
103.2709
96.33007
55.84033
22.04298
74.02894
58.14644
20.04872
57.57582
69.7115
27.43555
62.04417
7.613787
7.869971
55.68959

0
960.3587
1477.785
2472.923
4019.17
3999.753
155.4167
3070.389
2597.1
1130.378
76.97296
4276.979
25695.6
2000.337
3076.997
778.9329
13230.97
35.30679
679.6036
46.27833
5388.123
20566.8
7678.535
1009.474
14725.32
7365.06
432.1139
10664.87
9279.482
3118.143
485.8929
5480.284
3381.009
401.9511
3314.976
4859.693
752.7095
3849.479
57.96976
61.93645
3101.331

Abs (E(t))/A (t)

0 MSE
0.035245 MAD
0.042872 MAPE
0.056827
0.074835
0.077929
0.016064
0.070764
0.067775
0.043074
0.011519
0.086421
0.202023
0.050624
0.064624
0.031376
0.131633
0.006332
0.027879
0.007391
0.08008
0.149721
0.09988
0.038367
0.143444
0.093884
0.021602
0.106031
0.093347
0.057104
0.021842
0.072464
0.059331
0.021162
0.061505
0.071983
0.027229
0.060649
0.007197
0.00747
0.052637

5175.662 0.885964
53.81726 0.881069
5.64% 0.953126
1.075901
1.145756
1.205374
1.161682
0.973016
0.865621
0.947885
0.950997
0.953609
0.885964
0.881069
0.953126
1.075901
1.145756
1.205374
1.161682
0.973016
0.865621
0.947885
0.950997
0.953609
0.885964
0.881069
0.953126
1.075901
1.145756
1.205374
1.161682
0.973016
0.865621
0.947885
0.950997
0.953609
0.885964
0.881069
0.953126
1.075901
1.145756

42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60

1125
1108.74
1112
1013.15
1064.48
1156.68
1046.55
1001.17
1012.41
1046
1039.13
1044.73
1042
1034.71
1202.45
1134.45
1368.31
1222.93
1104.23

1089.258
1109.307
1108.987
1110.683
1055.912
1060.72
1114.606
1076.39
1034.151
1021.94
1035.468
1037.524
1041.568
1041.811
1037.821
1130.265
1132.613
1264.966
1241.36

35.7044
-0.569926
3.019544
-97.53703
8.563585
95.96058
-68.05603
-75.22054
-21.74399
24.09081
3.66098
7.2009
0.43238
-7.104066
164.6256
4.180463
235.6967
-42.03879
-137.1338

35.7044
0.569926
3.019544
97.53703
8.563585
95.96058
68.05603
75.22054
21.74399
24.09081
3.66098
7.2009
0.43238
7.104066
164.6256
4.180463
235.6967
42.03879
137.1338

1274.804
0.324816
9.117646
9513.471
73.33498
9208.433
4631.623
5658.13
472.801
580.3673
13.40277
51.85296
0.186952
50.46776
27101.6
17.47627
55552.95
1767.26
18805.69

0.032779
0.000514
0.002723
0.087817
0.00811
0.090467
0.061058
0.069882
0.021026
0.023574
0.003536
0.00694
0.000415
0.006819
0.158626
0.003699
0.2081
0.033233
0.110471

1.205374
1.161682
0.973016
0.865621
0.947885
0.950997
0.953609
0.885964
0.881069
0.953126
1.075901
1.145756
1.205374
1.161682
0.973016
0.865621
0.947885
0.950997
0.953609

779
774.696
854.6401
941.5029
970.6374
978.2322
901.5177
761.9159
650.8864
739.8689
724.3435
721.6353
702.9813
778.4059
818.1294
957.0277
1001.208
1131.162
1086.284
895.6192
793.4601
907.9374
834.3332
789.7017
749.4901
805.3867
917.187
1047.891
1182.371
1178.692
1172.393
994.0313
848.3328
898.0039
890.2456
923.5225
892.6931
901.3348
1008.257
1133.533
1212.193

1312.963
1288.662
1079.062
961.4301
1000.883
1008.742
1062.899
953.6427
911.158
974.0384
1114.061
1188.75
1255.479
1210.253
1009.817
978.3813
1073.587
1202.979
1183.772

A (t)

888
898
902
916
708
695
708
716
784
845
739
871
927
1133
1124
1056
889
857
772
751
820
857
881
937
1159
1072
1246
1198
922
798
879
945
990
917
956
1001
1142
1276
1356
1288
1082
877

MA
SES
799.6667
836
868
896
905.3333
842
773
703.6667
706.3333
736
781.6667
789.3333
818.3333
845.6667
977
1061.333
1104.333
1023
934
839.3333
793.3333
781
809.3333
852.6667
891.6667
992.3333
1056
1159
1172
1122
972.6667
866.3333
874
938
950.6667
954.3333
958
1033
1139.667
1258
1306.667
1242

SES_Seasonality
818 941.5029
1600
888 970.6374
898 978.2322
902 901.5177
1400
916 761.9159
708 650.8864
1200
695 739.8689
708 724.3435
716 721.6353
1000
784 702.9813
845 778.4059
800
739 818.1294
871 957.0277
927 1001.208
600
1133 1131.162
1124 1086.284
1056 895.6192
400
889 793.4601
857 907.9374
200
772 834.3332
751 789.7017
820 749.4901
0
857 805.3867
881 917.187
937 1047.891
1159 1182.371
1072 1178.692
1246 1172.393
1198 994.0313
922 848.3328
798 898.0039
879 890.2456
945 923.5225
990 892.6931
917 901.3348
956 1008.257
1001 1133.533
1142 1212.193
1276 1312.963
1356 1288.662
1288 1079.062
1082 961.4301

1600
1400
1600
1200
1400
1000
1200
800
1000

1600

1009
1100
998
887
892
997
1118
1197
1256
1202
1170
982
1297
1163
1053

1082.333
989.3333
995.3333
1035.667
995
925.6667
925.3333
1002.333
1104
1190.333
1218.333
1209.333
1118
1149.667
1147.333

877
1009
1100
998
887
892
997
1118
1197
1256
1202
1170
982
1297
1163

1000.883
1008.742
1062.899
953.6427
911.158
974.0384
1114.061
1188.75
1255.479
1210.253
1009.817
978.3813
1073.587
1202.979
1183.772

1400
1600
1200
1400
1000
1200
800
1000
600
800
400
600
200
400
0
200
0

A (t)
MA
SES
SES_Seasonality

A (t)

A (t)
MA
A (t)
SES