SSI 3013 INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY IN

SCIENCE

ASSIGNMENT 3: SIMULATION AND MODELLING (STELLA)

LECTURER : SIR AZMI IBRAHIM
GROUP : C

GROUP MEMBERS:
NAME
MATRICS NUMBER
SHARIFAH AWANIS BT SYED MOHD D20141067053
ASWAD
MAUREEN SANTIH ANAK AMBANG
HEIDI AMELDA ANAK LAGAT

D20141067070
D20141067086

CONTENT
1.0 INTRODUCTION
2. ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES IN SIMULATION
3. STEPS IN SIMULATION
4. RESULTS
5. CONCLUSION
6. REFERENCES

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1.0 INTRODUCTION
STELLA is a short form of Systems Thinking, Experimental Learning Laboratory
with Animation. STELLA is a visual programming language for system dynamics modeling.
Stella is introduced by Barry Richmond in 1985. This program allows users to run models
created as graphical representations of a system using four fundamental building blocks.
STELLA has been used in academic as a teaching tool and has been utilized in a variety of
research and business applications.
A food chain is the sequence of who eats whom in a biological community (an
ecosystem) to obtain nutrition. A food chain starts with the primary energy source, usually the
sun. The next link in the chain is an organism that make its own food from the primary
energy source -- an example is photosynthetic plants that make their own food from sunlight
(using a process called photosynthesis). These are called autotrophs or primary
producers.Next come organisms that eat the autotrophs; these organisms are called herbivores
or primary consumers -- an example is a rabbit that eats grass.
The next link in the chain is animals that eat herbivores - these are called secondary
consumers -- an example is a snake that eat rabbits.In turn, these animals are eaten by larger
predators -- an example is an owl that eats snakes.
The arrows in a food chain show the flow of energy, from the sun to a top predator. As
the energy flows from organism to organism, energy is lost at each step. A network of many
food chains is called a food web.In this experiment, we want to investigate the food chain
between palm oil,mouse and owl.The palm oil plant act as a primary producers while mouse
acts as a primary consumer. The owl which eat the mouse act as secondary consumer. We
using the STELLA to conduct this experiment.

2.0 ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES IN SIMULATION

Advantages in Using Simulation.
1. Provide users with practical feedback.
One of the primary advantages of simulators is that they are able to provide users with
practical feedback when designing real world systems. This also allows the designer to
determine the correctness and efficiency of a design before the system is constructed. Other
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than that, the user may explore the merits of alternative designs without actually physically
building the systems. By investigating the effects of specific design decisions during the
design phase rather than the construction phase, the overall cost of building the system
diminishes significantly
2. Permit system designers to study a problem at several different levels of abstraction
Secondly, benefit of simulators is that they permit system designers to study a problem at
several different levels of abstraction. By approaching a system at a higher level of
abstraction, the designer is better able to understand the behaviours and interactions of all the
high level components within the system and is therefore better equipped to counteract the
complexity of the overall system. This complexity may simply overwhelm the designer if the
problem had been approached from a lower level. As the designer better understands the
operation of the higher level components through the use of the simulator, the lower level
components may then be designed and subsequently simulated for verification and
performance evaluation. A simulator which permits the construction, interconnection and
subsequent simulation of these higher level entities is much more useful than a simulator
which only lets the designer build and connect simple logic gates. Working at a higher level
abstraction also facilitates rapid prototyping in which preliminary systems are designed
quickly for the purpose of studying the feasibility and practicality of the high-level design.
3. Effective in teaching concepts to students.
Another benefit of simulators can be used as an effective means for teaching concepts to
students. Simulations help students understand probability and sampling theory. Classes in
the physical sciences reinforce and build upon the concepts and theories taught in lecture with
opportunities to experiment in a laboratory setting, courses in the social sciences often do not
include similar, hands-on learning opportunities. Instructional simulations have proven their
worth many times over in the statistics based fields. The ability to match simulation results
with an analytically derived conclusion is especially valuable in beginning classes, where
students often struggle with sampling theory. This is particularly true of simulators that make
intelligent use of computer graphics and animation. Such simulators dynamically show the

behaviour and relationship of all the simulated system's components, thereby providing the
user with a meaningful understanding of the system's nature.
4. Allow experiment exploration
Since the students nowadays are very familiar with the computers and games, using
simulation enhance their interest and motivation to learn. They need the environment of
learning that requires them to explore which suit their curious high-tech mind. Simulations
allow students to interact with the simulations. Most simulations are designed with a flexible
architecture that allows their variables to be altered. Therefore, students can change any
parameter in the simulation and observe how the simulated outcomes changes. By directly
modifying a model, students can experiment with the behaviour of the models in a number of
different scenarios. By doing a simulation too, students can relate it with the real life.
5. Allow student to analyze data and predict future outcome
Simple analysis to predict something can be done by anyone. However, as the complexity of
the analysis increases, so does the need to employ computer-based tools. One of the tools is
simulation. With all the necessary study data, simulation can be useful in predicting the future
outcome. In real life no one can predict the future accurately, but we still can study the
pattern for the highest probability that it will occur. By using simulation, students can study
the trend of the outcome whenever they manipulate any variable. The outcome for example in
the form of graphic usually observed over time. When the simulation is run several times,
students can see the trend of the change in the graph. Analyzing and predicting data using
simulation can enhance students thinking skills and problem solving skill.

Disadvantages of Simulation
Simulation is not a perfect cure to all the works. It has limitation and disadvantages.
1. Does not have validation
Despite the advantages of simulation has presented, simulators, like most tools, they do have
their drawbacks. To get the simulations to match real-world outcomes, users need to change

the theoretical rules guiding the simulation or test different assumptions until they do.
Simulations have the benefit of forecasting multiple metrics 30 simultaneously, but this can
make it challenging to get all of the assumptions synchronized. One change may improve the
forecast for one metric, but degrade the fit for another. Fortunately, expanding computing
power and improving algorithms continue to reduce the time and effort to overcome the
process barrier of calibrating and validating simulations
2. Expensive
In certain cases simulation models can be very expensive. It very expensive to build
simulation model because it requires computer to run the experiment. Most large scale
simulation languages and their environment represent a major investment. If animation si
going to be used, it will cost must include a graphic monitor.
3. Not every teacher is familiar with simulation
To use simulations in class could be a burden to them as they need long time to explore the
simulation. When the teachers do not really know how to use a simulation, they tend to spend
more time trying to explore the simulation. This could later lead to an environment of unsure
teacher and confused students. Therefore, without expertise in using simulation, it can be
rather wasting time than saving time as it should be.

4. Cause students to lack in manual science process skill which is also important in the
real life.
If learning process depends too much on simulations, students will not be able to handle
manual process experiment successfully. In science experiment, the way of measuring
substance, how to handle the apparatus, how to use microscope, correct way of taking
reading; all of these are essential as a basic scientific skills. Lacking on these skills can cause
difficulty to students when they need to do real scientific experiment or research later in their
real life. Simulation can give result, analyze data, and mimics the real world process; but
simulation cannot develop students emotional and intuitive awareness of the importance of
what they have learned. Since simulation can simplify many of the students work, students
tend not to appreciate the knowledge and the value they gain.

3.0 STEPS IN SIMULATION STUDY

1. Problem Definition
The initial step involves defining the goals of the study and determing what needs to be
solved. The problem is further defined through objective observations of the process to be
studied. Care should be taken to determine if simulation is the appropriate tool for the
problem under investigation.
2. Project Planning
The tasks for completing the project are broken down into work packages with a responsible
party assigned to each package. Milestones are indicated for tracking progress. This schedule
is necessary to determine if sufficient time and resources are available for completion.
3. System Definition
This step involves identifying the system components to be modeled and the preformance
measures to be analyzed. Often the system is very complex, thus defining the system requires
an experienced simulator who can find the appropriate level of detail and flexibility.
4. Model Formulation

Understanding how the actual system behaves and determining the basic requirements of the
model are necessary in developing the right model. Creating a flow chart of how the system
operates facilitates the understanding of what variables are involved and how these variables
interact.
5. Input Data Collection & Analysis
After formulating the model, the type of data to collect is determined. New data is collected
and/or existing data is gathered. Data is fitted to theoretical distributions. For example, the
arrival rate of a specific part to the manufacturing plant may follow a normal distribution
curve.

6. Model Translation
The model is translated into programming language. Choices range from general purpose
languages such as fortran or simulation programs such as Arena.
7. Verification & Validation
Verification is the process of ensuring that the model behaves as intended, usually by
debugging or through animation. Verification is necessary but not sufficient for validation,
that is a model may be verified but not valid. Validation ensures that no significant difference
exists between the model and the real system and that the model reflects reality. Validation
can be achieved through statistical analysis. Additionally, face validity may be obtained by
having the model reviewed and supported by an expert.

8. Experimentation & Analysis

Experimentation involves developing the alternative model(s), executing the simulation runs,
and statistically comparing the alternative(s) system performance with that of the real system.
9. Documentation & Implementation
Documentation consists of the written report and/or presentation. The results and implications
of the study are discussed. The best course of action is identified, recommended and justified.

4.0 Results

Graph 1.0

Table 1.1
As for graph 1.0, the value of mice and owl is decrease at the beginning of the simulation. We
set up the value of owl for is 5 while the value for mice is 5000. The ratio between the owl
and mice is 1 to 1000 (1: 1000). This show that one owl is equal to 1000 mice in this table 1.0
simulation.
At the beginning of simulation, the amount of owl is five but the amount drop
drastically to 0 because of insufficient of mice as the prey of the owl. When the amount of
mice decrease as mice is been eaten by the owl, the amount of palm fruit production increase
because there is no mice that will eat the palm fruit. Within time, when the amount of owl
decrease to 0, the amount of mice increase steadily. After 12 years, the amount of palm fruit
production still increase within time because the little amount of mice. However, 19 years of

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the increasing of number of mice, the amount of palm fruit begins to drop as palm fruit is
been eaten by the mice. The number of mice continue to increase for the time being.
For table 1.1, the value of damage crops is increase per years. This is because of the
increasing number of mice and 0 number of owl in the area of palm fruit. However, the
amount of palm fruit that harvested are also increasing.

Graph 2.0

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Table 2.1

For the graph 2.0, the value of mice and owl is set up at high value. So, the amount set up for
the mice is 36000 while the amount of owl is 18. The ratio between the owl and mice is 1 to
2000 (1:2000). This means that one owl is equal to 2000 mice.
At the beginning of simulation, the amount of owl is 18 but the amount drop
drastically to 0 because of insufficient of mice as the prey of the owl. When the amount of
mice decrease as mice is been eaten by the owl, the amount of palm fruit production increase
because there is no mice that will eat the palm fruit. After 12 years, the amount of mice
increase steadily while the amount of palm fruit production still increase within time because
the little amount of mice. After 19 years of the increasing of number of mice, the amount of
palm fruit is at the peak for maximum value. This is because there is only few amount of
mice at that time. However, after 20 to 25 years, the amount of palm fruit drop drastically
because of the increasing of mice in that area. The amount of mice is continue to reproduce
until the peak at the 25 years.

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For table 2.1, for year 0 to year 2, the amount of damage crops continue to drop.This is
because of the increasing number of mice. However, after 3 years, the amount of mice in that
particular area start to increase. This makes that there are increasing of damage crops after 10
years while mice is continue to reproduce.

Graph 3.0

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Table 3.1
For the graph 3.0, the value of mice in set up and at high value while owl is set up in low
value. So, the amount set up for the mice is 40 000 while the amount of owl is 10. The ratio
between the owl and mice is 1 to 4 000 (1:4 000). This means that one owl is equal to 4 000
mice.
At the beginning of simulation, the amount palm fruit is at the critical value. So, the
amount of mice that are abundant at the beginning of this simulation drop drastically because
of starvetion and being eaten by the predator which is the owl. The amount of owl is 10 at
first but the amount drop drastically to a critical amount because of insufficient of mice as the
prey of the owl. After 12 years, the amount of mice increase at the peak level while the
amount of palm fruit production and owl still increase within time. After 13 years, the amount
of mice continue to drop as the number of owl is increase. This is because, owl will

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hunt mice as their food. At this time, amount of crop is increase steadily within time.
However, after 20 to 25 years, the amount of owl drop drastically because of the rapid
decrease of mice in that area. The amount of palm fruit is continue to produce until the peak
at the 25 years.
For table 2.1, for year 0 to year 4, the amount of damage crops continue to drop.This is
because of the increasing number of mice. However, after 5 years to 10 years, the amount of
mice in that particular area is continue to increase. This makes that there are increasing of
damage crops after 10 years while mice is continue to reproduce.
Palm fruit mice owl

5.1 Conclusion
From the simulation of STELLA, we found the relationship between palm oil,mouse
and owl in the food chain. When the number of owl increase,the number of mouse decrease
and the number of palm oil increase. When the number of owl decrease,the number of mouse
increase and the number of pal oil palm oil decrease. STELLA is the most powerful tool that
help students to create and explore their own models. It also allow student to analyze
data,predict future outcome and allow experiment exploration.

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6.0 References:
Lateef, F. (2010). Simulation-based learning: Just like the real thing. Journal of Emergencies
, Trauma and Shock, 3(4), 348352. Retrieved 15 Nov. 2016 from
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2966567/
AcqNotes. 2016. Modeling & Simulation. Retrieved 13 Nov. 2016 from
http://www.acqnotes.com/acqnote/tasks/simulation-modeling-steps
The American Phytopathological Society. 2016. Preliminary Examples of Simulation
Models. Retrieved 15 Nov. 2016 from
http://www.apsnet.org/edcenter/advanced/topics/BotanicalEpidemiology/Pages/Simul
ationModelsExamples.aspx

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