CM Techvista 22 11 2011

Cross Asset
Technical Vista
November 22, 2011
International Markets Analysis

FINANCIAL PRODUCTS SALES DIVISION
Important Disclaimer in page 2
Disclaimer
The information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we make
no representation or warranty, express or implied, with respect to the fairness, correctness, accuracy or completeness of
such information. In addition we have no obligation to update, modify or amend this communication or to otherwise notify a
recipient in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein,
changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. We are not acting and do not purport to act in any way as an advisor or in a
fiduciary capacity. We therefore strongly suggest that recipients seek their own independent advice in relation to any
investment, financial, legal, tax, accounting or regulatory issues discussed herein. Analyses and opinions contained herein
may be based on assumptions that if altered can change the analyses or opinions expressed. Nothing contained herein
shall constitute any representation or warranty as to future performance of any financial instrument, credit, currency rate or
other market or economic measure.
Furthermore, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This communication is provided for
information purposes only. It is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor to enter into any
agreement or contract with Alpha bank or any affiliates.
In addition, because this communication is a summary only it may not contain all material terms and therefore this
communication in and of itself should not form the basis for any investment decision. Financial instruments that may be
discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors, and potential investors must make an independent assessment of
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represent that they possess, either individually or through their advisers, sufficient investment expertise to understand the
risks involved in any purchase or sale of any financial instrument discussed herein.
Risk Sentiment
Eurozone Risk Sentiment Index
Ris k Appetite
Ris k Appetite
0,35
0,35
0,1
0,1
-0,15
-0,15
-0,4
-0,4
-0,65
-0,65
-0,9
-0,9
-1,15
-1,15
Ris k Avers ion
Ris k Avers ion

-1,4
7 /0 7
9 /0 7
1 1 /0 7
1 /0 8
3 /0 8
5 /0 8
7 /0 8
9 /0 8
1 1 /0 8
1 /0 9
3 /0 9
5 /0 9
7 /0 9
9 /0 9
1 1 /0 9
1 /1 0
3 /1 0
5 /1 0
7 /1 0
9 /1 0
1 1 /1 0
1 /1 1
3 /1 1
5 /1 1
7 /1 1
9 /1 1
1 1 /1 1
-1,4
7 /0 7
9 /0 7
1 1 /0 7
1 /0 8
3 /0 8
5 /0 8
7 /0 8
9 /0 8
1 1 /0 8
1 /0 9
3 /0 9
5 /0 9
7 /0 9
9 /0 9
1 1 /0 9
1 /1 0
3 /1 0
5 /1 0
7 /1 0
9 /1 0
1 1 /1 0
1 /1 1
3 /1 1
5 /1 1
7 /1 1
9 /1 1
1 1 /1 1
0,6
US Risk Sentiment Index

0,6
Source: Bloomberg,
Bloomberg, International Markets Analysis
Risk aversion remains high due to worries about the Eurozone debt crisis spreading to the
core.
EUR/USD
Daily QEUR=
0.0%
2/26/2010 - 12/26/2011 (GMT)

Price
USD
1.4941
1.48
1.46
1.44
0.0%
1.4246
1.42
1.4
38.2% 1.3825
38.2% 1.3769
1.38
1.36
61.8% 1.3565
1.34
76.4% 1.3404
1.32
100.0% 1.3144
61.8% 1.3045
1.3
76.4% 1.2598
100.0% 1.1874
Mar
Apr
Q1 10
May
Jun
Q2 2010
1.28
BarOHLC, QEUR=, Bid

11/22/2011, 1.3493, 1.3568, 1.3467, 1.3560
BBand, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 21, Simple, 2.0
11/22/2011, 1.4129, 1.3723, 1.3317
SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 55
11/22/2011, 1.3679
SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 200
11/22/2011, 1.4101
1.26
1.24
1.22
1.2
Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis
Jul
Aug
Sep
Q3 2010
Oct
Nov
Dec
Q4 2010
Jan
Feb
Mar
Q1 2011
Apr
May
Jun
Q2 2011
Jul
Aug
Sep
Q3 2011
Oct
Nov
1.18
.1234
Dec
Q4 2011
Support levels in the short term for EUR/USD at $1.3404 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement: $1.3144$1.4247) and at $1.3315 (lower range of Bollinger Bands). Next significant support level at $1.3144
(4/10/11 low). Further support at $1.3045 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement: $1.1875-$1.4939).
Resistance level at $1.3811 (14/11/11 high) and at $1.3871 (1/11/11 high). Further resistance level
at $1.4100 (200 days MA).
USD/JPY
Daily QJPY=
7/12/2010 - 12/19/2011 (GMT)

BarOHLC, QJPY=, Bid
11/22/2011, 76.93, 77.31, 76.84, 76.97
SMA, QJPY=, Bid(Last), 200
11/22/2011, 79.49
SMA, QJPY=, Bid(Last), 55
11/22/2011, 76.95
Price
/USD
90
88
86
100.0% 85.56
84
76.4% 83.2
82
61.8% 81.74
50.0% 80.56
80
38.2% 79.38
78
23.6% 77.92
0.0%
76
75.56
.12
MACD, QJPY=, Bid(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential
11/22/2011, 0.00, 0.10
Aug
Sep
Q3 2010
Oct
Nov
Dec
Q4 2010
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr May
Q1 2011
Jun
Q2 2011
Jul
Aug
Sep
Q3 2011
Oct
Nov
Dec
Value
/USD
Q4 2011
Source: Reuters,
Mid term downwards trend for USD/JPY persists.
Support levels are placed at 76.55 (18/11/11 low) and at 75.51 (31/10/11 low).
Resistance levels at 79.50 (200 DMA & 31/10/11 high) and at 80.24 (4/8/11 high).
EUR/JPY
Daily QEURJPY=
6/14/2010 - 12/2/2011 (GMT)
100.0% 123.34
Price
JPY
120
118
76.4% 118
116
61.8% 114.7
114
112
50.0% 112.04
110
38.2% 109.37
108
BarOHLC, QEURJPY=, Bid
11/22/2011, 103.80, 104.34, 103.66, 104.25
SMA, QEURJPY=, Bid(Last), 200
11/22/2011, 112.14
11/22/2011, 105.27
11/22/2011, 106.00
106
23.6% 106.07
104
102
0.0%
100.74
100
.12
MACD, QEURJPY=, Bid(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential

11/22/2011, -0.58, -0.25
Value
JPY
0
-1
.12
16
01
16
02 16
01
Q3 2010
16
01
18 01
16
01
Q4 2010
16
03 17
01
16 01
16
01
18 02 16
Q1 2011
01
Q2 2011
16
01
18 01
16
01
Q3 2011
16
03 17
01
16 01
Q4 2011
Support level for EUR/JPY at 100.74 (3/10/11 low).
EUR/JPY may test resistance levels at 109.37 (Fibonacci retracement level 38.2%: 123.34100.74) and at 111.92 (29/8/11 high).
Source: Reuters,, International Markets Analysis
Source: Reuters International Markets Analysis
GBP/USD
Daily QGBP=
0.0%
1/20/2010 - 12/6/2011 (GMT)

Price
USD
1.6745
1.64
0.0%
23.6% 1.6151
1.62
1.6165
1.6
23.6% 1.5953
38.2% 1.5823
50.0% 1.5717
61.8% 1.5612
38.2% 1.5784
50.0% 1.5487
1.58
1.56
76.4% 1.5481
1.54
100.0% 1.527
1.52
61.8% 1.5191
Cndl, QGBP=, Bid
11/22/2011, 1.5642, 1.5691, 1.5616, 1.5652
SMA, QGBP=, Bid(Last), 200
11/22/2011, 1.6127
11/22/2011, 1.5934
11/22/2011, 1.5782
76.4% 1.4823
1.5
1.48
1.46
1.44
100.0% 1.423
.1234
MACD, QGBP=, Bid(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential

11/22/2011, -0.0040, 0.0007
Value
USD
-0.01
Source: Reuters,
Feb
Mar
Q1 2010
Apr
May
Jun
Q2 2010
Jul
Aug
Sep
Q3 2010
Oct
Nov
Dec
Q4 2010
Jan
Feb
Mar
Q1 2011
Apr
May
Jun
Q2 2011
Jul
Aug
Sep
Q3 2011
.1234
Oct
Nov
Dec
Q4 2011
GBP/USD will probably range trade in the short term (up to 1 month), with some bias to the
downside.
Support placed at $1.5541 (12/10/11 low), at $1.5480 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement $1.5270
$1.6165) and at $1.5270 (6/10/11 low).
Resistance levels are found at $1.5930 (21 DMA) and at the area of $1.6125-65 (200 DMA &
31/10/11 high).
EUR/GBP
Daily QEURGBP=
3/18/2010 - 12/5/2011 (GMT)

Price
GBP
0.0%
0.9083
0.905
0.9
0.895
0.89
0.885
23.6% 0.8843
0.88
0.875
0.87
38.2% 0.8694
0.865
0.86
50.0% 0.8574
0.855
0.85
0.845
61.8% 0.8454
0.84
0.835
SMA, QEURGBP=, Bid(Last), 200

11/22/2011, 0.8741
SMA, QEURGBP=, Bid(Last), 55
11/22/2011, 0.8666
Cndl, QEURGBP=, Bid
11/22/2011, 0.8625, 0.8659, 0.8615, 0.8652
BBand, QEURGBP=, Bid(Last), 21, Simple, 2.0
11/22/2011, 0.8761, 0.8611, 0.8460
76.4% 0.8305
0.83
0.825
0.82
0.815
0.81
100.0% 0.8065
0.805
Source: Reuters,
Apr
May
Jun
Q2 2010
Jul
Aug
Sep
Q3 2010
Oct
Nov
Dec
Q4 2010
Jan
Feb
Mar
Q1 2011
Apr
May
Jun
Q2 2011
Jul
Aug
Sep
Q3 2011
Oct
Nov
.1234
Dec
Q4 2011
EUR/GBP continues to oscillate in tight range trading mode (0.8750 0.8450) in the short term.
The medium term upwards trend was broken on the 31st of October.
Support levels are found at the area of 0.8482 (10/11/11 low) and at the area of 0.8450 (lower
Bollinger band & 61.8% Fibonacci retracement 0.8065 0.9083).
Resistance level at the area of 0.8740-60 (200 DMA & upper Bollinger band) and 0.8830
(27/10/11 high).
USD/CHF
Daily QCHF=
10/13/2010 - 11/29/2011 (GMT)
100.0% 1.0066
Price
/USD
0.96
76.4% 0.9363
0.93
0.9
61.8% 0.8928
0.87
50.0% 0.8576
0.84
38.2% 0.8224
23.6% 0.7789
0.0%
0.81
Cndl, QCHF=, Bid

11/22/2011, 0.9171, 0.9186, 0.9110, 0.9120
SMA, QCHF=, Bid(Last), 55
11/22/2011, 0.8956
11/22/2011, 0.8689
11/22/2011, 0.8958
0.78
0.75
0.72
0.7085
Source: Reuters,
MACD, QCHF=, Bid(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential
11/22/2011, 0.0082, 0.0064
.1234
Value
/USD
0
.1234
18
01
Oct 10
16
Nov 10
01
16
Dec 10
03
17
Jan 11
01
16
Feb 11
01
16
Mar 11
01
18
Apr 11
02
16
May 11
01
16
Jun 11
01
18
Jul 11
01
16
Aug 11
01
16
Sep 11
03
17
Oct 11
01
16
Nov 11
USD/CHF upwards trend has been strengthening in the short term, as indicated by daily trend
indicators.
Resistance is found at the area of 0.9340-63 CHF (1/4/11 high & 76.4% Fibonacci retracement
1.0066 0.7085 CHF) and at 0.9775 CHF (11/2/11 high).
Support levels at the area of 0.9010 CHF (uptrend line), at 0.8960 CHF (21 & 55 DMA) and at
0.8690 CHF (200 DMA).
EUR/CHF
Daily QEURCHF=
8/17/2010 - 12/1/2011 (GMT)

Price
CHF
100.0% 1.3834
1.35
1.32
76.4% 1.2953
1.29
1.26
61.8% 1.2408
1.23
1.2
50.0% 1.1967
1.17
38.2% 1.1527
1.14
Cndl, QEURCHF=, Bid
11/22/2011, 1.2375, 1.2386, 1.2340, 1.2352
SMA, QEURCHF=, Bid(Last), 21
11/22/2011, 1.2291
11/22/2011, 1.2249
11/22/2011, 1.2246
23.6% 1.0982
1.11
1.08
1.05
Source: Reuters,
0.0%
01
16
Q3 2010
10
1.02
1.0101
01
18
.1234
01
16
01
Q4 2010
16
03
17
01
16
01
Q1 2011
16
01
18
02
16
01
Q2 2011
16
01
18
01
16
Q3 2011
01
16
03
17
01
16
01
Q4 2011
EUR/CHF exhibits low volatility amid the speculation that SNBs floor could be raised further
towards 1.25 or 1.30 CHF.
Resistance levels are placed at 1.2474 CHF (19/10/11 high) and at 1.2953 CHF (76.4% Fibonacci
retracement 1.3834 1.01 CHF).
Support is found at 1.2250 CHF (200 DMA) and at the area of 1.20 CHF (SNBs minimum
exchange rate).
Crude Oil
Oil (WTI)
(WTI) 1stst Month Future
Daily QCLc1
0.0%
2/25/2010 - 12/5/2011 (NYC)

Price
USD
Bbl
110
114.84
Cndl, QCLc1, Last Trade
11/22/2011, 97.20, 98.20, 96.55, 98.13
SMA, QCLc1, Last Trade(Last), 200
11/22/2011, 95.40
11/22/2011, 89.10
11/22/2011, 95.86
23.6% 102.9
105
0.0%
103.37
100
38.2% 95.51
95
38.2% 92.51
50.0% 89.54
90
50.0% 89.15
61.8% 85.8
85
61.8% 83.57
76.4% 81.65
76.4% 76.19
80
75
100.0% 74.94
70
65
100.0% 64.25
.12
RSI, QCLc1, Last Trade(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing
11/22/2011, 57.072
Source: Reuters,
Value
USD
Bbl
.123
Mar
Apr
Q1 10
11
May
Jun
Q2 2010
Jul
Aug
Sep
Q3 2010
Oct
Nov
Dec
Q4 2010
Jan
Feb
Mar
Q1 2011
Apr
May
Jun
Q2 2011
Jul
Aug
Sep
Q3 2011
Oct
Nov
De
Q4 2011 [Delayed]
Crude oil (WTI) is correcting slightly after posting 5 months high ($103.37/brl) on November 17,
while the uptrend formed during the last month has not reversed.
Support levels at $92.50/brl (38.2% Fibonacci retracement $74.94 - $103.37/brl), at the area of
$89/brl (55 DMA) and at $85.80/brl (61.8% Fibonacci retracement $74.94 - $103.37/brl).
Resistance levels are placed at $100.15/brl (18/11/11 high), at $103.37/brl (17/11/11 high) and at
$104.60/brl (11/5/11 high).
Spot Gold
Daily QXAU=
0.0%
12/9/2010 - 11/29/2011 (GMT)

Price
USD
Ozs
1,920.3
1,850
Cndl, QXAU=, Bid
11/22/2011, 1,678.79, 1,696.98, 1,671.05, 1,694.90
SMA, QXAU=, Bid(Last), 21
11/22/2011, 1,744.42
11/22/2011, 1,719.30
11/22/2011, 1,594.67
38.2% 1,686.4
1,800
1,750
1,700
1,650
50.0% 1,614.15
1,600
1,550
61.8% 1,541.9
1,500
1,450
76.4% 1,452.5
1,400
Source: Reuters,
100.0% 1,308
1,350
.12
MACD, QXAU=, Bid(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential

11/22/2011, 3.15, 13.29
Value
USD
Ozs
0
.12
16
03
Dec 10
12
17
Jan 11
01
16
Feb 11
01
16
Mar 11
01
18
Apr 11
02
16
May 11
01
16
Jun 11
01
18
Jul 11
01
16
Aug 11
01
16
Sep 11
03
17
Oct 11
01
16
Nov 11
Gold probably range trading in the short term. The medium term upwards trend remains intact.
Support level appears at the area of $1,595-1,604/Oz (200 DMA & 20/10/11 low) at the area of
$1,540/Oz (61.8% Fibonacci retracement $1,308 - $1,920.30/oz & medium uptrend line).
Resistance levels are placed at $1,776.60/Oz (8/11/11 high) and at $1,844.39/Oz (14/9/11 high).
S&P 500
Daily Q.SPX
6/12/2007 - 12/22/2011 (CHG)

Price
USD
100.0% 1,576.09
BarOHLC, Q.SPX, Last Trade
11/21/2011, 1,215.62, 1,215.62,
SMA, Q.SPX, Last Trade(Last),
11/21/2011, 1,269.95
11/21/2011, 1,204.29
11/21/2011, 1,245.70
76.4% 1,361.5
1,183.16, 1,192.98
200
1,500
55
1,400
1,450
1,350
21
0.0%
1,300
1,293.24
1,250
61.8% 1,228.74
50.0% 1,121.44
38.2% 1,210
1,200
61.8% 1,158.57
76.4% 1,126.76
1,150
1,100
100.0% 1,075.33
1,050
38.2% 1,014.14
1,000
950
900
23.6% 881.38
850
800
750
0.0%
Source: Reuters, International Markets Analysis
666.79
MACD, Q.SPX, Last Trade(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential

11/21/2011, 1.66, 10.26
700
.12
Value
USD
-50
.12
J A
S O N D J
2007
13
F M A M J J A S O N D
2008
F M A M J
J A S O N D J F M A M J
2009
J A S O N D J F M A M J
2010
J A
2011
S O N D
[Delayed]
S&P 500 seems to be entering into a medium term downtrend (as indicated by weekly ADX,DMI
indicators). In the short term S&P 500 is trading in wide range.
Support levels for S&P 500 in the short term at 1,158.5 and at 1,126.8 (Fibonacci retracement levels
61.8%, 76.4% of the move 1,075-1,293). Further support at 1,075 (low of 4/10, which suggests a
21.5% drop from the May 2 high: 1,371).
Resistance levels in the short term at 1,238-1,246 area (17/11/11 high and 21 days MA) and at
1,270 (200 DMA).
DAX
Daily Q.GDAXI
0.0%
8/4/2008 - 12/14/2011 (FFT)
7,600.403
Price
EUR
7,200
6,900
23.6% 6,653.681
6,600
0.0%
6,430.655
6,300
38.2% 6,067.996
6,000
38.2% 5,871.028
5,700
50.0% 5,698.16
50.0% 5,594.635
61.8% 5,525.291
5,400
76.4% 5,311.402
61.8% 5,121.274
5,100
SMA, Q.GDAXI, Last Trade(Last), 200

100.0% 4,965.664
11/22/2011, 6,611.334
11/22/2011, 5,721.863
11/22/2011, 5,959.166
BBand, Q.GDAXI, Last Trade(Last), 21, Simple, 2.0
11/22/2011, 6,323.683, 5,959.166, 5,594.649
Cndl, Q.GDAXI, Last Trade
11/22/2011, 5,648.500, 5,681.740, 5,605.420, 5,622.380
76.4% 4,535.59
4,800
4,500
4,200
3,900
Source: Reuters,
100.0% 3,588.868
.123
MACD, Q.GDAXI, Last Trade(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential

11/22/2011, -33.789, 19.709
Value
EUR
.123
Q3 08
14
Q4 2008
Q1 2009
Q2 2009
Q3 2009
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
DAX index is in short term range trading mode, with some bias to the downside.
Support levels are found at 5,525 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement 4,965.8 6,430.60) and at
5,125.44 (4/10/11 low).
Resistance levels at 6,116 (14/11/11 high) and at 6,430.61 (28/10/11 high).
US 10YR Government Bond Yield

Daily QUS10YT=RR
3/1/2010 - 12/22/2011 (UTC)

Yield
3.8
100.0% 3.7738
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.3
76.4% 3.278
3.2
3.1
61.8% 2.9712
2.9
2.8
50.0% 2.7233
2.7
2.6
2.5
38.2% 2.4753
2.4
2.3
BarOHLC, QUS10YT=RR, Yield_1
11/22/2011, 1.9653, 1.9948, 1.9498, 1.9913
SMA, QUS10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 200
11/22/2011, 2.7868
BBand, QUS10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 21, Simple, 2.0
11/22/2011, 2.2878, 2.0686, 1.8494
SMA, QUS10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 55
11/22/2011, 2.0357
Mar
Apr
Q1 10
15
May
Jun
Q2 2010
Jul
Aug
Sep
Q3 2010
Oct
2.2
23.6% 2.1686
2.1
2
1.9
1.8
0.0%
Nov
Dec
Q4 2010
1.7
1.6727
Jan
Feb
Source: Reuters,
Mar
Q1 2011
Apr
May
Jun
Q2 2011
Jul
Aug
Sep
Q3 2011
Oct
Nov
Dec
Q4 2011
Resistance level for US 10year government bond yield at 2.17% and at 2.47% (Fibonacci
retracement level 23.6% & 38.2%: 3.77%-1.67%).
Support levels at the area of 1.85% (lower bands Bollinger) and at 1.72% (4/10/11 low).
.1234
German 10YR
10YR Government
Government Bond
Bond Yield
Yield
Daily QDE10YT=RR
8/18/2010 - 12/15/2011 (UTC)
Cndl, QDE10YT=RR, Yield_1

11/22/2011, 1.915, 1.963, 1.908, 1.927
SMA, QDE10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 55
11/22/2011, 1.914
11/22/2011, 2.657
11/22/2011, 1.899
100.0% 3.513
Yield
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
76.4% 3.07
3
2.9
2.8
61.8% 2.796
2.7
2.6
50.0% 2.574
2.5
2.4
38.2% 2.353
2.3
2.2
2.1
23.6% 2.079
2
1.9
1.8
0.0%
Source: Reuters,
1.7
.123
1.636
RSI, QDE10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing

11/22/2011, 55.238
Value
60
30
.123
01
16
Q3 2010
16
01
18
01
16
01
Q4 2010
16
03
17
01
16
01
Q1 2011
16
01
18 02
16
01
Q2 2011
16
01
18
01
16
Q3 2011
01
16
03
17
01
16
Q4 2011
The German 10 year government bond yield remains under downwards trend.
Support is placed at 1.75% (17/11/11 low) and at 1.636% (historic low)
Resistance levels are found at 2.28% (28/10/11 high) and at 2.353% (38.2% Fibonacci
retracement 3.513 1.636%).
01
US 5yr interest rate swap

Daily QUSDSB3L5Y=RR
2/12/2010 - 12/27/2011 (UTC)

Price
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
100.0% 2.106
2.1
2
1.9
76.4% 1.855
1.8
1.7
61.8% 1.699
1.6
50.0% 1.573
1.5
BarOHLC, QUSDSB3L5Y=RR, Bid

11/22/2011, 1.335, 1.356, 1.323, 1.348
SMA, QUSDSB3L5Y=RR, Bid(Last), 55
11/22/2011, 1.290
11/22/2011, 1.308
11/22/2011, 1.770
38.2% 1.447
1.4
1.3
23.6% 1.292
1.2
1.1
0.0%
1.04
Source: Reuters,
MACD, QUSDSB3L5Y=RR, Bid(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential

11/22/2011, 0.002, -0.005
1
.123
Value
0
-0.1
.123
Mar
Apr
Q1 2010
17
May
Jun
Q2 2010
Jul
Aug
Sep
Q3 2010
Oct
Nov
Dec
Q4 2010
Jan
Feb
Mar
Q1 2011
Apr
May
Jun
Q2 2011
Jul
Aug
Sep
Q3 2011
Oct
Nov
Dec
Q4 2011
MACD likely provides an upwards reaction signal.

Resistance for US 5 year swap rate at 1.45% and at 1.57% (38.2% & 50% retracement levels:
2.11%-1.05%).
Support levels at 1.18% (7/11/11 low) and at 1.05% (23/9/11 low).
Euro 5yr interest

interest rate
rate swap
swap
Daily QEURAB6E5Y=
2/8/2010 - 2/1/2012 (GMT)
Cndl, QEURAB6E5Y=, Bid

11/22/2011, 2.0425, 2.0860, 2.0065, 2.027
SMA, QEURAB6E5Y=, Bid(Last), 55
11/22/2011, 1.9856
11/22/2011, 2.5271
11/22/2011, 1.9590
Price
EUR
3.1
3
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
2
1.9
1.8
1.7
.1234
Mar
Apr
Q1 2010
18
May
Jun
Q2 2010
Jul
Aug
Sep
Q3 2010
Oct
Nov
Dec
Q4 2010
Jan
Feb
Mar
Q1 2011
Apr
May
Jun
Q2 2011
Jul
Aug
Sep
Q3 2011
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan Feb
Q4 2011
Q1 12
Euro 5yr interest rate swap remains under downside pressure.

Support at 1.7880% (10/11/11 low) and at 1.6930% (historic low).
Resistance levels are placed at 2.1180% (18/11/11 high), at the area of 2.2080% (13/10/11
high) and at 2.27% (16/8/11 high).
Source: Reuters,
Correlation Matrix
S&P 500
DXY
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
GBP/USD
USD/CHF
EUR/CHF
EUR/GBP
EUR/JPY
Bund Fut.
60 Days Correlation Matrix (Percent Change)

Commodities
MSCI AC World
CRB
GOLD
Current
-1m
Current
-1m
Current
-1m
Current
-1m
Current
-1m
Current
-1m
Current
-1m
Current
-1m
-0,6194
0,7408
-0,1691
0,5451
-0,1145
0,2911
0,5072
0,6305
-0,6204
-0,8311
0,6700
-0,2577
0,6450
-0,5603
-0,2340
0,3355
0,5245
-0,8189
-0,6447
0,5100
-0,0408
0,5359
-0,2201
0,0231
0,1833
0,4798
-0,8103
-0,8767
0,7674
-0,2323
0,6858
-0,5398
-0,1354
0,4373
0,6389
-0,7525
-0,7285
0,6662
-0,1246
0,5795
-0,1596
0,1650
0,3647
0,5833
-0,7226
-0,6545
0,5117
-0,1079
0,3876
-0,3363
-0,0610
0,3591
0,4577
-0,5275
-0,6568
0,4631
-0,1141
0,3697
-0,0715
0,1587
0,2876
0,3917
-0,4462
-0,2414
0,0774
-0,0938
0,1508
-0,0640
-0,0248
-0,0340
0,0214
-0,0332
-0,1238
-0,0747
-0,1488
0,0019
-0,1296
-0,1796
-0,1109
-0,1608
0,2312
-0,6315
0,4434
-0,0399
0,3215
-0,2583
-0,0093
0,3223
0,4261
-0,4546
-0,6234
0,3889
-0,0529
0,2899
0,0305
0,2309
0,2609
0,3532
-0,4519
0,4961
-0,3175
0,1193
-0,4095
0,3890
0,2733
-0,0548
-0,2479
0,7306
0,3643
-0,2287
0,2486
-0,2833
0,2828
0,1855
-0,0436
-0,0757
0,5901
0,7038
-0,7609
0,2886
-0,6273
0,4850
0,0672
-0,4877
-0,5998
0,4705
0,5186
-0,6461
0,2673
-0,4722
0,2044
-0,1014
-0,4457
-0,4797
0,4482
Current
-1m
-0,2408
0,3377
-0,3244
0,1351
-0,1070
0,1159
0,3611
0,1478
-0,2286
-0,2156
0,2348
-0,1378
0,2022
0,2171
0,3568
0,1255
0,1503
-0,1811
10Y US
Current
-1m
2Y GE
Current
-1m
Government Bonds
10Y GE
2Y UK
Current
19
-1m
Current
-1m
-0,6953 -0,5308 -0,6704 -0,6021 -0,8057 -0,6570 -0,2877 -0,1705

0,7187 0,5888 0,5963 0,5976 0,6961 0,6126 0,3158 0,2924
-0,1713 0,0419 -0,2143 -0,2128 -0,2667 -0,0961 -0,1533 -0,1493
0,5493 0,4968 0,4522 0,4393 0,6234 0,5155 0,1202 0,1550
-0,3382 0,0873 -0,4368 -0,2079 -0,5226 -0,2723 -0,0830 0,1152
0,0939 0,3945 -0,1283 0,0800 -0,1645 0,0163 0,1276 0,2768
0,5018 0,3338 0,4177 0,4126 0,3943 0,3525 0,3407 0,2684
0,6294 0,6080 0,4720 0,4608 0,5449 0,5474 0,2263 0,1983
-0,6776 -0,6777 -0,8111 -0,8384 -0,9517 -0,9361 -0,3495 -0,3857
Significant negative correlation
Risk Aversion Index

RA EU
RA US
WTI
-0,8059
0,8324
-0,2188
0,6788
-0,4549
0,1628
0,5793
0,7135
-0,6114
2Y US
DXY
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
GBP/USD
USD/CHF
EUR/CHF
EUR/GBP
EUR/JPY
Bund Fut.
Equity Index
Euro Stoxx 50
10Y UK
2Y JN
10Y JN
Current
-1m
Current
-1m
Current
-1m
-0,7967
0,6119
-0,2970
0,5150
-0,4859
-0,1797
0,3819
0,4407
-0,8635
-0,6191
0,4920
-0,0939
0,3631
-0,2698
-0,0421
0,3399
0,4292
-0,8125
0,0311
-0,0257
0,1826
0,0606
-0,0901
-0,1381
-0,0995
0,0841
0,0518
-0,0169
0,0849
0,0065
0,0498
-0,1092
-0,0745
0,0729
0,0873
0,0074
-0,1339
-0,0126
-0,0360
0,1850
-0,2223
-0,3014
-0,1992
-0,0342
-0,1536
-0,1132
0,0154
-0,0965
0,0229
-0,3152
-0,3335
0,0023
-0,0450
-0,2098
Significant positive correlation
EUR/USD positive correlation with equity markets has strengthened.

EUR/USD still exhibits positive correlation with German 10yr government bond yield.
USD/JPY positive correlation with US yields has been distorted, as the pair is affected by Japan
authorities FX intervention.
GBP/USD is positively correlated with stocks.
Swiss Franc correlation with safe haven assets (Gold, Bund) is not evident, after the SNB
introduced minimum exchange rate.
Source: Bloomberg,
Technical Analysis Synopsis
F ix e d In c o m e
C m d tie s
E q u itie s
FX
Last_Price
DXY Dollar Index
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
EUR/GBP
EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF
S&P 500 INDEX
Euro Stoxx 50 Pr
DAX INDEX
CAC 40 INDEX
NIKKEI 225
Crude Oil 1m Future
GOLD SPOT $/OZ
Copper Furture 1M
10Y GE Govt Yield
2Y GE Govt Yield
10Y US Govt Yield
2Y US Govt Yield
EUR 5 Yr IRS
US 5 Yr IRS
78,204
1,3544
1,5648
76,93
0,9121
0,8655
104,19
1,23546
1192,98
2167,83
5624,86
2910,89
8314,74
97,5
1690,88
329,9
1,921
0,4
1,9731
0,2618
2,0378
1,3405
Percent Change to Date

Week Month Year
0,17 2,67 -1,05
0,14 -2,27 1,20
-0,99 -2,72 0,24
0,03 -1,61 -5,45
-0,47 3,87 -2,51
1,12 0,46 0,93
0,18 -3,97 -4,11
-0,34 1,65 -1,23
-1,86 -4,81 -5,14
-3,07 -9,10 -22,37
-3,00 -8,39 -18,63
-2,86 -10,23 -23,49
-0,72 -7,49 -18,71
0,09 4,62 6,70
-1,92 -1,40 19,01
-3,03 -9,09 -25,69
-2,24 -5,04 -35,10
-14,53 -25,79 -53,70
-1,81 -6,59 -40,06
-5,90 9,91 -55,88
-1,89 7,03 -18,19
-0,30 5,30 -38,29
Range
MA's crossover Overbought/Oversold MACD Signal 3 Months trend
Upper Lower
signal
Singal (Daily)
(Daily)
Range Trading 79,04 75,14
Down
No Signal
Up Signal Range Trading
Up
No Signal
Down Signal Range Trading
Up
No Signal
Down Signal Range Trading
Uptrend
Up
No Signal
Down Signal Downtrend
Uptrend
Up
No Signal
Up Signal
Uptrend
Down
No Signal
Up
No Signal
Uptrend
Up
No Signal
Up Signal
Downtrend
Range Trading 1292 1200
Up
No Signal
Up
No Signal
Up
No Signal
Up
No Signal
Down
No Signal
Uptrend
Up
No Signal
Down Signal
Uptrend
Up
No Signal
Down
No Signal
Down
No Signal
Up Signal
Downtrend
Down
No Signal
Up Signal
Downtrend
Up
No Signal
Up
No Signal
Down
No Signal
Up Signal
Downtrend
Up
No Signal
Up Signal
Downtrend
Monthly trend
Source: Bloomberg,
20
210-326 8265
marketanalysis@alpha.gr
Panos Remoundos
premoundos@alpha.gr
Maria Koutouzi
mkoutouzi@alpha.gr
Ioannis Kouravelos, CFA
ikouravelos@alpha.gr
Konstantinos Anathreptais
kanathreptakis@alpha.gr

CM Techvista 22 11 2011

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Cross Asset

International Markets Analysis

Important Disclaimer in page 2

Ris k Avers ion

US Risk Sentiment Index

2/26/2010 - 12/26/2011 (GMT)

BarOHLC, QEUR=, Bid

7/12/2010 - 12/19/2011 (GMT)

Mid term downwards trend for USD/JPY persists.

6/14/2010 - 12/2/2011 (GMT)

MACD, QEURJPY=, Bid(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential

Support level for EUR/JPY at 100.74 (3/10/11 low).

Source: Reuters International Markets Analysis

1/20/2010 - 12/6/2011 (GMT)

MACD, QGBP=, Bid(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential

3/18/2010 - 12/5/2011 (GMT)

SMA, QEURGBP=, Bid(Last), 200

10/13/2010 - 11/29/2011 (GMT)

Cndl, QCHF=, Bid

8/17/2010 - 12/1/2011 (GMT)

2/25/2010 - 12/5/2011 (NYC)

12/9/2010 - 11/29/2011 (GMT)

MACD, QXAU=, Bid(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential

6/12/2007 - 12/22/2011 (CHG)

Source: Reuters, International Markets Analysis

MACD, Q.SPX, Last Trade(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential

8/4/2008 - 12/14/2011 (FFT)

SMA, Q.GDAXI, Last Trade(Last), 200

MACD, Q.GDAXI, Last Trade(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential

US 10YR Government Bond Yield

3/1/2010 - 12/22/2011 (UTC)

8/18/2010 - 12/15/2011 (UTC)

Cndl, QDE10YT=RR, Yield_1

RSI, QDE10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing

US 5yr interest rate swap

2/12/2010 - 12/27/2011 (UTC)

BarOHLC, QUSDSB3L5Y=RR, Bid

MACD, QUSDSB3L5Y=RR, Bid(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential

MACD likely provides an upwards reaction signal.

Euro 5yr interest

2/8/2010 - 2/1/2012 (GMT)

Cndl, QEURAB6E5Y=, Bid

Euro 5yr interest rate swap remains under downside pressure.

60 Days Correlation Matrix (Percent Change)

-0,6953 -0,5308 -0,6704 -0,6021 -0,8057 -0,6570 -0,2877 -0,1705

Risk Aversion Index

Significant positive correlation

EUR/USD positive correlation with equity markets has strengthened.

Technical Analysis Synopsis

Percent Change to Date

Ioannis Kouravelos, CFA

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