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dividend irrelevance
Theory that a firm's dividend policy is not relevant because
stockholders are ultimately indifferent between receiving
returns from dividends or capital gain.
flotation costs
Costs paid by a firm for the issuance of new stocks or bonds.
capital gains
Profit that results from a disposition of a capital asset, such
as stock, bond, or real estate due to arbitrage.
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Merton Miller
Merton Miller, one of the co-authors of the capital irrelevance theory
which implied dividend irrelevance.
Create Question
Referenced in 2 quiz questions
Dividend Policy
P.V. Viswanath, 1997, 1999, 2000, 2004
Introductory Material
o
Taxation of dividends
Share Repurchases
o
Exercises
Introductory Material
Different types of dividends
the firm
Funding
Needs
Stage 1
Introduction
Stage 2
Rapid
expansion
Limited by size
and other
infrastructure
limits
Moderate
High relative
relative to
to firm value
firm value
Stage 3
Stage 4
Mature growth Decline
Low as
projects dry
up
Cash flow
Negative as
Cash flow
Cash flow
Cash flows
increases as
investments are low relative
high relative
generated
percentage of
made
to firm value
to firm value
firm value
Dividend
Policy
No dividends
New Stock
Issues
No or very
low
dividends
Increase
dividends
Special
dividends
Repurchase
stock
Dividend Irrelevance
What does dividend irrelevance mean? Obviously it cannot mean that
shareholders don't value dividends. Rather, what it means is that under
the right assumptions, shareholders' wealth is unaffected by the
dividend decision. It will be easiest to see this by means of an example:
Example:
Stellar, Inc. has decided to invest $10 m. in a new
project with a NPV of $20 m., but it has not made an
announcement. The company has $10 m. in cash to
finance the new project. Stellar has 10 m. shares of
stock outstanding, selling for $24 each, and no debt.
Hence, its aggregate value is $240 m. prior to the
announcement ($24 per share).
Consider the following alternatives:
1.
with cash.
The value of each share rises to $26
following the announcement. Each
shareholder can sell 0.0385 (= 1/26)
shares to obtain a $1 dividend, leaving
him with .9615 shares value at $25 (26 x
0.9615).
Hence the shareholder has one share
worth $26, or one share worth $25 plus
$1 in cash.
2.
2.
3.
Defensible:
o
Signalling
A manager who perceives his firm's stock price
to be undervalued, may choose to increase
dividends to signal to the market his belief that
the true market value of the stock is higher.
Managers of overvalued firms (bad firms) will
not mimic the undervalued firm (good firm)
manager's actions because the cost of
increasing dividends is much higher for the
overvalued firm manager. For example, bad
firms will be more likely to run into liquidity
problems with a higher dividend, and are more
likely to have to resort to expensive outside
financing to pay the higher dividend.
Indefensible:
o
Bird-in-the-hand Fallacy
This argument, which is often made by naive
investors, is that dividends
represent
cash in hand, whereas reinvesting
that cash in the hope of greater
dividends in the future is a risky
prospect. Hence, shareholders are
better off with the dividend. The
proper rebuttal to this assertion is
that if cash flows are priced
correctly in the market, then the
present value of the larger riskier
gains (except for a short period in 1986). This implies that there are
disadvantages to paying dividends compared to capital gains. However,
not all shareholders find capital gains more attractive than dividends.
Pension funds and other tax-exempt entities do not have any
preference for capital gains over dividends, since they are not taxed at
all. Stock brokers and dealers who trade for their own account are
taxed on both dividends and capital gains at the same rate.
Corporations are only taxed on 70% of their dividends, while they pay
taxes on all of their capital gains. Furthermore, some investors may
prefer dividends over capital gains for reasons of transactions costs.
Finally, firms that do not have profitable projects to invest in, will be
better off paying out earnings as dividends. Consequently, in
equilibrium, different firms might have different payout ratios. One
implication of the tax disadvantages of dividends relative to capital
gains is that stock prices might not fall by the same amount as the
dividend payment:
Suppose to represents the tax rate on ordinary dividends and
tcg represents the tax rate on capital gains. Let PB denote the cumdividend stock price, and PA the ex-dividend stock price, and P the price
at which the stock was acquired. Then, for the marginal investor,
PB-(PB-P)tcg = PA-(PA-P)tcg + D(1-to), where the LHS is the after-tax gain
from selling the stock cum-dividend and the RHS is the after-tax gain
from selling the stock ex-dividend. This yields the
relationship
. By examining the empirical price drop,
one may then infer the marginal tax bracket for holders of the firm's
stock. Studies in 1970 found that the difference between the cumdividend and ex-dividend prices was about 78% on average, and they
concluded that there must be a tax clientele effect. They also found
that the drop was largest for firms with the highest dividend yields.
They argued that this was due to the fact that the investors in these
firms were in the lowest tax brackets, as would be predicted by the
relationship above. However, consider the possibility of dividend
capture, where a low tax bracket investor can buy the cum-dividend
stock, obtain the dividends sell it at the ex-dividend price, thus
capturing the difference between the theoretical no-clientele effect
price drop and the actual price drop.
Here is an example of dividend capture (no recommendation intended)
A Framework for Analyzing Dividend Policy
Factors to be taken into account in determining Dividend Policy:
FCFE<<Dividends
ROE>Cost of Equity
Good Projects
No Change
Good Projects
Cut Dividends
Invest in Projects
ROE<Cost of Equity
Poor Projects
Increase Dividends
Reduce Investment
Poor Projects
Cut Dividends
Reduce Investment
Thus, as long as the firm repurchases the shares at the market price of
$25, a shareholder who does not sell will have the same wealth as a
shareholder who does sell--$25. The difference is that the former has it
in stock, the latter in cash.
If Buttle paid the $5 dividend, every shareholder would have their
wealth in the same form--$5 in cash plus $20 in stock.
Impact of share repurchases on EPS:
Following the distribution of the $50 m. whether through a stock
repurchase or through a dividend payment, the firm's shares will trade
at a P/E ratio of 8 (= $20/$2.50).
Neither the firm's capital structure nor its capital investment policies
are affected by the method of cash distribution; hence the risk-return
tradeoff is the same.
Under the dividend alternative, the EPS is unchanged at $2.50, because
the $50 m. paid out were unused, and the number of shares is
unchanged. Each shareholder gets (EPS x P/E = $2.50 x 8 =) $20 + $5
= $25 in total value.
Under the share repurchase alternative, the projected EPS is higher at