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5.11 : =
Inventory Investment
Inventory investment (the goods that businesses put aside in storage)
is negligible and of great significance. It is one of the smallest
components of spending, averaging 1 percent of GDP. Yet its
remarkable volatility makes it central to the study of economic
fluctuations. In a typical recession, more than half the fall in spending
comes from a decline in inventory investment.
Q: Why do businesses hold inventories?
A: Inventories serve many purposes.
Inventory Investment
(i) Production smoothing
One use of inventories is to smooth the level of production over time.
When a firm experiences temporary booms and busts in sales, it may
find it cheaper to produce goods at a steady rate rather than
adjusting production to match the fluctuations in sales. When sales
are low, the firm produces more than it sells and puts the extra goods
into inventory. When sales are high, the firm produces less than it
sells and takes goods out of inventory.
Inventory Investment
(ii) Inventories as a factor of production: the larger the stock of
inventories a firm holds, the more output it can produce.
Inventories may allow a firm to operate more efficiently.
For example, manufacturing firms keep inventories of spare parts to
reduce the time that the assembly line is shut down when a machine
breaks.
(iii) Stock-out avoidance: avoid running out of goods when sales are
unexpectedly high.
If demand exceeds production and there are no inventories, the good
will be out of stock for a period, and the firm will lose sales and profit.
Inventories can prevent this from happening.
Inventory Investment
(iv) Work-in-process
Many goods require a number of production steps and, therefore,
take time to produce. When a product is only partly completed, its
components are counted as part of a firms inventory.
Inventory Investment
Q: How do the real interest rate and credit conditions affect inventory
investment?
A: (i) Inventory investment depends on the real interest rate.
When a firm holds a good inventory and sells it tomorrow rather than
selling it today, it gives up the interest it could have earned between
today and tomorrow. Thus, the real interest rate measures the
opportunity cost of holding inventories. When the real interest rate
rises, holding inventories becomes more costly, so rational firms try
to reduce their stock.
Inventory Investment
Therefore, an increase in the real interest rate depresses inventory
investment. For example, in the 1980s many firms adopted just-in time production plans, which were designed to reduce the amount
of inventory by producing goods just before sale.
(ii) Inventory investment also depends on credit conditions. Because
many firms rely on bank loans to finance their purchases of
inventories, they cut back when these loans are hard to come by.
Inventory Investment
For instance, during the financial crisis of 2008 2009, firms reduced
their inventory holdings substantially. During this severe recession, as
in many economic downturns, the decline in inventory investment
was a key part of the decline in AD.
Investment (I)
5.12 : = , = + where 0 , 1 , 2 > 0.
+
Investment (I)
5.12 : = , or = 0 + 1 2
+,
The higher the interest rate, the less attractive a firm is to borrow and
invest since the interest rate is the cost of borrowing to finance
investment projects. At a high enough interest rate, the additional
profits from using the new machine will not cover interest payment
and the new machine will not be worth buying.
Investment (I)
5.12 : = , or = 0 + 1 2
+,
Investment (I)
Changes in autonomous investment spending 0 shift the
investment line.
An increase in 0 means that at each level of the interest rate, firms
plan to invest at a higher rate. This means a rightward shift of the
investment line.
Determination of Output
5.13 : = = + + , +
income and so
.
In short, ( ) through its effect on both consumption
and investment.
This relation between demand and output, for a given interest rate,
is represented by the upward-sloping curve ZZ.
The IS Curve
The IS curve shows the combination of the interest rate and
the equilibrium level of income in the goods market.
An increase (a decrease) in i leads to a fall (or a rise) in Y: IS curve is
downward sloping i and the equilibrium output (Y) is negatively
related. That is, the IS curve illustrates how the equilibrium level of
income depends on the interest rate.
The IS curve shows for any given interest rate the level of income that
brings the goods market into equilibrium.
Keep in mind that each point on the IS curve represents the
equilibrium output in the goods market for the given interest rate.
The IS Curve
1
11 1 1
0 + 0 + 1 +
11 1 1
1
1 1 1 1
5.14 : =
0 + 0 + 1 +
2
2
Meaning: The IS curve gives all the combination of and that cause
the market for goods to clear (i.e. to be in equilibrium).