2011 James Tyson

Central Jersey Solar Planning's GRID-PARITY CALCULATOR for Individual Solar Site Evaluatio

The Grid Parity Calculator may copied by users ONLY for use in financial evaluations of INDIVIDUAL so
a) The entire workbook is copied, including the sheets explaining the Variable Details and t
b) No changes may be made to any cells in the spreadsheet, except for the green-font inpu
c) The user inserts the variables in accordance with the instructions given on the "Variable
d) The user accepts full responsibility for verifying the accuracy of the calculations and hol

Any other use of this intellectual property, without the express written consent of the owner, is forbidd
This includes, but is not limited to, publication of it in any electronic media, use of it for pu
from it in any publications.

Those who wish to use it for publication, policy research or any purposes other than an individual proj
James Tyson by email at JayTyson@CJSolarPlanning.com.

l Solar Site Evaluations is protected under US copyright laws.

ations of INDIVIDUAL solar sites, and then under the follow conditions:
he Variable Details and the Copyright requirements
pt for the green-font input cells and the Project Name & Notes areas on the GP Calcs sheet.
s given on the "Variable Details" sheet.
the calculations and holds the Copyright owner harmless under all circumstances.

t of the owner, is forbidden.

c media, use of it for public or private policy purposes and publications of results

r than an individual project evaluation may obtain written consent by contacting

Central Jersey Solar Planning's GRID-PARITY CALCULATOR for Individual Solar Site Evaluations

INPUTS Adjust only the items in GREEN for your local situation.
Firm, Site-Specific Variables (for detailed definitions, see "Variables Defined" tab):
1
$0.1900 Current average cost of electricity per kWh (averaged over the course of the ye
2
$5.00 Installed price per watt for PV system, including sales tax (if any)
3
10.00 Total size of the PV system, in DC rated kW
4
1,200 First year's annual production of AC kWh by a 1 kW PV system at your site (Obt
5
1.00% Anticipated loss, per year, in PV system's productivity, based on module manufa
6
25 Years of life cycle (normally 25 years, but can be adjusted if roofing conditions,
7
$715 Current cost per kW for inverter replacement, including installation
8
$100 Current average cost per year for tree trimming
9
$150 Current annual cost for system cleaning, monitoring, and maintenance
10
$1.00 Current annual cost for add'l homeowners insurance, per $1,000 cost of PV syst
11
0.00% Property tax rate for add'l annual property tax payment, required as a result of a
Businesses: For equipment depreciation tax benefits, insert savings below in Co
Speculative Variables (cannot be determined with certainty, even when all of the details o
12
3.0% Projected inflation rate for typical costs
13
5.0% Projected inflation rate for grid electricity. This is the biggest single unknown aff
14
$0 Estimated present value of equipment at end of life cycle, minus the removal co
PV SYSTEM EXPENSE CALCULATIONS (over the entire life cycle)

Installed
PV System
Present
Value:

Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

$50,000

Inverter
Replacement
$7,150

Tree
Trimming

Cleaning
,
Monitori
ng &
Maint.

Insurance

$2,500

$3,750

$1,250

Present
Add'l
Residual
Property Value at
Tax, if End of Life
any
Cycle
$0

$0

Business owners can also include in the calculation

their estimated annual tax savings
due to depreciation of PV equipment.
Enter these as positive numbers in the green cells at right.
(See your tax consultant for details.)

18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50

dual Solar Site Evaluations

2011 James Tyson. See "Copyright" tab for details.

www.cjsolarplanning

Project Name & Address:

iables Defined" tab):
List Project Name & Address here
raged over the course of the year prior to installation)
sales tax (if any)

kW PV system at your site (Obtain this value from PVWatts, based on site-specific conditions & derate factors)
ctivity, based on module manufacturer's warranty
e adjusted if roofing conditions, shading conditions, or other factors require it
ncluding installation

oring, and maintenance

ance, per $1,000 cost of PV system replacement
ayment, required as a result of adding the PV system
nefits, insert savings below in Column I.
ven when all of the details of a proposed PV system are known):

s the biggest single unknown affecting the Grid Parity question.

life cycle, minus the removal costs

the entire life cycle)

GRID EXPENSE CALCULATIONS

Present Value
of All PV Costs Total AC
over the Life
kWh
Cycle
Produced
$64,650

$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0

Total AC
kWh
Consumed

Grid Cost
Per kWh

266,614

266,614

$0.1900

12,000
11,880
11,761
11,644
11,527
11,412
11,298
11,185
11,073
10,962
10,853
10,744
10,637
10,530
10,425
10,321
10,217

12,000
11,880
11,761
11,644
11,527
11,412
11,298
11,185
11,073
10,962
10,853
10,744
10,637
10,530
10,425
10,321
10,217

$0.1995
$0.2095
$0.2199
$0.2309
$0.2425
$0.2546
$0.2673
$0.2807
$0.2948
$0.3095
$0.3250
$0.3412
$0.3583
$0.3762
$0.3950
$0.4147
$0.4355

Present Value
of Grid
Electricity
over the Life
Cycle
$65,017

$2,394.00
$2,488.56
$2,586.86
$2,689.04
$2,795.26
$2,905.67
$3,020.45
$3,139.75
$3,263.77
$3,392.69
$3,526.70
$3,666.01
$3,810.82
$3,961.34
$4,117.82
$4,280.47
$4,449.55

$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0

10,115
10,014
9,914
9,815
9,717
9,620
9,523
9,428
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

10,115
10,014
9,914
9,815
9,717
9,620
9,523
9,428
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

$0.4573
$0.4801
$0.5041
$0.5293
$0.5558
$0.5836
$0.6128
$0.6434
$0.6756
$0.7094
$0.7448
$0.7821
$0.8212
$0.8622
$0.9053
$0.9506
$0.9981
$1.0480
$1.1004
$1.1555
$1.2132
$1.2739
$1.3376
$1.4045
$1.4747
$1.5484
$1.6259
$1.7072
$1.7925
$1.8821
$1.9762
$2.0751
$2.1788

$4,625.31
$4,808.01
$4,997.92
$5,195.34
$5,400.56
$5,613.88
$5,835.63
$6,066.13
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00

ee "Copyright" tab for details.

www.cjsolarplanning.com

List additional comments about the project here.

Add'l Notes

n site-specific conditions & derate factors)

Present Value of Total PV Net Savings (or Net Expense) Over

the Life Cycle of the System. Net Expense, in red, indicates
grid parity has not yet been reached. (No financial incentives
are included.)

$367
Assumptions:
1) PV system has been sized so that, over the course of a
year, all energy produced has been consumed on site, or any
annual excess energy is being reimbursed at full retail value.
2) Net metering allows energy to go back to the grid at full
retail value, over the course of at at least one year.
3) Cost of inverter replacement, insurance, tree trimming,
cleaning, monitoring, and general maintenance and property
taxes will rise at same pace as general inflation.

Notes:
1) This is a Grid Parity Calculator, which means that NO tax
credits, rebates, SRECs, or other financial incentives have
been included in the calculations. If you can determine them
using www.DSIREusa.org and other resources, you can set the
total incentives against the Net Expense given above (if any)
to estimate your total profit or loss on the PV system over its
life.
2) Due to the uncertainties associated with the variables
especially the three speculative ones (#12, #13, and #14)it
is impossible to say with certainty whether financial incentives
will be needed to make a PV project financially attractive. The
Grid-Parity Calculator can help solar planners quantify the
possible incentive needs under a variety of assumptions that
they can make using the variables.

2) Due to the uncertainties associated with the variables

especially the three speculative ones (#12, #13, and #14)it
is impossible to say with certainty whether financial incentives
will be needed to make a PV project financially attractive. The
Grid-Parity Calculator can help solar planners quantify the
possible incentive needs under a variety of assumptions that
they can make using the variables.

*Limitations:
The Calculator will not give valid results for life-cycles greater
than 50 years. Life cycles that are not whole numbers may
also return erroneous results.

Definitions and Explanations Regarding Grid Parity and Each o

2011 James Tyson. See "Copyright" tab for details.

www.cjsolarplanning.com

Note: This calculator provides an estimate of "apparent grid parity" (GP A) i.e. it does not attempt to a
such as free disposal of certain gaseous and liquid wastes into the atmosphere and rivers, etc. To acc
average cost per Kw-Hr to the cost of electricity in Variable 1. This would result in many more solar si
purely academic.
Sample

Input # Figures Site-specific variables:

(Note: The numbers on this sheet are e
$0.1900 Current average cost of electricity per Kw-Hr, including both generation and transm
electricity bills. Ideally, it is the average cost during the 12-months prior to the sta
tiers or time-of-use to the extent that the solar system will provide alternative ener

1
2

$5.00 Installed price per watt for your solar system, including sales tax if any. It is best t
factors associated with your particular site. Add in any initial tree trimming or othe
watt prices in your location, go to: http://openpv.nrel.gov/ . Enter your state or zip
spreadsheet to sort out only the projects that are (a) recent (last year or so) and (b
Variable 3 below). Then create a "cost per watt" column which takes the total proje
project. This will give you a good idea of recent prices in your area. It will likely be

10.00 Total size of the solar system, in DC nameplate Kilowatts i.e. the number of panels
systems typically range between 3 and 10 Kw in size.

1,200 Annual production of AC Kw-Hrs by a 1-KW size solar system at your site during th
http://rredc.nrel.gov/solar/calculators/PVWATTS/version1/ . This is where the locatio
typical values are provided for most of the terms, but if you need more exact inform
the "DC Rating (kW)". Note that "Cost of Electricity" can be ignored, as we have al
Factors" according to the specifics of your system. Leave the 11th one as 1.0. Tha
parts of the year, you may need to have a solar consultant do a shade analysis to d
(kWhr) in the righthand table, at the bottom of the middle column, and enter it as

1.00% Anticipated loss in productivity of PV system per year, based on panel manufacture
for the panels you plan to use for this detail. If you wish to be less conservative (i.
downward slightly. (See also Column AA in PV Module Buyer's Guide at http://hom

25 yrs of life cycle. Normally 25 years, but can be increased or decreased if roofing co
For periods shorter than 13 years or longer than 25 years, you should consider adju
respectively. See Variable 7 for more details. Note 2: Use whole numbers only. Fr

$715 Current cost per Kw for replacement of inverter, including installation. A general e
environment/inverter-prices . For a more exact estimate, you can contact a local s
25-yr life cycle of a system. If you are using a longer life cycle, and will need 2 or 3
life-cycle with an inverter guaranteed to last the length of the life cycle, change th

$150 Current, average, cost per year for tree trimming. If you have no trees that could g
yourself with no charge for your own time, mark this as "0". If you will need a trim
$150 here ($600 divided by 4). If you have to trim or remove trees at the time of i
trim their trees) add these costs, divided by the total number of watts, to the insta

$100 Current, annual cost for system Cleaning, Monitoring and Maintenance. Frequency
average dust/pollen is not removed (by hose or by rain), expect a loss of at least 5
included if you use the standard PVWatts derate factor of 0.77 as part of Variable 4
number of hours per year times the value of your time. Computer-based monitorin
Outside-of-warranty repairs are infrequent and difficult to estimate. An educated g
guestimated number of years between visits.

10

$1.00 Current annual cost for additional homeowners insurance, per $1,000 cost of solar
storm or other disaster destroys the panels and/or the whole house. Your homeow
rate for any improvements to the home. It typically ranges from $0.50 to $2.00 pe

11

0.00% Property tax rate for additional annual property tax payment, if required, as a resu
for your state at www.dsireusa.org (Property Tax Exemption). If you are not exemp
0.5% and 3% of the market value.

12

Speculative variables: (These cannot be determined with certainty, even when all
3.0% Projected general inflation rate for typical costs. It is difficult to predict inflation ra
more significant is the general inflation rate compared to the inflation rate of the c

13

5.0% Projected inflation rate for electricity from the grid. This is the biggest unknown. H
faster? This depends on which part of history you're looking at. And how similar w
supply? Will the government add taxes to the fossil fuel industry to reflect its real
from 0% to 6.5%. I agree that it's likely to be more than the general inflation figure
plot a few different values and review the corresponding results.

14

$0 Total present value of equipment at end of life cycle, minus the removal & disposa
you assume that the cost of removing and selling the panels is equal to their resale
salvage value, then enter the total cost of removal + disposal as a negative num
sales costs, enter the difference between the two as a positive number.

Parity and Each of the Grid Parity Variables:

.e. it does not attempt to account for direct subsidies received by the fossil fuel industry, nor for indirect subsid
here and rivers, etc. To account for these items i.e. to calculate for true Grid Parity (GP T), you would need to add
esult in many more solar sites reaching grid parity. But until such costs are actually required by law, their inclus

umbers on this sheet are examples only. Changes to the variables here will not affect the calculations sheet.)

both generation and transmission charges (if these are separately itemized on your bill). This can be found on y
e 12-months prior to the start-up of the system. For tiered or time-of-use rate structures, use the cost of the up
will provide alternative energy for those tiers or during those times-of-use.

sales tax if any. It is best to get a quote from a local installer in your area, who can take into account any specia
initial tree trimming or other site adjustment costs. However, if you need only a general idea of the recent cost
ov/ . Enter your state or zip code. Click on "Export to CSV", download the data into a spreadsheet. Use the
cent (last year or so) and (b) relatively nearby (select nearby zip codes) and (c) approximately the same size (se
n which takes the total project cost on each line and divides it by the total number of watts (Kw x 1000) for that
n your area. It will likely be somewhere between $4 and $10 per watt.

s i.e. the number of panels times the watts per panel at Standard Test Conditions (STC) divided by 1,000. Resid

ystem at your site during the 1st year. Obtain this from the PV Watts Version 1 Calculator found at
/ . This is where the location, the weather and 13 additional site-specific variables are added. Explanations and
you need more exact information, contact a solar designer/consultant to guide you through this. Always use 1.0
n be ignored, as we have already listed that as Variable 1 above. Review and adjust as needed the first 10 "Der
e the 11th one as 1.0. That is adjusted separately as Variable 5 here. If parts of your array will be shaded durin
ant do a shade analysis to determine this factor. After clicking the "Calculate" button, find the Yearly AC Energy
dle column, and enter it as Variable 4 here. 600 to 1800 are typical values.

ased on panel manufacturer's warranty. Typically this ranges from 0.5% to 1.0%. Check the technical specifica
h to be less conservative (i.e. assume less loss than the worst case under the warranty) you can adjust this figur
uyer's Guide at http://homepower.com/webextras for info on warranty for specific models against productivity lo

d or decreased if roofing conditions or shading conditions or other factors require it (50 year maximum).
Not
rs, you should consider adjusting the number of inverter replacements from 1 downward to 0 or upward to 2 or
Use whole numbers only. Fractions (e.g. 12.5 years) may result in inaccurate calculations.

ng installation. A general estimate can be obtained from Solarbuzz.com/facts-and-figures/retail-pricee, you can contact a local solar dealer. NOTE: This calculation assumes one inverter replacement during the typ
e cycle, and will need 2 or 3 replacements, multiply the normal cost by 2 or 3 accordingly. If you are using a sho
of the life cycle, change this variable to "$0".

u have no trees that could grow up during the life-cycle to cast a shadow on the panels, or if you plan to trim the
"0". If you will need a trim once every 4 years, and your local landscapers currently charge $600 per visit, ente
move trees at the time of installation, and if you need to buy a solar easement from your neighbors (i.e. the rig
mber of watts, to the installed price-per-watt calculation in Variable 2.

d Maintenance. Frequency of cleaning will vary depending on site- and weather-conditions, and tilt angle of pan
, expect a loss of at least 5% of your annual energy. This, along with an assumed 2% system downtime, is alrea
of 0.77 as part of Variable 4. If you are planning to do all of the CM&M work yourself, insert your estimate of th
Computer-based monitoring may be available for free. Do NOT include warranty-based repairs, as these are fre
o estimate. An educated guess may be needed here based on typical cost of an electrician's visit divided by th

ce, per $1,000 cost of solar system replacement. This is for the replacement of the system in the event that a fl
whole house. Your homeowners insurance agent or company should be able to provide this figure, as it is a stan
ges from $0.50 to $2.00 per $1,000.

ment, if required, as a result of adding the solar system. Several states have prohibited this tax. Look up the de
tion). If you are not exempt, contact your tax assessor to determine the rate, which is typically somewhere betw

certainty, even when all of the details of a proposed solar system are known.)
fficult to predict inflation rates 25 years or more into the future. Fortunately, this not a critical variable. What is
o the inflation rate of the cost of electricity from the grid--see Variable 13 below.

s is the biggest unknown. Historically, energy prices have generally risen faster than overall inflation. But how
king at. And how similar will the past be to the future? Will the growth of electrical demand outstrip the growth
l industry to reflect its real environmental costs? Will it reduce fossil fuel subsidies? I've seen estimates anywh
n the general inflation figure (Variable 12 above) but it's hard to say how much more. Perhaps the best approach
g results.

nus the removal & disposal costs. (Present value i.e. do not use the inflated price at the time of the sale here.)
anels is equal to their resale value at the end of the cycle, the total net cost is "0". If you assume that they have
sposal as a negative number. If the resale price (or tax benefit if donated to a charity) will exceed the remov
positive number.

y, nor for indirect subsidies

), you would need to add their
uired by law, their inclusion is

the calculations sheet.)

. This can be found on your

s, use the cost of the upper

e into account any special cost

l idea of the recent cost-perreadsheet. Use the
mately the same size (see
tts (Kw x 1000) for that

divided by 1,000. Residential

or found at
added. Explanations and
ugh this. Always use 1.0 for
needed the first 10 "Derate
rray will be shaded during
nd the Yearly AC Energy

k the technical specifications

you can adjust this figure
ls against productivity loss.)

year maximum).
Note 1:
d to 0 or upward to 2 or 3
s.

es/retail-priceplacement during the typical

ly. If you are using a shorter

or if you plan to trim the trees

arge $600 per visit, enter
ur neighbors (i.e. the right to

ons, and tilt angle of panel. If

ystem downtime, is already
nsert your estimate of the
d repairs, as these are free.
cian's visit divided by the

em in the event that a flood or

his figure, as it is a standard

this tax. Look up the details

ypically somewhere between

critical variable. What is much

erall inflation. But how much

mand outstrip the growth of
e seen estimates anywhere
erhaps the best approach is to

e time of the sale here.) If

u assume that they have no
y) will exceed the removal and