Propano

Ao

MBPD
Ao

2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

Miles de barriles por dia

Reporte A
12
3
4
5
6
7
8

Reporte B

40
23.8
26.1
26
34.8
29.3
31.3

21
24.8
25.6
24.8
32.9
33.6
33.1

Promedio
Anual
21
32.4
24.7
25.45
29.45
34.2
31.2
31.3

Tamao de planta intermedio materia prima

Proyectando
Ao
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025

Propano
TM/ao

Ao
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

Polipropileno
TM/ao
Tomando 10%
1104387
984008
98401
1123718
1141497
1157973
1173340
1187749
1201323
1214160
1226344
1237943

Propano
TM/ao
707939
1092248
832671
857954
992800
1152929
1051795
1055166

90%

90%

PROPANO
1400000
1200000
1000000

f(x) = 769054.892084778 x^0.164696252

R = 0.4838852234

800000
600000
400000
200000
0

52

Tamao minimo de planta

2500

Precio de producto
Ao
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

Ao
1
2
3
4
5

$/TM
1910
2015
2090
1765
1610

$/TM
1878

2000

f(x) =
R =

1500
1000

y 385,31x 20306 x 87922

R 0, 9587

500

0
0.5

1.5

Ingreso por venta

Ao

Ao
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025

P($/TM)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

Qv=Demanda
(TM/ao)
IV($/ao)
1878
107843 202528572
1878
126993 238492403
1878
145372 273009010
1878
162981 306078393
1878
179819 337700552
1878
195887 367875486
1878
211184 396603195
1878
225710 423883680
1878
239466 449716941
1878
252451 474102978
1878
264665 497041790
1878
276109 518533378
1878
286783 538577742
1878
296685 557174881
1878
305817 574324796
1878
314179 590027486
1878
321769 604282952
1878
328590 617091194
1878
334639 628452211
1878
339918 638366004

Precio de la materia prima propano

Fuente: http://www.indexmundi.com/es/precio
Ao
Ao
Precio ($/galon)
Precio ($/TM)
2006
1
1.02
10.99
18.00
2007
2
1.21
13.09
16.00
2008
3
1.41
15.30
14.00
2009
4
0.84
9.13
f(x
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00

18.00
16.00
14.00

2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

5
6
7
8
9
10
11

1.17
1.46
0.97
1.00
1.04
0.46
0.47

12.71
15.85
10.55
10.84
11.29
4.96
5.05

Proyectando el precio del propano

Ao
Ao
Precio ($/TM)
2006
1
14.21
2007
2
13.54
2008
3
12.88
2009
4
12.22
2010
5
11.55
2011
6
10.89
2012
7
10.22
2013
8
9.56
2014
9
8.90
2015
10
8.23
2016
11
7.57
2017
12
6.91
2018
13
6.24
2019
14
5.58
2020
15
4.92
2021
16
4.25
2022
17
3.59
2023
18
2.93
2024
19
2.26
2025
20
1.60

Datos de referencia
Iref($) 2007
Tref(TM/ao)
Iref($) ACTUAL

700000000
350000
741834793

10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00

Cantidad de materia prima P

Ao
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025

INDEX 2007
INDEX 2016
Alfa

525.4
556.8
0.6

Costos de produccion

Ao

f(x
R

12.00

Itotal
($/ao)
CTP($/ao)
Iv
2006 366050327
250251686
2007 403769722
276133275
2008 437880099
299483581
2009 468973845
320704602
2010 497471357
340083031
2011 523684268
357832644

202528572
238492403
273009010
306078393
337700552
367875486

TM/ao
107843
126993
145372
162981
179819
195887

2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025

547851360
570160382
590762021
609779232
627313685
643450361
658260900
671806089
684137756
695300217
705331409
714263780
722124989
728938467

374118375
389070945
402796227
415381502
426899782
437412890
446973703
455627825
463414852
470369343
476521583
481898174
486522508
490415145

396603195
423883680
449716941
474102978
497041790
518533378
538577742
557174881
574324796
590027486
604282952
617091194
628452211
638366004

211184
225710
239466
252451
264665
276109
286783
296685
305817
314179
321769
328590
334639
339918

Precio del polipropileno

2500
2000

f(x) = - 85x + 2133

R = 0.483827764

1500
1000
500
0
0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

dexmundi.com/es/precios-de-mercado/?mercancia=propano&meses=180
18.00

Precio unitario del propano

16.00
14.00
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00

f(x) = - 0.6634826135x + 14.8689202687

R = 0.3879451704

5.5

Precio unitario del propano

18.00
16.00
14.00

f(x) = - 0.6634826135x + 14.8689202687

R = 0.3879451704

12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00

tidad de materia prima Propano

MP (TM/ao)
121036
142528
163156
182919
201817
219851
237019
253322
268761
283334
297043
309887
321866
332980
343229
352614
361133
368787
375577
381502

Costo de materia prima

Ao
MP($/ao)
2006
1719371
2007
1930119
2008
2101208
2009
2234358
2010
2331293
2011
2393733
2012
2423399
2013
2422014
2014
2391299
2015
2332976
2016
2248766
2017
2140390
2018
2009570
2019
1858029
2020
1687487
2021
1499665
2022
1296287
2023
1079072
2024
849743
2025
610021

700000000
600000000
500000000
400000000

$/ao
300000000

10

12

500000000
400000000

$/ao
300000000
200000000
100000000
0
50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Tamao de planta (TM/ao)

300000

10

12

Iv
CTP

Iv
CTP

250000

anta (TM/ao)

300000

350000

400000