Development Domain Analysis

Agricultural Potential
Land Cover
Market Access
Crop Systems Modeling
Farm-gate Price Modeling
Spatial Analysis at IFPRI

ZHE GUO*, EMILY SCHMIDT, JAWOO KOO, RIA TENORIO

* GIS COORDINATOR (z.guo@cgiar.org)
Environment and Production Technology Division

International Food Policy Research Institute AAGW2010/NAIROBI

9 JUNE 2010
Overview
DOMAIN ANALYSIS

AAGW2010/NAIROBI | 9 JUNE 2010

Development Domain Analysis
 To use a set of domain criteria to identify focus area and
regions which have similarity or dissimilarity of conditions of
relevance to agricultural development.
 To capture and analyze the region patterns of agriculture
productivity and potentials.
– Ag-potential
– Land cover
– Market access

AAGW2010/NAIROBI | 9 JUNE 2010

Development domain analysis
 Development domains
o Existing: land cover * Rural Population *[Market access]
o Potential: Ag-potential (eg. LGP, NDVI) * Rural Population*[Market access]
 Further economic analysis (e.g. DREAM model)
potential cropland *rural existing cropland *rural
population density population density

Potential cropland
density are derived Existing cropland
from statistical density is derived from
variables (e.g. mean, Afri-cover datasets
min, max, standard and are classified into
deviation) of monthly high and low classes.
NDVI and classified The rural population
into high, med, low . density is classified
The rural population into high, med and low
density is classified classes. Domain
into high, med and low classes (2*3=6) are
classes. Development developed from the
domain classes are intersection of the two
developed from the variables.
intersection of the two
variables. AAGW2010/NAIROBI | 9 JUNE 2010
Domain Analysis
AGRICULTURAL POTENTIAL

AAGW2010/NAIROBI | 9 JUNE 2010

Ag-potential variables

AAGW2010/NAIROBI | 9 JUNE 2010

PLANTING
WINDOW
OF
RAINFED CROPS

SSA
MODIS
Greenness Up/Down
Season A/B
Weekly window

KATE SEBASTIAN k.sebastian@cgiar.org AAGW2010/NAIROBI | 9 JUNE 2010

Domain Analysis
LAND COVER

AAGW2010/NAIROBI | 9 JUNE 2010

Existing cropland variables

Globcover GLC2000
(2005) (2000)

MODIS
(2001) Africover
(~2000)

AAGW2010/NAIROBI | 9 JUNE 2010

AAGW2010/NAIROBI | 9 JUNE 2010
Existing cropland variables

AAGW2010/NAIROBI | 9 JUNE 2010

Domain Analysis
MARKET ACCESS

AAGW2010/NAIROBI | 9 JUNE 2010

Market access

AAGW2010/NAIROBI | 9 JUNE 2010

Biophysical Evaluation
CROP SYSTEMS MODELING

AAGW2010/NAIROBI | 9 JUNE 2010

SIMULATED
CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACTS ON
CROP YIELD

2000 and 2050

DSSAT 4.5
Maize
Subsistence
FutureClim 1.0
MIROC 3.2 (IPCC4)
A2 SRES

TIM THOMAS t.s.thomas@cgiar.org AAGW2010/NAIROBI | 9 JUNE 2010

ASSESSING
CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE
AND
COSTS OF ADAPTATION
IMPACT
Partial equilibrium ag. sector model
Base year 2005; projection to 2050
Model changes in crop area and yields
production, value of production,
food availability per capita,
child malnutrition and hunger impacts
DSSAT 4.02
Yield changes of staple crops
 By 2050, the decline in calorie availability
will increase child malnutrition by 20
percent relative to a world with no climate
change.
 Thus, aggressive agricultural productivity
investments of US$7.1–7.3 billion are
needed to raise calorie consumption
enough to offset the negative impacts of
climate change on the health and well-
being of children.
IFPRI Food Policy Report 21 “Climate change impact on
agriculture and costs of adaptation”

JERRY NELSON g.nelson@cgiar.org AAGW2010/NAIROBI | 9 JUNE 2010

 1965

SIMULATED
LONG-TERM
CHANGES IN
CROP YIELD

Rainfed 2000
Maize
SSA
DSSAT 4.5
1965-2000
Climate: CRU-Mashup
Soil: HC27

JAWOO KOO j.koo@cgiar.org AAGW2010/NAIROBI | 9 JUNE 2010

 Dekalb XL71 (USA, Hybrid) with 10 kg[N]/ha Long maturity (Generic, Traditional) with 10 kg[N]/ha
Cumulative
Dekalb
Probability XL71 (USA, Hybrid) with 40 kg[N]/ha
(%) Long maturity (Generic, Traditional) with 40 kg[N]/ha

100

80
SIMULATED
LONG-TERM
CHANGES IN 60
Cumulative
CROP YIELD Probablity
(%)
Count (1K cells)
40
Rainfed
1.6
Maize Dekalb XL71 (USA, Hybrid) with 10 kg[N]/ha
Ethiopia 20
Dekalb XL71 (USA, Hybrid) with 40 kg[N]/ha
DSSAT 4.5 Long maturity (Generic, Traditional) with 10 kg[N]/ha
1.2 Long maturity (Generic, Traditional) with 40 kg[N]/ha
1961-2000
Climate: CRU-Mashup 0
Soil: HC27
0.8

1.2
1.4

1.8
2.0

2.4
2.6

3.0
3.2

3.6

4.2

4.8

5.4

6.0
0.6

1.0

1.6

2.2

2.8

3.4

3.8
4.0

4.4
4.6

5.0
5.2

5.6
5.8

6.2
Cultivar: 0.8
Average Yield (t/ha)
- Traditional
- Hybrid
0.4

JAWOO KOO j.koo@cgiar.org AAGW2010/NAIROBI | 9 JUNE 2010

Estimating Farm Gate Prices
MAIZE PRICE MODELING

AAGW2010/NAIROBI | 9 JUNE 2010

Price modeling overview

Transport • Road networks

• Road types
•Ports locations
•Land cover types
cost surface • Border locations •Elevation and Slope

Fertilizer • Fertilizer landed price

• Bagging fee
•Regulation cost
•Storage cost
•Marketing Margins
delivery cost • Border crossing fee
• Loading cost

Maize • “Farm” and market locations

• Market maize price
• Farm to market transport costs
delivery cost • Border crossing fee

20
AAGW2010/NAIROBI | 9 JUNE 2010
Farm-gate maize price modeling

AAGW2010/NAIROBI | 9 JUNE 2010

IFPRI Spatial Ignite | 3 June 2010
SPATIAL ANALYSIS AT IFPRI

AAGW2010/NAIROBI | 9 JUNE 2010

SPATIAL 1991-2006
Neighbor’s Growth Effect (%)
ECONOMETRIC
ANALYSES

Recent Studies (2009-2010)

Accounting for spillover in household agricultural production
Is agricultural production spillover the rationale behind CAADP framework?
Poverty rate and government income transfers: a spatial simultaneous equation approach

JOHN ULIMWENGU j.ulimwengu@cgiar.org AAGW2010/NAIROBI | 9 JUNE 2010

AGRICULTURAL
WATER
MANAGEMENT
SOLUTIONS

SPAM
SWAT
EPIC

HUA XIE h.xie@cgiar.org AAGW2010/NAIROBI | 9 JUNE 2010

AGRICULTURE
AND
MALARIA
RISK

Maize, tree crops, and cattle

Household survey 2006 High Risk?:
7,426 households Cattle and
14,000 parcels Maize within
Geographically-weighted 2-km radius
regression
Low Risk?: No
Agriculture
within 2-km
radius

BEN WIELGOSZ b.wielgosz@cgiar.org AAGW2010/NAIROBI | 9 JUNE 2010

MODELING
ACCESSIBILITY TO
HEALTH CARE
SERVICES

Yemen
Gravity model
Accessibility
Hospitals
Rural health centers
Educational programs

JOSE FUNES j.funes@cgiar.org AAGW2010/NAIROBI | 9 JUNE 2010

DATA
VISUALIZATION

Tableau Public
http://tableausoftware.com

JAWOO KOO j.koo@cgiar.org AAGW2010/NAIROBI | 9 JUNE 2010