Name: Marlena Tyldesley

Election Prediction Sheet

Due: Wednesday, November 2, 2016 / Thursday, November 3, 2016

State Presidential Election Prediction

Copy and paste the table if you have multiple states

Candidate (Party)

Hillary Clinton (Dem)

Donald Trump (Rep)

Gary Johnson (Lib)

Popular Vote Count

2,425,310

1,479,710

219,480

Pop. Vote %

64.2%

39.17%

5.81%

Congressional Election Predictions

Copy and paste as many tables as you need
State, District Virginia, District 1
Candidate (Party)

Matt Rowe (D)

Rob Wittman (R-Incumbent)

Glenda Gail Parker (Ind)

Popular Vote %

37.1%

59.9%

3%

Popular Vote Count

285, 686

461,256

23,101

State, District Virginia, District 2

Candidate (Party)

Shaun Brown (D)

Scott Taylor (R)

Popular Vote %

53%

47%

Popular Vote Count

396,699

351,789

State, District Virginia, District 3

Candidate (Party)

Bobby Scott (DIncumbent)

Marty Williams (R)

Popular Vote %

95.8%

3.8%

Popular Vote Count

707,222

28,052

State, District Virginia, District 4

Candidate (Party)

Donald McEachin (D)

Mike Wade (R)

Popular Vote %

63%

39.6%

Popular Vote Count

474,956

298,544

State, District Virginia, District 5

Candidate (Party)

Jane Dittmar (D)

Tom Garrett (R)

Popular Vote %

44.1%

55.2%

Popular Vote Count

324,951

406,741

Period: 4

State, District Virginia, District 6

Candidate (Party)

Kai Degner (D)

Bob Goodlatte (RIncumbent)

Popular Vote %

30.6%

69.4%

Popular Vote Count

228,082

517,284

Directions
Respond to the Election Prediction prompts in cohesive paragraphs.
Include an Introduction to the assignment, your predictions and your strategy for approaching the
predictions
Include a Conclusion that looks at the implications of this prediction for future elections
All claims should be supported by data or analysis from credible sources.
Make sure to provide proper in-text citations for the demographic data and quotations you use.
You may combine districts or use one district as exemplifying traits of another, but be sure to
discuss similarities and difference between them,.
Prompts
1. Explain how demographic factors (2) in your districts will influence voting in the presidential
election. Explain how these same factors will influence voting in the congressional elections.
2. Describe how two key issues will influence presidential voting in your districts. Explain how the
candidates stances on these key issues will affect the outcomes of the congressional races. This may also
be a section in which you discuss the role of the media in these issues.
3. Describe how voter turnout in your state has changed over time for two different demographic
groups. Explain how the turnout rates of these groups have impacted election results in the past. How do
you expect voter turnout rates of these groups will influence elections in your state this year?
4. Explain how the presidential election will affect the congressional elections in your state.
Describe the most significant demographic difference between the 2 districts you chose. Explain how this
difference will influence voting patterns.

Virginia is a state where districts right next to each other have dramatically different demographics and
voting patterns. District 3 is 57% black, poor, and badly educated and will probably vote for Hillary
Clinton come election day. Right next to it is district 1, which is white, middle class, Trump town. To
attempt to predict the results of this election, I chose a few demographics that I thought were most
effective for predicting voters candidate preferences and used those to shift votes to certain candidates.
For the presidential race, I chose gender and race. I found the percentage of women and men who
support Clinton, Trump and Johnson, and combined that with the number of minority voters expected to
turn out to vote, who, as a whole, are expected to lean to the left (Caputo, Marc). For the congressional
races, I used race and education. I found the average percentage each partys candidate received in the
past 5 elections, then decided how accurate that was depending on whether the candidate was
incumbent, whether one party generally wins in a landslide, and whether the candidate has name
recognition (like Mike Wade, District 4s Henrico County Sheriff). If the candidates were new and the
race was tight, I looked at how large the minority population is, expecting districts with large ones to
lean left and small ones to lean right. I also look at the general level of education, expecting districts
with high levels to lean left and low levels to lean right. I used those predictions to shift the average
from the past 5 years around to meet this years election climate.

Explain how demographic factors (2) in your districts will influence voting in the presidential
election. Explain how these same factors will influence voting in the congressional elections.
Two demographic factors that will influence voting in this presidential election are gender and
education. According to Pew Research Center, 52% of women support Clinton, 36% support Trump and
4% support Johnson. Among men, 39% support Clinton, 43% support Trump and 8% support Johnson
(Presidential Polling Data - Presidential Gender Watch).

While Clintons numbers with male voters may look bad, she already has a leg up in Virginia where the
female population, 50.85%, is slightly larger than the male population, 49.15% ("2015 Population
Estimates." ) and a higher proportion of eligible female voters turnout on election; 69% of registered
women versus 65% of registered men (Voting Registration). The fact that women vote more is also an
advantage for Clinton because women tend to be more liberal and are more likely to be Democrats, a
gap that exists across all ages, from 18 to 85, and within all major racial, ethnic, and marital-status
segments of society. (Gallup, Inc. "Women More Likely to Be Democrats, Regardless of Age.") Simply
by nature of being a democrat, Clinton has an advantage in Virginia.
The candidates appeal to very different levels of education. Among white voters (of which Virginia has a
majority) without a college degree, 57% of voters support Trump compared with Clintons 36%. Among
white voters with a college degree, 52% of voters support Clinton versus Trumps 40% ("2. Voter
General Election Preferences" ). The largest education bracket in districts 1, 3, 4, 5 and 6 is citizens over
25 with only a high school diploma. In district 1, for example. which is 72.63% white, voters have
chosen the republican candidate in the last two presidential elections and will probably vote for Trump
this election season. The lower education of its citizens ties into other aspects of the district, like its
median household income of $77,184 and its incumbent congressional representative, Rob Wittman, of 9
years, all signs of a conservative district, and Trumps voting base.
Compare this to district 2, where the largest education bracket is citizens over 25 with some college. The
district is slightly more diverse, with a white population of 66.39%, an urban population that is almost
13 times that of its rural population and election results favoring President Obama in the last 2
presidential elections. These are all signs of a more liberal district and Clintons voting base.
Gender and education are both factors that will also affect congressional races this election season.
Women are more likely to vote than men and those with more education are more likely to vote than
those with less (Gallup, Inc. "How Do You Define "Likely Voters"?"). Both women and the well-

educated are also more likely to be left-leaning (Davis, Janel), and will skew this election toward
democratic candidates up and down the ballot.

Describe how two key issues will influence presidential voting in your districts. Explain how the
candidates stances on these key issues will affect the outcomes of the congressional races. This
may also be a section in which you discuss the role of the media in these issues.
Two key issues that will influence presidential voting in these districts are gender equality and taxation.
Gender equality is an issue that has been forced into conversation this election season time and again
following Trumps disrespectful comments and actions about women. In Virginia, those districts who
arent reading national newspapers are reading their small town ones, which have only been reporting on
Trumps woman issue for weeks leading up to this election. The Virginian-Pilot, a newspaper from
district 2, reported on Trumps tapes for a week straight, omitting headlines about any other major topics
from the race. The week consisted of Trump recorded having extremely lewd conversation about
women in 2005, Pence says he 'cannot defend' lewd remarks by Trump and Hampton Roads' GOP
congressional candidates still backing Donald Trump after comments about women (Virginian-Pilot).
The papers are strongly biased against Trump (though not necessarily for Clinton), and are helping
Clinton spread her advocacy for gender equality and propagate disgust at Trumps comments. These
small newspapers publish horserace journalism daily and mostly report on campaign scandals, leading
voters to believe these comments (or emails or tax returns or videos) are the most important issues of the
election.
Districts in Virginia are very different one to the next, but each have reason to be concerned with
taxation changes, whether they want to pay less or want someone else to pay more. In district 3, for
example, the median household income is $41,152 and the largest income bracket is $35,000 to $74,999.
In a district like this one, voters will support Clinton because they feel the rich should pay more and her
she supports them in that belief, saying We are going to tax the wealthy who have made all of the

income gains in the last 15 years (Wolfgang, Ben). In district 1, on the other hand, the median
household income is $77,184 and the largest education bracket is $75,000 to $149,000. This district
where people are still middle to upper middle class, but much more comfortable than in district 3, is a
solidly republican state that will probably go for Trump this election largely because they like his
trickle down economic plan and policies like it that help them save their money. Trump backs that
belief, saying that when taxes go up, you are going to lose people from the country, and oftentimes
these are the people who create the jobs. (Eavis, Peter)

Describe how voter turnout in your state has changed over time for two different demographic
groups. Explain how the turnout rates of these groups have impacted election results in the past.
How do you expect voter turnout rates of these groups will influence elections in your state this
year?
Both black and hispanic voter turnout has increased since the 2004 presidential election and will be vital
in this election. In 2004, 477 million black voters turned out to vote in Virginia, 49.6% of the voting
aged black citizens. In 2008, Obama raised huge enthusiasm across the country and that number shot up
to 686 million, 66.6% of voting age black citizens. It dipped slightly in 2012, dropping to 63.1%, but
remained much higher than it had in the past (Voting and Registration in the Election of November
2012). Black voters will have a huge hand in who wins the election this year if they turn out in the same
record numbers as they have in the last two elections, and Trumps comments toward black voters may
ensure that they do.
In 2004, 70 million hispanic voters turned out, 23.1% of voting aged hispanic citizens. Obama did not
raise the same kind of enthusiasm among hispanic voters as he did among black voters, and their turnout
dropped to 22.5%. In 2012, though, 103 million hispanic citizens voted, 27.5% of voting aged hispanic
citizens (Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2012). Continuing on that trend, hispanic

voters are expected to turn out in record numbers this year, in a powerful voting block that hasnt been
present in past elections.
This presidential election (and its candidates) has brought out voting groups that havent been prominent
in the past. According to Pew Research Center, Nearly one-in-three eligible voters on Election Day
(31%) will be Hispanic, black, Asian or another racial or ethnic minority, (Krogstad, Jens Manuel) so
both of these groups will have a large presence in this years election and many to come.

Explain how the presidential election will affect the congressional elections in your state. Describe
the most significant demographic difference between the 2 districts you chose. Explain how this
difference will influence voting patterns.
This presidential election in particular is going to have an enormous effect on the congressional elections
in Virginia. Because neither candidate is particularly popular with some of their parties normal voter
bases, many voters are expected to stay home. Staying home means not voting for president, but it also
means not voting for anything else, so theres a chance congressional elections wont see as many voters
this year as they have in the past. Districts 3 and 1 are good examples of one of the most significant
demographic differences in this years election: race. 57% of district 3s population is black, compared
with 19.95% of district 1s. District 3 is solidly Democratic, and its voter turnout should stay at about the
same levels as the last few elections because of that. As a majority Black district, its voter turnout is also
to stay at last elections levels because Trump has seriously alienated that community. Theyll be voting
against Trump as much as for Clinton. District 1, on the other hand, is a predominantly white district of
moderate republicans. They voted for Romney over Obama, though not by much, and are not likely to
be Trump supporters, but certainly arent Clinton supporters. Many voters in that situation are choosing
to simply sit this one out (Gutting, Gary). Their choice not to vote is going to skew the election in favor
of the Clinton supporters (or non-Trump supporters) who did vote, and will shift results to the left all the
way down the ballot.

Conclusion: implication of this prediction for future elections

This election has ungracefully shoved issues into the public eye that will affect the way our country
votes for years to come. We have a candidate with no political experience who denounces political
correctness running against a woman (!!!) with years of experience who was pushed far to the left during
her primary election. In short, we have the alt-right running against a compromise between a moderate
democrat and a socialist. This election, regardless of who wins, has put the extreme views of some
Americans (on both sides of the political spectrum) on the public stage, and that will change the parties
dramatically in elections to come as they try to accommodate their newfound voters.

Works Cited
Caputo, Marc. "Increase in Minority Voters Poses Problem for Trump in Florida." Politico PRO. N.p.,
n.d. Web. 02 Nov. 2016. <http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/08/increase-inminority-voters-poses-problem-for-trump-in-florida-104717>.
Davis, Janel. "Is Education Level Tied to Voting Tendencies?" PolitiFact. N.p., n.d. Web. 02 Nov. 2016.
<http://www.politifact.com/georgia/statements/2012/nov/05/larry-sabato/education-level-tiedvoting-tendencies/>.
Eavis, Peter. "Donald Trumps Plan to Raise Taxes on Rich: Just Kidding." The New York Times. The

New York Times, 11 May 2016. Web. 02 Nov. 2016.

<http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/12/upshot/donald-trumps-plan-to-raise-taxes-on-rich-justkidding.html?_r=0>.
Gallup, Inc. "How Do You Define "Likely Voters"?" Gallup.com. N.p., 23 May 2000. Web. 02 Nov.
2016. <http://www.gallup.com/poll/4636/how-define-likely-voters.aspx>.
Gallup, Inc. "Women More Likely to Be Democrats, Regardless of Age." Gallup.com. N.p., 12 June
2009. Web. 02 Nov. 2016. <http://www.gallup.com/poll/120839/women-likely-democratsregardless-age.aspx>.
Gutting, Gary. "Should Everybody Vote?" The New York Times. The New York Times, 24 Apr. 2016.
Web. 02 Nov. 2016. <http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/25/opinion/should-everybodyvote.html>.
"Presidential Polling Data - Presidential Gender Watch." Presidential Gender Watch. Center for
American Woman and Politics, n.d. Web. 02 Nov. 2016.
<http://presidentialgenderwatch.org/polls/womens-vote-watch/presidential-polling-data/>.
Virginian-Pilot. Virginian-Pilot. N.p., n.d. Web. 02 Nov. 2016. <http://pilotonline.com/>.
"Voting and Registration." Voting HotReport. N.p., n.d. Web. 02 Nov. 2016.
<http://thedataweb.rm.census.gov/TheDataWeb_HotReport2/voting/voting.hrml?
GESTFIPS=48&INSTANCE=Nov%2B2012>.
Wolfgang, Ben. "Clinton Promises to Tax the Rich to Pay for Multibillion-dollar Progressive Agenda."

Washington Times. The Washington Times, n.d. Web. 02 Nov. 2016.

<http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/aug/17/hillary-clinton-pushes-economic-planpromises-rais/>.
"2. Voter General Election Preferences." Pew Research Center for the People and the Press RSS. N.p.,
07 July 2016. Web. 02 Nov. 2016. <http://www.people-press.org/2016/07/07/2-voter-generalelection-preferences/>.
"2015 Population Estimates." U.S. Census Bureau. United States Census Bureau, n.d. Web. 02 Nov.
2016. <http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?
pid=PEP_2015_PEPAGESEX&prodType=table>.