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Economic activity in other Asian advanced economies closely integrated with Chinasuch
as Hong
Kong Special Administrative Region and Taiwan Province of Chinaweakened sharply
during the
first half of 2015, owing in part to steep declines in exports.
In Japan, growth came out significantly lower than expected during the fourth quarter,
reflecting in
particular a sharp drop in private consumption.
in the euro area, as strengthening domestic demand offset a weaker external impulse. Among
countries, growth was weaker than expected in Italy but the recovery was stronger in Spain.
Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at the levels prevailing during
February 2March 1, 2016. Economies are listed on the
basis of economic size. The aggregated quarterly data are seasonally adjusted.
but in a number of countries, such as Brazil, Colombia, and Russia, sizable currency
depreciations
have offset to a large extent the effect of lower commodity prices, and inflation has risen.
Across advanced economies, the Japanese yens appreciation (about 10 percent in real
effective terms)
was particularly sharp, while the U.S. dollar and the euro strengthened by about 3 percent and
2 percent,
respectively.
to safety and increased risk aversion, as well as actual and anticipated monetary policy
responses to generally
weaker inflation and growth expectations.
IN Europe, exposures to the commodity sector, and persistently low interest rates.
And in late January the Bank of Japan introduced a negative interest rate on marginal excess
reserves.
those with the highest shares tended to experience larger declines of export growth in 2015
relative to
201214.
These
developments reflect, in addition to the weakness
in commodity-related investment, the significant
exchange rate depreciation in many of these countries
and the impact of sanctions in Russia, as well as the
high sensitivity of capital spending and imports to
aggregate demand during periods of economic turmoil.
In spite
of the increased use of renewables and the decreased
use of oil as fuel, total greenhouse gas emissions have
increased because of the increase in demand for coal
(Figure 1.SF.5, panel 2). This increase has resulted from
higher growth in emerging market economies, where
coal intensity has risen.
Furthermore,
reforms have statistically significant medium-term
effects on employment and capital, which increase
by about 1 and 3 percent, respectively
Estimates obtained from the Global Projection Model (GPM) point to the need for
further policy rate hikes in Latin America and emerging Asia. The GPM estimates
assume that a number of emerging market economies in Asia also adopt other
measures to tighten monetary conditions, such as controls on credit growth.
This left
many households much more worried about future
income prospects than during previous periods
with similarly high unemployment rates (Figure
1.21). Persistently high unemployment (with more
than 40 percent of the unemployed out of work for
six months or more) may result in a permanent loss
of work skills. Active labor market policies could
help stem the rise in such structural unemployment,
as could measures to expedite the adjustment
in housing markets, given that weak housing
market conditions can interact negatively with skill
mismatches to raise unemployment.