Donald Trump does Canada a favour by axing Trans-Pacific Partnership: Walkom

The trade and investment deal never was good for Canada.
May it rest in peace.
By THOMAS WALKOM National Affairs Columnist
Tues., Nov. 22, 2016

Donald Trumps decision to effectively kill the Trans-Pacific

Partnership trade and investment pact is, on balance, good
news for Canada.
The U.S. president-elect did the deed Tuesday when he
confirmed, via YouTube video, that one of his first actions on
taking office in January will be to begin the process of
withdrawing from the deal.
The 12-country TPP is structured in such a way that an
American withdrawal, unless reversed by 2018, automatically
voids it.
Theoretically, the other parties to the arrangement Canada,
Japan, Mexico, Vietnam, Malaysia, Chile, Peru, Brunei, New
Zealand, Singapore and Australia could override that
provision and go ahead minus the U.S. But Japanese Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe scotched that idea Tuesday, noting that
the pact, as written, would be meaningless without American
participation.
Trumps announcement that he will honour his campaign
pledge and axe the TPP is bound to be described as another
victory for the dark forces of isolation. In fact, the TPP was
never a very good deal for Canada.

A study done for the federal Global Affairs department

estimates that, at best, the TPP would have boosted the
Canadian economy by slightly more than a tenth of a
percentage point thanks in large part to increased exports
to Japan.
But there would have been serious casualties along the way.
The government study estimates auto exports to the U.S.
would have declined by $3.6 billion.
The deal would have also whittled away at the supplymanagement system that protects dairy, poultry and egg
farmers. It would have increased the cost of leading-edge
drugs and, according to tech entrepreneur Jim Balsillie,
crippled Canadian innovation.
Balsillie, whose iconic BlackBerry once dominated the world
smartphone industry, called the TPP the worst thing in policy
Canadas ever done.
The Canadian government itself was never that keen on the
TPP. Given that Canada already has free trade deals with four
TPP countries, former prime minister Stephen Harper was
not anxious to join the talks.
In 2008, a spokesperson explained that Harper thought they
werent worth the trouble.
It was only when Ottawa realized that the TPP might supplant
the North American Free Trade Agreement that Canada

became alarmed. In 2012, both Canada and Mexico signed

onto the negotiations.
Upon assuming government in 2015, Justin Trudeaus
Liberals signalled that they favoured free trade in principle.
But officially at least, they remained steadfastly noncommittal
about the TPP. In part, thats because of the difficult domestic
politics surrounding the deal. In part, Ottawa was waiting for
the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.
While both Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton
said they opposed the TPP, past experience suggested she
would change her mind if she won. She didnt win. He did.
Now the TPP is to all intents and purposes dead. May it rest in
peace.
The Trudeau government is already pursuing new grails. It is
entering talks with China. It wants to resuscitate talks with
Japan.
Who knows? It may even apply to join the Chinese-dominated
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership talks taking
place among 16 Asian and Pacific countries.
Perhaps, if the federal government exercises humility and
concentrates on trade rather than economic integration,
something useful will come from all of this although it is
hard to imagine Canada being more open to Chinese and
Japanese imports than it is.

Meanwhile, Ottawa might want to offer Trump a secret word

of thanks. By killing a flawed trade and investment deal, he
has relieved the Trudeau government of having to make that
decision itself.
And he has reminded us again that while economists and
experts may worship at the altar of free trade, many voters,
including those who elected this crafty demagogue, do not.
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2016/11/22/donald-trump-does-canada-a-favour-byaxingtrans-pacific-partnership-walkom.html