Sage Castiglione

To: Democratic National Party, Libertarian Party, Republican Party (GOP).

Polling Misrepresentation and Turnout Expectations
Political polling is a year-round practice done by anyone from statisticians to members of
a political party that want to be able to appeal to a constituency, or base of voters. Proper polling
can make the difference of an election, and can potentially result in the shifting the direction of a
country for an entire four years. One could say the 2016 Election made every statistician or
political polling representative in history roll over in his or her grave; as the numbers represented
in polling just prior to the election were not measurable to the actual outcome of the election.
Despite the fact that polling for political elections does come with a statistical margin of error,
we will explore whether or not these polls are reflective of the constituency of the United States,
and interpret polling with turnout from previous elections. The use of polls as an accurate
representation of how to conduct campaign strategies is unlikely to be a strong usage of
resources in many cases in which a populous candidate is present without the measurement of
likelihood of voting.
Methodology
Much of the evidence that will be explored in this paper will come through analysis on
polling conducted by pollsters that receive an A- or higher accuracy rating from FiveThirtyEight,
which is the statistical analysis website ran by Nate Silver, a statistician who not only has
received four honorary doctoral degrees from Amherst among other reputable colleges, but he
has properly predicted 49/50 states in the 2008 Election. Of the Pollsters, we will use ABC
News/Washington Post polls, which received a grade of A- with a 75% race correctly estimated,
Monmouth University which received a grade of A+ with an 85% race correct rate, among others

to be mentioned later. We will pull these specific polls and their results from RealClearPolitics,
which is a website that compiles lists of polls from various times across the election season.
These polls will then be compared to the actual election results from the 2016 election, and
compared with 2008 election and its respective polls and turnout. There will also be an analysis
of polling data from the primaries of political parties, primarily the Democratic primary this
cycle, as both opponents to Hillary Clinton displayed candidacies that could be classified as
populous.
Analysis

Michigan Democratic Primary, March 2016

60
50
40
30
20
10
0

Monmouth Poll
Bernie Sanders

Primary Election
Column1

Michigan, a state in the Northern

part of the Midwest United States and member of the collective group of the states known as the
Rust Belt was in a stunning upset, won by President-Elect Donald Trump. Michigan, which
had gone to Democrats in the presidential election since Bill Clintons winning in 1992, was a
state that pundits across America had safely given to Hillary Clinton in 2016. A Fox 2 Detroit
poll on November 6th, two days prior to the election, had Clinton polling ahead by 5% with a
3.1% margin of error giving her a 2% safe lead. As it holds on November 18th, 2016, President
Elect Donald Trump holds a .3% lead across the state from CNNs live counting website.

Statistical improbabilities can occur, but was this instance in Michigan in the general election a
statistical improbability or a polling failure?

Michigan Primary polling done by Monmouth in the Democratic Primary had Hillary
Clinton polling ahead of Bernie sanders by 12%, with a 5% margin of error, resulting in a 7%
seemingly safe lead. This poll, conducted on March 7th 2016, came one day before the March 8th
primary with resulted in Bernie Sanders winning with a 1.4% difference between himself and the
former Secretary of State. Both Donald Trump, as well as Bernie Sanders ran political campaigns
based upon the principal that the corporations and establishment politics were screwing over the
citizens or the little guys. Populism as defined by Princeton is thepoliticaldoctrinethat
supportstherightsandpowersofthecommonpeopleintheirstrugglewiththeprivilegedelite.
Therehavebeenfewcampaignsinthelasttwodecadesthatemphasizethisbelief,buttwo
politicalcampaignscomealongcampaigningagainsttheelite,andsuddenlytwostatistical
improbabilitieshappensuggestsmorethanabychanceincident.

Election Turnout 1996-2016 Presidential Election

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1996.0

2000.0

2004.0

Democrat

2008.0
GOP

2012.0
Overall

2016.0

Voterturnoutendedupbeing

detrimentaltothedemocratsthiselection.MichaelReganofPBSreportsthatthevoterturnout
forSecretaryClintonwasnotwhatitwasforObamain2012,whilePresidentElectTrumpheld

histurnoutfromMittRomneyin2012.Infact,RobertAlexander,apoliticalscienceprofessorat
OhioNorthernUniversity,concludedthat[therewas]depressedturnoutinlargercities,witha
turnoutspikeinruralcities.ItcertainlywasmoreconsequentialforHillaryClintonthanitwas
DonaldTrump(Regan).Wisconsinstotalvoterturnoutcamein3%lessthanitdidin2012,
andthisstatewenttoDonaldTrump.InMilwaukee,thevoterturnoutwassignificantlylower
thanin2012with40,000lessvotes(INVEISS).AsofNovember21,2016,HillaryClintonis
downaround27,000votesinthestate(CNN).WiththatsuppressedturnoutinMilwaukeein
mind,thesuppressedvotearoundotherleftsidedcitiescouldbethedifferencebetweenClinton
takingthestateornot.InWayneCounty,MI,whichhousesthecityofDetroit,votingwasdown
over35,000perMichiganLivesrealtimecomparisoncounter(Gibbons).
Nationally

Source: CNN (turnout)

2012 vs 2016 Turnout for Two Major Political Parties

Trump compared to Romney

Clinton compared to Obama

0
2012

50000000
Column1

100000000

Thepopularvoteshowed

lowerturnoutfortheDemocraticcandidateaswell.AsofNovember22,2016,HillaryClinton
hasjustover63,500,000votes.PresidentBarrackObamain2012pulledinjustunder65,500,000
totalvotes(CNN2012).Comparatively,MittRomneypulledcloseto61,000,000whileDonald
Trumphasaccumulatedover62,000,000.Whiletherepublicancandidate(nowpresidentelect)
stillhaslesstotalvotesthanthedemocraticcandidate,thetrendshowsahighertotalturnoutfor
PresidentElectTrumpthanhispredecessor,andlowerforHillaryClintonwhencomparedtoher
predecessor.Whatisthepurposeofaddressingvoterturnoutwhenrelatedpolling?Common
pollingmethodsusuallyinvolvecallinganindividualinhisorherownhomeandinquiringthe
questionsthatthepollsterwishestoask,unlikeexitpollstheydonotinvolveseekingpeopleon
thestreetoratanelectionsite.Ofthemethodsofpollsthatwehaveaccessed(fromtheprimary
electiontogeneralelection),noneofwhichwereexitpolls.Whatthesepollscannotproperly
address,isvoterturnout.Inanexitpoll,whichmanynewsoutletsusetopreemptivelycall
electionsifthemarginiswide,allofthosewhoparticipateareexitingthevotingstation.The
standardpollingmechanismusedthroughouttheelectioncycleshouldinsteadbereadasif
thesepeoplegoandvote,thisiswhattheelectionwouldlooklike.Thepollspresentedthat

showedClintonwithasafelead,allpointedtotheconclusionthatshewouldwin.Herinability
tobringoutsupportwasnotrepresentedinthepolls,herinabilitytomakevoterswanttocome
outandshowtheirsupportcouldnothavebeenrepresentedinpollsofwhowouldyouvotefor
ofthe24candidateswewillaskyouabout?
EnthusiasmandElections
Answeringapollingcallisonething,leavingthecomfortofonesownhometopledge
supportisanentirelylongerandmorestrenuousprocessespeciallyconsideringthelinesthatcan
existonelectionday.PresentedisanimageofanaverageDonaldTrumprallycourtesyofTruth
Feed.TheBlazereportedthatDonaldTrumpwouldhaverallysizesof10,000attendeesormore,

Figure 1

Source: Taylor Gripple from Twitter - (Hillary Clinton

rally- Des Moines)

Source: The Gateway Pundent ( Donald Trump

rally Dallas, TX)

withPresidentObamaboastinghisnumbersin2008(anelectionObamawoninalandslide)to
beabout50,000100,000.RussiaToday(aRussianGovernmentservicedmediaoutlet)reported
thatHillaryClintonseesanaverageattendanceofjustover13001400onaverageinherrallies.
ApicturepostedtoTwittershowsoneoftheseralliesinDesMoines.ThecountywithDes
MoinesinitaccordingtoCNN,with99%ofthevoteinfromIowa,hasHillaryClintonleading

thepopularvoteby12%.Withthisknown,onecanconcludethatthisspecificareaisnotvery
rightleaningifatall,anddespitethatHillaryClintondidnotdrawinacrowdmuchlargerthana
schoolgymnasium.

Conclusion
Fromthepreponderanceoftheevidence,pollingdoesnotlooktoaccuratelyreflectthe
turnoutofanelection,especiallyonewithpopulistcandidatessuchasSenatorBernieSanders
andPresidentElectDonaldTrump.HillaryClintonsperformanceinpollsjustdaysbeforean
electionshowclearlythatdespiteaccuratepollingdata,thepollsdonothaveacrossovertothe
actualelection.BernieSandersover1%winintheMichiganprimarydespitetrailingSecretary
Clintonby13%ormoreinthepollsjustdaysbeforeprovethatnotonlyintheGeneralElection
didsheunderperform,butsheunderperformedespeciallyinworkingclassareasintheprimaries
aswell.Thiscanleadustooneconclusionthatastandardpolishedestablishmentcandidate
cannotdrawpeopleinthesamewayamovementdoes,suchasinPresidentObamascasein
whichheranonHopeandshowedalighttoatunnelofanacademicallyrecognizedpoor
Presidencyprior,orBernieSandersinwhichheranagainsttheestablishmentandthebig
donors.DonaldTrumpranagainstthepoliticaleliteaswell,beingtheoutsidebusinessmanwho
ateverystepofhiscampaignboastedhisselffunding.Ofthethreeoncepresidentialcandidates
mentioned(Sanders,Obama,Trump),oneofwhichhadbeatenHillaryClintoninaDemocratic
Primaryin2008,andgoneontowinthepresidencyfortwotermswithcommandingvictories.
TheotherbeatHillaryClintoninageneralelectionwithhigherthanexpectedturnout,and
turnoutmuchhigherthantheRepublicanPartyprecedingcandidateMittRomney.Bernie

Sanders,whilenotvictoriesdidhavecomebackvictoriesthatdefiedanypollsterinMichigan
cameandgaveClintonasecondstrikeinwhatwouldsoonbeathirdforher,andprovedthat
pollsterscouldgooutofbusinessiftheirbusinesswaspurelybasedonaccuracy.Thereisone
alternativeconclusionwhichinvolveslookingatRealClearPoliticsovertimepollingdata
betweenthetwoGeneralElectioncandidatesandconcludingthatwiththevarious5+point
swingsduringthecycleonecouldneverbeabletoproperlypredicttheelection.Whilethisclaim
mayhavemerit,itisonethatcannotbeempiricallymeasuredandthuswillnotbeexploredin
thispaper.

Works Cited
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Communication, Mitchell Research and. Clintons Lead Increases to 5% in
Michigan. Poll. Detroit: Fox 2 Detroit, 2016.
Gibbons, Lauren. See how voter turnout changed in every Michigan county
from 2012 to 2016. 11 November 2016. News Report .
INVEISS, MAIJA. "Madison sees record-breaking voter turnout on Election
Day ." 16 November 2016. The Badger Herald. 21 November 2016.
Lucas, Fred. "How Do Trump Crowd Sizes Really Compare to Obamas 2008
Crowds?" 14 March 2016. The Blaze. 25 November 2016.
Monmouth University. MICHIGAN: TRUMP, CLINTON IN FRONT. Poll. West Long
Branch: Monmouth University, 2016.
Regan, Michael D. "What does voter turnout tell us about the 2016
election? ." 20 November 2016. PBS . 21 November 2016.

Russia Today. "The one place where Hillary Clinton struggles with numbers ."
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Wallace, Gregory and Robert Yoon. "Voter turnout at 20-year low in 2016 ."
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