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Alyssa Randall
Department of Geography
East Carolina University
Abstract
This study investigates sea-level rise literacy and perception of risk
occurring along the entire Atlantic, Pacific, and Gulf coasts of the
United States (NOAA, 2012). Scientists target global climate change as
the key cause of the accelerated global sea-level rise that we are
presently experiencing. While local mean sea-level might be falling in
some areas, overall, eustatic sea-level is rising. Research concludes
that changes in our global climate are directly related to changes in
sea-level (Justus et al, 2006).
Anthropogenic climate change involves human activities that
affect the heat and energy exchange balance between Earth, the
atmosphere and space. Activities such as burning fossil fuels increase
the amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases
such as methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, and water vapor. These gases
block infrared radiation from being able to be reflected and absorbed
back into space, causing a warming of our atmosphere (Justus et al,
2006). When infrared radiation comes in contact with greenhouses
gases, there is a change in molecular bonds that causes vibrations.
These vibrations are the absorption of infrared energy, which produces
kinetic energy that can be transferred and causes a general heating of
the atmosphere (Justus et al, 2006). This trapping of heat is referred to
as the greenhouse effect. It is estimated that carbon dioxide and
methane have been responsible for the increase of infrared radiation
remaining within our atmosphere. Within the past 100 years, Earth has
seen a global atmospheric temperature rise of 0.3 to 0.6C (Barber et
al, 2008). Specifically, over the North Atlantic Ocean the temperature
is increasing at a rate of 1C per every 100 years (Barber et al, 2008).
There is no sign of carbon dioxide reductions in the near future, so we
can expect to continue to see a rise in global temperatures (Barber et
al, 2008).
A continued rise in our global climate will play a dramatic role in
sea-level rise. Sea-level rise is defined as the vertical increase in sealevel as opposed to the horizontal change of the mean high tide line
(Barber et al, 2008). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administrations records show that sea-level rise has been steadily
rising at a rate of 1 to 2.5 millimeters per year since 1990. This is
much greater than the mean sea-level rise rate for the last several
thousand years. The three main causes of this rise are thermal
expansion brought on by the warming of ocean water, the loss of land
based ice such as glaciers and ice caps due to melting and subsidence
and land movement (NOAA, 2011).
Oceans have an enormous heat storage capacity and will absorb
heat brought on by global climate change and result in expansion
(COSEE, 2010). This greater value in water volume causes sea-level
rise. Also, as atmospheric temperatures begin to rise there is an
increase in ice and snow melt (COSEE, 2010). The melting of floating
ice does not affect sea-level rise, but when the ice that currently sits
on top of landmasses melts, we will see an increase in sea-level
region. These SLR literacy rates and risk perceptions can be used to
help determine both the knowledge and concern level of current North
Carolina residents about sea-level rise and its likely impacts.
Curriculum information can be used to design education programs that
aim to raise awareness within the public school system. The data can
also be used to help policy makers and town planners when making
adaption and mitigation plans for the future.
Sea-level Rise in Eastern North Carolina
Eastern North Carolina is already seeing the effects of sea-level
rise and remains highly vulnerable. In 2004 the State of the Coast
report wrote that North Carolina has one of the highest rates of sealevel rise in the world, ranging between 12 and 17 inches a century
(Barber et al, 2008). If current rates continue, we could see a one-foot
inundation in as little has 35 years (APCCC, 2009). The Albemarle and
Pamlico Sound region has already been identified as one of the top
three most threatened areas from sea-level rise in the United States
(NCSG, 2011). The Albemarle-Pamlico estuarine system (APES) is the
second largest in the United States and has an extensive barrier island
chain, and over 2,300 square miles of land is vulnerable to 1-meter
sea-level rise (NCSG, 2011). Figure 1.1 shows the sea-level rise
vulnerability in the APES. Sea-level rise in the Albemarle-Pamlico
Sound will lead to a large amount of coastal erosion (Riggs et al, 2003).
system. A one-foot rise in sea-level would greatly flood the AlbemarlePamlico Sound, devastating the nurseries and fisheries that exist within
its system. A great deal of flooding will also cause economic losses, a
loss of urban infrastructure, and a collapse of barrier island segments.
Specifically, the Albemarle peninsula could face saltwater intrusion, a
rising water table, an introduction of invasive species, and major shifts
in species distributions (Barber et al, 2008).
North Carolina beaches are a prime vacation spot making tourism
a huge part of our economy. In 2007, the Department of Economics at
Appalachian State University conducted research that calculated the
potential economic loss on coastal Carolina for sea-level rise. By the
year 2080, there may be lost beach revenue of $3.9 billion. Property
loss may be around $6.9 billion and property loss due to permanent
inundation could be anywhere from $242 million to $2.7 billion. That is
a hard hit on North Carolinas economy (ASU, 2007).
It is clear that sea-level rise will have a significant impact on North
Carolina and the Albemarle-Pamlico Sound region. Policy makers
should be motivated by research to start mitigation efforts before we
start to experience the more serious effects. Land management
projects can be put in place to reduce the amount of potential erosion
and loss of land. There are policy measures such as setback
regulations that encourage the gradual retreat from ocean and
estuarine waters. North Carolina law prohibits the use of hardened
10
11
12
13
danger and how this then influences their behavior (Mosely, 2013). A
number of factors can influence a persons perception to a specific risk,
such as personality, previous experience, the ability to exercise control
over the particular risk, the degree to which scientific information
becomes part of public knowledge, and ones friends, family and
neighbors view and respond to risk. Risk is defined in ways that reflect
moral, political, socio-economic, and cultural situations (Mosely, 2013).
The survey seeks to gauge risk perceptions by asking questions that
reference whether or not sea-level rise is occurring, will it affect them,
to what degree will it affect them, their level of concern, how it will
affect different levels of the economic sector, rates of rise,
implementation of mitigation plans, impact on inland counties, and
whether or not anything can be done to minimize the impacts. All
questions are strictly opinions and measure the level of overall concern
and belief. Measuring risk perception is critical to this research because
in order to implement changes in education, mitigation, and public
policies we must first understand how the general public perceives the
potential risk caused by sea-level rise.
Research at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill has
been conducted that focuses on sea-level rise risk perceptions among
adult residents of North Carolinas Outer Banks region (Barber et al,
2009). The significance of their research was to understand residents
perceptions in order to structure and implement educational efforts
14
and polices. The aim of the research was to spark more in-depth
analyses of public perceptions, motivate citizens, and inspire
government action. Similar questions were used to produce the Sealevel Rise Literacy and Perceived Risk in Eastern North Carolina survey.
The goal is to be able to compare our findings with that of the
University of North Carolinas and identify similarities and differences.
Their study showed uncertainties in the causes of sea-level rise, and
over half of their 232 participants felt uninformed on the topic of sealevel rise. A large majority of their sample size believed that sea-level
rise was occurring in the Outer Banks region of North Carolina. When
discussing funding options, 84% of participants believed that the
government should consider sea-level rise when making decisions for
the future. Their analysis found correlations between education level
and perceptions of sea-level rise as a risk. Residents with higher levels
of formal education typically had a better understanding of sea level
rise and its threats. The data suggests that educational efforts should
focus on residents whose highest level of completed education is high
school or GED. When analyzing study responses, a few correlations
were found between age and
perceptions about sea level rise (Barber et al, 2008). The findings of
this study can be compared to the results of the sea-level rise literacy
and perceived risk in eastern North Carolina survey.
While research has been done that look at risk perceptions, very
15
little research has been done in Eastern North Carolina regarding sealevel rise literacy. A study conducted by the Yale Project on Climate
Change studied climate change literacy rates in India (Leiserowitz et al,
2012). Their research examined the current state of public climate
change awareness, beliefs, attitudes, policy support, and behaviors in
India, as well as measure public observations of changes in local
weather and climate patterns. They studied how different factors such
as news access, news awareness, environmental awareness and civic
engagement affected climate change literacy levels. Their findings are
intended to contribute to both scientific and public understanding
about climate change and provide useful information for the Indian
climate change community (Leiserowitz et al, 2012). This study allowed
us to see the format of science literacy questions. Some climate
change literacy questions from this study were then modified to
measure sea-level rise specifically.
Methods:
For this study, a survey-based approach was used to gauge the
publics perception of sea-level rise in North Carolina. The survey was
designed using some of the same questions as UNCs risk perception
survey mentioned earlier (Barber et al, 2008). It was important that the
survey included questions that gauged both SLR literacy and risk
perception. Questions from a research study done in India by the Yale
Project on Climate Change Communication, regarding climate change
16
17
level rise they too will be affected because they are tied to state
economic investments in the coastal region and tourism revenue that
goes back to the state through taxes.
18
19
20
21
16 17 12 13
61
-7
0
21
-3
0
Re
sp
on
s
Number of Respondents
52
41
-5
0
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Age Class
22
Coastal
Inland
51
-6
0
71
-8
0
18
-2
0
31
-4
0
40
35
35
30 25
25
17 15
20
13
10 8
Number of Respondents 15
10
4 2 5
5 1
1
1 2
0
0 0
Age Class
Sex of Respondents
36%
Male
Female
64%
23
Sex by Residency
50
45
40
35
30
25
Number of Respondents
20
15
10
5
0
47
43
Male
24
Coastal
25
Female
Inland
24
11% 2%
Trade School
Associate's Degree
25%
47%
Bachelor's Degree
Graduate Degree
13%1%
1 3
0 0
Re
sp
on
s
o
N
15
10
10
9
8
Coastal
Inland
D
eg
re
e
15
Number of Respondents
41
G
ra
du
at
e
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
25
19
12
Re
sp
on
s
Number of Respondents
47
e
$2
5,
00
0$5
0,
00
0
$1
00
,0
00
or
m
or
e
50
40
30
20
10
0
Income Class
Inland
Re
sp
on
s
Number of Respondents
Coastal
26
27
Percent
Valid Percent
Cumulative
Percent
Valid
None
31
22.3
22.3
22.3
Very Litte
73
52.5
52.5
74.8
Moderate
32
23.0
23.0
97.8
2.2
2.2
100.0
139
100.0
100.0
Expert
Total
28
14
Somewhat Certain
43
Not Certain
32
Don't Know
50
6%
Somewhat Certain
33%
Not Certain
33%
Don't Know
28%
14%
29%
Somewhat Certain
Not Certain
14%
Don't Know
43%
30
9%
High
Moderate
Low
35%
56%
32%
25%
High
Moderate
Low
42%
31
Low
No Response
21
23
21
65
Trade School
Associate's Degree
18
Bachelor's Degree
16
18
35
Graduate Degree
15
56
54
29
139
Moderate
Total
Total
Moderate
No Response
Total
Low
12
14
18
15
47
$25,000-$50,000
11
24
$50,000-$100,000
17
14
37
$100,000 or more
10
19
56
54
29
139
$0-$25,000
Income
Total
25%
Yes
No
75%
33
Yes
No
47%
53%
Income
Total
No
No Response
10
12
$0-$25,000
23
24
47
$25,000-$50,000
15
24
$50,000-$100,000
25
12
37
$100,000 or more
15
19
88
51
139
Total
34
comfortable with two issues or less were listed having a low level of
environmental awareness. Overall, the level of environmental
awareness is moderate (41%) to low (42.4%). Only 16.5% of
participants had a high level of environmental awareness. Figure 18
and 19 compare environmental awareness for coastal and inland
respondents. The level of environmental awareness is greater among
coastal respondents. Only 47.83% of respondents with a high school
diploma or less reported having a high to moderate level of
environmental awareness, while 67.14% of respondents with a higher
education listed having the same high to moderate level. A positive
correlation does exist between environmental awareness and
education. Females had a greater level of environmental awareness
(58.89%) than males (55.10%). Table 5 shows the cross tabulation
between environmental awareness level and income. As participants
income increase, so does the level of environmental awareness.
32%
21%
High
Moderate
Low
47%
35
13%
High
Moderate
52%
Low
35%
Income
Total
Moderate
Total
Low
No Response
12
$0-$25,000
11
31
47
$25,000-$50,000
14
24
$50,000-$100,000
15
13
37
$100,000 or more
19
23
57
59
139
36
32%
25%
High
Moderate
Low
43%
37
23%
High
Moderate
Low
46%
31%
38
The general public does not have prior knowledge regarding House Bill
819 in North Carolina. This suggests that SLR literacy is low when it
comes to the governmental policy aspect of the research topic. Of the
15 people who had heard of NC House Bill 819, three were from coastal
counties and 12 were from inland counties. This finding seemed
somewhat abnormal since coastal respondents had a higher level of
news access and news access. Coastal management policies would
have a greater impact on those participants living in coastal counties.
12%
No Response
6% 2%
Yes
No
N/A
80%
Percent
Valid Percent
Cumulative
Percent
No Response
.7
.7
.7
123
88.5
88.5
89.2
Disagree
10
7.2
7.2
96.4
Not Sure
2.9
2.9
99.3
N/A
.7
.7
100.0
139
100.0
100.0
Agree
Valid
Total
39
11%
4% 11%
Agree
Disagree
Not Sure
N/A
75%
40
41
This may suggest that coastal residents accept the fact that they live
in a high-risk area and have come to term with it somewhat.
Level of Worry
Frequency
Percent
Valid Percent
Cumulative
Percent
Valid
No Response
.7
.7
.7
Very Worried
4.3
4.3
5.0
Somewhat Worried
56
40.3
40.3
45.3
47
33.8
33.8
79.1
14
10.1
10.1
89.2
Don't Know
15
10.8
10.8
100.0
139
100.0
100.0
Total
42
11% 1% 10%
10%
24%
No Response
23%
No Response
2%
29%
Yes
No
Not Sure
46%
Participants were asked whether they believed the rate of sealevel rise was increasing. These results can be found in Figure 25. A
majority of coastal respondents left this question blank, making it
appear that more inland respondents believe that the rate of sea-level
rise is increasing. From a cross tabulation, it is determined that 70.15%
of coastal respondents believe that the rate of sea-level rise is
increasing, while 87.5% of inland respondents do.
11%
Yes
10%
No
No Response
79%
44
done. More females believed that action should be taken. This question
suggests that people would like to have a plan for mitigating the
affects of sea-level rise. This leads us to our next questions regarding
funding for these types of mitigation projects.
21%
No Response
1%
Agree
Disagree
Not Sure
6%
N/A
72%
45
1%
29%
30%
Disagree
Not Sure
N/A
40%
46
21%
Disagree
Not Sure
N/A
12%
68%
47
1%
32%
26%
Disagree
Not Sure
N/A
41%
48
people know about an issue that is ultimately going to affect them, the
more they will be willing to help fund programs that are going to
reduce loss.
2%
25%
33%
Disagree
Not Sure
N/A
40%
49
50
51
52
53
54
become involved will help with policy making and mitigation efforts,
which will help lead us to a better tomorrow.
References
55
The Albemarle-Pamlico Conservation and Communities Collaborative. (2009). Sealevel Rise and Population Growth in North Carolina. The Albemarle-Pamlico National
Estuary Program.
The Albermarle- Pamlico National Estuary Program. "Climate Ready Estuaries: A
Blueprint for Change. The Nicholas Institute of Environmental Policy Solutions Duke
University, 2010. Web. 11 Sep 2012.
<http://portal.ncdenr.org/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=1f349a68-43a5-4989-83029928ae8d5774&groupId=61563>.
Appalachian State University (2007, June 22). North Carolina Coastal Economy
Vulnerable To Sea-level Rise. ScienceDaily. Retrieved February 24, 2012, from
http://www.sciencedaily.com /releases/2007/06/070622184644.htm
Barber, J., Bellis, J., Blackmore, A., Crabtree, T., Keller, M., Lamb, N., Richardson, D.,
& Robbins, M. (2008). Perceptions of Sea-level Rise Among Adult Residents of North
Carolina's Outer Banks. University of North Carolina- Chapel Hill.
Centers for Ocean Sciences Education Excellence. (2010). Thermal Expansion and Sealevel Rise. University of Maine, Retrieved from
http://cosee.umaine.edu/cfuser/resources/tr_sea_level.pdf
Delaware Department of Environment and Natural Resource Control. "Delaware
Residents' Opinions on Climate Change and Sea Level Rise." Responsive Management,
2012. Web. 11 Sep 2012.
<http://www.dnrec.delaware.gov/coastal/Documents/SeaLevelRise/SLRSurveyReport.pd
f>.
Gore, B., Carey M., Hill T., Covi M. (2011). Sea-level Rise Vulnerability in the
Albemarle Pamlico Estuarine System. [Web Map]. Retrieved from
http://www.ecu.edu/renci/Focus/SeaLevelRise.html
Justus, J., & Fletcher, S. (2006). Global Climate Change. Congressional Research, The
Library of Congress, Retrieved from http://www.earthnews.org/NLE/CRSreports/06apr/IB89005.pdf
Kalo, J., & Clark, W. (2005). Legal tides. North Carolina Coastal Resources Law,
Planning, and Policy Center, Retrieved from
http://www.nccoastallaw.org/legaltides/lt_spring05.pdf
Kalton,G.(1983).IntroductiontoSurveySampling.BeverlyHills:SagePublications.
http://psychology.ucdavis.edu/rainbow/html/fact_sample.html
Leiserowitz,A.,&Thaker,J.(2012).Cliamatechangeintheindianmind.YaleProject
56
onClimateChangeCommunication,Retrievedfromhttp://environment.yale.edu/climate
communication/article/climatechangeindianmind
Mosely, William, Perramond, Eric, Hapke, Holly M, and Laris, Paul
(forthcoming 2013). Introduction to Human-Environment Geography:
Local Dynamics and Global Processes. Wiley-Blackwell.
National Academy of Sciences (1996). National Science Education Standards (Report).
National Academy Press, Washington, DC.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (2011, November 17). Sea-level
is Rising at an Increasing Rate. Retrieved from
http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Sea-level Trends. (2012).
Retrieved from http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml
North Carolina State Government. (2011, June 8). North Carolina Sea-level Rise Impact
Study. Retrieved from http://www.ncsealevelrise.com/
O'Connor, R., Bord, R., & Fisher, A. (1999). Risk perceptions, general environmental
beliefs, and willingness to address climate change. Society of Risk Analysis, 19(3), 461471. Retrieved from
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/seagrant/ClimateChangeWhiteboard/Resources/Uncertainty/M
ac1/GLSGNuncert49.pdf
Patterson, W. (2009). Rising Sea-level and its Effects. University of Saskatchewan.
Retrieved from http://geochemistry.usask.ca/bill/Courses/Climate/Coastal catastrophe
prt.pdf
Riggs, S., & Ames, D. (2003). Drowning the North Carolina Coast. North Carolina Sea
Grant, Retrieved from http://nsgl.gso.uri.edu/ncu/ncub03002.pdf
57
Budget
Funding by the 2013 NC Space Grant/ RESTEP to STEM Teacher
Education Scholarship
Supplies
Photocopying- $0.10 per page X 600 (200, 3 page surveys) = $60
TOTAL SUPPLIES EXPENSE= $60
Travel
Mileage Expenses
Wilmington 240 miles (55.5 cents/mile)= $134.00
Nags Head 260 miles (55.5 cents/mile)= $145.00
Duplin County 140 miles (55.5 cents/mile)= $78.00
TOTAL MILEAGE EXPENSES= $357.00
Lodging Expenses
Wilmington $100 X 2 nights = $200
Nags Head $100 X 2 nights= $200
TOTAL LODGING EXPENSES= $400
Meal Expenses
Wilmington $35/day X 2 days= $70
Nags Head $35/ day X 2 days= $70
TOTAL MEAL EXPENSES= $140
GRAND TOTAL= $957
58
Appendix A
Sea-level Rise Literacy and Perceived Risk in Eastern North Carolina
Survey
Please answer the following questions to the best of your ability. If you
are unable or uncomfortable answering any question please feel free
to answer not sure or leave the question blank. By completing this
survey you consent to the use of your data. Thank you for your time
and assistance.
Age:
Gender: Male
Female
Very Little
Moderate
Expert
No
Not Sure
No
Not Sure
Housing
____ Job Markets
Tourism
____ Agriculture
Property Values
____ Politics
Wildlife & Ecosystems ____ Fishing Industries
60
Not very
Please write down any suggestions you have for protecting Eastern
North Carolinas coast from sea-level rise:
If you have any other questions, comments, or concerns about sealevel rise in Eastern North Carolina please feel free to list them below:
62