Calculus POW #1

Alma Wolf
9/6/16
Problem
There is a group of eight friends sitting in a circle. They each have a coin that they flip
once. Each individual whose coin lands on heads stands up. If none of the people standing are
directly next to each other, the sequence is considered a win. If it is only performed once, what
is the probability that the group will have a win?
For this problem, the biggest challenge that immediately arises is the number of people.
With eight people and a two-sided coin, there is a very large number of possible outcomes.
However, once you get past this the real challenge is finding the number of wins. You
essentially have to write out or logically prove every possible win. We know that this problem is
asking for the probability, which we can represent through a fraction. The denominator is the
number of possible outcomes including wins and losses, and the numerator is the number of
possible wins. We also have the knowledge that if five or more people get heads, you cannot
win. To solve the problem, we need to find the n
umber of possible wins for four or less
people and the total number of possibilities for the scenario.

Process
My initial thought for solving this was to calculate 8!. However, it was immediately
brought to my attention that this would not work. 8! comes out to 40,320. This definitely seems
like too many possible solutions. That is because it does not account for the fact that each
person is only flipping a two-sided coin. After I realized this, I teamed up with Makayla, Emily,
and Ethan. We began brainstorming ways to solve the problem. Kyle helped us to understand
that you only need to solve 2^8 to find the number of possible outcomes. This comes out to 256.
So, we found that there are 256 possible solutions. This would be the denominator of the
fraction representing the probability. Next, we knew that we needed to find the number of
possible winning outcomes for zero, one, two, three, and four heads rolled. We could add these
up to find the numerator of the fraction. Working with this group, I found the possible outcomes
shown in Fig. 1. To find the number of possible wins for zero, four, and one head scenarios, we
simply thought logically about the possibilities.

Fig. 1
To find the number of possible wins for three heads, I worked independently. At first, I
thought the only way to find the right number would be to draw out each winning scenario. I
started doing this, but I only got to six before the obvious scenarios were drawn and I figured
there must be an easier way that ensured I would not miss one. I had heard from my peers that
the number was higher than this, so I did not think my answer was correct.
I had still not found the answer, but I had another question. What is the relationship of
winning vs. losing scenarios with three heads when their points are connected to make a
triangle inscribed in the circle? I began drawing circles on notecards with a compass, and
plotting points on their circumference that represented winning scenarios. Then, I remembered
a term associated with triangles from geometry: the circumcenter. This is the intersection point
of the perpendicular bisectors of each side of the triangle. I began using my compass to plot the
circumcenter onto each triangle. Interestingly, I found that the circumcenter of all winning
triangles was inside the
triangle, while the circumcenter of the losing triangles was o
utside the
triangles. You can see this illustrated in Fig. 2, Fig. 3, Fig. 4, and Fig. 5. This is due to the fact
that all winning triangles points are at least 2/6 of the circle away from each other, so they have
longer sides, while the losing triangles have shorter sides and the points are closer together.
Unfortunately, illustrating scenarios in this way did not lead me to an easy method to find the
number of possible wins for three heads, yet it was still an interesting tangent to explore.

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

At this point, I still did not know the number of possible wins for three heads so I began
working on that again. I tried to draw out all the scenarios, but I was still afraid that I was
missing some. It was just not an efficient method. However, then I thought of an idea. If you
assign heads to one person in the circle, there are only five possible places for put the second
heads coin that will procure a win. After you place the second one, there are three places for the
third heads coin. 3 * 5 = 15 . This makes it seem like there are 15 winning scenarios for three
heads in the circle. I thought about this for a long time, and it seemed to make sense. However,

I had my doubts so I kept thinking. I decided to draw out the patterns that I knew, and I counted
16. So, the method I had used before did not work. I have determined that there are two base
patterns, and rotating them around the circle produces eight versions of each. So, I found that
there are 16 possible wins for three heads.
After I had this answer, I checked over all the other numbers. It turned out that I had
made a mistake. I originally counted that there were 21 possible wins for two heads. I wrote out
all of the scenarios, and found that there are only 20. This was an important inaccuracy to catch.
Once I had the number of possible wins for zero through four heads, I added them up to
find the numerator. The total number of possibilities is the denominator, and this fraction is the
probability.

Solution
Eight people sit in a circle, and each flip a coin. If the individuals coin shows heads, they stand
up. There is a 47/256 chance that none of the people standing will be directly next to each
other. You can see the breakdown of the numerator in Fig. 6.

Fig. 6

Justification
I think that my solution is correct because of the process that I went through to find it. I found the
total number of scenarios, then narrowed them down to find the only the winning ones. I worked
in a group to figure out the first steps of the problem and how to continue solving it. I used
logical reasoning and a pencil and paper to work through each number. I then checked my
work, to make sure that I had not made mistakes. When I was uncertain about a number, I
asked peers or wrote out the scenarios myself. I think my solution is correct because I
meticulously worked through the problem step by step and found the best answer that makes
the most sense.